Jeffrey S. PasselPew Hispanic Center

Latin American Migrationto the United States:Trends and Impacts

Latin American Migrationto the United States:Trends and Impacts

“Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and”Development in Latin America and the Caribbean”

CONAPO & UNFPA Mexico City, DF — November 30–December 2, 2005

• Demographic Background -- Emergence of Latin sources -- How many? When did it start?

• What Are They Like? -- Socioeconomic characteristics -- Legal status & Labor force

• What Are Their Impacts? -- U.S. population & economy -- Origin & destination impactss

Immigration TodayImmigration Today

Demographic TrendsDemographic Trends• Growing Numbers & Percents

-- Mass migrations of ’70s

• What Drives the Flow? -- Recent peak or downturn?

• Emergence of New Centers -- Spread of unauthorized flows -- Mexicans and others

• Maturation of Some Flows? -- “Californization” spreading?

Millions of Immigrants

* “Additional” immigrants are mostly unauthorized and legalized aliens.

Europe/Canada (Legal)

Additional*

All Other (Legal)

14-16+(est.)

0.1

2.8

0.6

2.32.61.7

0.5

4.1

6.0

9.0

3.7

5.2

7

3.8

1.0

2.5

15+?

10

21st Century:

Latin Flows Emerge in’60s21st Century:

Latin Flows Emerge in’60s

0

250

500

750

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Rise, Peak, Decline, & ??Rise, Peak, Decline, & ?? Start Peak End

Annual Immigration (in 000s)

Legal Permanent Residents(LPRs)

UnauthorizedMigrants

Legal TemporaryMigrants

Note: Unauthorized exceed LPRs after 1997.

Percent Approaches Historic HighsPercent Approaches Historic HighsImmigrant Numbers Keep Growing --Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --

0

10

20

30

40

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Foreign-Born Population (millions)

Percent Foreign-Born of Total

14.8 Percent

35.2 Million

(2005 CPS)

4.7 Percent

42-43 Million

13.5 Percent

12.1 Percent(2005)

Percent Approaches Historic HighsPercent Approaches Historic HighsImmigrant Numbers Keep Growing --Immigrant Numbers Keep Growing --

0

10

20

30

40

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Foreign-Born Population (millions)

Percent Foreign-Born of Total

Latin American-Born Population 35.2 Million

(2005 CPS)

900,000(1960)

42-43 Million

20 Million(2005)

Undocumented Clearly atNew High -- Trend Uncertain

Undocumented Clearly atNew High -- Trend Uncertain

3.9

4

3 3.3

5

2.5

10.3(2004)

8.4

Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S.

4-80 6-891-82 6-86 10-9610-92 4-00 3-04

Legal Permanent Resident (LPR)

Aliens(10.4 million) 29%

Temporary Legal Residents

(1.2 million) 3%

Refugee Arrivals-- (Post-’80)

(2.5 million) 7%

Unauthorized Migrants

(10.3 million) 29%

35.7 Million Foreign-Born in 2004(Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS)

Legal Status of ImmigrantsLegal Status of Immigrants

Naturalized Citizens (former LPRs)

(11.3 million) 32%

Latin Americans & Asians

Dominate Foreign-Born

Latin Americans & Asians

Dominate Foreign-BornOther Latin America -- 23%

8.2 million

Africa & Other -- 4%1.5 million

Europe & Canada -- 15%5.5 million

Asia -- 25%9.0 million

Mexico -- 32%11.2 million

35.3 Million Foreign-Born in 2004(Adjusted March 2004 CPS)

Undocumented AreLargely Latin

American

Undocumented AreLargely Latin

American

10.3 Million in March 2004

OtherLatin America -- 24%

2.5 million

Africa & Other -- 4%0.4 million

Europe &Canada -- 6%

0.6 million

Asia -- 9%1.0 million

Mexico -- 57%5.9 million

.013 .024 .042 .068 .078 .222.486 .641

.377 .454 .576 .760

4.5

6.7

9.2

2.2

.103 1.4%3.0%

8%

16%

23%

9.2%8.3%

6.7%5.2%

0

2

4

6

8

10

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

Mexican-Born Population in the U.S. (000s)Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born PopulationPercent of Mexican Population in U.S.

