crystal ball

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  • 1. Crystal Ball- Predictive Management Name, title June 4, 2008
  • 2. Oracle Crystal Ball Crystal Ball is a universal, industry leading spreadsheet-based application for Monte Carlo Simulation, Forecasting and Optimization. A more realistic and accessible way of modeling uncertainty, Crystal Ball delivers the increased realism necessary for improving your forecasting, persuasiveness and credibility.
  • 3. Crystal Ball Users - Universal Financial Analysts for capital budgeting Corporate Strategists for mergers and acquisitions. Managers for schedule risk Engineers for quality and tolerance analysis Scientists for healthcare and research The common bond? In each case, the application involves some amount or risk, variation, or uncertainty. Other popular applications include project selection, inventory management, sales forecasting, environmental risk assessment, financial planning, cost estimation, and portfolio allocation. Crystal Ball is a flexible tool that can be applied to solve almost any problem where uncertainty and variability distort regular spreadsheet forecasts.
  • 4. Crystal Ball Predictive Modeling - Necessary Reduce complexity and increase standardization Increase forecast accuracy & consistency of data Gain insight to key drivers through sensitivity analysis Move from data manipulation to improving business processes Access Data Create Model Inputs Perform Analysis Communicate Results
  • 5. Crystal Ball at Work - Accessible Crystal Ball is a highly accessible, download and install desktop software. Define ranges of values to inputs and automatically calculate thousands of outputs and their probabilities. Run Monte Carlo Simulations to quickly automate "what if" analysis in spreadsheets. Analyze results through summarized reporting with Crystal Ball's many reports, charts and tools.
  • 6. Example Applications Financial Forecasting Portfolio Optimization Capacity Planning CapEx Decisions Engineering / Quality Which success potential Financial analysis Gauge country and Determine and Developingstaffing for projects projects in compounds designs for R&D to investthe needs based on optimizating and portfolios product pipeline forecast Acquisition evaluations R&D portfolio Outlicensing and Analyzing tolerance and inlicensing valuations and management Supply chain Acquisition/upgrade of reliability deal structuring management: determine equipment or software safety stock levels at Valuation of new projects international distribution Selecting optimal product Upgrade an existing opportunities centers production line or build Simulating processes Sales forecasting new Production forecasts when historical data is Forecasting Marketing lacking ROI
  • 7. Crystal Ball for Planning
  • 8. Crystal Ball for Planning Apply the power of Crystal Ball to your Oracle Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) and Business Intelligence (BI) applications. Using Oracle Hyperion Smart View for Office you can access data from your EPM applications, including Hyperion Planning and Essbase, in Excel and directly apply Crystal Ball to model your risks and predict success. With Oracle EPM Workspace you can share your Crystal Ball workbooks and analysis across the enterprise.
  • 9. Added Benefits for Planning Analyze the levels, trends and cycles within your historical data Use time-series forecasting methods to make statistically sound predictions See predictions as distributions, giving you confidence when you talk about the likelihood of hitting your goals Modify base predictions with expert opinion, accounting for things like increased sales due to marketing campaign or effect of increased competition For more information: Crystal Ball for EPM Datasheet
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  • 11. Contact Us Crystal Ball Global Business Unit 7700 Technology Way Denver, CO 80238 USA One South Place London EC2M 2RB United Kingdom +1.719.757.2173 +44 (0) 20 7816 7675