curt lacy extension economist. current situation relatively high prices positive expected profits...
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Curt LacyCurt Lacy
Extension EconomistExtension Economist
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Current SituationCurrent Situation
Relatively high pricesPositive expected profits for the next few
yearsProducers looking to recoup some of last
few years lossesWeather and other events still a major
concern
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Outlook – Cow-Calf ProducersOutlook – Cow-Calf Producers
2001-2004 – profits2005-2008 – losses2009 – profits/losses
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Cattle numbers usually increase 2 yrs. Cattle numbers usually increase 2 yrs. after cow/calf profits after cow/calf profits
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Three Alternatives to Expand Three Alternatives to Expand Cow-HerdCow-Herd
Retain heifers from your own herdBuy heifers (bred or open)Buy cows (often either bred or as “3-in-1”)
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Replacement Female Replacement Female Economic ConsiderationsEconomic Considerations
Production– Percentage calf crop– Weaning weight– Frame size/Muscle score
Economic– Development costs– Market value of female
Price-Position in Cattle Cycle– Expected prices– Effect of Frame/Muscle score on price (read discounts)
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Possible OutcomesPossible Outcomes
Base – 90% L/M-1/2– 10% #3 muscling
Alternative 1– 80% L/M-1/2– 10% L/M-3 – 10% S1/2
Alternative 2– 70% L/M-1/2– 15% L/M-3 – 15% S1/2
Alternative 3– 60% L/M-1/2– 20% L/M-3 – 20% S1/2
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Comparison of Most Likely Comparison of Most Likely Scenario for Fall Calving HerdScenario for Fall Calving HerdRetain heifer and breed in December for fall
calvingBuy bred heifer next summer for fall
calving
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Tale of the TapeTale of the Tape
Retaining Your Own– Advantages
Known genetics Capability to build on
past genetic decisions Price??
– Disadvantages Inferior genetics Foregoing of current
sales Additional management
required to develop and breed heifers
Buying Bred Heifers– Advantages
Improve genetics Saves time and trouble
of managing and breeding replacements
– Disadvantages Unknown genetics Sources?? Price!!
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Doing the Math – Steps to Follow Doing the Math – Steps to Follow to Estimate the Economic Value to Estimate the Economic Value
of a Heiferof a Heifer1. Develop a budget
2. Prepare a schedule of expenses and income (cash flow projection) of development phase
3. Estimate annual returns
4. Estimate the useful life of the heifer
5. Estimate the cull value
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Items You Will NeedItems You Will Need
Prices– Expected calf prices– Adjustments for quality grades– Cull prices– Price for the heifer???
Production– Expected production
Weaning weights Conception rates
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Items You Will NeedItems You Will Need
Budgets– Winter pasture– Summer pasture– Vet & Medicine
Shots Eartags Minerals
Expected Cull Rate
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Doing the Math - Prices & Doing the Math - Prices & DiscountsDiscounts
Base Price - $90/cwt. for SteersDiscounts
– Heifers $5.00/cwt.– #3 muscling $18.00/cwt.– Short-frame $25.00/cwt.
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Retain HeiferRetain HeiferHeifer Development Budget - Buy 625# heifer Oct.2001, breed 700# Dec. 2001, calve Oct. 2002Item Unit Cost/unit Quantity Item costHeifer cwt. 80.00$ 6.25 500.00$ Winter Pasture ac 57.23$ 0.4 22.89$ Coastal Pasture ac 96.10$ 1 96.10$ Hay roll 25.00$ 3 75.00$ Mineral hd 16.00$ 1 16.00$ Ear Tags hd 2.80$ 1 2.80$ Vet & Med hd 24.90$ 1 24.90$ Labor hrs 7.00$ 1.5 10.50$
Total Variable Costs hd 748.19$ Interest hd 0.08$ 374.10$ 29.93$ Non-breeders percent 778.12$ 0.15 116.72$ Total Costs of Retaining Heifers hd 894.84$
Adjustment for cull sales hd 75.00$ 1.05 78.75$
Total net costs for retaining heifers 816.09$
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Buying Bred HeiferBuying Bred HeiferHeifer Development BudgetBuy 800 # bred heifer in J une
Item Unit Cost/ unit Quantity Item costHeifer cwt. 87.50$ 8 700.00$ Winter Pasture ac 57.23$ 0 -$ Coastal Pasture ac 48.00$ 1 48.00$ Hay roll 25.00$ 0 -$ Mineral hd 8.00$ 1 8.00$ Ear Tags hd 2.80$ 1 2.80$ Vet & Med hd 24.90$ 1 24.90$ Labor hrs 7.00$ 0.75 5.25$
Total Variable Costs hd 788.95$ Interest hd 0.08$ 394.48$ 31.56$ Non-breeders percent 820.51$ 0 -$ Total Costs of Buying Bred Heiferhd 820.51$
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Results - Buying Bred HeiferResults - Buying Bred HeiferExpected ProfitsExpected Profits
500 Pounds
475 Pounds
450 Pounds
Base $176.86 $78.20 ($20.45)
Scenario 1 $121.79 $25.89 ($70.01)
Scenario 2 $66.72 ($26.43) ($119.57)
Scenario 3 $11.65 ($78.74) ($169.13)
Pay $700 for heifer in June
Retaining Own Heifer – $188.54
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Results - Buying Bred HeiferResults - Buying Bred HeiferEconomic Value – What can you afford to pay?Economic Value – What can you afford to pay?
