currency research desk indices last 1 week ago …...usdjpy 101.2700 100.2800 1.11 usdcad 1.0537...

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Currency weekly 22 Nov 2013

Currency Research Desk

INDICES LAST 1 week ago % Change

NIFTY 5995.00 6056.00 -1.00

SENSEX 20217.00 20399.00 -0.89

NASDAQ 3411.00 3360.00 1.57

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL 16008.00 15880.00 2.19

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 2196.00 2135.00 2.30

NIKKIE 225 15381.00 15165.00 1.36

HANGSENG 23696.00 23032.00 2.91

FTSE Index 6683.00 6677.00 0.01

CROSS LAST 1 week ago % Change

EURUSD 1.3523 1.3473 0.36

GBPUSD 1.6212 1.6099 0.56

USDJPY 101.2700 100.2800 1.11

USDCAD 1.0537 1.0463 0.52

USDCHF 0.9074 0.9155 -0.88

USDSEK 6.5789 6.6535 -1.12

DOLLAR INDEX 80.7900 80.9400 -0.19

Note-Some data values are as on Friday evening

Global economic review-

Most Asian equities began the week on a positive note however, by the end of the trading week they are ending on a mixed note. On the currency space too, most emerging markets currencies depreciated by the end of the five day trading session, though back home the INR managed marginal gains against the US Dollar. As said, equity markets were mixed with Chinese equities up by over 2% and stood as one of the best performers following the optimism from the local government`s comments and steps regarding long-term reform in the country. However, we did not see any major boost to other Asian peers due to these cues. Most Asian equities recorded high volatility towards the end of the week after tracking diverged comments and rising speculation on whether or not the US Fed would taper in the near-term.From an economic data perspective, most of the economic data from Asia were mostly on a mixed to positive note.The US economy saw a host of economic readings, particularly during the middle sessions, which remained mostly on a weaker note; almost near our expectations from the previous week’s report. In some important economic data, the country saw data on TIC flows, consumer and manufacturing inflation gauge, retail sales, housing reading, weekly jobless claims and the FOMC meeting's minutes. Barring retail sales and the weekly jobless claims data, all the other economic cues came in lower than expected, which indirectly weighed on the normal movement in the US as well as the global equity and commodity indices.As of the latest quote on Friday evening (IST), the dollar index is trading nearly unchanged for the week at 80.90 whereas the major equity indices in the US are also seeing a mixed trading pattern, wherein the S&P 500 in modestly in the red, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly in the green on a weekly basis In last week’s report, we discussed the euro-zone’s monetary policy and the expected impact of the region slashing its interest rate by 0.25% on the European economy. In the analysis, we also suggested that, by looking at the current economic situation and the lower inflation numbers, an appreciating currency was unfavorable for the economy. Hence, we had expected the euro to depreciate against its major counterparts in the next week.We had also hinted at the likelihood of the situation turning unfavorable in our view, due to the depreciation in the euro’s major counterparts. As of 3 PM on Friday, Indian time, the euro is trading at $1.3513 against the US dollar, up by 17 cents from its previous weekly close. . Likewise, the euro has appreciated against the yen and the Australian dollar. However, it has depreciated slightly against the pound. During the last week, economic data from the euro-zone and Germany were on a mostly mixed note. Although Germany’s PPI data continued to remain negative, the industrial orders and trade balance data were mostly positive..

Dollar Index

Currency S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Recommendation

Dollar Index 80.03 80.39 80.79 81.20 81.79 RANGE 80.60-81.30

Fundamental Outlook-

While looking at the economic data points in the next week, we have a he large number of housing related readings along with a number of regional manufacturing indexes, consumer confidence and the durable goods order data, especially during the middle of the week. The week is expected to start with the pending home sales data from the US for the month of October. Though the survey shows a moderate near 2% increase in the index on a M/M basis, we feel that there could be a slight underperformance in the number, in-line with the existing home sales last week, which stood modestly lower than expected.


Currency Insight

The day after that could see a large number of economic data, with the housing starts and building permits data, wherein we would see a cumulative two-month reading for September and October as the previous reading was postponed due to the government shutdown. Here too, we are a little circumspect about any major gains as the October reading could disappoint slightly.

