crossing the divide: the future of clean energy · crossing the divide: the future of clean energy...

A major multiclient study that provides an integrated framework

for understanding the current and future role of renewables and

clean energy technologies, and the implications for company

strategies and the competitive landscape.

Crossing the Divide:The Future of Clean Energy

A CERA Multiclient Study

Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy

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Private and Confidential © 2007 CERA, Inc. All Rights Reserved. No portion of this prospectus may be reproduced in any form without prior written consent.

Crossing the Divide:The Future of Clean Energy

I. Overview Defining Clean Energy

II. Study Scope

III. Study Methodology

IV. Quantitative Analysis

V. Project Team

PROSPECTUS CONTENTS


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I. OVERVIEW

The race is on to invest in renewables and clean energy technologies, yet the outcome is far from clear. Considerable uncertainties exist over the policy context, the technologies themselves, and the broader energy competitive landscape. Who will be the winners and losers, and what will the implications be for company strategies and the competitive landscape?

CERA is pleased to announce the completion of a major new multiclient study designed to provide insight into these questions and a comprehensive framework for understanding the role of clean energy technologies both today and in the future.

This study is aimed at sorting through the welter of competing claims, contradictions, and hyperbole to offer an objective assessment of the prospects for clean energy technologies. This powerful study provides a roadmap for the future evolution of clean technologies and a framework for comparative analysis of investment options.

Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy addresses some of the critical unanswered questions underlying today’s clean energy investment boom:

• How large is the clean energy market today, and what is the growth potential?

• Will technological advancements significantly alter the playing field? If so, how long with they take to penetrate the market?

• How stable is today’s policy framework, and what is the likely future policy path? What are the policy drivers and who are the Prime Movers to watch?

• Where are the best opportunities for energy industry players and new entrants? What are the risks? And what are the signposts to monitor to respond quickly to changing directions?

To answer these questions, CERA has developed original scenarios as a means of assessing alternative futures. These build on CERA’s proprietary analysis. In addition, CERA utilizes the long-term energy framework developed through our recent Multiclient Study Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030. This detailed study provides the basis for a robust, in-depth comparative energy analysis and quantification that is needed to objectively assess the future for clean energy technologies.

Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy provides the much needed road map for energy decision makers, investors, and policymakers to understand and navigate the clean energy landscape—and to develop sound expectations and strategies. It clarifies the role, impact, and extent of clean energy technologies in the global energy mix and serve as an “early warning system,” to help organizations identify opportunities and changes in a fast-moving, fast-changing world of clean energy.


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DEFINING CLEAN ENERGY

Clean energy has no clear, accepted meaning and is often interpreted in different ways. For the purposes of the Crossing the Divide study, the term is used to describe a set of new and conventional energy technologies that, alone or in combination, can (1) provide energy with a minimal carbon footprint to help address climate change, and (2) facilitate greater energy security through broader diversity of fuels and technologies—all at prices that are politically acceptable and conducive to economic growth and development.

The technologies examined in this study are

• biofuels—including ethanol, biodiesel, and advanced next generation cellulosic-based fuels

• renewables (for power generation)—including wind, biomass, geothermal, solar (photovoltaics [PV] and concentrating solar power [CSP]), and ocean power

• carbon capture and storage—particularly as it applies to coal-fired power generation facilities

• conventional clean technologies—nuclear energy and hydropower.


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• Executive Summary

• Chapter I: Biofuelso Introductiono Current Technology Landscape Conventional Ethanol Conventional Biodiesel Renewable or “Green” Diesel BioButanol Enzymatic Cellulosic Ethanol Biomass to Liquids

o Cost and Performanceo Investment Trendso Key Playerso Policy Landscapeo Resource Availabilityo Constraintso Uncertaintieso Biofuels Outlooks (Current Trend, Updside Case,

Downside Case)

• Chapter II: Renewable Power – Wind (on- and off-shore), Biomass, Geothermal, Solar Photovoltaic, Concentrating Solar Power, and Ocean Power

For each renewable power technology listed above, the following analysis is included:

o Introductiono Technology Landscapeo Cost and Performance Characteristicso Investment Trendso Key Playerso Policy Landscapeo Resource Availabilityo Constraintso Uncertaintieso Outlook

(Current Trend, Upside Case, Downside Case)

• Chapter III: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)o Introductiono Technology Landscape

Carbon Capture Oxyfuel Combustion with Carbon Capture Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle CO2 Scrubbing: Pulverized Coal Combustion Natural Gas-fired Generation with CO2 Capture

