crime and the british
DESCRIPTION
Slides presented by Simon Atkinson at Criminal Justice Alliance rountable on campaigning during the run-up to 2015 General ElectionTRANSCRIPT
Crime
and the British Prepared for Criminal Justice
Alliance Roundtable:
Campaigning in the
run-up to 2015
Simon Atkinson
Assistant Chief Executive
22 November 2013
@SimonMAtkinson
2 2
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Theme One: Perceptions vs “Facts”
3 3
4 4
5 5
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Theme Two:
6 6
The “local” picture often differs from…
7
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
8 8
6%
Britain is getting
better as a place to live
9 9
61%
Britain is getting
worse as a place to live
10 10
24%
Britain is getting better as
a place to live July 1998
11 11
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
“Thinking about
your local area,
which 4 or 5
things most need
improving?”
12
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Crime is #6...
%
Q Thinking about your local area, which 4 or 5 of the things on the card, if any, do you think most need
improving?
%
Base: 986 British adults 15+, 15-21 June 2012
Top mentions Next mentions
Source: Ipsos MORI Local Improvement Index
Activities for teenagers
Job prospects
Condition roads/pavements
Cleanliness of streets
Affordability of housing
Level of crime/ASB
Facilities for young
children
Parks and open spaces
Public transport
Wage levels/ local cost of
living
Sports and leisure facilities
The level of traffic congestion
Health services
Social care - adults and
older people
Schools
Social care - children and
families Cultural facilities(eg libraries,
museums) The quality of the local environment
Adult education/training
Race/community relations
Local high street/facilities
13 13
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
“What would you
say are the most
important issues
facing Britain
today?”
14
Base: 975 British adults 18+, 11th - 21st October 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: October
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
44
36
32
25
19
18
15
14
11
10
Top mentions %
Economy
Unemployment
Pensions/benefits
NHS
Race relations/Immigration
Education/Schools
Inflation/Prices
Poverty/Inequality
Change since Sept:
-1
+4
+2
-1
+8
+5
+2
-2
+2
0
% Position
Crime/Law and order
Housing
+1
+4
-1
-2
+2
+1
+1
15
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: Crime / Law & Order / Violence / Vandalism / ASB What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
Fuel
Protests
May day riots
Blair activates civil contingencies
machinery to deal with spiralling street
crime
Tory election pledge of
40,000 more police
Foreign prisoners scandal –
Charles Clarke is sacked
Rhys Jones and
Garry Newlove
murdered
Riots
Prison
overcrowding
reaches record
levels
9/11
Cameron becomes
PM
16 16
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Ipsos MORI Issues Index: Now recording the lowest level of
concern about crime since 1992
17 17
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
It’s worth taking a
moment to think about
how we felt during the
(pre-internet…) 1990s…
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
55%
23 23
24 24
54% 60%
The “norm” back in 1993: Most Brits thought they would be a
victim of burglary or car crime over the next 12 months…
25 25
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Fast-forward to 2010…
26 26
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Post-2010 Reforms:
Policing, education and NHS have been major focus.
But they haven’t been the top priorities for the public,
as measured by the monthly Ipsos MORI Issues Index
27
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: Education / Schools What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
Cameron becomes
PM
London
Bombs
Introduction of
means-tested tuition
fees. Education most
important issue.
Fuel
Protests
City academies introduced to
combat entrenched failure in
some urban schools
Lowest score
since Dec 1985
Labour’s second term - pledge to
improve failing secondary schools
Education and Inspections Bill
limits the power of LAs to
open new schools
April 2011 – Pupil Premium
introduced
28
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: NHS / Hospitals / Healthcare What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
Blair tells doctors “not enough”
has been done for the NHS –
allocates extra £20 billion. Report
says waiting lists have doubled
under Labour
Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for
it” – BBC NHS day
Alan Milburn promises 35,000 more
nurses, 40 new hospitals and
development of foundation trusts as part
of NHS plan
General
Election –
“Battle of
Margaret’s
shoulder”
Hewitt heckled at UNISON
conference – fears over NHS
job cuts
Lowest score
since
December 1985
Cameron becomes
PM
29
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: Race Relations / Immigration / Immigrants What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
Race riots in
Burnley, Oldham,
and Bradford
Sangatte detention
centre constantly in the
news throughout 2002
600,000 EU migrants
settled since 2004
9/11
Anthony Walker
murdered in
Liverpool
Foreign
prisoners
furore
Cameron becomes
PM
“Go home or face arrest”
adverts used in some
London Boroughs
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: Economy / Economic situation What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Global Recession and
Russian Financial
crisis
Highest score since 1992.
