cs4 p12 alasia bollman agri_rural
Upload: canadian-rural-research-network-reseau-canadien-de-recherche-rurale
Post on 19-Jan-2015
256 views
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
The rural and agriculture interface:
towards a quantitative framework
Alessandro Alasia and Ray Bollman
Rural Research Group
1st Annual Rural Research Workshop
May 5, 2011, Ottawa
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 2
Outline-summary
Why: it is one of the long-standing policy questions
Literature: farm families are more dependent on rural communities that the other way around
Our objective: assess economic flows between the farm sector and the local economy (focus on labour)
Methods: spatial buffers of labour earnings and other economic flows
Findings: farm household labour supply to the community is generally greater than the non-family labour demand generated by farm business
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 3
Why are agriculture-rural linkages a
relevant issue?
Since the 70s the decoupling of agriculture and rural economy has become increasingly evident
A set of questions has become recurrent in the literature and policy debate (Heady 1981, Otto 1986, Fuller and Bollman 1992, OECD 2006; OECD 2010): • Can agricultural policy be a rural development policy? Or vice
versa.
• What would be the impact of an agriculture shock on the rural economy? Or vice versa.
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 4
Insights from the literature
Over time, agriculture and agricultural policies have become less relevant to rural communities; while the rural economy has become increasingly relevant in sustaining farming families (Smith and Martin, 1972; Otto 1986).
OECD (2010:7) “while agricultural policies are important for those who obtain their livelihood from the agricultural sector, the contribution of these policies to the economies of rural communities is tending to diminish.”
OECD (2010:9) “the work conducted by the OECD suggests that a continued shift from a sectoral emphasis towards place-based policies is likely to lead to increased policy effectiveness.”
OECD (2006), Coherence of Agricultural and Rural Development Policies (pag. 418)
• An extensive review of concepts, theory and case studies.
• Lack of data on agriculture-rural linkages, particularly when the focus is “place-base.”
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 5
Our objectives
A (preliminary) quantitative framework that can be
used to assess the linkages between agriculture and the
rural economy with:
A focus on economic flows
• Between the farm sector (farm) and the community
• Between the community and the farm sector (household)
A focus on communities (a place-based interface)
Where are the linkages?
(With some simplification and a focus on labour and goods/services)
Agriculture policy Other sectoral policy
Sector /vertical Sector /vertical
E.g. Price/income stabilisation E.g. Price
Marketing Marketing
Agricultural infrastructure Infrastructure
Local organizations
Municipalities
Community organizations
Rural development policy
Place based/horizontal
Infrastructure
Farm businesses Non-farm businesses Business support
Not-incorporated Agriculture related human capital
Incorporated Non-agriculture related
Others
Farm families Non-farm families
Where are the linkages?
(With some simplification and a focus on labour and goods/services)
Agriculture policy Other sectoral policy
Sector /vertical Sector /vertical
E.g. Price/income stabilisation E.g. Price
Marketing Marketing
Agricultural infrastructure Infrastructure
Local organizations
Municipalities
Community organizations
Rural development policy
Place based/horizontal
Infrastructure
Farm businesses Non-farm businesses Business support
Not-incorporated Agriculture related human capital
Incorporated Non-agriculture related
Others
Farm families Non-farm families
Where are the linkages?
(With some simplification and a focus on labour and goods/services)
Agriculture policy Other sectoral policy
Sector /vertical Sector /vertical
E.g. Price/income stabilisation E.g. Price
Marketing Marketing
Agricultural infrastructure Infrastructure
Local organizations
Municipalities
Community organizations
Rural development policy
Place based/horizontal
Infrastructure
Farm businesses Non-farm businesses Business support
Not-incorporated Agriculture related human capital
Incorporated Non-agriculture related
Others
Farm families Non-farm families
Where are the linkages?
(With some simplification and a focus on labour and goods/services)
Agriculture policy Other sectoral policy
Sector /vertical Sector /vertical
E.g. Price/income stabilisation E.g. Price
Marketing Marketing
Agricultural infrastructure Infrastructure
Local organizations
Municipalities
Community organizations
Rural development policy
Place based/horizontal
Infrastructure
Farm businesses Non-farm businesses Business support
Not-incorporated Agriculture related human capital
Incorporated Non-agriculture related
Others
Farm families Non-farm families
Where are the linkages?
(With some simplification and a focus on labour and goods/services)
Agriculture policy Other sectoral policy
Sector /vertical Sector /vertical
E.g. Price/income stabilisation E.g. Price
Marketing Marketing
Agricultural infrastructure Infrastructure
Local organizations
Municipalities
Community organizations
Rural development policy
Place based/horizontal
Infrastructure
Farm businesses Non-farm businesses Business support
Not-incorporated Agriculture related human capital
Incorporated Non-agriculture related
Others
Farm families Non-farm families
Where are the linkages?