Carbon Transport and Storage

o Cost and Performance Characteristicso Investment Trendso Key Playerso Policy Landscapeo Constraintso Uncertaintieso CCS Outlooks

(Current Trend, Updside Case, Downside Case)

• Chapter IV: Conventional Clean Energy – Nuclear and Hydro

For each conventional clean energy technology listed above, the following analysis is included:

o Introductiono Technology Landscape For Nuclear: Generation III+ and Generation IV

technologies For Hydro: Reservoir, Pumped storage, and

Run-of-river technologies

o Cost and Performance Characteristicso Investment Trendso Key Playerso Policy Landscape globally and regionallyo Resource Availabilityo Constraintso Uncertaintieso Outlook

(Current Trend, Upside Case, Downside Case)

• Chapter V: Clean Energy Scenarios (Launch Pad, Asian Phoenix, and Global Fissures) For each scenario included is a detailed discussion of the scenario’s business environment, major drivers (e.g. energy commodity prices, economic growth, policy context) and assumptions, and outlook for each clean energy technology including policy developments, nature and pace of technology change, and technology cost trends.

• Appendix: Quantitative Results (see quantitative analysis description)

II. STUDY SCOPE

Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy is a CERA Multiclient Study that provides an integrated framework for understanding the current and future role of clean energy technologies, and the implications for company strategies and the competitive landscape. The complete final report comprises


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III. STUDY METHODOLOGY

Getting a handle on the potential future for clean energy requires three things. First, the current understanding and experience on clean energy technologies needs to be collected to establish the starting point. Second, the current trends driving these technologies, as well as the upside and downside potentials, need to be identified.Third, the upsides, trends, and downsides need to be evaluated in an integrated

scenario framework.

The Crossing the Divide study used a series of workshops to collect the current thinking on clean energy technologies, the trends, and how upside and downside paths could develop. The study combined this collective input of study participants with CERA’s broad research capabilities and deep expertise in a range of energy sectors and geographic regions to help gauge expectations for clean energy and align them with reality. The process combined qualitative and quantitative research and analysis by CERA researchers and analysts around the globe as well as input from outside industry experts and participating energy stakeholders. Given this context, CERA’s Dawn of a New Age global energy scenarios were used as a framework to evaluate the potential pathways these technologies could take under different sets of global circumstances. Significantly, the scenarios provide a framework for assessing the winners and losers among various clean energy technologies and help define key risks and opportunities as companies seek to place their technology bets.

The CERA Clean Energy ScenariosBelow are brief descriptions for the three CERA clean energy scenarios.

LAUNCH PAD

The Launch Pad scenario describes a world in which strong policy support and technological advances in clean energy reinforce each other and drive the development and adoption of a wide range of clean energy technologies. The path to this new energy future is defined

by the coalescence of three major drivers: a strong energy price cycle, growing public pressure to control greenhouse gas emissions, and a geopolitical and business environment that encourages private investment in the research and commercial development of clean energy technologies. Although a broad mix of social, economic, and political challenges remains around the world, governments in this scenario tend to work more collaboratively with each other and with industry to react to ongoing periodic shocks and crises as well as to address the long-term challenges of global climate change and energy security.

ASIAN PHOENIX

In the Asian Phoenix scenario the global balance of geopolitical and economic power shifts to Asia, expanding Asia’s role as both consumer and exporter of clean energy technologies. Principal

drivers in this world are a strong global economy that propels energy demand, growing political and economic rivalry across nations, and a hybrid mix of state- and market-based economic policies that reflect the strong role played by governments in the economies of many rising Asian countries and other nations around the world. Although concerns over climate change influence the political agendas for many governments, there is no global compromise with regard to coordinating global carbon policies aimed at combating climate change. Governments’ inability to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto Protocol leads to a greater patchwork of policies. Geopolitical tension grows between those countries pursuing carbon limits and targets and those that do not. In Asian Phoenix strong economic growth and energy security concerns support some growth in renewable power generation and biofuels production, but the lack of sustained policy support limits overall growth.