Rapid Growth of Mexicans Continues

Rapid Growth of Mexicans ContinuesMillions of Migrants in U.S. Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born

31%10,650,000

(2004 CPS)

13%12%7%

37%58%57%

47%

29%13%

400

660680

390

1,100

550

650

990

575

El Salv Guat Hond Oth CenAm

Cuba D.R. Haiti Jam. OtherCarib

Legal

Unauthorized

Central America similar to Mexico

Caribbean Flows Largely Legal

Central America similar to Mexico

Caribbean Flows Largely LegalForeign-Born Population, 2004and Percent Unauthorized

40%33%

16%23%23%37% 10%

275 290

630

450

210280

1,175

Braz Col Ecua Guyana Peru Oth SAmer

Mid-East

Legal

Unauthorized

South American Flows SmallerRelative to Others

South American Flows SmallerRelative to Others

Foreign-Born Population, 2004and Percent Unauthorized

Immigrants Are ConcentratedImmigrants Are Concentrated

35.3 Million Foreign-Born(Adjusted March 2004 CPS)

Texas – 10%(3.5 million)

New York – 11%(3.9 million)

Florida – 9%(3.2 million)

Arizona – 3%(970,000)

New Jersey – 5%(1.6 million)

All Others – 31%(11.0 million)

California – 28%(9.8 million)

Illinois – 4%(1.4 million)

New Immigration Growth CentersNew Immigration Growth Centers

Immigration CategoriesMajor Destinations (67% of Immigrants) (6)

All Other States (23)

New Growth States (1990-2000 > 91%) (22)Top 10 Growth States (135-274%) (10)

Unauthorized Concentrated,but Spreading

Unauthorized Concentrated,but Spreading

California – 24%2.4 million

10 Million for 2002-2004

Florida – 9%850,000

Texas – 14%1.4 million

New York – 7%650,000

Arizona* – 5%450,000-500,000

Illinois – 4%400,000New Jersey – 4%

350,000North Carolina* – 3%

300,000

All Others – 32%3.1 million

45%

15%

11%9%

4% 4%

14%

4% 4%7%

9%

24%

CA NY TX FL IL NJ All Other

1990

2004

Major Redistribution Away From

Big 6 Settlement States

Major Redistribution Away From

Big 6 Settlement StatesPercent of Total Undocumented Immigrant Population

39% -- 3.9 Million

12% -- 400,000

New Growth --> High % UndocumentedNew Growth --> High % Undocumented

2004 Composition CategoriesHighest % Undocumented (40-60%) (19)

Lower % Undocumented (20-29%) (13)High % Undocumented (30-35%) (8)

Lowest % Undocumented (<20%) (11)

Very Highest % (46-60%) (11)

Note: Revision based on adjusted March 2004 CPS .

21 %

3 %6 %6 % 6 %

21 %

California Texas Arizona Illinois All Others

1990 (4.5 Million)

1996 (6.7 Million)

2004 (10.6 Million)

Mexicans Diversify, Too

Mexicans Diversify, Too Percent of U.S. Mexicans58% -- 2.5 million

38% -- 4.1 million

29% -- 3.1 million

12% -- 0.5 million

19%

6%7%

4% 4%

15%

5%

2%

23%

Mexico Belize CostaRica

El Salv Guat Hond Nicar Panama Canada

`

Many Mexicans/Salvadorans in USMany Mexicans/Salvadorans in USPercent of County and Country’s

Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004

Share of“Central American”

Population in U.S. —

9%

Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.

12%10%

24%

9%

22%

33%

28%

17%

12%

P.R. Bahamas Barbad Cuba Dom Rep Grenada Haiti Jamaica Trin &Tob

`

Larger Share of West Indians in USLarger Share of West Indians in USPercent of County and Country’s

Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004Share of

“Caribbean”Population in U.S. —

15%

Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.

1%3%

34%

1% 1%1% 2%1%0%1%

Arg Bol Brazil Chile Col Ecuad Guyana Peru Urug Venez

`

Only Guyana Sends Large ShareOnly Guyana Sends Large SharePercent of County and Country’s Birth & Parentage Population (<40) in US, 2004

Share of“South American`”

Population in U.S. —

1%

Note: Based on adjusted March 2004 CPS.

