.The 3 Hour Investor newsletter. V18 2016-Oct-08

Current Portfolio Valuation. (up 29% per annum)

Portfolio Valuation 2016/Oct/05 is $273,728 (down about 1%). According to Lincoln the portfolio is

increasing at a rate of 28.94% per annum.

Comment. We now have 9 stock holdings.

Losers >10% -

Losers 5.1%-10% 1

Losers 0%-5% 1

Gainers 0%-5% -

Gainers 5.1%-10% 2

Gainers10.1% - 20% 2

Gainers 20%-30% -

Gainers 30%-40% 1

Gainers .40% 1

Starting Portfolio Value $250,000

Less Capital Losses realised $-8,015

Add realised capital gains -

Add unrealised capital Gains $26,690

Add Cash Received in Dividends $2,053

Total Current value $273,728

Portfolio comment. The portfolio had a down week. Having said that the portfolio is doing nicely. It

would be amazing to keep this level of performance up over the long term

Status of US Markets on 2016-July-23.

Dow. Closed RED for the week futures Green on Saturday

S&P 500 was Red for the week. Futures is weirdly at 0.00 on Saturday.

Nasdaq. Red for Week. Futures Green

Russell 2000 Red for week, Futures Red

Vix….has jumped quite a bit. Although red for Saturday…I still think this is a RED signal for us

Status of Australian Markets

All Ordinaries Index. Closed in RED

Midcap 50 closed in RED

Small Ords closed RED

Volatility Index up again, a Red signal.

In Summary Red, RED, RED. This is not a rising market. This is not a market in which to use active

trading. If brave you might try finding rising stocks in some rising sub sectors…not for newsletter

portfolio though

Comments on Star and Borderline Stocks.

Note…this table has been reformatted again, hopefully

to make it easier to read and if required to take action

Stocks in Sell Territory. If I had these stocks I should have sold out.

Stocks that closed Green for week AND are rising at above 20% per annum (based on ROAR). In other words worth thinking about as a buy.

Star Stocks BAP, BKL, RCG

Star Stocks HVN, RFG, SRV, VTG

Borderline Stocks APE, OFX, REA, TGR, TPM, VOC,

Borderline Stocks BLX, CCP, JBH, WEB

Note…all other Star and Borderlines are in hold territory.

Charts worth thinking about.

Last week we mentioned “TPM has dropped from a high of just under $13 end July to close

at 8.12 this week. I personally held this stock and was caught in the quick decline and sold

out at a bit over $9.00 to watch it decline another dollar. The chart doesn’t look good. The

chart seems at odds with the fundamentals…for example Lincoln values the stock at $11.66.

Even so I’d sit out until the market starts to like this stock.”….TPM since has dropped further

this week to close at $7.77. That’s a dramatic decline. If you held this stock I hope you sold

out.

This week BAP hit its sell signal. I had this stock in my personal portfolio and sold out (at a

nice profit). Look…the stock may be going through gyrations due to a whole range of things

including a capital raising, perceptions of overvalue, buying and selling by significant

shareholders…there may be many opinions on this stock. All I really know is that volumes

are up and the price is down a long way from its recent high. So I sold out and if it turns

around and goes back up…I might evaluate the stock to buy back in again.

RCG also its sell signal this week. I don’t like the look of the chart and would sell if I held this

stock.

Selling Report. All Newsletter portfolio stocks are in the “hold territory” on our charts.

All stocks are growing at above 20% (on 6 month ROAR). RFF looks like it might break below the

20% target line…however it’s still well above its sell signal so we’ll continue to hold for now.

Buying Report.

No buys this week…and as previously mentioned…we plan to sit out this week

Stocks assessed as suitable for purchase if

conditions are right this week This list has changed. This week we feature star stocks growing at above 20% on 6 month ROAR and

which closed green for the week.

Stock Chart Score out of 31

Comment Decision

HVN**

Comfortably above our 20% ROAR target and yet the HMMA shows quite a bit of volatility

Worth evaluation a as potential buy

RFG **

Again above the 20% ROAR target. HMMA shows volatility, however in this current year shows a reasonably nice looking rise

Worth evaluation a as potential buy

SRV **

ROAR has peeped above the 20% target. A nice gap is emerging in the HMMA.

Worth evaluation a as potential buy.

VTG **

One of the better performing stocks this year Nice HMMA and easily beats our ROAR target

Evaluate as a potential buy

Unless there’s a strong and definite move next week in US markets over several days which is then

followed by Australia..I’m sitting out. If the solid upwell starts again…perhaps one of the above is

worth attention.

Bonus Charts: Have people spotted something in the world

of house furnishings? Is this a consequence of all the

building of apartments?

In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart Comment

BLX. After a volatile couple of years looks like it might maybe ready to swing upwards. Closing green for the week this borderline stock has just touched ROAR 20% growth…can it keep going.

OFX. A tragic decline. If you held this stock I hope you sold upon tripping of sell signals.

TPM…another tragedy..down from near $13 to current $7.77 in just a few weeks. This stock appears to have good fundamentals. Lincoln values the stock at $11.66 (consensus $10.65) it trades in a 2017 forecast PEG of just 0.6 Personally might be worth watching but only if it starts rising back strongly and “crosses”

Parting comment

Remember the basics.

Active investing is simple

Look for stocks that have the following features.

o Good fundamentals.

o Growing prices (ROAR above 20%)

Buy them in a growing market.

o All 3 major US indices close up for the week.

o Futures looks positive

Sell out if the stocks hit a sell trigger…keep that capital safe to re-invest in the above

What happens if we get a “big bear market…where everything goes down”

Every time our sell signal gets hit…we’ll sell out. Put the cash safely in government

guaranteed bank.

And wait until the market turns and we get our green signals.

Perhaps I’ll add to that.

In a sustained down market…which..who knows might be coming soon.

Then it might be time to turn into a “value dividend income investor”

Here we switch strategies and look for stocks that suit income investing…this might be the

place to keep our capital performing as the market moves down towards a low bottom. We

look for survivor stocks that pay a dividend, have strong balance sheets, are not mining

stocks and have a low price to assets ratio. A topic for a (maybe near future?) version of this

newsletter.

Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.

I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll mark the ones that I own with (**)