current state of america's food product manufacturing market 2015

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Food Product Manufacturing Research Report

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The Current State of America’s Food Product Manufacturing Market

MASHBURN REPORT

January 2015

Food Product Manufacturing Research Report 1

About the AuthorLee Mashburn is an accomplished business-to-business marketing and product management executive who has helped companies like SAP, SSA Global, and Honeywell to transform and grow into market leadership positions.

Currently, Lee is Vice president of Global Marketing for Spinnaker Support, a leading provider of third-party maintenance and managed services for SAP and Oracle software applications.

Lee has captained numerous corporate-wide strategic and marketing planning processes. Leveraging available market research data, Lee and his teams have astutely analyzed to uncover the optimal market targets to attack.

Lee has developed his “Mashburn Report” series in order to provide a more insightful and cost-effective product for business professionals and investors who wish to supplement the market data they have traditionally used - in order to make more informed, confident, and timely business decisions.

The Mashburn Reports are available for:‣ Durable Goods Manufacturing Overview Report‣ Primary Metals Manufacturing‣ Fabricated Metals Manufacturing‣ Machinery Manufacturing‣ Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing‣ Electrical Equipment Manufacturing‣ Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

‣ Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Overview Report‣ Food Product Manufacturing‣ Beverage & Tobacco Product Manufacturing‣ Paper Product Manufacturing‣ Petroleum & Coal Product Manufacturing‣ Chemical Product Manufacturing‣ Plastics & Rubber Product Manufacturing

2Food Product Manufacturing Research Report

3

Introduction

This report addresses questions like:‣ What is the current state of America’s food product

manufacturing industry?

‣ How does the food product manufacturing sector rank against other durable and nondurable goods manufacturing industries?

‣ Which key financial and performance metrics are important to track? Why? What are the current states of those key metrics? How have they trended over the past decade - and particularly in 2014?

‣ What data sources have been leveraged to support the information contained in this Mashburn Report?

‣ What is the MASHBURN RATING? How is it used to monitor and compare the current health of various manufacturing industry segments?

Mashburn Reports empower those involved with manufacturing markets:‣ Finance, procurement, and IT executives‣ Marketers and product managers‣ Business analysts‣ Strategic and operational planners‣ Industry consultants‣ Venture capitalists


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WHOLESALE TRADE RETAIL TRADEMANUFACTURING

Merchant, Durable Goods•Motor Vehicles, Parts, & Supplies•Furniture & Home Furnishing•Lumber & Construction Materials•Pro & Commercial Equipment•Metal & Mineral•Household Appliances & Electronics•Hardware, Plumbing, & Heating•Machinery Equipment & Supplies•Miscellaneous

Merchant, Nondurable Goods• Paper & Paper Products• Drugs, Druggists, Sundries• Apparel, Piece Goods, Notions• Grocery & Related Products• Farm Product Raw Material• Chemical & Allied Products• Petroleum, Petroleum Products• Alcoholic Beverage• Miscellaneous

Wholesale, Electronic Market•Business-to-Business•Trade Agents & Brokers

Durable Goods•Wood•Nonmetallic Mineral•Primary Metals•Fabricated Metals•Machinery•Computer & Electronics•Electric Equipment, Appliances•Transportation•Furniture•Miscellaneous

In-Store•Motor Vehicles, Parts, & Supplies•Furniture & Home Furnishing•Electronics & Appliances•Building & Garden Equipment•Food & Beverage•Health & Personal Care•Gasoline Stations•Clothing & Clothing Accessories•Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Games•General Merchandise•Miscellaneous

Non-Store•Electronic Shopping•Mail Order Houses•Vending Machine Operators•Direct Selling Fuel Dealers

Nondurable Goods•Food•Beverage & Tobacco•Textile Mills & Products•Apparel•Leather•Paper•Printing•Petroleum & Coal•Chemical•Plastics & Rubber


Sample of Data Sources

‣Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)

‣Quarterly Financial Report (QFR)

‣Employment Situation Report

‣Job Openings and Labor Turnover

‣Producer Price Index

‣Consumer Price Index

‣Labor Productivity and Cost

‣ Import/Export Price Index

‣Gross Domestic Product

‣Personal income

‣ Industrial Production

‣Capacity Utilization


Performance Indicators Tracked

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Mashburn Reports analyze and chart dozens of key financial and operational performance indicators, including:

