crunching numbers for low carbon transport in asia - sudhir gota - lee schipper scholar -...
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Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia!
Transforming Transportation 2014!
! Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014!
! Sudhir Gota!! Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)!
Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia
Sudhir Gota Lee Schipper Scholar (2013) Transforming Transportation 16 January 2014 Washington,D.C.
Lee Schipper 1947-‐2011
Brazil = 40-50 million vehicles
emits 148 MT of CO2
India = 90-100 million vehicles
emits 145 MT of CO2
Common sense ?
“Top-down is accurate while bottom-up estimates unreliable especially in countries with limited data” Research objective - How to improve credibility and consistency of bottom-up modelling in Asia?
The Great Indian Mismatch
145
315
161
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
M T
ons
of C
O2
Bottom-‐up
Top-‐down
Gasoline
The Great Indian ‘Diesel’ Mismatch
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MTO
E
Poor data and insights cost - 3-10 billion USD diesel subsidy annually ‘low-hanging fruit’ : Prioritize data collection for Diesel vehicles
Official Data
Revised Official
calibration
Bottom-‐up
It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
Department of Energy claims ‘reduction’ due to “Impact of policies”
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Road Transport Fuel Consumption
Vehicles
GDP/Capita
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
CO2
It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
“33%” of fuel sold in the Philippines is smuggled costing 1 billion USD loss of revenues Top Down estimates are not realistic with ground conditions and aggressive policies are needed to reach 2030 goals.
DOE 2030 Target
2-3X Increase
Top Down
Bottom-up
Cost of “Doing Nothing” in Projects
avoided road space for a BRT is 2 m2 per rider and Metro is 3 m2per rider. Baseline - what would 'most likely' happen if this project is not executed
Impact of the project is compared with a 'no build' / 'without project'/ 'doing nothing' baseline.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
MRT Costs (million USD) Avoided Infrastructure Costs (million USD)
Ahmedabad Cebu Guangzhou Pimpri Chennai Bangalore Ho Chi Minh Manila