The previous reading for August saw a marginal increase in starts, though the building permits saw a dip, which could once drag down the latest reading. The housing starts data will be followed by the Housing price index data from S&P/CaseShiller. We expect the broader gains in housing prices to continue in the US for the September data as well. Recently, the US existing home sales data also underlined the fact that the median price of existing homes increased 12.8% on a Y/Y basis, marking its eleventh consecutive month of double-digit annual price gains.

The consumer confidence index is also expected on the same day, which may see a modest advance as anticipated, after the big drop in the month of October caused by the government shutdown.

Overall, looking at the different economic indicators, we feel the that US Dollar is likely to continue its weak trend for the next week as well. On one hand, a number of economic data points are likely to remain subdued or at the most increase slightly on a broader tone. However, we would like to once again add that the market movement and participation could remain low in the latter half as largely

the market liquidity would get a hit due to official government holiday.

TECHNICALSNAPSHOT:-

The Greenback as on Friday evening traded at the 80.78 level.It witnessed a high of 81.29 and then traded lower during the week.It tested a low of 80.48 but recovered during the latter end of the week.The weekly candlestick depict a doji formation ,suggesting a balance of power between both the buyers and the sellers.Though the greenback witnessed a breakout out of the downsloping channel resistance ,it has undergone a phase of consolidation.However the momentum oscillator relative strength index has slipped below the 50 mark suggesting that the greenback could be losing some momentum which it had gain a couple of week’s ago.However from a daily chart perspective the greenback continues to hover above the downsloping trend channel.The Key technical supports for the week are at 80.39 and then 80.03.The Resistances are at 81.20 followed by 81.65 levels.

Overall we could expect the greenback to trade in a range of 80.60-81.20 levels for the week .

Economic data for the week ahead.

Date Time Region Event Period Survey Prior

11/25/2013 20:30 US Pending Home Sales MoM Oct 2.0% -5.6%

11/25/2013 20:30 US Pending Home Sales YoY Oct -- 1.1%

11/25/2013 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov -- 3.6

11/26/2013 19:00 US Sept./Oct. Housing Starts Released Jointly Due to Shutdown

11/26/2013 19:00 US Housing Starts Oct 923K --

11/26/2013 19:00 US Housing Starts MoM Oct -- --

11/26/2013 19:00 US Building Permits Oct 935K --


Currency Insight

11/26/2013 19:00 US Building Permits MoM Oct -- --

11/26/2013 19:30 US S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA Sep 0.9% 0.9%

11/26/2013 19:30 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Sep 13.0% 12.8%

11/26/2013 19:30 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NSA Sep -- 164.53

11/26/2013 20:30 US Consumer Confidence Index Nov 72.1 71.2

11/26/2013 20:30 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Nov -- 1

11/27/2013 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 44866 -- -2.3%

11/27/2013 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 45231 330K 323K

11/27/2013 19:00 US Continuing Claims 42675 -- 2876K

11/27/2013 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders Oct -1.7% 3.7%

11/27/2013 19:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Oct 0.4% -0.1%

11/27/2013 19:00 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct -- 14.0%

11/27/2013 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov 60.5 65.9

11/27/2013 20:25 US Univ. of Michigan Confidence Nov F 73 72

11/27/2013 20:30 US Leading Index Oct 0.0% 0.7%

USD/INR

CURRENCY CONTRACT S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 RECOMMENDATION

USDINR-MCX-SX DEC-13 61.99 62.71 63.42 63.91 64.39 BUY RANGE 63.05-63.10 TP 63.55-63.90 SL 62.40

USDINR-NSE DEC-13 61.99 62.71 63.42 63.91 64.39 BUY RANGE 63.05-63.10 TP 63.55 -63.90 SL 62.40

MCX-SX

Contract OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE VOLUME % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST % CHANGE

Nov-13 63.0000 63.1800 61.9600 62.9300 -0.89% 2826000 -8.90% NA NA

Dec-13 63.5000 63.6700 62.4700 63.4400 -0.84% 279000 5.00% NA NAJan-14

Fundamental Outlook:

