crowding out effects of refinancing on new purchase mortgages/media/others/events/2014/50... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Crowding Out Effects of Refinancing
On New Purchase Mortgages
Steve Sharpe
Shane M. Sherlund
Federal Reserve Board
Conference on Bank Structure & Competition May 2014
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Disclaimer
The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve
Board of Governors, its members, or its staff.
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Refi Applications and Mortgage Employees
Source: Calculations from Mortgage Bankers Association and Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Refi applications index (left)
Real estate credit employees (right)
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Capacity Utilization
Source: Calculations from Mortgage Bankers Association and Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
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Primary-Secondary Mortgage Rate Spread
Source: Calculations from Freddie Mac, LoanSifter, and Barclays data.
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
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Purchase Mortgage Originations
Source: Calculations from Lender Processing Services.
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
32,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
<=620 621-680 681-710
711-740 741-770 771-790
>790
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Credit Scores on New Purchase Mortgages
Source: Calculations from Lender Processing Services, Mortgage Bankers Association, and Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
684
688
692
696
700
704
708
712
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10th percentile for credit score on GSE purchase originations (left)
Capacity utilization (right)
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This Paper
Focuses on the quantity and characteristics of new purchase
mortgage originations under capacity constraints
We find that:
Primary-secondary spread positively correlated with capacity
constraints (a la Fuster et al. (2013))
Lenders showed little propensity to expand capacity in response to
increased refinance volumes
Capacity-constrained lenders might focus on mortgages that are
easier and less costly to produce
As capacity constraints ease, lenders might turn to more difficult
and more costly mortgages
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This Paper
Possible that purchase mortgage originations increase
following a rise in interest rates
Our estimates suggest that a 100 basis point increase in
mortgage rates, such as that experienced in May 2013, could
increase purchase mortgage originations for borrowers with
credit scores of 621-680 by about 2.5 percent
Lower capacity utilization more than offsets the drag caused by
higher mortgage rates
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Model
𝜋 𝑁, 𝑅 = 𝑝𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 + 𝑝𝑅 𝑅 𝑅 − 𝑁 + 𝑅 𝑖 − 𝑢 𝑅 + 𝛾𝑁
𝑝𝑁′ = −1/𝑒, 𝑝𝑅
′ = −𝜃/𝑒 𝜃 < 1: Refis more sensitive to interest rates than purchases
𝑑𝑁
𝑑𝑖> 0 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛: −1 +
𝑢′′𝑒 𝛾−1
2𝜃> 0
𝑢′′ ≫ 0 (marginal cost curve upward sloping)
𝑒 ≫ 0 (elasticity really large)
𝛾 ≫ 1 (purchase mortgages much more costly)
𝜃 ≪ 1 (refis much more interest rate sensitive)
Possible to have 𝑑𝑁
𝑑𝑖> 0 under the right conditions
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Simple Model
Leontief production technology:
𝑁 ≝ 𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑁 𝑖 , 𝛾𝐿𝑁 , 𝛾 > 1
𝑅 ≝ 𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑅 𝑖 , 𝐿𝑅
Maximize profits subject to labor constraint 𝐿𝑁 + 𝐿𝑅 ≤ 𝐿
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
aR + aN
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
aR + aN
N
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
aR + aN
N
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
aR + aN
N
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
aR + aN
N
Unconstrained
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
aR + aN
N
Unconstrained
Somewhat constrained
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Simple Model
i
# aR
aN
L0
R
aR + aN
N
Unconstrained
Somewhat constrained
Severely
constrained
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Simple Model
When interest rates increase
Refinance activity is unambiguously lower
Purchase activity could increase or decrease
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Data
Monthly originations of first-lien fixed-rate GSE purchase
mortgages from LPS Applied Analytics
Credit score groups: 620 or less, 621-680, 681-710, 711-740, 741-
770, 771-790, and greater than 790
Mortgage applications indexes from Mortgage Bankers
Association
Mortgage employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
National house price index from CoreLogic
Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac and LoanSifter
Unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Mortgage Employees
Long-run cointegrating relationship:
log 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑡 + 𝛿1 log 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑐𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 + 𝛿2 log 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑖𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 = 0
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Mortgage Employees
Long-run cointegrating relationship:
log 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑡 + 𝛿1 log 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑐𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 + 𝛿2 log 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑖𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 = 0
Strong long-run relationship between the number of
mortgage employees and mortgage applications
Purchase applications have a statistically significant positive
effect on employment
2000-2006 2009-2013
log 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑡 1.000 1.000
log 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑐𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 -0.470 **
(0.182)
-0.186 **
(0.091)
log 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑖𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 -0.189 **
(0.040)
-0.056
(0.059)
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Mortgage Employees