GLOBAL FISSURES

In Global Fissures long-run economic cycles reemerge, ending the current historically prolonged growth phase. A rapid decline of global

economic growth, followed by a long, slow recovery, characterizes a world whose fragility is amplified by these economic fluctuations. Heightened global tensions and political insecurity, driven by terrorist acts and fear of future acts, contribute further to a global environment of increasing uncertainty and unease. A fundamental shift takes place in the relationships among government, society, and the marketplace. Simmering resentment of free trade and economic and social inequality drives political backlash against globalization and private sector reforms. The growing sense of global community that has developed over the past few decades gives way to renewed nationalism and economic protectionism. In this environment energy security is the primary lens through which energy-related policy issues and interests are driven. Global cooperation on issues such as trade and global climate change deteriorates, and the impetus for new agreements falters. Public concern over climate change weakens in the face of economic crisis as nations look inward and focus on domestic economic concerns. As government budgets tighten and political interest in reducing greenhouse gases is diluted, it becomes more difficult for governments to provide subsidies for clean technology unless it is viewed as having potential to contribute to domestic energy security.


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IV. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Each clean energy scenario narrative is accompanied by detailed

quantitative analysis—a distinct and unique aspect of CERA’s

scenario approach, enabling participants to apply the results to

specific business decisions. The analysis draws on the combined

expertise of CERA’s highly regarded oil, natural gas, coal, and electric

power capabilities—and the wealth of expertise and data across

sectors and regions. For each scenario (Asian Phoenix, Global

Fissures, and Launch Pad) the following data elements are provided

in Excel format:

CLEAN ENERGY DRIVERS

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP at purchasing power parity)

– annual growth rate for world and by region (North America,

Europe, OECD Asia Pacific, Non-OECD Asia Pacific (excluding

China), Latin America, Middle East, Eurasia, Africa) to 2030

• Crude Oil Prices – WTI nominal and real ($2007) annual average

US dollars per barrel to 2030

• Natural Gas Prices – Henry Hub nominal and real ($2007) annual

average US dollars per MMBtu to 2030

• CO2 Prices for United States and Europe – nominal and real

($2007) annual average US dollars per Metric Ton CO2 and Euros

per Metric Ton CO2 to 2030

BIOFUELS

Production and Net Import Outlooks—Each of the following data

elements include total production (million litres) for each scenario for

2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 for Africa, Asia (divided into China,

India, OECD Pacific, and rest of Asia), Eurasia, Europe, Eastern

Europe, Latin America, Middle East, and North America

• Total Biofuels Production by Region

• Total Ethanol Production by Region

• Total Grain-Based Ethanol Production by Region

• Total Sugarcrop-Based Ethanol Production by Region

• Total Enzymatic Cellulosic Ethanol Production

by Region

• Total Biomass-derived Diesel Production by Region

• Conventional Biodiesel & Renewable Diesel Production by

Region

• Biomass-to-liquids Synthetic Diesel Production by Region

• Net Imports – Ethanol

• Net Imports – Biodiesel

Biofuels Cost Evolution and Key Crop Metrics—For each scenario

for the years 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 several key metrics

are included for the following biofuels types:

• Corn-based Conventional Ethanol

• Wheat-based Conventional Ethanol

• Sugarbeet-based Conventional Ethanol

• Sugarcane-based Conventional Ethanol

• Cellulosic-based Ethanol

• Soy-based Conventional Biodiesel

• Rapeseed-based Conventional Biodiesel

• Palm-based Conventional Biodiesel

Specific Metrics include:

• Average crop yield (ton/hectare)

• Average Industry Conversion efficiency (liters of biofuel per ton of

feedstock)

• Overall crop efficiency (liters per hectare)

• Actual or Assumed vegetable oil price range ($/ton)

• Feedstock oil content (%)

• Gross feedstock cost ($/liter)

• Co-product credit ($/liter)

• Net Feedstock cost ($/liter)

• Fossil fuel energy cost ($/liter)

• Other O&M cost ($/liter)

• Total Operating Costs ($/liter)

• Capital cost ($/liter of annual capacity)

• Capital cost ($/liter)

• Total production cost ($/liter)

• Total production cost ($/barrel)

• Production Cost per Barrel of Diesel Equivalent

• Average US Gulf Coast wholesale diesel price

CLEAN ELECTRIC POWER – Biomass, Geothermal, Ocean Power,

Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Hydro, and Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS).

For Nuclear, Biomass, Geothermal, and Ocean Power, the following data

elements are provided for each scenario. For Solar each data element is

further divided into solar PV and solar CSP. For Wind each data element

is further divided into on- and off-shore. For Hydro each data element is

further divided into small and large hydro. For CCS, each data element is

further divided into coal-CCS and natural gas-CCS.

