22 DEC- 26 DEC 2014

W E E K L Y

R

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P

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Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

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REFERENCE RATE

(USD) 63.0670

REPO RATE 8%

REVERSE REPO 7%

CRR 4%

INFLATION 0.00%

KEY RATES As on 19/12/2014

MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK

Indian Rupee had plunged in the

initial part of the week and hit 13

month low aided by investor fears

that US Fed Reserve would start the

rate hike process that would suck

liquidity in global markets and issues

in global financial markets caused by

volatility in Russian currency Ruble.

But Fed’s decision to keep the rates

unchanged for short term again

boosted Rupee and rallied on

Thursday and it posted biggest single

day gain in seven months. Also,

Indian FX Reserves dropped $1.6 bn

during the week and RBI has been

intervening in the currency markets

to manage the volatility of the

currency.

Rupee edges up, tracking

share gains; flows key.

Forex reserves drop $1.6

billion as RBI steps in.

Dollar edges higher in wake of

Fed statement, Swiss rate

move.

Yuan slide accelerates as

China joins emerging currency

rout.

CURRENCIES PREVIOUS

RATE

CURRENT

RATE % CHANGE

USDINR 62.4850 63.4250 1.50

EURINR 77.7050 77.8175 0.14

GBPINR 98.1475 99.1825 1.05

JPYINR 52.8300 53.1525 0.61

USDINR

EURINR

USDINR last week strongly crossed 63.0000 mark and headed towards the upper band of channel

pattern but took resistance of 64.0000 mark and dragged down towards 63.5000 and closed the

week on strong note. If it holds above 63.6000 then again up move can be seen while surpassing

the strong support of 63.0000, next strong support is seen near 62.7000.

.

EURINR last week gave positive breakout of 78.2000 level and moved towards 61.8%

retracement. On daily charts, island reversal pattern is seen according to which selling can be

seen if it sustains below 77.4000 and 76.9000 may act as good support. While, sustaining above

78.2000 will negate the above view.

CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 62.9000

62.5000 62.0000 64.1000 64.8000 65.4000

EURINR 77.2000 76.6000 76.1000 78.2000 78.7000 79.4000

GBPINR 98.4000 97.8000 97.2000 99.6000 100.2000

100.8000

JPYINR 52.6000 52.0000 51.4000 53.6000

54.3000 54.9000

PIVOT TABLE

DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT BLOOMBERG

ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS

LEVEL

23-DEC-2014 7:00

PM US

Core Durable

Goods Orders

m/m

1.1% -1.1%

23-DEC-2014 7:00

PM US Final GDP q/q 4.3% 3.9%

23- DEC-2014 7:00

PM US New Home Sales 461K 458K

24- DEC-2014 7:00

PM US

Unemployment

Claims 291K 289K

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

Yen weakens as risk sentiment improves, BoJ maintains status

quo.

Real Climbs as Brazil Will Extend Support for Currency into

2015.

Canadian Dollar Weakest in 5 Years as Inflation Slows.

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DISCLAIMER