cven 5393 water resources systems and management...

CVEN 5393

Water Resources Systems and Management

Lecture 1 – January 14, 2013

E. Zagona – Director, Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES) and

Research Professor, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering

Lecture/Class Outline

• Introductions • Prerequisites • Class Logistics • Introduction to Water Resources Systems and

Management with class discussion • Brief Review of Syllabus and Topics • Introduction to RiverWare • Homework #1 • Online RiverWare instruction and exercises next week

Water Resources Development and Management:

What kind of problems are addressed?

Who is in charge of identifying and solving the

problems?

Late 19th Century Western US

Reclamation Act of 1902: Authorized Federal Govt to build projects to “reclaim” land for productive agriculture.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Late 19th century, the ARID western US required settlers to use irrigation for agriculture. Most runoff in spring, no way to store for summer/fall. Sizeable storage projects required large investment. The US government wanted the west to be settled for national security reasons. Reclamation operates about 180 projects in the 17 Western States. The total Reclamation investment for completed project facilities in September of 1992 was about$11.0 billion. Reclamation projects provide agricultural, household, and industrial water to about one-third of the population of the American West.

In early 20th Century the Tennessee Valley was the poorest area of the US

TVA Act of 1933 650-mile navigation channel Nation’s largest electricity supplier 49 dams, 29 hydroelectric plants, 165 billion kwh $250M flood reduction; self-funded since 1999

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Even by Depression standards, the Tennessee Valley was in sad shape in 1933. Farm land depleted; much erosion; timber cut; population rural, uneducated; no electricity; frequent floods; unreliable navigation; malaria prevalent; TVA was established by Congress in 1933 to address a wide range of environmental, economic, and technological issues, including the delivery of low-cost electricity and the management of natural resources. From the start, TVA established a unique problem-solving approach to fulfilling its mission: integrated resource management. Each issue TVA faced was weighed in relation to the whole picture.

"Southern water is plentiful, northern water scarce. If at all possible, borrowing some water would be good.” --- Mao Tse-tung

• Western: headwater diversions via huge dams and long tunnels

• Central: Han R. under Yellow R. to Beijing

• Eastern: Grand Canal upgrades and pumping from Yangtze

• Diversion of water from Brahmaputra R. and Mekong R. to arid northwestern China. $62B; divert 44.8bcm/y

Dozens of huge dams Displacement of millions; Major environ. Problems Completed by 2015

The Imnam Dam on the Bukhan River in North Korea was constructed 1986-2003 with capacity of 2.62 b tons of water.

War scenarios forsee huge releases to flood Seoul, downstream.

South Korea constructed a dam, the Peace Dam, completed in 2005, 22 miles downstream. It holds no water, but could hold up to 2.61 b tons.

What kind of problems were addressed? Water availability (quantity and timing) Social and economic concerns Political issues Who was in charge of identifying and solving the problems? Governments What design and analysis techniques were used? Top down; Engineering-biased

Water Resources Development and Management in 20th century

Recent History of WR Development Late 19th century innovations in technology

– advances in structural design – new material: structural concrete

Dam-building dominated the mid-20th century Supply-oriented and engineering-biased

Environmental Movement in US 1948 – first water pollution control act 1955 – Air Pollution control Act 1956 – Sierra Club stops Echo Park Dam in Dinosaur National Monument, UT 1962 – “Silent Spring” 1968 – Wild and Scenic Rivers Act; Sierra Club stops dam in Grand Canyon 1970 – National Resources Defense Council is established First “Earth Day” – with 20 million participants nation-wide

EPA established; NOAA established; NEPA signed into law 1972 – “Limits to Growth” published and DDT banned 1973 – Endangered Species Act to prevent extinction of animals in the US 1974 – Safe Drinking Water Act 1977 – Energy Plan: 20% renewables by 2000; DOE established; 1978 – Love Canal and “Superfund” legislation 1985 – Ozone hole confirmed; Montreal protocol to phase out CFCs by 2000 1988 – NASA scientist warns Congress about Global Warming; IPCC established by WMO and UN Environmental Program 2005 – Kyoto protocol