• Summary – Year-end Operating Capacity (GW) for the years 2015

and 2030 by region (Asia, Europe, North America, Rest of World,

World Total)

• Operating Capacity (GW) and Electric Generation (terawatt-hours)

by Region – for the years 2007 – 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030

for Africa, Asia (divided into China, India, OECD Pacific, Rest of

Asia), Eurasia, Europe (divided into Germany, France, Italy, Spain,

United Kingdom, Turkey, Rest of Europe), Latin America (divided

into Brazil and rest of Latin America), Middle East, and North

America (divided into United States and Canada)

• Annual Capacity Additions (GW), Annual Retirements (GW), and

Annual Generation Asset Investment (Billion 2007 US$) by Region -

for the years 2007 to 2030 for Africa, Asia (divided into China, India,

OECD Pacific, Rest of Asia), Eurasia, Europe (divided into Germany,

France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Turkey, Rest of Europe), Latin

America (divided into Brazil and rest of Latin America), Middle East,

and North America (divided into United States and Canada)


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V. PROJECT TEAM

Project Team

Olivier Abadie, CERA Director, has over 20 years of international experience in refining, trading, and business development. Based in Paris, Mr. Abadie focuses on short- and long-term analysis of crude oil and refined products markets, transportation, and refinery investment. His expertise covers analysis of economic conditions, global oil demand and supply trends, their influence on oil and product prices, and the implied strategic challenges. He works closely with CERA clients to assess how market, economic, and political risks could modify their competitive environment. He contributes to the CERA Refined Products Watch and CERA World Oil Watch through his analysis of Western European markets. Prior to joining CERA, Mr. Abadie was Trading Manager with Perenco, in charge of optimizing crude and gas export and sales in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Previously with ELF he was International Aviation Development manager, opened the company’s crude/products trading office in Moscow, and held operational jobs in crude and products trading. He also held positions in Mobil refining supply and retail in France. Mr. Abadie holds a degree from Ecole Polytechnique and Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées.

Sophie Aldebert, CERA Associate Director, leads the Southern Cone Energy Advisory Service. She is an expert in Latin American business and energy sector dynamics, with specialty in market fundamentals, market structure, scenario development, and strategy planning. She has advised international gas and power companies and large energy consumers on corporate strategies issues in Latin America. She directs the Southern Cone Energy Watch and is the author of many CERA reports including the analysis of business condition in the Southern Cone, regulatory changes, investment trends, and regional scenarios. Prior to joining CERA, she was a corporate strategy manager for PriceWaterhouseCoopers and also worked for Accenture. Ms. Aldebert holds a BA from Ecole de Commerce de Grenoble (France) and an MBA from George Washington University.

Aaron F. Brady, CERA Director, is an expert in the global oil market, including downstream price dynamics, political and regulatory influences, and economic trends. His analyses focus on the fundamentals of the North American refined product markets and on energy/environmental legislation and regulatory issues, including the role of alternative fuels. Mr. Brady is a regular contributor to CERA’s global oil retainer research, providing market analysis on supply and demand fundamentals and key trends in the global downstream industry for both CERA’s World Refined Products Outlook and the World Oil Watch. He also researches and writes the North American oil section of CERA’s semiannual Global Energy Watch. His recent research includes market analysis of distillates and of the challenges and opportunities for ethanol and the oil market. Before joining CERA, Mr. Brady was a consultant in the oil industry, focusing on downstream regulatory issues including the transition to ethanol In the California gasoline market. Mr. Brady holds a BA from Amherst College and an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Shawn Carraher, CERA Senior Director, is a specialist in strategic planning and market analysis in the electric power industry. Ms. Carraher focuses on the analysis of global power trends, advising senior executives on the business landscape and corporate strategies. She has advised CERA clients on corporate strategy, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and the application of scenarios to long-term planning. She recently directed development and analysis of power issues for the CERA Multiclient Study Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios, and the participation in the CERA survey of power industry executives analyzing key industry trends and risks. She also directed analysis of M&A in North America as well as the outlook for recovery of the merchant power sector of the near term. Before joining CERA, Ms. Carraher was a Director of Business Development with Edison Mission Energy where she provided regional market assessments, developed business strategies, and valued potential acquisitions and development projects. Ms. Carraher holds a BA from Bowdoin College, an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and an MBA from The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.


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V. PROJECT TEAM (CONTINUED)

Caio Macedo Carvalhal, CERA Associate, is a specialist with CERA’s Southern Cone Energy research team, where he is responsible for strategic analysis of South American oil and gas markets. Mr. Carvalhal is a regular contributor to the Southern Cone Energy Watch. His recent research includes analysis of presidential elections in Bolivia and the impact on the energy sector. Before joining CERA, Mr. Carvalhal was previously a consultant with Apsan Consulting Group and Arthur D. Little, were he was involved in several projects for a major South American energy company. Mr. Carvalhal holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business from Fundacão Getulio Vargas University in São Paulo, Brazil.

