custodial risk

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1 The Great Global Wealth Grab © 2014 · Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publish, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of OmniSans Publishing, LLC. · All Rights Reserved.

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CUSTODIAL RISK

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    The Great Global Wealth Grab 2014 Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publish, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of OmniSans Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

  • Disclaimer: The information contained on this newsletter is for marketing purposes only. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice by Phoenix Capital Research or any of its affiliates, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed on this newsletter constitutes and offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information in the newsletter is not a complete description of the securities, markets or developments discussed. Information and opinions regarding individual securities do not mean that a security is recommended or suitable for a particular investor. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Opinions and estimates expressed on this newsletter constitute Phoenix Capital Research's judgment as of the date appearing on the opinion or estimate and are subject to change without notice. This information may not reflect events occurring after the date or time of publication. Phoenix Capital Research is not obligated to continue to offer information or opinions regarding any security, instrument or service. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Phoenix Capital Research and its officers, directors, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have executed, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on this newsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. Securities products are not FDIC insured, are not guaranteed by any bank and involve investment risk, including possible loss of entire value. Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is not responsible for the content of other newsletters to which this one may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. OmniSans Publishing LLC and the Phoenix Capital Research Logo are registered trademarks of Phoenix Capital Research. OmniSans Publishing LLC - PO BOX 6369, Charlottesville, VA 22906

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    Behind the veneer of all is well being promoted by both world Governments and the Mainstream Media, the political elite have begun implementing legislation that will permit them to freeze accounts and use your savings to prop up insolvent banks. This is not conspiracy theory or some kind of doom and gloom. Its basic fact. In the last 16 months, Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the US, the UK, and now Germany have all implemented legislation that would allow them to first FREEZE and then SEIZE bank assets during the next crisis. I expect more countries to join this movement. The IMF actually openly suggested it as the best means of dealing with future crises in the financial system. With that in mind, I want to devote some time reviewing how this process works. The best example in recent history is the Cyprus bail-in which occurred last year. Indeed, many Governments have seen this process as a template they should follow the next time their banking systems get into trouble. The quick timeline for what happened in Cyprus is as follows: June 25, 2012: Cyprus formally requests a bailout from the EU. November 24, 2012: Cyprus announces it has reached an agreement with the

    The Great Global Wealth Grab In This Report

    The legislation proposed in Canada, New Zealand, Cyprus, the US and elsewhere that allows Governments to freeze accounts and seize deposits. A case study of how the next Crises will unfold and what the warning signs will be. Custody risk the two words your financial planner never talks about but which could cost you up to 40% of your wealth. Which banks the FDIC will take over when the next Crisis hits.

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    EU the bailout process once the troubled Cyprus banks are examined by EU officials (ballpark estimate of capital needed is 17.5 billion). February 25, 2013: Democratic Rally candidate Nicos Anastasiades wins Cypriot election defeating his opponent, an anti-austerity Communist. It is at this point that things went into hyperdrive. March 16 2013: Cyprus announces the terms of its bail-in: a 6.75% confiscation of accounts under 100,000 and 9.9% for accounts larger than 100,000 a bank holiday is announced. March 17 2013: emergency session of Parliament to vote on bailout/bail-in is postponed. March 18 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 21 2013. March 19 2013: Cyprus parliament rejects bail-in bill. March 20 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 26 2013. March 24 2013: Cash limits of 100 in withdrawals begin for largest banks in Cyprus. March 25 2013: Bail-in deal agreed upon. Those depositors with over 100,000 either lose 40% of their money (Bank of Cyprus) or lose 60% (Laiki). The most important thing I want you to focus on is the speed of these events. Cypriot banks formally requested a bailout back in June 2012. The bailout talks took months to perform. And then the entire system came unhinged in one weekend. One weekend. The process was not gradual. It was sudden and it was total: once it began in earnest, the banks were closed and you couldnt get your money out (more on this in a moment). There were no warnings that this was coming because everyone at the top of the financial food chain were highly incentivized to keep quiet about this. The Central Banks, the bank CEOs, the politicians all of these people were focused primarily on maintaining CONFIDENCE in the Cyprus banking system, NOT on fixing the systems problems.