In our last weekly report, we stated that rupee would initially appreciate, though the gains might be erased during the week and the currency might trade on a weaker note. However, our view was erroneous and the rupee ended the week at 62.86, up by 26 paisa from its previous week’s close. In the beginning of the week, the rupee and all the other emerging currencies also traded higher post the election of a new Chairman for the US Fed, for which the prime candidate is Janet Yellen, who commented that the tapering of the quantitative easing programme would take place later, unless the economy recovers. However, as the week progressed and the minutes of the last Fed meeting were revealed, which stated that a tapering of the quantitative easing in the US may not take place so soon, causing volatility in the asset classes. Other conventional data barely had any impact on the rupee, which ended the week marginally higher on optimism a reduction in the current-account deficit offsetting a potential slowdown in inflows as the U.S. prepares to pare its stimulus program. We believe that the disconnect between the local equity indices and the rupee that was noticed during this week may continue in the next as well. The compression in the current-account deficit may keep the rupee supported, while equities may continue to trade lower. However, any substantial decline in the equity markets may pull the rupee lower again. From the domestic front, concessional dollar swaps for banks raising debt overseas and on deposits from Indian


Currency Insight

citizens living abroad, which are due to expire on 30th November attracted $22.7 billion as of November 20, leading to inflows of the dollar, which might help the rupee appreciate in the very near-term. The global markets might remain cautious due to the fact that there are only three working sessions in the US, which might lead to a drop in business participation. Likewise, there are a few conventional economic data release expected from Europe, while the ECB’s monetary stance may continue to weigh on the euro, which might pull the currency lower. Due to this, the dollar may appreciate, which might indirectly push the rupee lower. Finally, there has been around a 20 paisa difference between on-shore and off-shore dollar-rupee contracts, which indicates that there could be an arbitrage opportunity by which the rupee spot prices might moderately depreciate. There are a slew of data releases in the form of Eight Infrastructure Industries,fiscal deficit and the gdp number which are likely to keep the rupee trade active in the coming week. Overall, we believe that the rupee may remain mixed in the next week, though we believe that the effects of the depreciation cannot be ruled out. Hence, we recommend booking dollar-rupee derivatives for the short-term.

Economic data for the week ahead.


11/25/2013 11/29 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Oct -- 8.0%

11/29/2013 16:00 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Oct -- 7437

11/29/2013 17:30 IN GDP YoY 3Q 4.5% 4.4%

TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT:- The Indian rupee traded lower in the early part of the week when it tested a low of 61.77.However it witnessed a sharp bounce and recovered most of the losses in the second half of the week to close at 62.87 down by 33 paisa or 0.52%.Contrary to our prior week buy view we saw the rupee close marginally lower at 62.87 .As a result of this the rupee which closed higher for 5 consecutive weeks has witnessed a halt. However if look at the weekly candlestick pattern which is a doji,suggests balance of power between the buyers and the sellers. Though the weekly chart doesn’t clearly suggest the future market direction, the daily chart trend continues to remain up as the rupee has settled firmly above the major short term moving averages ,mainly the 20 day exponential moving average which is at 62.53.A consistent close above the same could mean that the short term trend is up.From a broader perspective on applying the Fibonacci retracement to the rupee which has seen a sharp fall from the 38.2% level (64.00) of the swing range (68.93-60.90) could yet again find stiff resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level 63.14 of the recent swing range (63.96-61.77).Hence for the short term we believe the rupee could trade in a sideways range of 63.40-62.05 levels.

Recommendation: RUPEE (SPOT) – BUY in the range 62.45-62.50 TP 63.15 Then 63.45 SL Below 61.90 USD-INR-DEC-MCX-SX-NSE- BUY in the range 63.05-63.10 TP 63.55 Then 63.90 SL Below 62.40


Currency Insight

EUR/USD


EURUSD

1.3320 1.3420 1.3520 1.3600 1.3680 SELL AT 1.3580 TP 1.3500 -1.3420 SL 1.3670

EURINR-MCX-SX DEC-13 84.11 84.95 85.79 86.23 86.67 BUY AT 85.35 TP 86.20-86.60 SL 84.60

EURINR-NSE DEC-13 84.11 84.95 85.79 86.23 86.67 BUY AT 85.35 TP 86.20 -86.60 SL 84.60

MCX-SX


Nov-13 85.1500 85.1600 83.8200 85.0800 -0.20% 150000 12.31% NA NADec-13 85.6500 85.8400 84.5600 85.7900 -0.14% 6225 -52.00% NA NAJan-14

