«current npp projects in turkey & risk management» · pdf file«current...

«Current NPP Projects in Turkey & Risk

Management»

08.09.2016

Vienna

IAEA

IAEA, Technical Meeting on Risk Management in NPP Construction, 6-8 September 2016

Barış GÜNER Turkish Atomic Energy Authority Head of the Construction Group (Akkuyu NPP Licensing Project )

AKKUYU NPP Licensing Project:

Head of the Construction Group

Group membership: Deputy Chairman of

Site Group, member of Specific Design

Principles Group and Legislations Group

SİNOP NPP Licensing Project:

Member of Site Group

Participant Intro (TURKEY – TURKISH ATOMIC ENERGY AUTHORITY – DEPARTMENT of NUCLEAR SAFETY)

Barış GÜNER

- Civil Engineer

- Business Administration

(B.B.A.)

- MBA

- Earthquake Engineer

(M.Sc.)

(+)

Nuclear Safety Inspector

Publications:

B. Güner, “Six Sigma Methodology and Case Studies in Construction Industry”, Master Thesis (2010).

B. Güner, A. Menekşe, A. A. Özacar ve Z. Gülerce, “Determination of Earthquake Recurrence Parameters for North

Anatolian and East Anatolian Fault Zone”, 3. Turkey Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, İzmir",

(2015).

B. Güner, "Comparison of Seismic Hazard Assessment Applications for Nuclear Facilities in terms of Different

Countries Perspectives", Master Thesis (expected 2016).

B. Sayın, B. Uçak, B. Güner, B. İşcan, and A. Akgöz, “Comparison of Aircraft Impact Assessment Regulations &

Applications for Nuclear Power Plants in terms of Different Countries Perspectives and Structural Analysis”, XI.

National Nuclear Science and Technology Congress, Kuşadası (12-14 October 2016)

B. Güner, B. İşcan, B. Sayın, B. Uçak and A. Akgöz, “Evaluation of Lessons Learned from Fukushima Accident based

upon Structural Design and External Events”, XI. National Nuclear Science and Technology Congress (12-14 October

2016) 2

PART - I

Current NPP Project in Turkey

CONTENT

3

PART - II

Risk Management

• Aim & Focus Areas

• Identification of Project Specific Risks

• Project Specific Risk Management Examples

• Conclusion

PART-I

CURRENT NPP PROJECT

4

Current NPP Projects in Turkey

SİNOP

AKKUYU

5

VVER-1200 (AES-2006)

AKKUYU NPPs PROJECT

History of Project:

“Akkuyu Site” is the only licenced site for NPP’s (in 1976)

Up to 2009, four attempts but NPP was not built.


Current Status (after 2010)

Russian – Turkey Partnership in Akkuyu NPPs

(12 May 2010) Signing of Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and

the Government of the Republic of Turkey on cooperation in relation to the construction and

operation of a nuclear power plant at the Akkuyu site in the Republic of Turkey.

Project: Akkuyu NPP construction in Turkey (units 1, 2, 3, 4) 4 x 1200 MWe VVER (AES 2006

Design)

(TENTATIVE SCHUDULE FOR AKKUYU)

Activity

Submission

Date

Approval

Date

Approval of updated site license report (SITE) May, 2012 Dec, 2013

Approval of site parameters report (SITE PARAMETERS) Dec., 2014 Oct, 2016

Approval of limited work permit (LWP) Dec, 2016 June., 2017

Approval of Construction License application (CL) June., 2018

6

SİNOP NPPs PROJECT

History of Project:

1975 - Sinop Site is one of the sites evaluated by Turkish Electricity Authority (TEK)

for first NPP Project but Akkuyu Site selected.

1978 - Selection of second NPP site in 1978. Sinop Site was amongst the candidate

sites.

2004 - Turkish Atomic Energy Authority (TAEK) conducted a site selection study and it

determined as the most promising site for the installation of a Nuclear Technology

Center.


Current Status:

Japanese Consortium (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Itochu and GDF-Suez) – Turkish Partnership in

Sinop NPP

(22nd of August 2012) “Owner” status was granted to Electricity Generation Co. (EÜAŞ) (Turkish part –

State-owned enterprise) will be a shareholder in Project Company.