Employment Situation‣Employment level

‣Average hours worked

‣Average earnings

‣Job openings

‣Labor turnover

Consumer Spend‣Personal consumption expenditures

‣Personal income

Output & Inventories‣New & unfilled orders

‣Value of shipments

‣ Inventory levels

‣ Industrial productivity

‣Capacity utilization

Financial Statements‣Net sales

‣Cost of sales & operations

‣Operating & net income

‣Assets & liabilities

‣Shareholders’ equity

‣Net working capital

Price & Cost Indexes‣Consumer price

‣Producer price

‣Labor productivity & cost

‣ Import/export price

Misc. Metrics‣Cash-to-cash cycle

‣Current ratio

‣Quick ratio

‣Return on assets‣Return on sales


Sponsored by

Brief Overview of America’s Manufacturing Market

MASHBURN REPORT

January 2015


America’s Manufacturing Market Size, 2014

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Durable Goods48.3%

Nondurable Goods48.3%

By Value of Shipmentsper the M3 report

$5.98 trillion2.5% y-o-y growth

Durable Goods47.8%


By Total Salesper the QFR report

$6.90 trillion2.7% y-o-y growth

By Employee Levelper the BLS employment report

12.24 million1.5% y-o-y growth

Durable Goods63.4%



Sub-market NAICS2014 Shareper value of shipments

Key words

Wood Products 321 3.3% sawmills, veneer, truss, wood containers, pre-fab

Nonmetallic Mineral Products 327 3.7% clay, pottery, glass, cement, gypsum

Primary Metals 331 11.2% iron and steel mills, aluminum, foundries

Fabricated Metal Products 332 12.4% forging, stamping, cutlery, hand tools, boilers, tanks

Machinery 333 15.0% agriculture, mining, industrial

Computer & Electronic Products 334 12.0% computer, peripheral, communications, audio, video

Electrical Equipment & Appliances 335 4.3% lighting, household appliance, electrical equipment

Transportation 336 29.5% motor vehicle and parts, aerospace, railroad, ships

Furniture & Related Products 337 2.4% household and office furniture, kitchen cabinets, window treatments

Miscellaneous 339 6.1% medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, silverware, sporting goods

Durable Goods Manufacturing Market

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Durable goods are products designed to last at least three years; bigger ticket items like automobiles, televisions, and refrigerators. These products account for roughly 15% of consumer spending.


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Durable Goods

Percent of Total Value of ShipmentsDec 2013 thru Nov 2014

$2.9 trillion+4.3% year-over-year growth

Transportation29.5%

Machinery15.0%

FabMetals12.4%

PrimaryMetals11.2%

Other15.5%

Computer &Electronics

12.0%Electrical4.3%

Value of Shipment Index CY 2006 thru CY 2014

This index enables comparison of industry-specific value of shipment trends, since 2006. The line colors map to the doughnut chart, i.e., black refers to computer & electronics in both charts.


Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Market

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Soft drinks, vegetables, shoes, paper bags, soap, and motor vehicle tires. These are examples of manufactured nondurable goods. These goods are typically designed to last less then three years. Nondurables account for about 25% of all personal spending. In contrast to the volatility found in durable goods sales, nondurables orders grow at a more stable rate during both good and bad economic times.

Sub-market NAICS 2014 Share per Value of Shipments Key Terms

Food Products 311 25.6% animal food, grain, sugar, vegetable, dairy, seafood

Beverage & Tobacco Products 312 4.6% soft drinks, bottled water, brewery, tobacco

Textile Mills 313 1.0% fiber, yarn, fabric, thread

Textile Products 314 0.8% carpet, rugs, linen, rope

Apparel Manufacturing 315 0.5% hosiery, socks, cut and sew

Leather & Allied Products 316 0.2% leather, hide, footwear, handbag, purse

Paper Manufacturing 322 5.6% pulp, paper, paper bags, stationary, sanitary

Printing & Related Activities 323 2.5% commercial printing, books

Petroleum & Coal Products 324 27.3% refineries, asphalt paving, roofing, lubricants

Chemical Manufacturing 325 24.5% petrochemical, resin, pharmaceutical, paint, soap, ink

Plastics & Rubber Products 326 7.4% plastics, pipe, foam, plastic bottles, tires, hoses


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Nondurable Goods

Value of Shipment Index CY 2006 thru CY 2014

This index enables comparison of industry-specific value of shipment trends, since 2006. The line colors map to the doughnut chart, i.e., black refers to petroleum in both charts.