Roger J. Goodman, CERA Senior Consultant, is an authority on natural gas, coal, and electricity market trends. He specializes in strategy, scenario planning, technology, marketing, and business development. For nearly 15 years, Dr. Goodman was employed in a variety of senior management positions with Shell Canada Limited in strategic and scenario planning, business development, and marketing, especially in natural gas, electricity, sulfur, and liquids. Prior to his career at Shell he was employed at Crows Nest Resources Limited as Manager, International Coal Marketing, responsible for markets in North America, Europe, and Africa. He has also held senior management positions in the Canadian government in the areas of trade promotion, metals, minerals, and energy specialist and headed Canadian delegations as a technical expert at international meetings of UNCTAD, UNIDO, and the OECD. He is a founder and President of Kernow Enterprises Inc., a consultancy practice specializing in business trends and strategic and scenario analysis. Dr. Goodman is the author of several CERA reports, including analyses of coal commoditization, power generation, fuel cells, hydrogen, Canada’s Kyoto compliance strategies, and Canada’s electric power and fuels sectors including nuclear, hydro, natural gas, and coalbed methane. Dr. Goodman holds a BA from Carleton University, a BSc (Honors) from the University of Wales in Cardiff, and a DPhil from Oxford.

Christopher J. Hansen, CERA Associate Director, specializes in energy sector economics, electricity market reform, and international electric power policy. Before joining CERA, Mr. Hansen was a Researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, where he analyzed electricity and gas sector reform and hybrid energy systems in India, including regulation, corporate investment, and system dynamics. Previously, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) he examined technology scenarios for the Shandong Province, China, electricity system. He also has expertise in energy options and strategies, including in South African electricity reform, nuclear plant relicensing issues, and fuel cell market modeling and return measurement in the United States, among others. Mr. Hansen has published several papers in professional journals on energy sector economic and policy analysis. He holds a BSc in Nuclear Engineering from Kansas State University; a Graduate Diploma of Civil Engineering from the University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa; a Master of Science in Technology Policy from MIT; and a Master of Philosophy in Development Studies from Oxford University. He will complete his PhD from Oxford in 2006.

Ayaka Jones, CERA Associate, focuses on global coal market fundamentals, helps build CERA’s coal demand and pricing modeling platform, and contributes to the CERA Multiclient Study Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030. Before joining CERA, Ms. Jones evaluated clean coal programs in the United States and China at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Laboratory for Energy and the Environment; she has also conducted research on technological, economic, political, and environmental issues regarding the future of coal. Previously, Ms. Jones was an Engineer with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., which was building coal-fired power plants in China. Ms. Jones also was a Lecturer at Shanghai Jiaotong University and a Research Associate at Xi’an Jiaotong University (China), where she was engaged in optimization of thermodynamic systems for thermal power plants. Ms. Jones holds a BE and an ME in Thermal Engineering from Xi’an Jiaotong University, and an MS in Technology and Policy from MIT.


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Robert LaCount, CERA Director, is an authority on environmental policy and strategy, environmental regulations and legislation, climate change policies, and emissions trading. Mr. LaCount recently managed the environmental analysis for the CERA Multiclient Study Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030. He was also the project director for the CERA Special Report Design Issues for Market-based Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies and the CERA Special Study Clearing the Air: Scenarios for the Future of US Emissions Markets. Mr. LaCount joined CERA from PG&E National Energy Group where he was Director of Environmental Policy and Strategy. He has managed the design and implementation of numerous environmental regulations and emissions trading programs in previous positions with the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Mr. LaCount holds a BA from Wittenberg University, an MS from the University of Pennsylvania and the French Petroleum Institute, and an MBA from the University of Maryland.

Mark Morey, CERA Director, has over 25 years of coal industry experience. Mr. Morey specializes in the analysis of coal markets in North America and overseas, with a focus on price and demand forecasts, supply availability, contract negotiation, asset valuation, and environmental compliance. He also works with companies to develop strategic plans in the coal industry worldwide. His expertise includes energy, transportation, and electric power industry issues. Prior to joining CERA, Mr. Morey held executive posts at CONSOL Energy and AMVEST Coal Sales, Inc., major coal producers, where he was engaged in business development and strategic analysis and in the evaluation of mining properties for purchase and sale. Mr. Morey has authored numerous articles on coal-related matters and spoken at many conferences on the production, transportation, and use of coal. Mr. Morey holds a BA from the College of Wooster (Ohio) and an MS from Pennsylvania State University.