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    Indeed, the financial elite cannot even openly discuss the systems problems because it would quickly reveal that they are a primary cause of them. For that reason, you will never and I repeat NEVER see a Central banker, bank CEO, or politician admit openly what is happening in the financial system. Even middle managers and lower level employees wont talk about it because A) they dont know the truth concerning their institutions or B) they could be fired for warning others. Consider the following story from Cyprus: ''Very bad, very, very bad,'' says 65-year-old John Demetriou, rubbing tears from his lined face with thick fingers. ''I lost all my money.''

    He had left Cyprus in the early 1970s at the height of its war with Turkey, taking his wife and young children to safety in Australia. He built a life from nothing and, gradually, a substantial nest egg. He retired to Cyprus in 2007 with about $1 million, his life savings.

    His money was all in the Laiki ''Popular'' Bank which was the main casualty of Cyprus' bailout package set by the European Union. Laiki is to be dismantled. Savings of less than 100,000 are to move to the Bank of Cyprus. Anything more than that will almost certainly be wiped out as the bank is wound down, its remaining assets taken by the bank's creditors. Last week he heard a rumour that the bank was in trouble and went into Aiya Napa to ask his bank manager - a friend - if he should move his life savings. ''There's no problem, nothing to worry about,'' he was told. Not so. http://www.smh.com.au/national/i-went-to-sleep-friday-as-a-rich-man-i-woke-up-a-poor-man-20130328-2gxab.html#ixzz2PK3U3Cbn

    Here is an older man who worked every day of his life and saved for retirement who was told by his bank manager, who was a personal friend, that theres no problem, nothing to worry about. The man lost virtually everything in one weekend. Whether the bank manager was ignorant of the facts or lied doesnt change the outcome: the man LOST ALMOST ALL OF HIS MONEY.

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    I have two points with all of this: 1) Those in charge of the financial system are highly incentivized to lie about its risks and the potential for a Crisis to hit. 2) The warnings of a Crisis often appear months, if not years in advance however once the Crisis actually hits, it happens very quickly So why does these people lie? Central bankers lie because they draw all of their power based on the fact that they are beyond oversight or regulation. The minute they lose this power, it becomes obvious that Central Banks and Central Bankers are one of the primary causes of the financial systems problems. Ordinary bankers at insolvent banks lie because if they were honest, their banks would collapse, they would lose their salaries/ bonuses, and they would very likely face legal actions. And finally, politicians lie because many of them are receiving kickbacks, bribes, and other benefits from the banks. The point here is that one of if not THE primary role for the political/ financial elite is to maintain confidence in the system. These folks will NEVER EVER admit systemic risk is present until it is far too late to prepare for it. Case in point, the Bank of Cyprus, the bank that imploded in 2013 and STOLE clients funds was voted Best Bank for Private Banking in Cyprus by EUROMONEY magazine in 2012. No joke Bank of Cyprus has been named as the Best Bank for Private Banking in Cyprus, by the internationally acclaimed magazine EUROMONEY Bank of Cyprus Private Banking ranked first among Cypriot, Greek and other international financial institutions operating in Cyprus in the Private Banking sector This recognition by EUROMONEY is ever more important in todays macroeconomic environment as it reaffirms the Banks ability to safely and successfully respond to its clients financial needs and emphasizes its clients loyalty and trust. http://www.bankofcyprus.com.cy/en-GB/Cyprus/News-Archive/Best-Bank-for-Private-Banking/