Chemical24.5%

Petroleum25.9%

Food25.6%

Other6.4%

Plastics & Rubber7.4%

B&T4.6%

Paper5.6%

Percent of Total Value of ShipmentsDec 2013 thru Nov 2014

$3.1 trillion+0.5% year-over-year growth


TransportationB

MachineryB

Primary MetalsC+

Plastics & RubberB-

Food ProductsC+

Fabricated MetalsC

Computer & ElectronicsC-

PaperD+

ChemicalD

ElectricalD

Petroleum & CoalF

Beverage & TobaccoD-

2014 Mashburn Industry Health Ratings, Manufacturing

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Food Product ManufacturingNAICS 311

$2 trillionAnnual revenue generated by all global food product

manufacturers

32%Approximate United States

share of worldwide food product manufacturing market

21,000Number of United States

food product manufacturing companies


WORLDWIDE OVERVIEWCompanies in this industry manufacture and process a wide variety of foods, including meat, seafood, dairy products, fruits and vegetables, milled grains and oilseeds, baked goods, and candy. Worldwide, retail sales of processed foods total nearly $2 trillion. Western Europe, the US, and the Asia/Pacific region are the largest processed food markets. China is the fastest-growing market by volume, according to Euromonitor International.

The US food manufacturing industry consists of about 21,000 companies with combined annual revenue of about $650 billion and is expected to grow at a low rate over the next two years. Key growth challenges include dependance on large customers and increasing competition.

Demand is driven by food consumption, which depends on population growth. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations, because products are commodities subject to intense price competition. Companies compete largely based on cost and their ability to distribute the finished product. Large companies have economies of scale in purchasing and distribution. Small companies can compete effectively in local or regional markets and by developing popular products. The industry is concentrated: the 50 largest companies account for more than half of industry revenue.

SOURCE: Hoovers

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5.4%

$789bUSA 12 months ending Oct ’14

25.6%2014 share of nondurable

goods manufacturing market

2014 vs. 2013value of shipments

Value of Shipments

Market Share

Growth Rate

Food & Vegetable Preserving‣ Frozen food‣ Frozen fruit, juice, & vegetable‣ Fruit & vegetable canning‣ Dried & dehydrated food

Dairy Product‣ Fluid milk‣ Creamery butter‣ Cheese‣ Dry, condensed, & evaporated dairy‣ Ice cream

Animal Food‣ Dog & cat‣ Other

Grain & Oilseed Milling‣ Flour milling‣ Malt manufacturing‣ Rice milling‣ Starch, fats & oils‣ Wet corn milling‣ Soybean processing‣ Breakfast cereal manufacturing

Sugar & Confectionary Product‣ Beet sugar‣ Cane sugar‣ Non-chocolate confectionary‣ Chocolate confectionary

Animal Slaughtering

Bakeries & Tortilla‣ Bread, frozen cakes & pies, cookie,

cracker, & pasta‣ Dry pasta, dough, & flour mixes‣ Tortilla

Other‣ Snack food, coffee & tea, syrup,

seasoning & dressing



All Other43%

Meat, Poultry,Seafood

30%

Dairy15%

Milling12%

By Value of Shipmentsper the M3 report

$789 billion5.4% y-o-y growth

Animal!Milling!Sugar!Fruit & Vegetable!Dairy!Animal Slaughtering!Seafood!Bakeries!Other!

Employee Level Indexper the BLS employment report

1.48 millionslightly less than 2004 level

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Industry Health Dashboard Key

-18.7% 10.1%

Operating Profit Growth Rate

Performance MetricCurrent Health Status

Trend Indicator and Last Reported Value

10-year High10-year Low

Grade F D C B A

recent trend is neutral

recent trend is positive

recent trend is negative


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Food ManufacturingMashburn Ranking: 5/12