Fundamental Outlook –

In last week’s report, we discussed the euro-zone’s monetary policy and the expected impact of the region slashing its interest rate by 0.25% on the European economy. In the analysis, we also suggested that, by looking at the current economic situation and the lower inflation numbers, an appreciating currency was unfavorable for the economy. Hence, we had expected the euro to depreciate against its major counterparts in the next week. We had also hinted at the likelihood of the situation turning unfavorable in our view, due to the depreciation in the euro’s major counterparts. As of 3 PM on Friday, Indian time, the euro is trading at $1.3513 against the US dollar, up by 17 cents from its previous weekly close. Likewise, the euro has appreciated against the yen and the Australian dollar. However, it has depreciated slightly against the pound. During the last week, economic data from the euro-zone and Germany were on a mostly mixed note. Although Germany’s PPI data continued to remain negative, the industrial orders and trade balance data were mostly positive. In the meanwhile, the PMI manufacturing numbers also continued to remain stable. A lot of comments and events coming in from the ECB are also weighing on the economy. The ECB though reduced its main refinancing rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.25% while it kept the overnight deposit rate for lenders who park excess cash at the central bank at zero. Policy-makers are also considering a smaller-than-normal cut in the deposit rate to -0.1Z% if more incentive is needed to reduce the deflation. If such a scenario continues in the market, the euro may trade down. As stated above, the euro’s counterparts are also holding their breath and so, we are seeing a slight appreciation in the euro. However, we believe that the currency may gradually have to trade down. As far as next week is concerned, from the economic standpoint and the central bank’s effort to keep the economic growth at least stable, the euro may drift down. Some of the conventional economic releases are surprising the market and, the other major currencies are trading down against the euro, which is making for a very bizarre situation. In the next week, Germany’s import price index, which is expected to remain in the negative, may help the euro trade down. By looking at the lower inflation, the import price index must not come in positive. The retail sales may not remain in the positive for the month of October, though a Bloomberg survey suggests positive growth. We may not see a significant change in Germany’s employment number. Coming to the euro-zone’s M3 supply, we believe that the numbers might rise for the month of October after the ECB slashed its refinancing rate by 0.25%. So, a higher money supply with modest demand may eventually pull the currency lower. Furthermore, we have the economic confidence, industrial confidence and consumer


Currency Insight

confidence data and, we believe they will remain mixed and may not be highly significant, especially after last week ZEW survey number, which remained mixed. Lastly, we have the German and euro-zone CPI numbers, which may remain in the negative. Looking at the economic events, the central bank’s measures and the market scenario, we believe that the euro may depreciate in the next week against its major counterparts.

Economic data for week ahead


11/24/2013 11/28 GE Import Price Index MoM Oct -0.30% 0

11/24/2013 11/28 GE Import Price Index YoY Oct -2.60% -0.028

11/27/2013 14:30 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Dec 7 7

11/27/2013 11/29 GE Retail Sales MoM Oct 0.4% -0.4%

11/27/2013 11/29 GE Retail Sales YoY Oct 1.3% 0.2%

11/28/2013 14:25 GE Unemployment Change (000's) Nov 0K 2K

11/28/2013 14:25 GE Unemployment Rate Nov 6.9% 6.9%

11/28/2013 14:30 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 1.7% 2.1%

11/28/2013 14:30 EC M3 3-month average Oct 2.0% 2.2%

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Business Climate Indicator Nov 10.0% -1.0%

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Economic Confidence Nov 98 97.8

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Industrial Confidence Nov -4.5 -4.8

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Consumer Confidence Nov F -15.4 -15.4

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Services Confidence Nov -3.5 -3.7

11/28/2013 18:30 GE CPI MoM Nov P 0.1% -0.2%

11/28/2013 18:30 GE CPI YoY Nov P 1.2% 1.2%

11/29/2013 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Oct 12.2% 12.2%

11/29/2013 15:30 EC CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.8% 0.7%