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    So do not expect to EVER hear a Central Banker, politician, banker, regulator or anyone else in a position of power warn you of the real risks to your wealth. Indeed, as Cyprus has now SHOWN us, the only people who WILL be warned are the elites cronies: One hundred and thirty-two companies reportedly had inside knowledge of Cyprus impending levy tax as they withdrew deposits worth US$916 million in the run-up to the bailout deal. The companies withdrew their savings in the two-week period (between March 1 to March 15) leading up to the rescue deal that enforced heavy losses on wealthy depositors in Cypriot banks, according to Greek newspaper Proto Thema. Shortly after this the EU ministers and the IMF hammered out a 10-billion-euro (US$13 billion) bailout agreement with Cyprus, which included a one-time tax on deposits held in Cypriot banks. In the meantime all banks in Cyprus temporarily froze the amounts required to pay the tax on their clients deposits and stopped all transactions while the government negotiated the details of the agreement. The companies on the list withdrew their deposits in euro, USD, GBP and Russian rubles and later transferred to banks outside of Cyprus. The total amount withdrawn comes to US$916 million. http://rt.com/news/cyprus-companies-withdraw-money-218/ How about that? The insiders were able to get nearly $1 billion out of the banks while ordinary savers deposits were frozen. Please take a few minutes to digest what Im telling you here. You will not be warned of the risks to your wealth by anyone in a position of power in the political financial hierarchy.

    With that in mind, now is a good time to prepare for systemic risk. I cannot forecast precisely when things will get as ugly as they did in Cyprus for the financial system as a whole (no one can). However, I can tell you the primary issues you need to be concerned with when it comes to preparing for whats coming.

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    Step #1: Assess Your Custody Risk The first and most important issue is custody risk. Custody risk is a legal phrase used to convey what do you really own when you buy an investment. In todays financial world, virtually no one has the actual physical share certificates of the stocks they own or other assets held by their various accounts/ trusts/ etc. Instead, their shares and other assets are electronically parked at their brokerage firm or some other financial institution. Custody risk assesses what happens to those shares or other assets in the event that the brokerage firm goes under due to insolvency, negligence or fraudulent action. It is essentially a legal framework through which you maintain ownership even if the entity holding your shares or assets for you (the custodian) goes out of business. This is a HUGE issue that is boiling just beneath the surface of the financial system. The SEC recently performed a study of some 400-investment advisor firms. As the SEC itself stated in its report approximately one-third of them (over 140) failed to meet custody rule requirements. The issues here are too myriad to list, but some of them include: 1) A lack of awareness by advisors concerning the custody rule (read: the advisor isnt even sure of whether he or she has custody of their clients accounts) 2) Failure by the advisor to have the assets or securities placed with a qualified custodian firm (a qualified financial firm) 3) Failure by the advisor to have an independent accountant audit the firms holdings (so who is keeping track of what your assets are actually worth or where they are for that matter)? 4) Failure to provide GAAP approved audits of client accounts (read: the balance sheets of the clients funds they provided did not meet Generally Accepted Auditing Standards or GAAP). My point with all of this is that most investment professionals dont even consider these issues. Again roughly ONE THIRD of the advisory firms the SEC examined failed to meet custody rule requirements. In simple terms: these folks were not keeping track of where the assets were, werent providing their clients with timely updates of where the assets where, failed to pass special exams

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    concerning issues of custody rule AND failed to have independent audits of their clients funds performed. In other words they didnt really know where their clients funds were, how big or how small they were in fact, many of them didnt even realize that they themselves were legal custodians of their clients funds. Custody risk goes beyond investment advisors. Indeed, these issues are endemic to the financial system today. Lets say the financial firm which is actually keeping custody of your assets (your stock shares, money market account, etc.) goes belly-up. What happens then? How quickly can you access your accounts? How soon can they be transferred out of the firm to another custodian? You see where Im going with this. Even if an appropriate legal framework is in place to eliminate the risk of loss of value of the securities held by the custodian in the event of its failure, it can take weeks or even months to transfer the securities to a new custodian. During that time, you cannot close out open positions they are effectively frozen. In the case of MF Global, some investors were locked out of their accounts and couldnt trade their positions for weeks. As a result many of them incurred massive losses (imagine owning stocks and not being able to sell them during a crash). I bring all of this is up because custody risk is one of the biggest, most important issues to consider if you want to maintain your wealth when the next round of systemic risk hits. Remember from the case of Cyprus once things get bad, they do so in a hurry. With that in mind, now is the time to be assessing the custody risk for your various assets. Review the custody risk clauses for the firms that have custody of your portfolio and account. Find out what would happen in the even that the firm failed. And by all means MAKE SURE your money is actually there. This goes for your stock holdings, bond holdings, money market accounts, even your Gold. I can assure you that large-scale investors have begun this process already. Indeed, the below news story should make it obvious that those in the know are concerned about where their assets are and are taking action to mitigate custody risk:

    Texas Republican State Representative Giovanni Capriglione authored the bill demanding state owned gold bars be returned to the Lone Star State. The legislation to pull $1 billion

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    in gold reserves from a Federal Reserve vault in New York is supported by Governor Rick Perry.

    The financial crisis in Cyprus which prompted a run on the bank and ultimately a closure of the financial institutions reportedly bolstered support for the Texas gold bar return bill. State Representative Capriglione had this to say about why he penned the bill: For us to have our own gold, a lot of the runs on the bank and those types of things, they happen because people are worried that theres nothing there to back it up. Governor Perry stated that if Texas owns the gold, then no one else should be able to determine if the state can reclaim possession of the bars of precious metal. Representative Capriglione also noted that Texas is not interested in implementing its own gold standard. According to the Republicans statements about the gold bars bill, he simply wants to bolster the states fiscally secure reputation. The Texas public servant also feels that such a solid financial persona would be beneficial in case an international of national fiscal crisis occurred. The legislation notes the state does not merely want gold certificates from the Federal Reserve, they want the actual gold bars to store inside a planned Texas Bullion Depository. Moving $1 billion in gold bars from New York to Texas would be a huge task, one some are calling impractical. State Representative Capriglione suggested selling the gold currently housed inside the New York vault and then repurchasing the same amount in Texas. http://www.inquisitr.com/600185/texas-wants-gold-stored-at-federal-reserve-returned-to-lone-star-state/#XHeg60ztpexhAROW.99 Why do you think Texas is concerned about the custody risk of its gold holding?

    Step #2: Prepare to be Taxed The world will soon be facing a tsunami of defaults on bad debts. This will include municipal or local government defaults, governments defaulting on promises theyve made to the people (Social Security, Medicaid), a default on the social contract between society and politicians such as the one in Cyprus (a default on the notions of private property and Democracy), stealth defaults on debts in the form of inflation and finally, of course, outright sovereign defaults. The sovereign defaults will come last; all other options will be tried first.

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    The reason for this is that sovereign bonds (think of US Treasuries, German Bunds or Japanese Government bonds) are the senior most collateral posted by banks for the hundreds of trillions of Dollars worth of derivatives bets theyve made with each other. The minute an actual sovereign default occurs in Europe, Asia or the US, then the large global banks will all be vaporized. End of story. As is now clear, the Central banks do not care about ordinary citizens. They only care about propping up the big banks. This is why Cyprus decided to default on the social contract with its people and steal their funds rather than simply instigating a formal default. And its why in general were going to see Governments implementing more and more theft in the form of taxes (Cyprus called its theft a tax) in the future. Make no mistake, the words wealth tax mean freezing of assets and then taking some of your savings. Anyone with more than $100,000 in a bank account should be prepared for this. This will be sold to the public as either an attempt to tax those with a lot of money because its only fair that they put in more to bailout the nation OR as a form of financial terrorism e.g. either you take a 7% cut on your deposits and the bank stays afloat or the bank crashes and you lose everything. This will be spreading throughout the world, GUARANTEED. Spain, Canada (which allegedly has the safest banks in the world), New Zealand and now even Germany have already begun discussing confiscation schemes for depositors in the event of a banking crisis. It can happen in the UK and the US as well. I am not writing that to simply scare people. The FDIC, working with the Bank of England published a paper proposing precisely these methods to deal with Systemically Important Financial Entities (SIFIs). The paper was published in December 2012. Below are some excerpts worth your attention:

    This paper focuses on the application of top-down resolution strategies that involve a single resolution authority applying its powers to the top of a financial group, that is, at the parent company level. The paper discusses how such a top-down strategy could be implemented for a U.S. or a U.K. financial group in a cross-border context These strategies have been designed to enable large and complex cross- border firms to be resolved without threatening financial stability and without putting public funds at risk

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    Under the strategies currently being developed by the U.S. and the U.K., the resolution authority could intervene at the top of the group. Culpable senior management of the parent and operating businesses would be removed, and losses would be apportioned to shareholders and unsecured creditors. In all likelihood, shareholders would lose all value and unsecured creditors should thus expect that their claims would be written down to reflect any losses that shareholders did not cover. Under both the U.S. and U.K. approaches, legal safeguards ensure that creditors recover no less than they would under insolvency. An efficient path for returning the sound operations of the G-SIFI to the private sector would be provided by exchanging or converting a sufficient amount of the unsecured debt from the original creditors of the failed company into equity. In the U.S., the new equity would become capital in one or more newly formed operating entities. In the U.K., the same approach could be used, or the equity could be used to recapitalize the failing financial company itselfthus, the highest layer of surviving bailed-in creditors would become the owners of the resolved firm. In either country, the new equity holders would take on the corresponding risk of being shareholders in a financial institution. Throughout, subsidiaries (domestic and foreign) carrying out critical activities would be kept open and operating, thereby limiting contagion effects. Such a resolution strategy would ensure market discipline and maintain financial stability without cost to taxpayers. Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act provides the FDIC with new powers to resolve SIFIs [systemically important financial institutions] by establishing the orderly liquidation authority (OLA). Under the OLA, the FDIC may be appointed receiver for any U.S. financial company that meets specified criteria, including being in default or in danger of default, and whose resolution under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code (or other relevant insolvency process) would likely create systemic instability. [In the US] Title II requires that the losses of any financial company placed into receivership will not be borne by taxpayers, but by common and preferred stockholders, debt holders, and other unsecured creditors, and that management responsible for the condition of the financial company will be replaced [In the UK] The introduction of a statutory bail-in resolution tool (the power to write down or convert into equity the liabilities of a failing firm) under the RRD is critical to implementing a whole group resolution of U.K But insofar as a bail-in provides for continuity in operations and preserves value losses to a deposit guarantee scheme in a bail-in should be much lower than in liquidation. Insured depositors themselves would remain unaffected. Uninsured deposits would be treated in line with other similarly ranked liabilities in the resolution process, with the expectation that they might be

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    written down.

    http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/gsifi.pdf So if a large bank fails in the US, the FDIC steps in and takes over, replacing management, and works to shrink the bank by writing-down liabilities and converting debt into equity. In other words any liability at the bank is in danger of being written-down should the

    bank fail. And guess what? Deposits are considered liabilities according to US Banking Law and depositors are creditors. So if a large bank fails in the US, your deposits at this bank would either be written-down (read: disappear) or converted into equity or stock shares in the company. And once they are converted to equity you are a shareholder not a depositor so you are no longer insured by the FDIC. So if the bank then fails (meaning its shares fall) so does your deposit. Lets run through this. Lets say ABC bank fails in the US. ABC bank is too big for the FDIC to make hold. So 1) The FDIC takes over the bank. 2) The banks managers are forced out. 3) The banks debts and liabilities are converted into equity or the banks stock. And yes, your deposits are considered a liability for the bank. 4) Whatever happens to the banks stock, affects your wealth. If the banks stock falls at this point because everyone has figured out the bank is in major trouble your wealth falls to. Lets say you have $1,000,000 in deposits at financial institutions ABC. When ABC fails, your deposits are converted into $1,000,000 worth of ABCs stock (lets say you get 1,000,000 shares valued at $1 each for $1,000,000). Now lets say ABCs shares fall in value from $1.00 to $0.50. You just lost $500,000 of your wealth. This is precisely what has happened in Spain during the 2012 banking crisis over there. And it is perfectly legal in the US courtesy of a clause in the Dodd-Frank bill.

