cse 8314 - sw measurement and quality engineering copyright 1995-2003, dennis j. frailey, all...
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CSE SW Measurement and Quality Engineering Copyright © , Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05 version 3.09Slide 3 Low Problem Demand High High Low Customer Demand Weinberg’s Model for Maturity Analysis Level 5 Needed L0 is OK L1 is OK L2 is OK L3 is OK L4 is OK What are the customer demands? How difficult is it to sell them the product? Are customer demands changing? Up or Down? Are they becoming more demanding? What are the problem demands? How hard is it to make the product? I.e., to build the software? Are they changing?TRANSCRIPT
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Slide 1CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
SMU CSE 8314 / NTU SE 762-N
Software Measurement and Quality Engineering
Module 05Choosing a Maturity
Leveland Avoiding Stagnation
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Slide 2CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Is it Always Good to Move Higher in Maturity?
• It depends on the organization– Its business– Its goals– Its resources– Its focusIn the next few slides, we will discuss Weinberg’s method of analyzing an organization to determine the most
appropriate level of maturity.
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Slide 3CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Low Problem Demand High
High
Low
Customer
Demand
Weinberg’s Model for Maturity Analysis
Level 5 Needed
L0 is OK
L1 is OK
L2 is OK
L3 is OK
L4 is OK
• What are the customer demands? How difficult is it
to sell them the product?
• Are customer demands changing? Up or Down? Are they becoming
more demanding?• What are the problem
demands? How hard is it to
make the product? I.e., to build the software?
Are they changing?
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Slide 4CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Low Problem Demand High
Mapping Present and Desired State
High
Low
Customer
Demand
Level 5 Needed
L0 is OK
L1 is OK
L2 is OK
L3 is OK
L4 is OK
Identify: Customer
Demand level and Problem Demand
level
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Slide 5CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Low Problem Demand High
Mapping Present and Desired State
High
Low
Customer
Demand
Current
Customer
Level 5 Needed
L0 is OK
L1 is OK
L2 is OK
L3 is OK
L4 is OK
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Slide 6CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Low Problem Demand High
Mapping Present and Desired State
High
Low
Customer
Demand
Current
Customer
Level 5 Needed
L0 is OK
L1 is OK
L2 is OK
L3 is OK
L4 is OK
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Slide 7CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Low Problem Demand High
Mapping Present and Desired State
High
Low
Customer
Demand
Current
Customer
New
Level 5 Needed
L0 is OK
L1 is OK
L2 is OK
L3 is OK
L4 is OK
Anticipate: Changes in
Demand level
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Slide 8CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Low Problem Demand High
Mapping Present and Desired State
High
Low
Customer
Demand
Current
Customer
New
Sophistication or complexity of a new product may require moving up a maturity level:
• Change to a more mature process
or• Lower customer
demand through lower price or lower expectations
Level 5 Needed
L0 is OK
L1 is OK
L2 is OK
L3 is OK
L4 is OK
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Slide 9CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Several Hypothetical Cases• To illustrate the
process of deciding whether to increase process maturity
• These are taken from Weinberg
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Slide 10CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case A - Baseline• The original product sold 10,000 copies at $400
ea. • The new release is generating equivalent revenue,
but costs $10 per customer to service.• The next release could lower service costs
by 20% or $2 per customer or $20,000.• But to handle the complexity of the next
release we must spend $50,000 to upgrade our process.
Upgrading maturity isn’t worth it unless the improvements will apply to future projects and
enlightened management is willing to invest in the future
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Slide 11CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case B - New Technology but Internal Impediment
• The new version will save $2 per customer. At 10,000 customers, this is $20,000 saved
– in the service manager’s budget.• New technology makes it possible to implement
a more mature process for only $10,000– but from the development manager’s budget!
The internal inertia / impediment of the organizational structure may make this difficult to do, even though it benefits the organization as a
whole.
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Slide 12CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case C - New Technology with Strong Motivation
• The new version will sell to 100,000 customers at a potential savings of $2 per customer or $200,000.
In this case, the economic argument is so strong that it may be worth going to upper
management to overcome organizational inertia.
