current market scenario - capstocks · bulls argument for 2016 • implementation of pay commission...
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Current Market Scenario
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100%
61.5%
50.0%
38.20%
23.6%
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\Highlights - 2015
• A year of stock specific activity
• Resurgent of Domestic Mutual Fund
• Rout in Commodity and Crude Oil
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\Sensex Annual Performance
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Year
% R
etu
rn 26
73
13
4247 47
-52
81
17
-259
30
- 5
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\2014 Performance – Other Indices
Index %
BSE Midcap 7.4
BSE Smallcap 6.8
BSE Healthcare 15.0
BSE IT 4.5
BSE FMCG 1.3
BSE Auto - 0.5
BSE Bankex - 9.9
BSE Real Estate - 13.5
BSE Metals - 31.1
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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
FII Flows FII Flows -- Equity Equity
billion
US $
17.6
-11.9
17.4
29.3
- 0.3
24.3
20.1
3.2
16.1
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\Equity Funds Net Inflows (Cr.)
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FY
Ne
t In
flo
ws 40782
1056 595- 13405
264
- 12931 - 7627
68,121 67,055 *
* Till Dec
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Crude Oil Continued its Slide in
2015
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\Bulls Argument for 2016
• Implementation of Pay Commission
• Good Monsoon
• Revival in Domestic Economy
• GST Bill will be implemented
Bears argument for 2016
• Global recession led by China
• Fail to implement key reforms by Govt.
• Bounce back of crude oil prices
• Geopolitical tensions
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Current Market Scenario
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\Sensex Hits Year Low
INDEX WATCH
INDEX 8, Jan 12, Dec % Change
Nifty 7,601 7,610 - 0.1
Sensex 24,934 25,044 - 0.4
CNX Midcap 13,288 12,807 3.7
BSE Small Cap 11,651 11,213 3.9
• Resurface of China fear
• Weak Global markets
• Exuberance in mid and small cap segment
• Large Cap stocks on free fall
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\China Concern Returns
• Chinese Stock Market hits circuit breaker
• Consistent depreciation in Chinese
currency Yuan triggers panic
• Export oriented Asian economies
expected to get affected
• China preparing for its currency to be
market driven
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\US Dollar Vs Chinese Yuan
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\Shanghai Composite Index
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China Slowdown Sparks Global
Growth Fear
• Macro data from China indicates sustained
slowdown in economy
• Global growth will be affected significantly
due to China slowdown
• Many multinational companies depend
China for their business
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\Stocks to Focus
• Growth stocks will continue to attract
buyers
• Domestic dependent companies to show
improved performance
• Export oriented companies with differentiated
products to do well
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\Turnaround in Power Sector
• Improved availability of fuel like coal and
gas at attractive prices
• Many states has accepted to join “UDAY”
scheme for financial restructuring of
distribution companies
• Power Sector will be the first one to show
visible turnaround under Modi Government
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\US Fed Increases Interest Rate
2006
2015
0.25 % hike
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\Any news is Bad for Crude Oil
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\Budget to give Positive Surprise
• Information from sources indicate Budget
to be a growth oriented
• Fiscal consolidation may be relaxed
• Key sectors like agri, infra, education to
get more allocation
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\Events to Watch
• Global developments
• Earnings season
• Budget expectations
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Thank You