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Presentation Notes

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) is established to provide citizens with the tools to draft environmental laws and lobby for their passage. The first national Earth Day. Co-chaired by Congressman Pete McCloskey and coordinated by Denis Hayes, the first Earth Day takes the form of a nationwide protest against environmental ignorance. An estimated 20 million people participate across the country, in what will ultimately be the largest demonstration ever in American history. The Limits to Growth, a study of the interaction between population, industrial growth, food production and ecosystem limits. In the book, Meadows demonstrates with clear diagrams and linear models that Earth’s resources are being steadily used up, and as these resources drop, human population is expanding exponentially. The Limits to Growth predicts that by the middle of the 21st century, Earth’s population will no longer be sustainable and the ecosystem will completely collapse. The EPA will be responsible for the passage of environmental legislation, ecological programs, and research. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is created to monitor and improve the conditions of the oceans. NOAA enforces the sustainable use of resources of coastal and marine ecosystems and supplies environmental information to the public. Signed into law by President Richard Nixon on January 1, 1970, NEPA set forth a bold new vision for America. Acknowledging the decades of environmental neglect that had significantly degraded the nation's landscape and damaged the human environment, the law was established to foster and promote the general welfare, to create and maintain conditions under which man and nature can exist in productive harmony, and fulfill the social, economic, and other requirements of present and future generations of Americans. President Carter establishes the Department of Energy (DOE), charged with carrying out a comprehensive national energy plan that reflects the federal legislation. The DOE takes accountability for long-term research and technological development, energy regulation, nuclear weapons, and energy data collection and analysis. 1981 New President Ronald Reagan issues an Executive Order that gives the Office of Management and Budget (OMB ) the power to regulate environmental proposals before they become public. Reagan also cuts the budget of the Environmental Protection Agency by 12% and staff by 11%. The solar water heating system on the White House roof, installed by President Carter, will be dismantled in Reagan’s second term in August 1986. President Reagan cuts the EPA’s budget to 44% of its 1978 level, and the number of enforcement cases submitted to the EPA during the fiscal year will decline by 56%. Nature magazine publishes an article providing evidence that confirms the ozone hole over the Antarctic. This article creates a new wave of media attention on the now-stalled environmental movement. The ozone is estimated to have been declining at about 4% of the total volume per decade since the 1970s. This study and confirmation by the Nimbus-7 satellite catalyzes a torrent of studies investigating the consequences of ozone depletion.

NEPA 1970

• Federal project planning and decision-making requires environmental impact assessment.

• consider environmental values alongside the technical and economic considerations

• Environmental impact assessment also calls for the evaluation of reasonable alternatives to a proposed Federal action;

• solicitation of input from organizations and individuals that could potentially be affected;

• and the unbiased presentation of direct, indirect, and cumulative environmental impacts.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

NEPA advanced an interdisciplinary approach to Federal project planning and decisionmaking through environmental impact assessment. This approach requires Federal officials to consider environmental values alongside the technical and economic considerations that are inherent factors in Federal decision making. Environmental impact assessment also calls for the evaluation of reasonable alternatives to a proposed Federal action; solicitation of input from organizations and individuals that could potentially be affected; and the unbiased presentation of direct, indirect, and cumulative environmental impacts. This information is used by a Federal official before a decision is made. Doing so results in informed, and ultimately, improved Federal decision making.

World Commission on Dams Est. by World Bank in response to growing opposition

to large dams worldwide in 1998 Findings: • Dams have been beneficial but often the price has been to high

in social and environmental terms. • Large dams have failed to produce as much electricity, provide

as much water, or control as much flood damage as their supporters predicted; the projects regularly suffer major cost overruns and time delays

• 40-80 million people have been forced from their homes and lands with no compensation

• Dams cause great environmental damage • Benefits have largely gone to the rich while the poor have borne

the costs

In response to the failure of water projects around the world to meet the needs of society, a new movement began….

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Presentation Notes

But the worldwide water problems demonstrate that humankind as a whole is still far away from finding sustainable ways to manage water resources. Despite considerable efforts, water scarcity is expected to increase and both, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of further damage, for example due to changes in agricultural practice, demographic structure and climate.

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)

Moving from a mainly top-down, supply-oriented, engineering-biased approach towards a demand-oriented, multi-sectoral approach and comprehensive water resources planning

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The concept of IWRM makes us move away from top-down ‘water master planning’ (see Section 5.1.1), which focuses on water availability and development, towards ‘comprehensive water policy planning’ which addresses the interaction between different sub-sectors, seeks to establish priorities, considers institutional requirements and deals with the building of management capacity.

IWRM…

“… a process which promotes the co-ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems."

(Global Water Partnership 2000: 22) The basis of IWRM is that the many different uses of finite water resources are interdependent.

• IWRM is based on the understanding that water resources are an integral component of the ecosystem, a natural resource, and a social and economic good.

Operationally IWRM…

• Is comprehensive, multi-disciplinary

• Involves stakeholder participation

• Finds equitable and sustainable solutions

• Balances social and economic needs, and ensures the protection of ecosystems for future generations

• Is an open, flexible process, bringing together decision-makers across the various sectors that impact water resources, and bringing all stakeholders to the table to set policy and make sound, balanced decisions in response to specific water challenges faced.