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    Just as importantly, if you have your account in a cross-border subsidiary or branch of the bank (meaning a branch of the bank that is located abroad), your deposits are still at risk. So moving your money out of the country to another bank doesnt guarantee the safety of your deposits. Because if the bank should fail, your account is STILL a liability for the parent company and can be written down or converted into equity. Lets use a real world example if Bank of America goes down ALL of its subsidiaries are at stake. You may not know this, but Bank of America has over 100 subsidiaries located throughout not just the US, but the world. Heres the full list: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000119312507042036/dex21.htm The same is true for ALL of the big banks. Anyone who claims what happened in Cyprus couldnt happen in the US is ignorant of the facts. Remember, NO ONE in a position of power is going to warn you of the risks to your wealth. Dont find this out the hard way like many in Europe are today. With that in mind, NOW is the time to be getting your capital in a safe place. I cannot provide detailed information here because I am not a tax or legal expert. However I CAN suggest the following: 1) Do not keep large deposits with any of the systemically important banks (any bank too big for the FDIC to prop up). 2) Do not keep large deposits in any publicly traded banks as they are exposed to anything that happens in the stock market. 3) Do not keep large deposits in any banks that have large derivative exposure (see the graph below for a list of the top 25 in the US). 4) Put your money in a bank that has low leverage and a low risk loan portfolio.

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    Top 25 US banks by derivative exposure:

    Bank Total Assets (in Billions) Derivatives (in Billions)

    JP Morgan $1,850 $71,076 Citibank $1,365 $55,510 Bank of America $1,448 $43,790 Goldman Sachs $120 $41,230 HSBC $196 $4,710 Wells Fargo $1,218 $3,755 Morgan Stanley $71 $2,531 Bank of NY mellon $264 $1,264 State Street Bank $200 $978 PNC Bank $292 $383 Suntrust Bank $168 $275 Northern Trust $93 $213 US Bank National $342 $126 Regions Bank $120 $109 BB&T $176 $81 Keybank National $84 $78 Fifth Third $114 $76 TD Bank USA $200 $69 Union Bank $87 $62 RBS Citizens $107 $38 BOKF National $26 $37 Capital One $161 $32 Flagstar Bank $14 $29 Ally Bank $92 $27 Huntington National Bank $56 $27 As far as preparing to be taxed, it is clear that confiscation (read: theft) is now on the table when the next Crises hits. I do not expect this to stop with deposits. The US has confiscated Gold before. If things get very hairy it could easily do it again. Indeed, the US Government recently attempted to force investors to file a tax form for any Gold or Silver purchase worth more than $600. This failed to be passed, however, if you do ever choose to sell some of your Gold or Silver bullion to a dealer, you have to report it to the IRS if it meets certain requirements. You can read these requirements here: http://www.usagold.com/cpm/privacy.html

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    Moreover, moving your money out of the US wont necessarily help you either. According to US tax code, any foreign bank account or ownership of a foreign financial asset greater than $10,000 must be reported to the IRS. Failure to do so can result in fines of up to $250,000 (or 50% of the amount) whichever is greater and up to FIVE YEARS jail-time. Again, I am not a tax or legal expert. If youre planning on moving money out of the US to keep it safe (or wherever you are located) you NEED to talk to a lawyer about what has to be reported and what doesnt. Cyprus has shown us that when push comes to shove, the rule of law goes out the window. I fully expect that when things get really bad in the financial system the money grabs will come fast and furious. Prepare to be taxed. I mean deposit confiscation, wealth tax, and more. Im working to find solutions to this, but honestly, this is how the lay of the land is looking. These two issues: Custody Risk and Wealth Taxation require your attention the most. There are others, but if you begin assessing these now, youre ahead of 99% of investors. And as Cyprus has shown us, when systemic risk really hits, being ahead of the crowd will be the difference between those who emerge largely intact and those who lose almost everything. Best Regards Graham Summers Phoenix Capital Research