current status of mini-grid operations in myanmar and cambodia › sites › default › files ›...
TRANSCRIPT
CURRENT STATUS OF MINI -GRID OPERATIONS IN MYANMAR AND CAMBODIA
Preliminary Results of the Mini-grid Operator Survey
Bryan Koo
This presentation contains preliminary results for selected metrics from the raw data. Global
Facility on Mini-grid prioritized calculation and review of these metrics in order to provide a
preview of the full analysis. • A full report and data will be submitted next year.
MINI-GRID OPERATOR SURVEY IN FIVE COUNTRIES
Countries: Myanmar, Cambodia, Nepal, India, and Niger
Survey Preparation Sampling Frame
Survey Questionnaire
CAPI program
Survey Implementation Cambodia: June-October, 2017 (Completed)
Myanmar: August-November, 2017 (Completed)
Nepal: Currently in the stage of data collection
India: Prep. Phase
Niger: Prep. Phase
MYANMAR AND CAMBODIA
Land area (sq. km)
PopulationPopulation Density
(ppl/sq.km)Share of Households living
in Urban areas (%)
Cambodia 176,520 15,762,370 89.3 21%Myanmar 653,540 52,885,223 80.9 35%
ELECTRIFICATION RATE IN CAMBODIA HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, MAINLY DRIVEN BY PRIVATE SECTOR
Government of Cambodia has rapidly expanded the electric grid: 71.5% of Cambodian households are connected to the grid electricity based on Multi-tier energy access Tracking Framework (MTF) survey in 2017.
Note: The graph was formulated using CSES datasets available between 1997-2014 and MTF data in 2017.
16.4% 16.7%20.0%
24.0%26.8%
32.5%
50.9%
58.2%
71.5%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CONSOLIDATED LICENSEES IN CAMBODIA HAVE BECOME DISTRIBUTION LICENSEES WHEN AN ISOLATED SYSTEM
IS CONNECTED TO THE MAIN GRID
98114
147165
185 185
221
100
101
5035 32
199 13 16 21 25 27
40
8298
139
167
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Consolidated licensee Distribution licensees
* Number of distribution licensees in 2016 and 2017 is missing for now.
• As the national grid arrives the villages, the consolidated licensees have
converted into the distribution licensees.
• Consolidated License: Generation + Distribution
• Distribution License: Only Distribution
DIESEL IS MOST PREVALENT SOURCE FOR MINI-GRID OPERATIONS
Diesel, 83%
Solar, 1%
Hydropower, 13%
Biomass, 3%
Myanmar (N=811)
Diesel, 90%
Biomass, 10%
Cambodia (N=10)
AVERAGE GENERATION CAPACITY IN CAMBODIA IS LARGER THAN MYANMAR
upto 100 kw, 10%
100-200 kw, 30%
200-300 kw, 40%
300-400 kw, 20%
Cambodia (N=9)
upto 10 kW, 21%
10-50 kW, 65%
50-100 kW, 4%
over 100 kW, 9%
Myanmar (N=804)
CAMBODIAN OPERATORS SERVE FOR MORE AND DIVERSE CUSTOMERS
13%
51%
30%25%
Business School Health Facility Governmentoffice
Cambodia (N=94)Myanmar (N=805)92% 93% 90% 91%
15%
Small scalebusiness
School Health facility Governmentoffice
GarmentFactory
Myanmar Cambodia
Residential Customer 234 3843
Business 43 152
School 2 4
Health facility 2 2
Government office 8 4
Type of Customers served
Number of Customers served
1
2
77% OF MINI-GRID OPERATORS IN MYANMAR DO NOT HAVE A PLAN TO INCREASE CUSTOMERS
No, 77%
No, 21%No, 10%
Yes, 23%
Yes, 79%Yes, 90%
Myanmar CambodiaDistribution
CambodiaConsolidation
MORE OPERATORS FROM CAMBODIA REPORTED THAT IT IS PROFITABLE
Yes, 65%
No, 35%
Myanmar
(N=805)
No, 10%
Yes, 90%
No, 4%
Yes, 95%
don't know,
1%
Cambodia- Consolidated Licensee
(N=10)
Cambodia- Distribution Licensee
(N=87)
* “Do you make a profit from operating the mini-grid?”
• 65% of mini-grid operators in Myanmar answered that their operation is profitable
while more than 90% of operations in Cambodia are profitable.
