current situation in turkish steel industry & outlook€¦ · development of turkish economy,...
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CURRENT SITUATION IN TURKISH STEEL INDUSTRY & OUTLOOK
88th OECD Steel Committee Meeting
Dr. Veysel Yayan Secretary General
Turkish Steel Producers Association
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Development of Turkish Economy, Construction, Manufacturing and Steel Industries (%)
2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP Construction Manufacturing Steel Industry
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP 9 8,8 2,2 4 2,9 6,1 2,9 7,4 2,8 0,9
Construction 17,1 11,5 0,6 7,2 2,2 4,9 5,4 9,0 -2,1 -8,6
Manufacturing 13,3 10 1,9 3,8 3,7 5,9 3,8 9,1 1,1 0,1
Steel Industry 15,2 17 5,2 -3,4 -1,8 -7,4 5,2 13,2 -0,6 -9,6
Steel Using Industries - Construction
3
17,1
11,5
0,6
7,2
2,2
4,9 5,4
9,0
-2,1
-8,6 -10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: TurkStat
Steel Using Industries - Manufacturing
4
13,3
10
1,9
3,8 3,7
5,9
3,8
9,1
1,1
0,1 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: TurkStat
Industrial Production Index
5 Source: TurkStat
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
GDP Growth Rate (%)
6
2,1
4,0
2,9
4,0
3,2
7,4
2,8
0,9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: TurkStat
Turkey’s Total Steel Trade (million tons)
7 Source: TurkStat
14,5 15,2
16,6
15,2
14,1
13,0 13,4
14,4
17,8
17,6
10,4 9,9
11,1 14,0
13,0
18,1
16,5
15,3
13,6
12,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Export Import
Turkey’s Net Total Steel Export (milion tons)
8 Source: TurkStat
4,1
5,3 5,5
1,2 1,1
-5,1
-3,1
-0,9
4,2 5,6
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Turkey’s Total Steel Export/Import Ratio ($), %
9
104,7
116,6
124,2
95,5 94,1
66,3
74,1
82,9
111,8
121,2
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Crude Steel Production of Turkey (Mt) & y-o-y Growth (%)
10
29,1 34,1 35,9 34,7 34,0 31,5 33,2 37,5 37,3 33,7 5,2 5,9
15,2
17,0
5,2
-3,4
-1,8
-7,4
5,2
13,2
-0,6
9,6
12,7
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019-2m 2020-2m
Production Growth (%)
Turkey’s Crude Steel Production Capacity, Production (mt) & Capacity Utilisation (%)
11
68,2
72,4 73,2
70,4
67,8
62,5
64,4
73,2
71,9
68,2
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Production Capacity CU %
Turkey’s Finished Steel Production (Mt)
12
26,3
31,9 34,3
36,4 36,1 36,9 36,9 39,1 38,6
33,7
4,6
21,5
7,3 6,2
-0,9
2,3 -0,2
6,2
-1,1
-12,7
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Production Change %
6,3
Turkey’s Finished Steel Consumption (Mt)
13
23,6
26,9 28,5
31,3 30,7
34,4 34,1 36,1
30,6
26,0
12,4 14,2
5,6
10,0
-1,8
11,8
-0,9
5,8
-14,9 -15,4
-25,0
-15,0
-5,0
5,0
15,0
25,0
35,0
45,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Consumption Change %
4,1
Conclusion
• During the first half of 2019, protectionist policies and contraction in domestic demand affected steel consumption negatively.
• In this respect, average steel consumption decreased 32% in the first half of the year. In the second half, consumption increased rapidly. Because of the economical stability measures put in the practice by the Government, particularly during the last quarter of the year, increase in consumption reached to 36%. Despite the significant decline in exports in the second half, due to the improvement in domestic demand, the decrease in production came to the modest level and has been 9.6% by the end of the year.
• The improvement in production, which started in the last quarter of the second half, continued in the first months of 2020, but the 17% increase in January 2020 fell to 8% due to the coronavirus related to contraction in international and domestic demand.
• In the coming months, we expect the contraction in both the international market and domestic demand which will also have a negative impact on domestic production.
• Even under this conditions, considering the base effect, it is expected that, the consumption and production to increase 5% in 2020.
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