500 Pounds
475 Pounds
450 Pounds
Base $836.22 $737.57 $638.91
Scenario 1 $781.15 $685.25 $589.35
Scenario 2 $726.09 $632.94 $539.79
Scenario 3 $671.02 $580.63 $490.23
Retaining own heifer = $685.23
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ConclusionsConclusions
Producers should carefully consider their source of replacement heifers
Purchasing heifers can be a profitable alternative Key considerations:
– Price of the replacement animal– Expected profits from the asset
Price Production
– Longevity
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ConclusionsConclusions
Considerations– Retaining your own heifers allows you to take
advantage of past breeding decisions– Retaining your own heifers reduces the variability of
the calf crop and makes it easier to group calves in more uniform lots
– Purchasing females of unknown genetics increases variability of calf crop and returns
– Purchasing females of known genetics can improve profits
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ConclusionsConclusions
Bottom Line-Retaining and developing your own replacement females or females of known genetics gives you:– Better control – reduced variability in genetics– Predictable production– Greater uniformity in calf crop– Increased ability to sell in larger lots higher
price
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Heifer Percentage of FI U.S. Slaughter vs. Heifer Percentage of FI U.S. Slaughter vs. Total U.S. Cattle InventoryTotal U.S. Cattle Inventory
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Year of Cattle Cycle
US
Ca
ttle
In
ve
nto
ry
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
He
ife
r% o
f F
I S
ltr
1967-79
1979-90
1990-?
1967-79%
1979-90%
1990-?%
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U.S. Cattle Inventory and PricesU.S. Cattle Inventory and Prices
Total U.S. Cattle Inventory and April prices for 400-500 m1 steers
GA Steer Prices vs. Total U.S. Cattle Inventory
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Th
ou
san
ds o
f h
ead
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$/c
wt.
1967-79 73-79 prices
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U.S. Cattle Inventory and PricesU.S. Cattle Inventory and Prices
Total U.S. Cattle Inventory and April prices for 400-500 m1 steers
GA Steer Prices vs. Total U.S. Cattle Inventory
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$/cw
t.
1990-?? 90-?? prices
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Recent PricesRecent Prices
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Results – Retain HeiferResults – Retain Heifer
Expected profits - $68.65
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Results - Buying “3 in 1”Results - Buying “3 in 1”Expected ProfitsExpected Profits450
Pounds425
Pounds400
Pounds
Base $181.84 $107.86 $33.89
Scenario 1 $164.85 $91.82 $18.79
Scenario 2 $130.88 $59.73 ($11.41)
Scenario 3 $96.60 $27.65 ($41.61)
Pay $750 for combo in June
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Results - Buying “3 in 1”Results - Buying “3 in 1”What Can You Afford to Pay?What Can You Afford to Pay?
450 Pounds
425 Pounds
400 Pounds
Base $897.75 $823.78 $749.80
Scenario 1 $880.77 $807.73 $734.70
Scenario 2 $846.79 $775.65 $704.50
Scenario 3 $812.82 $743.56 $674.31
Retaining own heifer = $565.34
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OverviewOverview
Current SituationOutlookReplacement EconomicsResults
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What is the Economic Value of What is the Economic Value of a Heifer?a Heifer?Curt Lacy
University of Georgia
Extension Economist - Livestock