• Further investigation on their profitability will be carried out.
TARIFF FOR ELECTRICITY SERVICE (PER KWH)
Min, 0.12
Min, 0.42
Min, 0.03
Mean, 0.15
Mean, 0.55Mean, 0.44
Max, 1.19
Max, 0.75
Max, 0.95
Distribution Licensee-Residential Customer (per
kWh) in USD
Consolidated Licensee-Residential Customer (Per
kWh) in USD
Residential Customer (PerkWh) in USD
Cambodia Myanmar
Min
Mean
Max
N=70 N=8 N=112
HOW IS THE TARIFF DETERMINED?Cambodia- Electricity Authority of Cambodia set electricity price incorporating generation cost and certain percentage of profit.
Myanmar Mainly determined by either Community or Private sector
* Other, specify: It is written in Burmese and currently in the process of translating.
DRD, 1%
Community, 50%
Private Company, 43%
Other, 6%
PRIVATE COMPANY’S ELECTRICITY TARIFF IS HIGHER THAN COMMUNITY BASED TARIFF
Min, 0.03Min, 0.07 Min, 0.07
Mean, 0.23
Mean, 0.38 Mean, 0.41Max, 0.37
Max, 0.59
Max, 0.95
DRD Community Priavte Company
Min Mean MaxN=6 N=25 N=77
Per kWh
Min, 0.15 Min, 0.15
Mean, 1.47
Mean, 2.93
Max, 1.68
Max, 3.56
Community Priavte Company
Min Mean Max
Flat Fee per Month
N=431 N=199
• However, the difference in electricity tariff does not only attribute to the
decision making process. More private company runs diesel generator for
electricity supply which would be a reason of higher electricity tariff.
ELECTRICITY TARIFF OF HYDRO-BASED OPERATION IS LOWER THAN DIESEL-BASED ONE
min, 0.03 min, 0.07
mean, 0.45
mean, 0.16
max, 0.95
max, 0.37
Diesel Hydropower
USD Per kWh By Source of Generation
N=91 N=18
MAJOR ISSUES WITH REVENUE
No, 51%
Yes, 49%
Myanmar: System breakdown
• Due to the system breakdown,
the operators in Myanmar
cannot provide sufficient
electricity service to customers.
36%
23% 24%
Low consumption Decrease in numberof customers
No problem
• Cambodian operators’ main concern is low
consumption and decrease in number of customers
(e.g. Migration)
• A quarter of operators reported that they don’t
have any problem with revenue.
Cambodia: Low Consumption
Does System breakdown make a
negative impact on your revenue?
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IS ONLY 25-30% OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS.
Electricity Consumption in kWh/month Urban/Rural
127.8
37.9
55.2
Electricity consumption(kWh/month)
Urban Rural Nationwide
* Source: 2017 Multi-tier energy access Tracking Framework Survey in Cambodia
QUALITY OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
N=81 N=805
22.524.0
5.24 4 3.2
CambodiaDistribution
CambodiaConsolidated
Myanmar
Hours of Electricity Supply (Daytime)Hours of Electricity Supply(Evening)
N=10
4.1 1.3 0.2
15.6
107.0
20.1
CambodiaDistribution
CambodiaConsolidated
Myanmar
Frequency / day
Duration (Min) / day
N=81 N=805N=10
Hours of Electricity Supply during Daytime (24 hrs)
and Evening (4 hrs)
Frequency and Duration of Outages
IT TAKES 115 HOURS TO FIX TECHNICAL PROBLEM IN MYANMAR WHILE 35 HOURS IN CAMBODIA ON AVERAGE
115.17
34.89
Myanmar Cambodia
How long did it take to fix the problem? (Hrs)
1%
84%
7% 9%
31%
19%
3%
47%
Ask my equipmentmanufacturers
Hire a localtechnician to fix it
Call a technicianoutside of the
community
Notapplicable/Solved
by Operator
Myanmar
Cambodia
How to cope with the technical problems
WHEN THE NATIONAL GRID ARRIVES?
No, 37%
Yes, 63%
Myanmar: I will abandon my mini-grid
operation
• 63% of mini-grid operators answered
that they will stop operating when the
national grid arrives.
• None of consolidated licensees
reported that they will stop
operating.
No, 10%
Yes, 80%
Don't know, 10%
Cambodia: I will keep my distribution
licensee
• 80% of the consolidated licensees
will convert their licensee into the
distribution license.