11/29/2013 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Nov A 0.9% --


Currency Insight

TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT- As on Friday evening(7.00 PM IST) the Euro which is at the 1.3520 level ,traded higher for most part of the week except on the Wednesday when it reached a low of 1.3413.The pullback has extended well into the weekly up-sloping trendline as depicted in the chart.From a Fibonacci perspective too the Euro which made a high of 1.3580 has seen more than 50% retracement (1.3563),suggesting that the Euro has been on a very strong pullback mode.However from a daily chart perspective the though it has breached above the 20 day exponential moving average (1.3510) it has not been able to close above the same ,suggesting that the Euro could witness selling pressure if unable to close above the aforementioned level for 2 consecutive day’s .However if does the same we could see an extended pullback which could propel the Euro to the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement level 1.3627 of the swing range (1.3832 -1.3296).Genuine buying in the Euro could happen only a weekly candle close inside the up-sloping channel as prices after breaching below the channel are trading below the lower end support which has now turned into a resistance .Till then we could expect this rise from 1.3296 to be a mere pullback. Overall for the week we could expect the Euro to trade in a range of 1.3620-1.3420 levels for the week and

recommend selling on rises.


Currency Insight

GBP/USD


GBPUSD

1.5992 1.6092 1.6190 1.6255 1.6318 BUY AT 1.6110 TP 1.6244 SL 1.6030

GBPINR-MCX-SX DEC-13 99.80 101.27 102.75 103.62 104.49 BUY AT 102.15 TP 102.88 -103.62 SL 101.50

GBPINR-NSE DEC-13 99.80 101.27 102.75 103.62 104.49 BUY AT 102.15 TP 102.88-103.62 SL 101.50

. MCX-SX


Nov-13 101.5000 102.2000 99.8400 101.9200 0.31% 23292 2.30% NA NADec-13 102.23 103.010 100.660 102.75 0.41% 6894 16.00% NA NAJan-14

Economic data for week ahead:


11/25/2013 11/29 UK Nationwide House PX MoM Nov 0.7% 1.0%

11/25/2013 11/29 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Nov 6.0% 5.8%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.8% 0.8%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK GDP YoY 3Q P 1.5% 1.5%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Private Consumption QoQ 3Q P 0.6% --

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Government Spending QoQ 3Q P 0.5% --

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Index of Services MoM Sep 0.3% 0.4%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Index of Services 3M/3M Sep 0.7% 0.6%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Total Business Investment QoQ 3Q P -- -2.7%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Total Business Investment YoY 3Q P -- -8.5%

11/29/2013 05:35 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Nov -10 -11

11/29/2013 15:00 UK Net Consumer Credit Oct 0.7B 0.9B


Currency Insight

TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT:-

As on Friday evening (7.00 PM IST)the cable currency traded at the 1.6190 level. The cable currency traded higher for most part of the week and in doing so is on the path of closing higher for the third successive week. The weekly chart depicts a falling three methods candlestick pattern could be in the the making if prices are unable to breach the 1.6200 levels on a weekly closing basis.. Unable to breach above the recent high could result in a sharp fall in the currency. On the other hand cable currency is still well within the rectangular trading band of (1.6200-1.5850).From a very short term perspective we could expect the cable currency to find stiff resistance close to the 1.6240 levels which is also the upper end of the Bollinger band on the daily chart .However from a daily chart perspective the cable currency has strong support at the 1.6090 level which is the 20 day exponential moving average.

Overall we could expect the cable currency to trade in a range of 1.6110-1.6245 levels for the week and recommend to buy on declines.


Currency Insight

USD/JPY


USDJPY

98.82 99.91 101.10 101.72 102.44 BUY AT 100.62 TP 101.72 SL BELOW 99.90

JPYINR-MCX-SX DEC-13 62.04 62.32 62.60 63.13 63.66 SELL AT 62.95 TP 62.30 SL 63.40

JPYINR-NSE DEC-13 62.04 62.32 62.60 63.13 63.66 SELL AT 62.95 TP 62.30 SL 63.40

MCX-SX


Nov-13 62.99 62.99 62.09 62.17 -2.14% 62424 1.60% NA NADec-13 63.39 63.39 62.58 62.6 -2.10% 2280 452.00% NA NAJan-14

Economic data for week ahead


11/26/2013 05:20 JN Corporate Service Px Index YoY Oct 0.9% 0.7%

11/26/2013 10:30 JN Small Business Confidence Nov -- 50.8

11/28/2013 05:20 JN Retail Trade YoY Oct 2.1% 3.1%

11/28/2013 05:20 JN Retail Sales MoM Oct -0.7% 1.8%

11/29/2013 04:45 JN Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Nov -- 54.2