Brandon Owens, CERA Director, is an authority on global renewable energy markets, technologies, and policies. Mr. Owens specializes in market forecasting, scenario planning, and competitive strategy analysis. Previously, he directed the quantitative modeling effort for CERA’s Global and North American scenarios forums. Prior to joining CERA, Mr. Owens was Senior Consultant at Platts where he managed Platts’ renewable power consulting business. Earlier in his career, Mr. Owens served as Senior Researcher for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, where, among other responsibilities, he helped the US Department of Energy design, develop, and implement a research and development portfolio management system. His work has appeared in Public Utilities Fortnightly, Energy Policy, Research Evaluation, and other publications. Mr. Owens holds a BA with honors from the University of Colorado, and an MS from the Colorado School of Mines.

Richard C. Vidal, CERA Associate Director, is a specialist on international electric power and energy markets. He focuses specifically on the broad range of dynamics driving the international electric power business, including trends in geopolitics and economics, industry deregulation and privatization, market fundamentals, and corporate mergers and acquisitions. Mr. Vidal directs CERA’s compilation of global power investment and competitive intelligence and is the project manager and principal author of The State of Global Power Strategic Essays, CERA’s biannual outlook for the global power industry. Mr. Vidal was the project manager of Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030, the most comprehensive study that CERA has ever undertaken, encompassing the oil, gas, and electricity sectors and a global, integrated assessment of the world’s potential energy future. Prior to joining CERA, Mr. Vidal worked with Sandia National Laboratories performing comparative studies of international energy policies and technology programs. He is a coauthor of Outlook for Renewable Energy Technologies: Assessment of International Programs and Policies, published by Sandia National Laboratories. Mr. Vidal holds a BA from Boston University and an MA from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.


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Stow Walker, CERA Associate Director, specializes in business strategies for competitors in power generation technology markets. His focus is the business evolution of renewable, sustainable technologies and distributed energy technologies arising from changes in market and regulatory forces, customer requirements, and technology performance. Mr. Walker is a contributing author to the CERA Emerging Generation Technology Watch. His recent CERA research includes analysis of the wood biomass power, carbon sequestration, wind generation, regional renewable energy markets, and utility rate reforms related to distributed generation, as well as the impact of the 2005 Energy Policy Act on the electric power business. Before joining CERA, Mr. Walker consulted for Arthur D. Little, Inc. in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on power and environmental business markets. Mr. Walker holds a BA from Trinity College, an MA from Tufts University, and an MBA from Boston University School of Management.

Jone-Lin Wang, CERA Senior Director, is an expert on electricity markets, economics, and strategy. Dr. Wang is Head of Research for CERA’s North American Electric Power retainer service and the lead author of CERA’s North American Electric Power Watch, a well-respected quarterly report focusing on power industry structure and market fundamentals. Topics of her recent and upcoming reports include energy price shocks, changing characteristics of new supply, impact of the 2005 Energy Policy Act, financial valuation of power companies, and the resurgence of nuclear power. Dr. Wang speaks about electric power issues frequently and works with clients on business strategy and market fundamentals. She is an elected member of the Conference of Business Economists. Prior to joining CERA, Dr. Wang was Manager of Corporate Strategic Planning at the Electric Power Research Institute, responsible for analysis of industry trends, formulation of business strategies, and assessment of new businesses. Earlier in her career, Dr. Wang was a research associate at the Council of Economic Planning and Development of the Taiwan government, where she directed studies on energy modeling and emergency planning. She also taught economics at the University of Southern California. Dr. Wang holds a BS from National Taiwan University and a PhD from the University of Southern California.