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Slide 13CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case D - Quality as a Motivator
• Better quality would increase sales by 1000 copies at $400 per copy = $400,000 in income.
• It will cost $50,000 to upgrade the process.• Therefore the improved quality is well worth
it.
If management believes it, this is a good case.
Customer inputs helps in cases like this.
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Slide 14CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case E - Cost of Quality is Not Justifiable
• The new product will sell 10,000 copies at $4000 each = $40,000,000
• There is 1 chance in 4 of success.• It will cost us $10,000,000 to develop
with our current process.This “breakeven” proposition suggests that we
need something different ---• either improve your process maturity, or• find a bigger market for the product, or• find an easier (lower risk) new product
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Slide 15CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case F - Lower Your Maturity • We cannot find a way to produce the
product at an acceptable cost.• So we will contract the development to a
more mature subcontractor (specializing in software).
• We will lower our process maturity (or keep it the same) and still keep our business.
This is a good strategy if your product does not contain proprietary elements and software is only a
secondary part of your business.
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Slide 16CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case G - Gullible Customers / Reward for a Lousy Job
• Our current product has many problems.• A fix will cost us money and customers will
expect it free of charge.• Therefore, we will re-label the fixed version
“release 5,” throw in a few cosmetic improvements, and charge them $50 for a “discounted” upgrade.
• At 10,000 customers, this will net us $500K to correct the problem and make money too
Undemanding customers, weak competition
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Slide 17CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case H - Monopolies Lack Motivation
• HAL corporation dominates the market. Customers are stuck with them because of compatibility.
HAL does not need to improve
“Why spend money to make it better?”
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Slide 18CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Case I - Competition can Topple Monopolies
• HAL corporation was doing just fine until an upstart competitor came along with a better and fully compatible product.
• By the time HAL got out a comparable product [2 years later], they had lost 50% of their market share.
Short term stagnation can lead to long term ruin.
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Slide 19CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
So Why Do Organizations Stagnate?
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Slide 20CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Circular Arguments for Stagnation - I
[This is the classic discrimination argument used throughout history against various
minorities or outsiders]• “xxxxx’s (probably) cannot do the job so we
won’t educate them in how to do the job• so we won’t find out if they can do the job”
{for xxxxx, substitute your favorite group}
“We can’t do better so we won’t try -- so we won’t find out if we can do better”
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Slide 21CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Circular Arguments for Stagnation - II
[maybe they never really tried][maybe things have changed]
“It will never work here because we are different”
“We tried that once and it didn’t work”
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Slide 22CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Circular Arguments for Stagnation - III
[“Everyone else has it easier than I do …”]
“We are already doing the best possible job -- so if others are
doing better it must be easier for them”
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Slide 23CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Circular Arguments for Stagnation - IV
The Superhero Chronicles“Our superhero is infallible - so if we fail, it is the fault of outsiders
- or else it is impossible”
“Our superhero is infallible - so ask him or her how to improve. Don’t listen to outsiders, who don’t understand the
complexities of our business.”
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Slide 24CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Breaking the Circle• Method I - Threats of Intolerable Pain (for
example, being put out of business by a competitor)– Example: US auto companies in the 1980’s
• Method II - Enlightened and Effective Leadership– This is truly rare
• Method III - Develop Overwhelming Evidence– This doesn’t always work, but it helps
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Slide 25CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Developing Evidence• Keep data on what actually happens • Record lessons learned, & distribute them• Especially keep data on success and
failure rates• Compute the cost of failure• Benchmark with the competition and with
other successful organizations (include the super-heroes and top management on the benchmarking visit)
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Slide 26CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Data Collection is Hard• Poorly managed projects will rarely
keep data on anything, especially for historical purposes, because it– Costs them time and money, but benefits
someone else– Shows their warts and failings
• And they don’t know what to collect anyway
• So you must keep it for them– Even if they don’t know you are doing it
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Slide 27CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
How to Avoid Historical Data (1)
• Complain about the cost– Collection, storage, analysis– Morale of those being measured
• Resist consistency (inconsistency makes data useless)– Emphasize why each subunit is unique– Collect different data at each subunit– Define data vaguely – Never spend time verifying the accuracy of
the data(1) Advice for poor managers
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Slide 28CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Additional (more fundamental) Methods of
Breaking the Circle• Establish technical reviews and
invite many people outside the program to attend
• Send influential people to public seminars where they will see the work of others
Hearing others brag is harder to ignore than any technical paper.