11/29/2013 05:00 JN Jobless Rate Oct 3.9% 4.0%

11/29/2013 05:00 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio Oct 96.00% 95.00%

11/29/2013 05:00 JN Natl CPI YoY Oct 1.1% 1.1%

11/29/2013 05:20 JN Industrial Production MoM Oct P 2.0% 1.3%

11/29/2013 05:20 JN Industrial Production YoY Oct P 6.3% 5.1%

11/29/2013 09:30 JN Vehicle Production YoY Oct -- 13.0%

11/29/2013 10:30 JN Housing Starts YoY Oct 5.0% 19.4%

11/29/2013 10:30 JN Construction Orders YoY Oct -- 89.8%


Currency Insight

Fundamental Outlook-

In the coming week, we have a large number of economic data expected from Japan such as retail trade which increased by 3.1% last month on the back of an increase in personal consumption. We expect the positivity in the data to continue. Apart from retail trade, we have the Japanese manufacturing PMI data. The previous PMI reading for the month of October increased to 54.2 from 52.5. We expect the data to be more or less the same as the previous number. Other than the PMI data, we have the industrial production number. We expect the industrial production to increase marginally on the back of Shinzo Abe’s sustained stimulus measures to boost the economy. The housing starts may continue to grow though the pace might reduce a bit and a slower pace, which might have a slightly negative impact on the yen. Vehicle production is expected to decline marginally from its previous reading while construction orders might see an uptick on the back of lower interest rates prevailing in the country. Overall we feel broader set of readings from the Asian second largest economy are seen on the positive side which could continue supporting the broader optimistic view for the country which is largely backed by ‘Abeconomics’ theme.

We feel the Yen to continue its overall depreciation in the coming week as well against the US Dollar.

TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT:

The Japanese yen as on Friday evening (7.00 PM IST ) is

trading at the 101.15 level . As anticipated in our prior

week report the Japanese yen has traded higher for most of

the week . A breakout from the symmetrical triangle

pattern on the weekly chart has propelled the yen further

higher ,this upmove could continue further in the coming

week. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective too the

yen has breached past the 61.8 % retracement level of

100.7 and hence it looks that the yen could now make an

attempt to test the 100 % level at 103.7 of the swing range

(103.7-93.77).Looking at the Bollinger band on the weekly

charts we could clearly see that the Japanese yen has

pierced past the upper band which is at 101.00 A sustained

trade above the same could mean a Bollinger band

breakout.From a daily chart perspective the short term

moving average mainly the 5 and then 8 day ema’s are

clustered in the range of 100.30-100.60 .On a pullback we

could expect the yen to find support at those

levels.Sustaining above which we could expect it to trade

higher

Overall we could expect the Japanese yen to trade in a range of 100.60-101.80 levels for the week and

recommend buying on declines.


Currency Insight

Major Economic Data for the week:

11/24/2013 11/28 GE Import Price Index MoM Oct -0.30% 0

11/24/2013 11/28 GE Import Price Index YoY Oct -2.60% -0.028

11/25/2013 20:30 US Pending Home Sales MoM Oct 2.0% -5.6%

11/25/2013 20:30 US Pending Home Sales YoY Oct -- 1.1%

11/25/2013 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov -- 3.6

11/25/2013 11/29 UK Nationwide House PX MoM Nov 0.7% 1.0%

11/25/2013 11/29 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Nov 6.0% 5.8%

11/25/2013 11/29 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Oct -- 8.0%

11/26/2013 05:20 JN Corporate Service Px Index YoY Oct 0.9% 0.7%

11/26/2013 10:30 JN Small Business Confidence Nov -- 50.8

11/26/2013 19:00 US Sept./Oct. Housing Starts Released Jointly Due to Shutdown

11/26/2013 19:00 US Housing Starts Oct 923K --

11/26/2013 19:00 US Housing Starts MoM Oct -- --

11/26/2013 19:00 US Building Permits Oct 935K --

11/26/2013 19:00 US Building Permits MoM Oct -- --

11/26/2013 19:30 US S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA Sep 0.9% 0.9%

11/26/2013 19:30 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Sep 13.0% 12.8%