C+ 78%

5.4% 8.5%

Operating Profit Growth Rate

1.16 1.61

Net Working Capital Ratio

0.68 1.00

Quick Ratio

4.2% 8.1%

Return on Sales

58.8 41.2

Cash Conversion Cycle

2.5% 4.5%

Return on Assets

95 106

Industrial Production

78% 84%

Capacity Utilization


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$324k $533k

Value of Shipment per Employee

$30.2k $37.4k

Average Annual Employee Earnings

0.96 1.17

Export/Import Ratio

$245k $457k

Total Sales per Employee

0.81 0.71

Inventory to Shipment Ratio

139 213

Producer Price Index

1,443m 1,528m

Employment Level

Return on Equity


Food ManufacturingMashburn Ranking: 5/12

C+ 78%

11.6% 18.2%

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Raw data extracted from the Sept 2014 Quarterly Financial Report, produced by the U.S. Census Bureau

Food Products, USA

Financial StatementsKey Takeaways

The U.S. Census Bureau collects and publishes quarterly aggregate statistics on the financial results and position of U.S. food product manufacturers - via a report entitled Quarterly Financial Report (QFR). The QFR provides insight into industry health and exposes trends that are useful for benchmarking the performance of individual manufacturers.

The U.S. food product manufacturing industry grew sales by a 1.6% in 2014, delivering an operating profit and net profit margin of 6.7%.

From the industry aggregate balance sheet perspective, total cash and securities on hand decreased from 2013. Inventories decreased, positively influencing a solid quick ratio. Net working capital ratio trended higher in 2014 - as did stockholders’ equity.


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Employment Situation, Index Comparison

+2.4%

0.0%CAGR since Dec ’05

+0.4%

Employee Level

Weekly Hours

Hourly Earnings

CAGR since Dec ’05

CAGR since Dec ’05


Food Product Manufacturing

Jan 2006 to Dec 2014

Emp Level! Hourly Earnings! Weekly Hours!

22

M3 Report Trends

Jan 2012 to Nov 2014Jan 2012 to Nov 2014

Jan 2012 to Nov 2014 Jan 2006 to Nov 2014

Inventories Index Trend



58,000!

60,000!

62,000!

64,000!

66,000!

68,000!

USD,

in m

illion

s!

Value of Shipments!

46,000!

46,500!

47,000!

47,500!

48,000!

48,500!

USD,

in m

illion

s!

Total inventories!

0.68!

0.70!

0.72!

0.74!

0.76!

0.78!

0.80!

0.82!

Inventory to Shipment Ratios! Materials & Supplies! Work in Progress! Finished Goods!

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Income Statement, Index Comparison

Jan 2004 to Sep 2014+9.9%

+7.4%CAGR since CY ’04

+9.2%

Net Sales

Op Income

Net Income

CAGR since CY ’04

CAGR since CY ’04



Sales! Op Income! Net Income before tax!

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Key Performance Indicators

Jan 2006 to Dec 2014 Jan 2006 to Dec 2014




4.5%!

5.0%!

5.5%!

6.0%!

6.5%!

7.0%!

7.5%!

8.0%!

8.5%!

Operating Margin! Net Margin before tax!

4.0%!

4.5%!

5.0%!

5.5%!

6.0%!

6.5%!

7.0%!

7.5%!

8.0%!

Return on Sales!

5.5%!

6.0%!

6.5%!

7.0%!

7.5%!

8.0%!

8.5%!

9.0%!

9.5%!

Return on Assets!

40!

42!

44!

46!

48!

50!

52!

54!

56!

58!

Days

!

Cash Conversion Cycle (C2C)!

25

Key Performance Indicators





70!

75!

80!

85!

90!

95!

100!

105!

110!

Industrial Production! Capacity Utilization!

80!

100!

120!

140!

160!

180!

Export Price Index! Import Price Index!

100!

120!

140!

160!

180!

200!

220!

Producer Price Index!

$0!

$100!

$200!

$300!

$400!

$500!

$600!

USD,

in th

ousa

nds!

Value of Shipments per Emp.! Total Sales per Emp.!

ABOUT SPINNAKER SUPPORTSpinnaker Support has steadily emerged as the leading global provider of third-party maintenance and managed services for SAP and Oracle enterprise software applications. Over 400 clients spanning 68 countries depend on Spinnaker Support services to help them reduce IT and other costs, boost operational and financial performance, and to ensure productive enterprise software applications that maintain alignment with business objectives.

26Food Manufacturing Research Report

Learn more about Spinnaker Support at www.spinnakersupport.com

Contact Spinnaker Support at:1-877-476-0576! USA and Canada+44 (0)20 8242 1785! International

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APPENDIX


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Metric DefinitionsOperating income: equals sales (or revenue) minus cost of goods sold, labor, and other day-to-day expenses.

