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SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16

Critical Infrastructures – Concepts and five challenges

from a risk perspective on interdependencies

LUND UNIVERSITY / CENCIP & LUCRAM / SWEDEN

J. JOHANSSON, H. HASSEL, A. CEDERGREN, L. SVEGRUP., B. ARVIDSSON & F. LANDEGREN


Critical Infrastructures?

• “…those assets or parts thereof which are essential for the maintenance of

critical societal functions, including the supply chain, health, safety, security,

economic or social well-being of people” (EPCIP – COM, 2006)

• Brief history – From sector regulation towards holistic infrastructure protection

– Starting point for the field; Executive Order 13010 (Executive Order, 1996), creating

PCCIP in the USA.

– 9/11 in 2001 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illuminated the importance and

vulnerability of critical infrastructure. Creation of DHS and intensified work.

From terrorism towards all-hazard approaches.

– In Europe, the EPCIP program was initiated in 2006.

– Today most countries around the world have programs

focused towards CIP, i.e. moving from earlier

“sector-divided” approaches towards more

holistic infrastructure protection approaches.

– A response to the interconnectedness of todays

infrastructures – the backbone of society.


Why?

• Society heavily dependent on the

services of critical infrastructures,

widespread disruption entails large-

scale societal impacts.

• Hence:

– Proactive risk and vulnerability

methods and actions

fundamental

– Increasing our understanding

the limits of critical

infrastructures of essence

• However, there exist several

research challenges for a holistic

understanding and a need for

method development in this field. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

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1. Agriculture, hunting and related service activities2. Forestry, logging and related service activities3. Fishing industry4. Mining of coal and lignite; extraction of peat

5. Mining of metal ores, Other mining and quarrying6. Manufacture food and beverages

7. Manufacture of textiles8. Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur9. Tanning and dressing of leather

10. Manufucture wood and products of wood11. Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products

12. Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media13. Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels

14. Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products15. Manufacture of rubber and plastic products16. Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products

17. Manufacture of basic metals18. Manufacture of metal products19. Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.

20. Manufacture of office machinery and computers21. Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus

22. Manufacture of medical equipment23. Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

24. Manufacture of other transport equipment25. Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.

26. RecyclingElectricity Sector: 396 MSEK/day

28. Gas, steam and hot water supply29. Collection, purification and distribution of water

30. Construction31. Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles

32. Wholesale trade and commission trade33. Retail trade

34. Hotels and restaurants35. Land transport; transport via pipelines

36. Water transport37. Air transport

38. Supporting and auxiliary transport activities39. Post and telecommunications

40. Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding41. Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security

42. Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation43. Real estate activities

44. Renting of machinery and equipment45. Computer and related activities

46. Research and development, Other business activities47. Public admnistration and defense

48. Education49. Health and social work

50. Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities51. Activities of membership organisation n.e.c.

52. Recreational, cultural and sporting activities53. Other service activities54. Private households with employed persons55. Imports

56. Exports

Economic loss (MSEK/day)


Five challenges

I. Capturing interdependencies between societal functions (SRA-Nordic contribution by Henrik Hassel et al.)

II. Modelling and simulation of interdependent critical

infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Linn Svegrup et al.)

III. Safety margins, recovery and resilience of critical

infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Finn Landegren et al.)

IV. Empirical data for cascading effects in critical infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Björn Arvidsson et al.)

V. Risk governance of critical infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Alexander Cedergren et al.)


El

Fjärrvärme

Bränsle och drivmedel

Betalningssystem

Tillgång kontanter

Värdepappershandel

Försäkringar

Tillverkningsindustri

Akutsjukvård

Primärvård

Läkemedel- & Materialförsörjning

Omsorg om barn

Funktionshindrade

Äldrevård

Socialtjänst

Smittskydd

Telefoni (fast)

Telefoni (mobil)