Most important issue for the
first time
Sub-prime
mortgage crisis in
the US
Northern Rock
nationalised
End of
recession
announced
Bank
bailout
Cameron becomes
PM
Lowest score since
Lehman Brothers’
collapse (43%)
31
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Issues Facing Britain: Unemployment / Factory closure / Lack of industry What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
0
10
20
30
40
50
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
May2012
May2013
‘New Deal’ launched, providing training, subsidised
employment, and voluntary work
to the unemployed
Unemployment falls below 1 million for first
time in 25 years
Minimum wage
introduced
Unemployment in Britain rises to
5.5%
Lowest ever score
Youth unemployment reaches 1 million
Cameron becomes
PM
32 32
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Britain 2013:
Yes! Crime is falling
33 33
34 34 …and not just in Britain:
Source: The Economist, 20 July 2013
35 35
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Yes, but
Hmm…
Below are a number of statements about how Britain and our public services have changed over
the last few years. For each one I would like you to tell me whether you think it is true or false:
Is it making us feel that much better?
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
51
28
13
83
20
43
Violent crime is rising
Police numbers are
the highest ever
Crime is falling
2013
2013
2013
2005
2005
2005
83
76
70
71
92
48
50
46
48
71
Thinking about ..., how much of a problem do you think each of the following are….?
The local and the national again...
Unemployment
Rubbish or litter lying around
Immigration
Crime
Teenagers hanging around the
streets
Local area UK as a whole % A very or fairly big
problem
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
Gap
+35
+26
+24
+23
+21
38
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
53%
51%
46%
40%
36%
35%
34%
33%
24%
23%
22%
22%
Italy
Netherlands
UK
Australia
Canada
And we DO worry: The Brits are the biggest worriers
when it comes to crime
Germany
France
US
South Korea
Sweden
Q. Which three of the following topics do you find the most worrying in your country? Crime and violence
Spain
Poland
Source: Ipsos MORI Global @dvisor Base: 22,224 online consumer citizens, 14 April-7 May 2009
39 39
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Yes, but
and anyway…
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
41 41
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
There are
new types of
crime for us all
to be worrying
about…
© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
…meanwhile, back in my local area…
43 43
When I type “local policing”
into my search engine…
44 44
…I get LOTS of information
about all the crimes STILL
happening in my area….
45 45
Similar experience when I’m out and about…
Does this make me feel more safe or less safe?
46 46
47 47
48 48
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Fast-forward to 2015…
Public opinion and crime at
the next General Election?
49 49
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: Conservatives are a bit
ahead as “best party on crime”?
50
18%
3%
11%
9%
6%
6%
21%
19%
19%
22%
31%
22%
Europe
Crime & anti-social behaviour
Asylum/ immigration
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP
On crime, the Conservatives have a clear (but
not dramatic) lead at the moment…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
51
1%
2%
1%
1%
6%
5%
6%
8%
32%
30%
36%
31%
18%
26%
21%
25%
Housing
Unemployment
Healthcare
Education
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP
Labour lead on other issues…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
52 52
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: (Most) police can be
trusted?
53
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Veracity Index – unlikely to change in next 2 years?