Operating margin: a measure of profitability. It indicates how much of each dollar of revenues is left over after both costs of goods sold and operating expenses are considered. Calculated as, Operating Margin = Operating income / Sales

Return on sales: a metric used to evaluate a company’s operational efficiency; provides insight into how much profit is being produced per dollar of sales. Calculated as Net Income before Taxes divided by Net Sales.

Working capital: a measure of both a company’s efficiency and its short-term financial health. Calculated as Current Assets minus Current Liabilities.

Working capital ratio : indicates whether a company has enough short-term assets to cover its short-term debt. Calculated as Current Assets divided by Current Liabilities. Anything below 1 indicates negative W/C (working capital). While anything over 2 means that the company is not investing excess assets. Most believe that a ratio between 1.2 and 2.0 is sufficient.

Quick ratio: measures a company’s ability to meet its short-term obligations with its most liquid assets. The higher the quick

ratio, the better the company's liquidity position. Calculated as (Current Assets minus Inventories) divided by Current Liabilities.

Cash conversion cycle: a financial metric that measures the length of time required for a company to convert cash invested in its operations to cash received as a result of its operations. Calculated as (Average inventory processing period plus average receivables collection period) minus average payables payment period.

Inventory to shipment ratio: a key measure of the time, in months, that would be required to exhaust inventories if shipments were to remain at their current level.

Return on assets: the ratio of annual net income to average total assets of a business during a financial year. It is a profitability ratio.

Industrial production index: measures the amount of output from the manufacturing, mining, electric and gas industries. The reference year for the index is 2002 and a level of 100. If the IPI is growing month-over-month for a particular industry, this is a sign that the companies in the industry are performing well.

Capacity utilization: Extent or level to which the productive capacity of a plant, firm, or country is being used in generation of goods and services.

Producer price index: measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.

Export and Import Price Index: Indexes that monitor the prices of goods purchased out of the country but produced in the U.S. (exports) and the prices of goods purchased in the U.S. but produced outside of U.S. (imports).


http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/businesses-corporations/revenue-5108

http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/businesses-corporations/revenue-5108

http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/financial-statement-analysis/operating-expense-2792

http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/financial-statement-analysis/operating-expense-2792

The purpose of the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey is to provide broad-based monthly statistical data on current economic conditions and indications of future production commitments in the manufacturing sector. The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Report is released in two stages each month. An advance report, for just durable goods manufacturing, is available about 18 working days after each reporting month. Durable goods, by definition, are products that last for three or more years such as aircraft, automobiles, machinery, and computers. The full M3 report follows about 5 working days later.The M3 is among the most anticipated reports released each month, particularly the advance durable goods portion. It contains nuggets (like new orders for factory goods figures) that provide clues about what might occur in the future. An increase in new orders signals production that will take place in the months ahead, keeping factories and employees busy to satisfy customer demand. A persistent decline in new orders can lead to factory slowdowns, possible employee layoffs, or even build-up of excess inventory. The M3 is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Survey respondents report four different data sets:

• Value of shipments - Products that have been ordered that are now being delivered. Shipments are a good measure of what’s going on in the economy right now, and this figure is used to help calculate GDP. Calculated after factoring out discounts and before freight charges and excise taxes are added.

• New orders - Qualifies for M3 report if the new order comes with a legally binding agreement to purchase a product for immediate or future delivery.

• Unfilled orders - A favorite measure for economists in that a backlog of unfilled orders typically means that factories will stay busy going forward and can suggest an increase in new jobs and greater spending on capital equipment that factories need to boost output. However, there can be negative consequences to a backlog of unfilled orders as well.

• Total inventories - The M3 report considers all stages of inventory at current cost or market value.

New durable goods orders reflect the very latest demand for U.S.-made products across the world. The volume of new orders can swing dramatically from month to month, primarily due to large transportation or defense orders. A single large military or aircraft order can inflate total new orders and can mislead analysts about the economy’s underlying strength. This is precisely why the Census Bureau reports new orders in total, total excluding transportation orders, and total excluding defense orders.

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What is the M3 Report?


30

BLS Reports

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics. The BLS is an independent national statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the Department of Labor.

Each month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys approximately 144,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 554,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and some services.

The International Price Program (IPP) produces Import/Export Price Indexes (MXP) containing data on changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.


current state of america's food product manufacturing market 2015

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