IWRM was defined by the Dublin Principles in 1992:

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Presentation Notes

The Dublin Statement on Water and Sustainable Development, also known as the Dublin Principles, was a meeting of experts on water related problems that took place on the 31st of January 1992 at the International Conference on Water and the Environment (ICWE), Dublin, Ireland, organised on 26–31 January 1992. The Dublin Statement on Water and Sustainable Development recognises the increasing scarcity of water as a result of the different conflicting uses and overuses of water. The emphasis of the Dublin Statement on the economic value of water rather than water as a universal right is highly contested by NGOs and human rights activists. Up till today it is still the only binding UN document that makes a statement on the issue. In November 2002, however, the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights adopted General Comment No. 15, which was formulated by experts as a comment on articles 11 and 12 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.[3] In this comment, water is recognised not only as a limited natural resource and a public good but also as a human right. This step - adopting General Comment No. 15 - is seen as a decisive step towards the recognition of water as universal right, although the document has no legally binding power.

Sustainability is the capacity to endure. In ecology the word describes how biological systems remain diverse and productive over time. For humans,

sustainability is the potential for long-term maintenance of well being, which has environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sustainable water resources systems are those designed and operated in ways that make them more adaptive, robust and resilient to an uncertain and changing future

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The relationship between "Sustainable" and "Integrated" Water Resources Management is essentially that sustainability is the general goal whereas Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is a strategy for pursuing this goal. �Sustainability is the vision the management of natural resources.

Process (steps) in addressing a water resources development/management problem

• Problems are identified and resources allocated to address study/assess/plan

• All relevant aspects of the problem are identified/ characterized

• Analysis is performed • Results are transmitted to decision-makers

and stakeholders who may negotiate • Decisions are make and implemented

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Water resources engineers are involved in the middle 3

As water resources engineers, how can we accomplish this?

1. Identify purposes and objectives of the problem/solution (with stakeholders and policy makers) – What are the components (system) to be

included? – Identify Alternatives – Performance criteria, costs and benefits – ID Competing or conflicting objectives – Include impacts that can’t be monetized – Anticipate possible future situations


2. Gather Data; some date is uncertain or incomplete

– What hydrology date is adequate? – How can it be obtained or produced? – Is the climate changing? How to use climate

change projections? – What cost data is needed? – Which objectives are not easy to quantify?

Tree ring reconstructed flows Direct Paleo - ISM applied to Meko - paleo flow (762-2005) (Meko et al., 2007)

1244 traces Nonparametric Paleo Conditioned - Meko - paleo conditioned (Prairie,

2006) 125 traces (combines historic magnitudes with paleo sequences)

Model Progression from GCM to Streamflow

Start with GCM output that is uncertain (probability is not known) Need to downscale to finer grid, apply local weather models, additional uncertainty in hydrology models that are not calibrated to these conditions.

Colorado Water Conservation Board 2008)


3. Analysis – Models – Statistical analysis – How to maximize benefits (what are computational

approaches?) • optimization

– What information will be needed by decision-makers?

• Cost/benefit; Reliability • Sensitivity analysis • Tradeoff analysis


3. Present results in a decision framework – Scope and Assumptions of study – Performance of various alternatives – Tradeoffs among key criteria – Sensitivity of results to uncertainties – Multi-criteria decision framework

Topic of this class support modern water resources development and

management

• Reservoir “engineering” • Modeling river/reservoir systems • Systems approaches (optimization) • Analysis of hydrologic data and synthesis of

stochastic data • Decision Analysis

Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES)

• R&D for Water Management Agencies and Hydropower Utilities

• Decision Support software tools (RiverWare®) • Collaboration with and among Agencies • Grad student research; integration of research into

products and techniques for use by agencies • Technology Transfer

A General River and Reservoir

Modeling Tool

Developed at the University of Colorado Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CU-CADSWES)

1993 to present through collaborative research and development with

Tennessee Valley Authority U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

http://www.tva.gov/index.htm

Uses of RiverWare

• Planning, reliability assessment and decision-making for • New infrastructure development or new demands • policy development and evaluation • EIS, FERC • climate change • Compact or treaty negotiations

• Scheduling of Operations (reservoir releases, diversions, transfers, hydropower optimal generation)

• Water accounting, priority water rights allocation

• Facilitate stakeholder participation and collaborative decision-making

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Sustainability: reliable water supply, protection from floods, good water quality, protection of ecosystems, economic viability (need water for industry, energy production, navigation, etc.), recreation….

Who uses RiverWare?