I am going to read out some different types of people. For each, please tell me if you would generally trust
them to tell the truth or not.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013
9 11
11111 13
24 27 28 26
38 34
47 57
70 70 72 75 77
89 86 83 82
69 66 65 64
53 50
41 34
24 23 21 21 18
Doctors
Teachers
Scientists
Judges
Television news readers
Clergymen/priests
Police
The ordinary man/woman in the street
Civil Servants
Pollsters
Trade union officials
Business leaders
Estate agents
MPs in general
Journalists
Bankers
Politicians generally
% Not trust % Trust
54 54
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: Probably not a great plan
to say “we are making cuts to
policing”
55
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
“Don’t cut the Police” is the public’s starting point
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013
50
45
28
22
14
12
11
9
5
3
5
6
The NHS/Healthcare
Benefit payments
Defence and armed forces
Overseas aid
Social services
State pensions
Schools
Local authority services
Police
Care for the elderly
Other
Don’t know
55
44
28
10
8
5
4
3
2
1
9
7
Overseas aid
Benefit payments
Defence and armed forces
Local authority services
Social services
The NHS/Healthcare
Police
State pensions
Schools
Care for the elderly
Other
Don’t know
Government spends most money
Government should cut
56
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Don’t cut the Police. Or Health. Or Schools. Or Pensions…
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?
Q. Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government should cut the most money from?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,018 British adults 18+, 9th - 11th February 2013
50
45
28
22
14
12
11
9
5
3
5
6
The NHS/Healthcare
Benefit payments
Defence and armed forces
Overseas aid
Social services
State pensions
Schools
Local authority services
Police
Care for the elderly
Other
Don’t know
55
44
28
10
8
5
4
3
2
1
9
7
Overseas aid
Benefit payments
Defence and armed forces
Local authority services
Social services
The NHS/Healthcare
Police
State pensions
Schools
Care for the elderly
Other
Don’t know
Government spends most money
Government should cut
57 57
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: Generally things are
staying “about the same”
in my area…?
58
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
On balance, based on your personal experience, do you think the following public
services have got better or worse over the past 12 months or have they stayed the
same?
Staying the same (in the main....)
6
3
5
4
1
3
3
18
12
13
13
9
10
9
49
64
56
47
59
52
41
17
14
16
20
19
22
18
3
5
8
11
6
9
19
7
2
2
5
6
4
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Primaryeducation
Refusecollection
NHS GP
NHSHospitals
Secondaryeducation
Publictransport
The police
Much better A little better Stayed the same A little worse Much worse Don't know/can't say
Base: Online British adults aged 16-75 who are users of each service (n in brackets), 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA
59 59
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: The police are
tolerably well run (we
think)?
60
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
“Do you think the police is well run or not well run”
66% in 1987, 62% in 2009, ? In 2015?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000) Trend
% Well run
61 61
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: You can change the
way things are organised
if you like…
62 62
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: You can change the
way things are organised
if you like, but don’t
expect us to notice
63 63
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
CASE STUDY:
The police and crime
commissioner elections…
64 64
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
3% know “a great
deal” about them” 5-16 October 2012
65 65
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
8% know the name of
their PCC Autumn 2013
66 66
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
You can change the way
things are organised if
you like, but DON’T mess
things up
67
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Four Things We Think We Know About Public Services
1. People value the security provided by public services
2. Fairness is key – often equated with universal provision
3. People want to protect what they have
1. Divided over need for cuts to tackle deficit
2. Even though all agree huge efficiency savings are possible
4. Private sector involvement is a low salience issue
+ Efficient, dealing with failure, experience
- Profits, accountability, losing what we cherish
68 68
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
General Election 2015
In summary…
69 69
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
2015: Crime & policing will
be an issue, but probably
not THE issue?
70
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
26%
23%
14%
12%
11%
8%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
32%
Taxation
Asylum/immigration
Afghanistan
Pensions
Education
Protecting natural env./climate change
Managing the economy
Care for older & disabled people
Healthcare
Benefits
Crime/ anti-soc. behaviour
Looking ahead of the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
The position in 2010. How different will 2015 be?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Unemployment
All at 3% or above
Defence Base: 1,503 British adults 18+, 19th-22nd March 2010
Public transport/roads
Iraq
Housing
71 71
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
HOWEVER…
72 72
• Of Twitter users are likely
to recommend a brand
they follow, and more than
1/3 access Twitter via their
mobile phone.