11/26/2013 19:30 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NSA Sep -- 164.53

11/26/2013 20:30 US Consumer Confidence Index Nov 72.1 71.2

11/26/2013 20:30 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Nov -- 1

11/27/2013 14:30 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Dec 7 7

11/27/2013 15:00 UK GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.8% 0.8%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK GDP YoY 3Q P 1.5% 1.5%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Private Consumption QoQ 3Q P 0.6% --

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Government Spending QoQ 3Q P 0.5% --

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Index of Services MoM Sep 0.3% 0.4%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Index of Services 3M/3M Sep 0.7% 0.6%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Total Business Investment QoQ 3Q P -- -2.7%

11/27/2013 15:00 UK Total Business Investment YoY 3Q P -- -8.5%

11/27/2013 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 44866 -- -2.3%

11/27/2013 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 45231 330K 323K

11/27/2013 19:00 US Continuing Claims 42675 -- 2876K

11/27/2013 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders Oct -1.7% 3.7%

11/27/2013 19:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Oct 0.4% -0.1%

11/27/2013 19:00 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct -- 14.0%

11/27/2013 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov 60.5 65.9

11/27/2013 20:25 US Univ. of Michigan Confidence Nov F 73 72

11/27/2013 20:30 US Leading Index Oct 0.0% 0.7%


Currency Insight

11/27/2013 11/29 GE Retail Sales MoM Oct 0.4% -0.4%

11/27/2013 11/29 GE Retail Sales YoY Oct 1.3% 0.2%

11/28/2013 05:20 JN Retail Trade YoY Oct 2.1% 3.1%

11/28/2013 05:20 JN Retail Sales MoM Oct -0.7% 1.8%

11/28/2013 07:00 CH Industrial Profits YTD YoY Oct -- 13.5%

11/28/2013 14:25 GE Unemployment Change (000's) Nov 0K 2K

11/28/2013 14:25 GE Unemployment Rate Nov 6.9% 6.9%

11/28/2013 14:30 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 1.7% 2.1%

11/28/2013 14:30 EC M3 3-month average Oct 2.0% 2.2%

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Business Climate Indicator Nov 10.0% -1.0%

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Economic Confidence Nov 98 97.8

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Industrial Confidence Nov -4.5 -4.8

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Consumer Confidence Nov F -15.4 -15.4

11/28/2013 15:30 EC Services Confidence Nov -3.5 -3.7

11/28/2013 18:30 GE CPI MoM Nov P 0.1% -0.2%

11/28/2013 18:30 GE CPI YoY Nov P 1.2% 1.2%

11/28/2013 11/30 CH Leading Index Oct -- 99.64

11/29/2013 04:45 JN Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Nov -- 54.2

11/29/2013 05:00 JN Jobless Rate Oct 3.9% 4.0%

11/29/2013 05:00 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio Oct 96.00% 95.00%

11/29/2013 05:00 JN Natl CPI YoY Oct 1.1% 1.1%

11/29/2013 05:20 JN Industrial Production MoM Oct P 2.0% 1.3%

11/29/2013 05:20 JN Industrial Production YoY Oct P 6.3% 5.1%

11/29/2013 05:35 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Nov -10 -11

11/29/2013 09:30 JN Vehicle Production YoY Oct -- 13.0%

11/29/2013 10:30 JN Housing Starts YoY Oct 5.0% 19.4%

11/29/2013 10:30 JN Construction Orders YoY Oct -- 89.8%

11/29/2013 15:00 UK Net Consumer Credit Oct 0.7B 0.9B

11/29/2013 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Oct 12.2% 12.2%

11/29/2013 15:30 EC CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.8% 0.7%

11/29/2013 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Nov A 0.9% --

11/29/2013 16:00 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Oct -- 7437

11/29/2013 17:30 IN GDP YoY 3Q 4.5% 4.4%


Currency Insight

Prepared by:-

Aurobinda Prasad ([email protected]) – Research Head

Rashmi Ranjita Sahoo ([email protected]) – Fundamental Analyst

Srikanth Rayipati ([email protected]) -Technical Analyst

Disclaimer

The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited. The information contained herein is

based on our analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness

thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments

discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions

based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary.

While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person

connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned

in this document. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-

mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their

individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment

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