Project Advisors

Daniel Yergin is a highly respected authority on international politics and economics and on energy. Dr. Yergin is a Pulitzer Prize winner and recipient of the United States Energy Award for “lifelong achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding.” He is both a world-recognized author and a business leader, as chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), one of the world’s leading consulting and research firms in its field. He is also executive vice president of IHS, the parent company of CERA. Dr. Yergin received the Pulitzer Prize for his work The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power, which became a number one best seller and was made into an eight-hour PBS/BBC series seen by 20 million people in the United States. The book has been translated into 12 languages. Dr. Yergin plays a leadership role in the global energy industry. He chaired the US Department of Energy’s Task Force on Strategic Energy Research and Development. He is a member of the Board of the United States Energy Association, and a member of the National Petroleum Council and this year became the only foreign member of the Russian Academy of Oil and Gas. He is CNBC’s Global Energy Expert. In November 2005, Dr. Yergin was awarded the Medal of the President of the Republic of Italy for combining “an understanding of the dynamics of the market with a broad view of the forces of geopolitics as he seeks to point the way to the positive outcomes for the world community.” Of Dr. Yergin’s most recent book, Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy, the Wall Street Journal said, “No one could ask for a better account of the world’s political and economic destiny since World War II.” The book has been translated into 13 languages. Dr. Yergin led the team that adapted it into a six-hour PBS/BBC documentary—the major PBS television series on globalization. The series received three Emmy nominations, a CINE Golden Eagle award, and the New York Festivals Gold World Medal for best documentary.


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Dr. Yergin has been named one of the 500 most influential people in the United States in the field of foreign policy by the World Affairs Councils of America. He is a Trustee of the Brookings Institution, on the Board of the New America Foundation, a Director of the US-Russia Business Council, and on the Advisory Board of the International Institute for Economics. Dr. Yergin received his BA from Yale University and his PhD from Cambridge University, where he was a Marshall Scholar. Dr. Yergin cofounded Cambridge Energy Research Associates, now an IHS company.

Jed Bailey, CERA Managing Director, is responsible for CERA’s research and operations in Latin America. He is an expert in Latin American energy markets, with specialties in market fundamentals, regulatory structure, and strategic planning. Mr. Bailey works closely with CERA clients on the investment climate and strategy in Latin America. Recent engagements include leading a global analysis of low-cost power opportunities for a major industrial client and working directly with the president and the energy minister of a Latin American country to develop a natural gas monetization strategy. He is currently overseeing CERA’s Multiclient Study on the future of Mexican energy markets to 2025. Mr. Bailey previously directed CERA’s Multiclient Study The Alchemist’s Challenge: Turning the Southern Cone’s Natural Gas into Gold and the 2002 update of CERA’s Multiclient Study Brazil: Market Rules and Power Plays. Prior to joining CERA, Mr. Bailey was a Research Assistant at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Energy Laboratory and worked with the US Agency for International Development in India. Mr. Bailey is the editor of CERA’s Latin America Energy Watch. He is the author or coauthor of many CERA reports, including analyses of the financial conditions in the Mexican and Brazilian power sectors; implications of economic and political volatility across Latin America; and the potential for energy reform in Mexico, Central America, and the Southern Cone. Mr. Bailey holds a BS from the University of Wyoming and an MS from MIT.

James Burkhard, CERA Managing Director, leads the team of CERA experts focused exploration and production strategy, upstream technology, and short- and long-term analysis of crude oil and refined products markets. He is the coauthor of CERA’s respected World Oil Watch, which analyzes short- to medium-term developments in the oil market. His expertise covers analysis of geopolitics, world economic conditions, and global oil demand and supply trends and how they influence oil prices. He works closely with CERA clients in assessing how market, economic, and political risks could change the competitive environment. Mr. Burkhard is currently the project director of Dawn of a New Age: Global Energy Scenarios for Strategic Decision Making—The Energy Future to 2030, the most comprehensive study that CERA has ever undertaken, encompassing the oil, gas, and electricity sectors. He was also the director of the CERA Multiclient Study Potential versus Reality: West African Oil & Gas to 2020. Before joining CERA, Mr. Burkhard directed infrastructure projects in West Africa, contributed to research on the interaction between government policy and capital investment, and was a field operator for Rod Electric. Mr. Burkhard holds a BA from Hamline University and an MS from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

David Hobbs, CERA Vice President and Managing Director of Global Research, is an expert in energy industry structure and strategies. He previously led CERA’s research activities in oil markets and strategies, liquefied natural gas, technology, and environmental strategies. Mr. Hobbs is an author of the major CERA studies, In Search of Reasonable Certainty: Oil and Gas Reserves Disclosures, a comprehensive analysis of the problem of assessing reserves, and Modernizing Oil and Gas Disclosures. He is also a principal author of the CERA Multiclient Study Harnessing the Storm—Investment Challenges and the Future of the Oil Value Chain and is the author of the CERA Private Report Daring to Be Disciplined: Continuous Portfolio Improvement. Prior to joining CERA, Mr. Hobbs had two decades of experience in the international exploration and production business. He has directed projects in Asia, South America, North America, and the North Sea. He has led major international investment and asset commercialization operations, and arranged funding, acquisition, divestment, and partnership transactions. Based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Mr. Hobbs holds a degree from Imperial College.