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Slide 29CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Another Method ofBreaking the Circle
• Ask the organization, or influential people,
“How would you spot a quality problem?”
Then use their answer to find their quality problems and demonstrate them.
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Slide 30CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Trust is the key to success because it reduces the need for communication
and data, too much of which can choke the organization.
Low Maturity as a Power Hierarchy - I
Level 0 - We trust only ourselvesLevel 1 - We don’t trust managementLevel 2 - We don’t trust programmers
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Slide 31CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Low Maturity as a Power Hierarchy - II
Level 3 – Everyone is open to product information
Level 4 – Everyone is open to process information
Level 5– Everyone is open to culture information
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Slide 32CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
The Most Vicious Cycle
“We are in deep trouble because we don’t know how to develop software.
Therefore, we don’t have time to learn.
Therefore, we are always in deep trouble.”
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Slide 33CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Examples of Inertia fromPast Success
• We reuse obsolete but formerly successful code/processes (or people):–We have large volumes of successful code,
which leads to high maintenance cost for obsolete software
–BUT: Past success results in our unwillingness to change.
–PROBLEM: Past success was in an old environment that is being replaced.
People don’t always realize that the world has changed
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Slide 34CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Overcoming Inertia in a Successful Culture
• All cultures strive to honor their past (maintain foundations), and retain present success
– (I.e., nobody wants to slip backwards).• The trick is to also build toward the future.
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Slide 35CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Building Toward the Future Requires ...
Humility - lack of arroganceAccurate Memory - about the true
origins of the organization– Don’t be blinded by the myths
A vision of the future - something that will inspire people
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Slide 36CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Necessary Changes in order to Move Up in Maturity
0 to 1 : Humility (from exposure to others)1 to 2 : Ability (from training and
experience)2 to 3 : Stability (from quality management)3 to 4 : Agility (from tools and methods and
knowledge)4 to 5 : Adaptability (from human
development)
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Slide 37CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Another Vicious Cycle
These are symptoms of a poorly managed organization that is probably ripe for
trouble
•We don’t have money to plan•We can’t waste time collecting
data•We don’t have planning
experience anyway•And don’t have money to learn
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Slide 38CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Cutting This Vicious Cycle - Option 1
• Enlightened leadership sees that this will lead to failure– You can try to educate the leadership
through information about competitors, successes of others, etc.
– You can become a leader and remember what you learned here
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Slide 39CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Cutting this Vicious Cycle - Option 2
Competition forces you to change– Customers can often have a big
impact if they speak forcefully enough
– Loss of business can also help– Pain is necessary to make change in
the absence of enlightened leadership
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Slide 40CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
The Problem of Excess Ambition
OK, if we need to improve,why settle for level 2?
Let’s move to level 3 or 4!
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Slide 41CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
The Analogy
Ma, I don’t want to be anadolescent and then a
teenager! I want to become anadult right away!
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Slide 42CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
The Problem• Each level of maturity acts as a
foundation for the next level• And each involves fundamental changes
in culture• If you skip a level or go through it too fast,
it doesn’t “take”• The result is reversion to level 1• And you may not even know it!
(unconscious incompetence)
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Slide 43CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
There Is One Way ...• Motorola Electronic Systems in India
was able to start at SEI level 3 and move to level 5
• Hired all people with NO software background
– No bad habits to “un-teach”– No culture to change
• Started with the level 3 behaviors of the company’s best software group
• Moved to level 5 in a few years
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Slide 44CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
Summary• Understand the culture
– See through the excuses– See both the outsider’s view and the
insider’s view• Use models to guide your improvement
process• Choose the appropriate level of target
maturity• Be prepared to overcome vicious cycles
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Slide 45CSE 8314 - SW Measurement and Quality EngineeringCopyright © 1995-2003, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved CSE8314M05
END OFMODULE 05