Long-run cointegrating relationship:
log 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑡 + 𝛿1 log 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑐𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 + 𝛿2 log 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑖𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 = 0
Number of mortgage employees tends to adjust very slowly,
only about 6-9 percent per month
2000-2006 2009-2013
log 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑡 -0.057 **
(0.016)
-0.091 **
(0.031)
log 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑐𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 0.004
(0.112)
0.254
(0.313)
log 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑖𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡 -0.053
(0.511)
-1.565 **
(0.663)
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Purchase Mortgage Originations
𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡−1 + 𝛽3𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
Proxy for latent mortgage demand: 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡−1
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Purchase Mortgage Originations
𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡−1 + 𝛽3𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
Proxy for latent mortgage demand: 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡−1
As capacity utilization increases:
Fewer purchases mortgages are produced for the lowest credit score
groups (620 or lower, and 621-680)
More purchase mortgages are produced for the highest credit score
group (790 or higher)
Credit Score
<=620 621-680 681-710 711-740 741-770 771-790 >790
2009 − 13 -1.441 ** -0.406 ** -0.110 0.098 0.178 0.243 0.288 **
(0.683) (0.147) (0.126) (0.134) (0.138) (0.123) (0.122)
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Purchase Mortgage Originations
𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡−1 + 𝛽3𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
Proxy for latent mortgage demand: 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝐴𝑝𝑝𝑠𝑡−1
Capacity utilization matters more during recent refinancing
episodes than in the past
Credit Score
<=620 621-680 681-710 711-740 741-770 771-790 >790
2009 − 13 -1.441 ** -0.406 ** -0.110 0.098 0.178 0.243 0.288 **
(0.683) (0.147) (0.126) (0.134) (0.138) (0.123) (0.122)
2003 − 07 0.625 ** 0.573 ** 0.806 ** 0.860 ** 0.834 ** 0.903 ** 1.205 **
(0.149) (0.109) (0.142) (0.140) (0.137) (0.134) (0.168)
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Purchase Mortgage Originations
Our estimates suggest that a 100 basis point increase in
mortgage rates, such as that experienced in May 2013, could
increase purchase mortgage originations for borrowers with
credit scores of 621-680 by about 2.5 percent
Lower capacity utilization more than offsets the drag caused by
higher mortgage rates
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Purchase Mortgage Credit Scores
𝐶𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
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Purchase Mortgage Credit Scores
𝐶𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
Median 10th Percentile
𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 8.1 ** 14.6 **
(2.3) (2.3)
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Purchase Mortgage Credit Scores
𝐶𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
Increased capacity utilization in 2012:
Increased median credit score about 2.5 points
Increased tenth percentile credit score about 5 points
Lower capacity utilization latter half of 2013:
Decreased median credit score about 3 points
Decreased tenth percentile about 6 points
Median 10th Percentile
𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 8.1 ** 14.6 **
(2.3) (2.3)
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Robustness
𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠𝑖𝑡/𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠850,𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽3𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
Implicit proxy for latent mortgage demand: 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠850,𝑡
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
621-680 relative to >790 681-710 relative to >790
711-741 relative to >790 Capacity utilization (right, inverted)
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Robustness
𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠𝑖𝑡/𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠850,𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑈𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑡−1 + 𝛽3𝑋𝑡 + 휀𝑖𝑡
Implicit proxy for latent mortgage demand: 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑂𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑠850,𝑡
Originations among the lowest credit score groups are
suppressed relative to those in higher credit score groups
Credit Score
<=620 621-680 681-710 711-740 741-770 771-790
2009 − 13 -2.424 ** -0.745 ** -0.473 ** -0.303 ** -0.222 ** -0.097
(0.808) (0.129) (0.097) (0.105) (0.098) (0.049)
2003 − 07 -0.599 ** -0.706 ** -0.453 ** -0.398 ** -0.441 ** -0.372 **
(0.181) (0.118) (0.105) (0.108) (0.119) (0.103)
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Conclusions
Binding mortgage processing capacity constraints can
reduce new purchase mortgage originations
Mortgage lenders complete mortgages that are easier and less costly
to produce
Adverse effect on low- to modest-credit-quality borrowers when
interest rates are low
When rates rise and capacity utilization falls
Purchase mortgage originations can actually increase
Particularly for borrowers of low to modest credit quality
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Conclusions
Our estimates suggest that a 100 basis point increase in
mortgage rates, such as that experienced in May 2013, could
increase purchase mortgage originations for borrowers with
credit scores of 621-680 by about 2.5 percent
Lower capacity utilization more than offsets the drag caused by
higher mortgage rates
Lower capacity utilization latter half of 2013:
Decreased median credit score about 3 points
Decreased tenth percentile about 6 points
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Extensions
HMDA data
Denial rates
Origination timelines
Credit scores?
Match with other data
2013 data not yet available
Equifax/NYFed CCP data
Better and more consistent coverage of mortgages?