current safety level and overall goals for improvement · and glass cockpit generation, the 4th one...

X. Champion01/06/2016

Current safety levelCurrent safety leveland overall goals forand overall goals for

improvementimprovement

By Xavier ChampionCommission Aéronautique Civile (CAC)


Fatalities Occurrence CategoriesFatalities Occurrence CategoriesBoeing (since 2000) and Airbus(since 2013) have issued each year their

statistical analysis on jet aircraft accidents and have classified occurrencecategories according the number of fatal accidents by million of flights butalso by number of fatalities ;

there are 4 main categories: - LOC : loss of control - CFIT control flight into terrain - RE runway excursion - unexplained accidents

they have also identified relation between rate of occurrence andtechnology ,having classified aircraft by generation (the third one is FMSand Glass Cockpit generation, the 4th one is with flight enveloppeprotection);

Nota: in the following figures , doted lines means that less of 1 million flighthours by year has been made in the involved group;

Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 2


Fatalities occurrence categoriesFatalities occurrence categories



Fatalities occurrence categoriesFatalities occurrence categories Number of Fatal accidents Number of Fatalities

1994-2003 2004-2013 1994-2003 2004-2013

TOTAL 105 72 6795 3906

LOC 33 16 2234 1576

CFIT 24 16 1822 804

RE 16 17 192 796

Take off 3 4 65 38

Ground operations - 7 - 8

Mid Air collision 2 2 420 156

FuelTank burst 2 0 231 0

Runway incursion 3 0 121 0

Unknown 6 3* 502 202*

* MAS 370 notincluded



Loss of Control Loss of Control

Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?

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Loss of Control- recommandationsLoss of Control- recommandations

• Human error is the main cause; see CAA report CAP 1036 , 776 and681)

• Recommandations: - aid for decision: provide to pilot a:c situation versus the flight

envelop limits; - lack of positionnal awareness: provide full automatic flight

envelop protection ;flight envelope protection must remain effectivefor all combination of failures non extremely remote;(today,extremely improbable)

- autopilot must remain operative (with degraded performanceseventually) in case of system failure as much as possible.



CFIT Control flight into terrainCFIT Control flight into terrain

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RE Runway excursionRE Runway excursion

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Runway Excursion Recommandations Runway Excursion Recommandations

• Recommandations: - improve pilot information by a presentation of energy situation; nota: this may induce an increase of go around and development

of an automatic go around because experience show that go aroundwith all engine operative is not as safe as it should be;(see BEA reporton this subject)

- increase reliabilty of thrust reverser and ground spoiler system tono more than 1 failure by 1 million of flights;



Unexplained accidentsUnexplained accidents

• Today ICAO recommandations: - by NOV 2017, A/C will transmit its position every 15 minutes.

- By 2018 , autonomy of DFDR and CVR locator increased from30 to 90 days.

- By 2021 , for new production A/C, either recorders with capability to be ejected; or transmission by satellite of data

Timing has to be improved and priority given to long range A/C

Commission Aéronautique civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050?

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ConclusionConclusion

• systems are succesfully monitored and there is practically no moreactive failure;

• reliability of flight enveloppe protection have to be increased; theirloss has to be extremely improbable;

• in term of automatic guidance,only automatic go around has to bedevelopped;

• improved data recording including audio and video andtransmission by satellite; unexplained accidents is no more acceptable

BUT• the challenge is to be ready to face to unforeseen situations and it’s

the main role of human crew;• automatism has to be developed to help crew to do synthesis and

manage the flight;

Commission Aviation civile de l’AAE (CAC)Will Air Transport be Fully Automated by 2050? 11

current safety level and overall goals for improvement · and glass cockpit generation, the 4th one...

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