(With some simplification and a focus on labour and goods/services)
Agriculture policy Other sectoral policy
Sector /vertical Sector /vertical
E.g. Price/income stabilisation E.g. Price
Marketing Marketing
Agricultural infrastructure Infrastructure
Local organizations
Municipalities
Community organizations
Rural development policy
Place based/horizontal
Infrastructure
Farm businesses Non-farm businesses Business support
Not-incorporated Agriculture related human capital
Incorporated Non-agriculture related
Others
Farm families Non-farm families
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 12
Methods: a focus on communities
Dissemination area centroid
Dissemination area boundary
Census consolidated subdivision centroid
Census consolidated subdivision boundary
Selected dissemination area centroids
50-km radius buffer zone
CCS:CCS:
Inverness, QuébecInverness, Québec
The monetary value of the flow is tabulated
for the all observations in the buffer zone
The total population is tabulated in the
buffer zone
The calculated flow per capita is assigned to
the CCS in the centre of the buffer zone
This is repeated for each CCS
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 13
Methods: data sources
Census of Agriculture 2006 • Farm expenditures at the dissemination area level
• Gross farm revenue at the dissemination area level
Census of Population 2006 • Income by source of members of a farm household (household
with a census-farm operator present), at the dissemination area level
(Agriculture-population linkage database)
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 14
Methods: nature of the flows
Estimated value of labour demand generated by the farm business, computed as the value of:
• Wages and salaries paid to non family members
• 50% of (1) Custom work, contract work and hired trucking; (2) Veterinary services, drugs, semen, breeding fees, etc.; (3) Repairs and maintenance to farm machinery, equipment and vehicles; and (4) Repairs and maintenance to farm buildings and fences
Estimated value of labour supply from the farm household to the community, computed as the value of:
• wages and salaries received by household members with a non-agriculture related job (i.e. all NAICS except 111*, 112*, 1151, 1152)
• non-farm self employment income for all members of a farm households
Interest flows and other farm expenditures flows
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 15
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 16
Labour demand
from the farm business (per capita)
Labour supply
from the farm household (per capita)
Dollars per capita
0.0 – 180
181 – 460
461 – 935
936 – 1,600
1,601 – 2,500
2,501 – 4,000
4,000 – 7,300
Dollars per capita
0.0 – 230
231 – 520
521 – 1,100
1,101– 2,000
2,001 – 3,000
3,001 – 4,000
4,001 – 7,000
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 17
Towards a framework to assess
flows: Communities with low, medium, high labour
linkages on the supply and demand side
SUPPLY from farm
household to
community
DEMAND
From farm
to community
Low Labour supply
p.c. <$100
Medium Labour supply
p.c. $100-$500
High Labour supply
p.c. >$500
Total
CCSs
Low Labour demand p.c.
<$100
409 346 29 784
Medium Labour demand p.c.
$100-$500
20 783 271 1074
High Labour demand p.c.
>$500 36 447 483
Total CCSs 429 1165 747 2341
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 18
Toward a framework to assess
flows: direction of linkages and community type
Community type
Direction
Agriculture is relatively
important in the
community
Agriculture is relatively less
important in the
community
Higher farm to community
linkages
Agriculture sector changes are
likely to have large impact
on the rural economy
Agriculture sector changes are
likely to have a small impact
on the rural economy
Higher community to farm
household linkages
Rural development is likely to
have a large impact on the
farm households
Rural development may still
have some impact on the
farm households
Small linkage in both
directions
Agricultural and rural initiatives
are likely to be disjointed
Agricultural and rural initiatives
are likely to be disjointed
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 19
Toward a framework to assess flows:
Labour linkages (number of CCSs)
Community type
Direction
Gross farm receipts per
capita =>$1,602
Gross farm receipts per
capita <$1,602
Labour D > labour S
Higher farm to community
linkages
319 CCSs
88 CCSs
Labour S > labour D
Higher community to farm
household linkages
851 CCSs 678 CCSs
Small linkage in both
directions
Labour supply and demand
p.c. <$100
… 409 CCSs
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 20
Gross farm receipts
per capita
=>$1,602
Gross farm receipts
per capita <$1,602
Labour D > labour S 319 CCSs 88 CCSs
Labour S > labour D 851 CCSs 678 CCSs
Small linkages … 409 CCSs
Gross farm receipts
per capita
=>$1,602
Gross farm receipts
per capita <$1,602
Labour D > labour S 319 CCSs 88 CCSs
Labour S > labour D 851 CCSs 678 CCSs
Small linkages … 409 CCSs
Labour linkages between the
farm sector and the community
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 21
Gross farm receipts per
capita =>$1,602
Gross farm receipts per
capita <$1,602
Labour D > labour S
Higher farm to community
linkages
Average demand p.c. = $679
Average supply p.c. = $507
D/S ratio=1.34
Average demand p.c. = $162
Average supply p.c. = $131
D/S ratio=1.24
Labour S > labour D
Higher community to farm
household linkages
Average demand p.c. = $754
Average supply p.c. = $1,432
D/S ratio=0.53
Average demand p.c. = $102
Average supply p.c. = $294
D/S ratio=0.35
Small linkages Average demand p.c. = $36
Average supply p.c. = $57
D/S ratio=0.63
Toward a framework to assess flows:
Labour linkages (number of CCSs)
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 22
Open issues
Improve some of the current measures
• Agriculture-population linkage database
• Farm corporations and their reporting of agriculture
income remain a challenge for this type of analysis
Extend the analysis to other type of linkages
(capital, land, other assets)
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 23
Conclusions
Overall, insights from the literature seems to apply to labour flows from/to farm sector and community, but not all places are the same
If “place-based” is the new approach: we need to assess the place-based agriculture-rural interface(s)
When we look at labour linkages, about 850 agricultural intensive communities have stronger linkages from the local economy to the farm households; about 320 agriculture intensive communities have stronger linkages in the opposite direction
Thank you