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Lawrence J. Makovich, CERA Vice President, Global Power, is a highly respected expert on the restructuring of the electric power industry. He directs CERA’s research efforts in the Global Power Group. He is an authority on electricity markets, regulation, economics, and strategy. His current research focuses on competitive power markets and the effects of liberalization on electric utility companies, including valuations and strategies. He is also analyzing the impact of electric power restructuring on transmission. He examined the impact of deregulation on residential power prices and the development of resource adequacy mechanisms in the CERA Multiclient Study Beyond the Crossroads: The Future Direction of Energy Industry Restructuring. He directs CERA’s Electric Power Watch and oversees Electric Power Trends. Dr. Makovich is currently advising or has recently advised several large utilities in major strategic engagements. He also testifies regularly to the US Congress on electric power policy. He has advised the government of China on electric power deregulation and transmission in competitive markets, and the Brazilian Congress invited him to testify on power liberalization. Among Dr. Makovich’s other significant CERA studies are examinations of the California power crisis in Crisis by Design: California’s Electric Power Crunch and Beyond California’s Power Crisis: Impact, Solutions, and Lessons.Dr. Makovich has been a lecturer on managerial economics at Northeastern University’s Graduate School of Business. He holds a BA from Boston College, an MA from the University of Chicago, and a PhD from the University of Massachusetts.

James Rosenfield is Cofounder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). For over two decades he led in the creation and growth of CERA, overseeing strategy, sales, marketing, product, and business development. Mr. Rosenfield created CERAWEEK and built it to become a premier international energy gathering of senior executives and government officials. Mr. Rosenfield has edited, coedited, and coauthored numerous CERA reports. He is Series Production Executive for “Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy,” the five-hour award-winning television documentary broadcast nationally over the Public Broadcast System, based on the book by Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw. Mr. Rosenfield serves on the boards of numerous early-stage companies. He is a Member of the Corporation of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. He received his undergraduate education at Harvard College and holds an MBA from Boston University. He is a Senior Fellow at the Harvard University Center for Business and Government.

Michael R. Banville, CERA Senior Director, has overall responsibility for commercial development of CERA’s Global Power practice. He works closely with these research teams to direct delivery of services, facilitate discussion between CERA experts and client organizations, and help clients identify strategic needs and determine how CERA may be of assistance. Prior to joining CERA, Mr. Banville was Director of Marketing at PowerSteering Software, where he managed the planning and execution of PowerSteering’s marketing program. He was also formerly head of the financial services conference division at the Center for Business Intelligence, where he produced events on issues of concern to finance executives including pension and mutual funds, investment banks, and infrastructure project developers. He holds a BA from Boston College and an MBA from Babson College.



For additional information regarding

CERA’s Crossing the Divide, please contact

Michael Banville +1 617 866 5352 [email protected]

55 Cambridge Parkway Cambridge, MA 02142 USA Phone: +1 617 866 5000

www.cera.com

Insight into the energy future…®

Insight into the Energy Future...

Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc. (CERA), an IHS company, is a leading advisor to energy companies, consumers and industrial companies, financial institutions, technology providers, and governments. CERA delivers critical knowledge and independent analysis on energy markets, geopolitics, industry trends, and strategy. Our services help decision makers anticipate the energy future and formulate timely, successful plans in the face of rapid changes and uncertainty. CERA is valued for our independence, fundamental research, foresight, and original thinking. Our unique integrated framework enables us to offer new insights ahead of conventional wisdom, providing a comprehensive “early warning system” that has a direct impact on investment, decision making, and performance. CERA’s expertise covers all major energy sectors—oil and refined products, natural gas, electric power, and renewables—on a global and regional basis. We deliver this expertise through our continuous research services, covering more than 20 areas of focus across the energy spectrum, as well as specific consulting and advisory projects. CERA’s team of experts is headed by Daniel Yergin, Chairman and Pulitzer Prize–winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. Dr. Yergin is also coauthor of the critically acclaimed book The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy.

CERA has over 200 staff worldwide, with offices in Cambridge, Massachusetts; Bangkok; Beijing; Calgary; Dubai; Johannesburg; Mexico City; Mumbai; Moscow; Oslo; Paris; Rio de Janeiro; San Francisco; Singapore; Tokyo; and Washington, DC.

crossing the divide: the future of clean energy · crossing the divide: the future of clean energy...

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