Characteristics of UnauthorizedCharacteristics of Unauthorized

• Who Are They? -- Mainly in Families -- Relatively Young -- Almost All Work

• What Are They Like? -- Low Education -- Jobs reflect Skills -- Low Education -- Lack of Insurance

Unauthorized Families

Mixed Composition

Unauthorized Families

Mixed Composition

13.9 million inUnauthorized Families (2004)

UnauthorizedChildren

1.6 million14% of all

unauthorized

Other Adults400,000

U.S. CitizenChildren

3.1 million67% of kids

Adult Women3.9 million

44% of Adults

Adult Men4.9 million

56% of Adults

62%

34%

11%

5%

21%

30%

13%

48%

10%

18%

25%

52%

8%

30%

Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other

Nativ

es

Education “Hourglass” & “Diamond”Education “Hourglass” & “Diamond”

Less than High SchoolGraduate

College Degreeor Beyond

Share of Each Group’s 25-64 Population, 2004

Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

91%

77%

86%

50%

69% 68%

59%

66%63%

90%

81%

90%83%

73%

Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other Mex C Am Carib S Amer P.R. Other

Nativ

es

Men more likely to work; Women lessMen more likely to work; Women lessMales

Females

Labor Force Participation, Ages 18-64, 2004

Note: Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations

Unauthorized in Lower Wage & Education Occupations

Service Occupations33% – (15%)

6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004

Transportation &Material Moving

8% – (6%)

Management, Business, &Professional 10% – (35%)

Production, Installation, &

Repair16% – (10%)

Construction & Extractive17% – (6%) Farming, etc. 3% – (1%)

Sales & Admin. Support13% – (27%)

Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” occupation groupis shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries

Unauthorized Over-Represented in a Few Industries

Construction17% – (7%)

All OtherIndustries

17% – (43%)

Leisure & Hospitality18% – (8%)

Other Services6% – (5%)

Wholesale & Retail Trade12% – (15%)

Professional & Business Services 12% – (15%)

Manufacturing15% – (12%)

6.3 Million Unauthorized Workers, 2004Note: Share of native workers falling in the “major” industry groupis shown in parentheses. Based on unadjusted March 2004 CPS

$29,600

$41,500$44,100

$54,700

$20,500

$28,000

$21,100$23,300

$31,200

$36,900

$28,300

$33,800

Mex Cent Am Caribbean P.R.-born S Amer All Other

Incomes Increase with Time in USIncomes Increase with Time in US

Natives$47,800

In U.S. <10 Years In U.S. 10+ Years

Average Family Income, 2003

$15,000

$20,700$20,200

$25,400

$9,500

$11,600$12,300

$11,800

$14,200

$10,100

$17,900

$14,400

Mex Cent Am Caribbean P.R.-born S Amer All Other

Income per Person SuffersIncome per Person Suffers

Natives$24,100

Average Family Income per Person, 2003

In U.S. <10 Years In U.S. 10+ Years

316

186

288

257

230

210 241

317

347377

351

395

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

"Fitted" Trend 1960-2000

No Post-1960 Immigration

Main Projection

No Post-2000 Immigration

Low Immigration (-50%)

High Immigration (+50%)

Immigration Drives GrowthImmigration Drives GrowthPopulation in millions

53

6.7

37.7

24.5

15.810.2

14

52

67

8571

95

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

"Fitted" Trend 1960-2000

No Post-1960 Immigration

Main Projection

No Post-2000 Immigration

Low Immigration (-50%)

High Immigration (+50%)

Immigration Critical for HispanicsImmigration Critical for HispanicsPopulation in millions

Projected Role ofImmigrants in Work

Force

Projected Role ofImmigrants in Work

Force• Immigration Drives Growth

• Education Upgrading of LF -- Better Education -- “Aging Out” of Low Education

• Aging Population, 2010-2030

• Immigrants Help Social Security -- Relatively Small Impact -- Offsets from More Children

198

142

151

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Middle Immigration Series

No Post-2000 Immigration

Labor Force Grows in FutureDriven by Immigration (esp. after 2015)

Labor Force Grows in FutureDriven by Immigration (esp. after 2015)

Labor Force (in millions)

• Large, Increasing Flows Overall

• Increases Due to Unauthorized

• Responsive to Origin &Destination -- Job Availability in U.S. -- Conditions in Mexico & Elsewhere

• New Destinations Emerge

• Decrease from Peak in Response to Economic

Decline

Migration Flows to U.S.Migration Flows to U.S.

• Large Numbers (10+ million)• Scattered Around Country• Mixed, Young Families• Significant “Investments”• Potential Economic Mobility• Continued High Demand (?)• Opening Up to New Flows

(?)

Impact of New ProgramsImpact of New Programs

For more information,contact:

Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.Pew Hispanic CenterPew Research Center

1615 L St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036

Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D.Pew Hispanic CenterPew Research Center

1615 L St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20036

(202) 419-3625jpassel@pewhispanic.org

www.pewhispanic.org