Elektronisk kommunikation

Internet

Radiokommunikation Satellit / GNSS

Dagstidningar

Webbaserad information

MedierTV

Radio

Dricksvattenförsörjning

Avloppshantering

Renhållning

Väghållning

Distribution livsmedel

Primärproduktion livsmedel

Tillverkning livsmedel

Kontroll av livsmedel

Lokal ledning

Regional ledning

Nationell ledning

Polis

Räddningstjänst

Alarmeringstjänst (t.ex. SOS)

Tullkontroll

Bevaknings & säkerhet

Militärt försvar

Sjuk- & arbetslöshetsförsäkring

Flygtransport

Järnvägstransport

Sjötransport

Vägtransport

Kollektivtrafik

Kompetent personal/entreprenörer

Förskolor och skolor

Sjö

Liv och hälsa

Funktionalitet

Grundläggande värden

Samhällsviktig verksamhet

Teknisk infrastruktur

Allmänheten

Personal

Challenge 1 Interdependencies between societal functions

• Dependencies between societal

functions seems to be increasing

• The overall “societal system”

more tightly interconnected

• Trends such as globalisation,

urbanisation, and technological

development drivers for

efficiency but also introduces

new vulnerabilities and

changes the risk picture.

• The understanding of the

interconnectedness of these

functions and the mechanisms of

how consequences can spread

limited. Need for new approaches

and empirical data.


Challenge 2 Modelling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructures

150 200 250 300 350

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• Technical infrastructures, such as power systems, railways, air

transportation and telecommunication, form a subpart of critical

infrastructures.

• Here data of individual systems exist, however data of their

interdependencies and models of accounting for the “system-of-system”

behaviour of interdependent technical infrastructures lacking.

• From a Swedish governance perspective,

adequate mechanisms for

managing risk and vulnerabilities

from “system-of-system”

perspective lacking.

• Efforts needed to develop models

and simulation methods to inform

decisions from a more holistic

perspective.


Challenge 3 Safety margins, recovery and resilience of critical infrastructures

• Technical infrastructures are inherently socio-technical by nature, the

infrastructures are designed, operated, maintained and restored by

humans.

• In general, research in this field tends to focus

rather narrowly on “everyday” incidents (based

on historical data) and technical aspects.

• To better grasp the resilience of infrastructures

more work is necessary towards their limits

towards large-scale disruptions, e.g. their

ability to recover functionality.

• Approaches needs to merge the pure technical

parts of the infrastructures with models able to

capture the capacity of the organisation in

responding to disruptions beyond normal.


Challenge 4 Empirical data for cascading effects between critical infrastructures

• To support the research in the field of critical infrastructures, one important

aspect is the access to empirical data.

• In general, good quality data with respect to the consequences that arise

when infrastructure collapses are lacking. For example traditional accident

investigation methods do not focus on interdependencies.

• This type of data is essential to improve our understanding of how society is

dependent on the services infrastructures provide, how this picture has

changed and increase our understanding of the mechanisms behind

interdependencies leading to cascading effects.

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20

Initiating event

1. Power supply

13. Agriculture

19. Public

2. Telecommunication

3. Water supply

5. Oil and gas

7. Health care

8. Education

9. Road transportation

10. Rail transportation

13. Agriculture

14. Business & Industry

15. Media

16. Financial

19. Public

13. Agriculture

14. Business & Industry

17. Governmental

18. Emergency response

19. Public 19. Public


Challenge 5 Risk governance of critical infrastructures

• The operation and management of many critical infrastructures has become

divided between a larger set of stakeholders, resulting in a dispersion of

responsibility.

• In this institutionally fragmented setting, traditional risk management tools

are not always suitable to deal with risks in a feasible manner.

• No single stakeholder has the superior authority or overview to make and

implement holistic risk-reducing decisions.

• Research needs related to

stakeholders’ diverse

framings of risk, communication

challenges, sub-contracting and

cross-scale interactions.


Centre for Critical Infrastructure

Protection Research (CenCIP)

• Newly formed centre of excellence at LU, 2015-2020 (MSB).

• Descriptive and normative research within three areas:

– Interdependencies and societal consequences

– A holistic view on terms, concepts and methods

– Governance, measuring and learning

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