Can Britain have a more
“sophisticated” debate
on all this?
Public keen on prisons,
but also ready to discuss
“rehabilitation”…
73
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
38
18
13
13
6
16
6
15
4
7
45
2
1
The public prioritise maintaining police numbers over other
potential cost-saving measures
More fines (eg speeding tickets,
parking fines)
Fewer rehabilitation programmes for
drugs & alcohol users
Fewer prison sentences and more community sentences
Fewer education programmes in
prisons
% Most % Least
Q: If the Criminal Justice System was to face lower levels of spending, which of these, if any, would you be most/least willing to accept?
Base: 1,041 online British adults aged 16-64, 4-7 Sept 2009
None of these
Less monitoring of people on
probation
Fewer police
74
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
38
36
14
12
24
23
1
2
Most people do not feel prison/probation services reduce re-
offending
% Quite effective
% Very effective
% Not at all effective
Prison Service
% Not very effective
Base: 906 adults in England and Wales, January 2009
Q How effective do you think the xxx service is at reducing re-offending…?
% Don’t know
Probation Service
23
27
52%
48%
25%
25%
75
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
74%
13%
36%
24%
79%
57%
But we should still build more prisons!
Send fewer people to prison
Q. As you may know, Britain has a bigger proportion of its population in prison than many other countries, and Britain’s prisons are nearly full. For each of the following ways of dealing with this, do you think they should or should not be used?
Make prison sentences shorter
Build more prisons
Should not Should
Source: Ipsos MORI/Sun, 2006
Base: 1,001 British public aged 18+, 12-17 January 2006
Net
-21
-66
+50
76
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Even though – widespread belief that prison does not reduce re-
offending…
2001
2003
2004
Q Which two or three of these do you think would do most to reduce crime in Britain?
Base: Representative samples of British residents (c.1,000 - 2,000).
67%
49%
46%
41%
21%
19%
11%
10%
11%
24%
55%
49%
53%
40%
21%
29%
8%
20%
57%
46%
49%
41%
23%
19%
10%
23%
59%
45%
55%
41%
27%
19%
Better parenting
Better discipline in schools
More constructive activities for young people
Capital punishment for murder
More police on the beat
More effective programmes to change behaviour
Introducing a national identity card
More offenders in prison
2009
77
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
43
23
53
18
9
22
14
33
6
5
15
2
Source: Ipsos MORI
% Tend to agree % Strongly agree
The public are generally positive about “rehabilitation”, but there is
some social desirability in how people answer?
% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree
Rehabilitation is the best way of
preventing offenders from
committing further crimes
Rehabilitation is
generally a waste of
time and effort
Don’t know/
neutral
20%
20%
Rehabilitation does not work for
all offenders but is the most
effective solution for offenders
who want to stop offending
16%
Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010.
Split sample for top two statements.
78
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
26
23
23
18
18
13
13
11
10
10
10
27
When we ask the public and serving offenders what will make the most
difference, ‘help in finding work’ is top priority for both
Those mentioned by 10%+
Q What types of approaches and activities do you think are currently used in the rehabilitation of people who have committed crimes?
Source: Ipsos MORI
Education courses
Drug programmes/help with drugs
Help finding employment
Help with alcohol problems
Teaching of new skills/trades
Help understand impact of actions
Help with accommodation
Help bring back to society
Mediation/help to say sorry
Anger management
Don’t know/can’t say
Support to address issues (non specific)
Base: 1,868 British adults, fieldwork dates 14-20 May 2010
This is what both the
public and current offenders
actually think will
make most difference
Thank you
Simon Atkinson
Assistant Chief Executive
22 November 2013
@SimonMAtkinson