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Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from north of Flagler/Volusia county line (Florida) to Surf City (North Carolina)

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Surf City to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Volusia/Brevard county line to the Flagler/Volusia county line; north of Surf City to Duck; Pamlico and Albemarle sounds

Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 30.2° north, 80.7° west (previous location: 29.4° north, 80.5° west) LOCATION: 40 miles (70 kilometers) east of Jacksonville Beach, Florida MOVEMENT: north at 12 mph (19 kph) (previous: north-northwest at 12 mph (19 kph)) WINDS: 110 mph (175 kph) with gusts to 130 mph (210 kph) (previous: 120 mph (195 kph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 185 miles (295 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 60 miles (95 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 millibars (previous: 947 millibars) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 2 1st LANDFALL LOCATION: near Les Anglais, Haiti 1st LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 7:00 AM local time October 3 (11:00 UTC) 1st LANDFALL INTENSITY: 145 mph (230 kph) 2nd LANDFALL LOCATION: near Juaco, Cuba 2nd LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 8:00 PM local time October 4 (00:00 UTC October 5) 2nd LANDFALL INTENSITY: 140 mph (220 kph) 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: HIGH (South Carolina) 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT LOCAL INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH


Cat Alert: Hurricane Matthew 2

Latest Satellite Picture

Source: NOAA

Discussion Hurricane Matthew, located approximately 40 miles (70 kilometers) east of Jacksonville Beach, Florida, is currently tracking north at 12 mph (19 kph). Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and satellite intensity estimates indicate that Matthew has weakened a little bit further and the initial intensity is now 110 mph (175 mph). This is the first time in more than a week that the storm has not been at least Category 3 intensity. The hurricane is heading toward an area of increasing wind shear, and this should result in gradual weakening. The shear is forecast to continue during the next five days, so additional weakening is anticipated and Matthew is expected to be a tropical depression by the end of the five-day NHC forecast period.

Matthew has begun to move northward. In about 12 hours, the hurricane will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern should induce a northeastward and then eastward motion during the next two days. During that time the core of the hurricane is expected to hug the coast from Georgia through southeastern North Carolina. The confidence in this portion of the track forecast is high. After that time, the steering flow becomes very complex, and both the GFS and ECMWF models turn the cyclone southward and southwestward embedded within the flow on the west side of a mid-level trough. The NHC track follows these two models, but the confidence is portion of the forecast is low.



KEY MESSAGES FROM THE NHC 1. We have been very fortunate that Matthew's strongest winds have remained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far, but this should not be a reason to let down our guard. Only a small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these winds onshore. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia through tonight.

2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants of high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from Florida to North Carolina.

ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Florida tonight, and spread northward within the warning area through Saturday.

Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday morning.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at high tide:

- Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina (including portions of the St. John’s River): 6 to 9 feet

- Volusia/Brevard county line to Flagler Beach, Florida: 4 to 6 feet - Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina: 5 to 7 feet - Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina ( including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds): 2

to 4 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina.



Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from northeast Florida to eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.

Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the South Carolina and Georgia coastal plains late this afternoon and tonight.

Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend.

National Hurricane Center Forecast



National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm-Force Wind Probabilities (≥40 mph (65 kph))



Wind Probabilities (≥60 mph (95 kph))



Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities (≥75 mph (120 kph))



National Hurricane Center: Wind History Map



Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential



National Hurricane Center: Storm Surge



Current ‘Spaghetti’ Model Output Data

Source: NHC

Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov

NEXT CAT ALERT: Saturday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC).

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



*Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU

KTS1 MPH1 KPH1

NE Pacific, Atlantic

NW Pacific

NW Pacific

SW Pacific Australia SW

Indian North Indian

National Hurricane

Center (NHC)

Joint Typhoon Warning

Center (JTWC)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS)

Bureau Of Meteorology

(BOM) Meteo-France

(MF)

India Meteorological

Department (IMD)

30 35 55 Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Low

Tropical Depression

Deep Depression

35 40 65

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone


Moderate Tropical Storm

Cyclonic Storm 40 45 75

45 50 85

50 60 95 Severe Tropical Storm



Severe Tropical Storm

Severe Cyclonic Storm

55 65 100

60 70 110

65 75 120

Cat. 1 Hurricane

Typhoon

Typhoon

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone


Tropical Cyclone

Very Severe

Cyclonic Storm

70 80 130

75 85 140

80 90 150

85 100 160

Cat. 2 Hurricane 90 105 170


Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Intense

Tropical Cyclone

95 110 175

100 115 185

Cat. 3 Major

Hurricane

105 120 195

110 125 205



115 130 210

120 140 220

Cat. 4 Major

Hurricane Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

Super Cyclonic Storm

125 145 230

130 150 240

Super Typhoon

135 155 250

140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major

Hurricane >140 >160 >260



About Aon Benfield

Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting® No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Aon plc.

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