(3rd of May 2013) Turkey and Japanese Government signed an IGA* on to cooperate for the construction of

Sinop NPP and development of Nuclear Industry in Turkey. Negotiations are being carried out for finalization

of a HGA** to establish a Project Company for the implementation of the Sinop NPP Project with the

Japanese Consortium (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Itochu and GDF-Suez)

(5th of October 2013) EÜAŞ start site studies.

(September 2014) EÜAŞ currently conducting studies for the determination of the seismicity of the site on

land and sea. Up to now, TAEK had conducted 9 inspections during these studies.

Project & Design: Japanese Consortium proposes an NPP comprised of 4 units of ATMEA-1 (ASN and

IRSN completed an assessment of ATMEA-1 generic design in 2012)

(* Inter-Governmental Agreement ** Host Governmental Agreement) 7

PART-II

RISK MANAGEMENT

8

Aim & Focus Areas

9

Focus of the presentation (mainly regulatory perspective)

1. Turkey’s experiences related to risk management for nuclear new-build

construction project

2. Especially

- Risk Identification (Project Specific Possible Risks)

- Risk Management & Risk Response Planning

- Our Future Needs

Aim of the presentation

- to share our experiences between Member

States (regulatory point of view),

Albert Lester (2014), Project Management, Planning, and Control Managing Engineering, Construction, and

Manufacturing Projects to PMI, APM, and BSI Standards (Sixth Edition)

Generic risk categories

Types of risks in the construction industry (Al-Bahar, 1990) 10

Identification of Project Specific Risks

11

AKKUYU NPPs Specific Risk Identification

Political & Environmental Risks

a. Political risks

o “Aircraft crisis” between Turkey & Russian Federation

o Possible effects of politically unstable neighbouring countries (Iraq,

Syria etc.) in Middle East

b. Legal basis risks (legislation infrastructures related risks)

o Turkish legislations are not fully compatible with nuclear projects

(e.g. Olive Cultivation Law, Construction Inspection Law, Coastal

Law etc.)

o Nuclear Energy Law & Liability Law (new laws & not finalized)

o Complexity of “licensing basis list”


12


Political & Environmental Risks

a. Political

o Turkey – Russian Federation “aircraft crises”

(November 2015)

(December 2015)

(August 2016)

Undesired Situation

Happy Ending

Turkey and Russia have

mutual interests.

There are deep-rooted

strong relations and

cooperation between two

country.



Economic & Financial risks

a. Current & future economic situation in Russian Federation & Turkey

b. Construction Cost Overruns / Cost Estimation

OECD (2016), Inflation (CPI) (indicator). doi: 10.1787/eee82e6e-en (Accessed on 30 August 2016)

http://www.worldbank.org/eca/pubs/rer35_ENG.pdf

13



Financial risks

a. Current & future economic situation in Russian Federation & Turkey

b. Construction Cost Overruns / Cost Estimation

14

Sola M. Talabi, «Improving Cost

and Schedule Performance on

Large Energy Infrastructure

Deployment Projects:

Establishment of Best Practices for

Risk Management and

Organizational Learning in Nuclear

Projects Post-Fukushima»



Schedule Overruns / Construction Delays

15

Mycle Schneider,

Antony Froggatt,

«World Nuclear

Indutry Status

Report» July,

2016

Ch

ern

ob

yl,

1986

Fu

ku

sh

ima,2

011

TM

I,1979


16


Regulatory body related

risks

a. Regulatory uncertainties

b. Lack of experiences,

c. Full independency of RB

Other Possible Risks

a. Technical Support / TSO

b. Design Issues & Design Changes

c. Supply Chain Variability

d. Site Specific possible risks

o External Natural Events related risks (Earthquake & Tsunami)

o External Human Induced Events (Aircraft Impact Assessment etc.

related risks)

Project Specific Risk Management Examples

SİNOP NPPs Risk Management Examples

17

CONCLUSIONS

18

We shouldn't be PESSIMISTIC /

OPTIMISTIC

We don’t have fully functional «systematic»/»formal» risk

management system

We probably need proper tools & software and human resource in

order to operate risk management system

We should be

REALISTIC

Unproven OR first of a kind

design

Proven Design /

Reference Plant

Our Possible Future Needs

There is no «learing curve» considering

CONSTRUCTION COST & SCHUDULE OVERRUNS

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION !

Barış GÜNER Head of the Construction and Fire Protection

Group (Akkuyu NPP Licensing Project)

Civil Engineer / Nuclear Safety Inspector

Phone: 0090 (312) 295 88 54

E-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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