• Water management agencies Reclamation, Corps of Engineers, States, Cites, Water Districts

• Federal Agencies and Tribes BIA, USGS, National Park Service, Intern’tl Boundary Water Commission

• Water Utilities TVA, Southwest Power, LCRA, Mid-Columbia PUDs, East Bay Municipal Utility District, BPA

• Consultants Hydros, Stetson, Riverside Technologies, CDM, Tetra Tech, HDR, AECOM, …

• Researchers and NGOs Pacific Northwest and Oakridge National Labs, Universities, NGOs …

• International Governments, Researchers, Consultants…. 31

Presenter

Presentation Notes

RiverWare is used by water managers in a variety of agencies, by other water-related federal agencies, by utilities who deliver water and power to consumers, by consultants and researchers.

Applications

Lower Colorado River Authority Texas

The Upper Rio Grande Water Operations Model

Arkansas Basin - USACE

Snake River Basin

Truckee-Carson

RiverWare – a licensed software product

• Licensing – Available through the University of Colorado Office of Technology

Transfer – License fees contribute to software maintenance – RiverWare VIEWER is free – can view models and results

• Developed with a team of professional software developers using standard development processes

• Source control; version control; issue tracking • Training & User Support • Continued Enhancements via contracts and grants from

sponsoring agencies ($1M+ per year) • Currently undergoing a CleanTech MAP Process to investigate

feasibility of taking the software project out of University

Assessing the Value of Integrated Hydropower and Wind Generation

Mid-Columbia Projects

Goal : Develop framework to evaluate impact of wind on hydro with realistic hydro model

ORNL chose Mid-Columbia system Highly-constrained system High wind potential and existing wind Willing participation from Mid-C utilities

CADSWES developed Mid-C model and framework Meetings with ORNL and Mid-C utilities to obtain physical

and policy info and model validation

Complex interactions between the physical system and policy produce a highly non-linear response to changing wind penetration

Improve Western Wind Study Results: Use RiverWare to optimize the operation of hydro power facilities taking into account all the operational objectives and constraints while maximizing their participation in the production of electricity and ancillary services as modeled by NREL into the power system production model PLEXOS. Based on this simulation, the researchers will be able to review the common assumptions used to model hydro in long-term electric planning and production cost studies and make recommendations that will benefit the integration of high penetration of renewable energy.

Stochastic Flows and Reservoir Management at 2 Time Scales on the Colorado River – Zagona and Balaji

(2-year study 2009-11 and current follow-on study)

• Improve mid-term forcasting (2-5 years) • Developed new forecasting techniques and management

strategies to improve operations (Bracken, M.S.) • Investigated decadal variabilities in streamflow • Development management strategies using knowledge of

decadal variability (Nowak, Ph.D.)

Reconstructed AMO (red) and low-frequency component of PC1 (inverse) of Woodhouse Lees Ferry reconstruction (Nowak, Rajagopalan, Zagona)

Tree ring reconstructed flows

Developed Midterm Probabalistic Operations Model

Modeling Future Reliability of Environmental Flows in the Colorado River Basin (Butler, M.S.)

• Establish e-flow points in decision model – Address spatial and temporal scale discrepancies – New method of e-flow evaluation at monthly timestep in basin-wide model

• Model the reliability of e-flows – Climate change – Alternative demand and development scenarios

• Sensitivity of e-flows to decisions • New method of e-flow evaluation at monthly timestep in basin-wide

model • Results were used as performance criteria in Colorado River Basin Study

Advancing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with Stochastic Meteorological Forcings for Hydrologic Modeling (Balaji et al)

Caraway M.S., Daugherty, M.S.

• Development of stochastic weather generator to improve seasonal forecasts

• Add to RFC’s CHPS suite of tools

• Test with Reclamation’s new probabalistic midterm model

• Evaluate improved decision making in San Juan Basin

• RFC will incorporate this method to provide better forecasts for Reclamation in spring

Tools and Techniques for Basin Scale Climate Assessment (Zagona, Balaji)

Sustain and Manage America's Resources

for Tomorrow

Hydrology Simulator

Generate Ensemble of Future Supplies using various techniques and spatial/temporal disaggregation • Historic resampled • Paleo conditioned • Climate change conditioned

Demand Input Tool

Develop demand scenarios based on • Sector (Ag, energy, M&I, etc) • Future use • Political/Geographic Boundaries Automatic import into models


Robust Decision Analysis • Strategy: Robust decision making - Consider many possible future conditions, without

quantified uncertainties.

• Identify strategies that are robust over a range of possible futures. Give up some performance for the “expected” future in exchange for improved performance over a broader range of future conditions.

Current Research evaluating strategies for decision-making under deep uncertainties • Represent many possible futures (hydrology; demands; ….) • Simulate system behavior for all conditions • Quantify performance indicators over time • Recognize signposts of vulnerable states • Decide which options to implement and when • Measure improvement (or degradation) over no-action • Identify most effective/robust and beneficial options (current efforts in this area) • Move model forward in time and improve constantly

Thank you

cven 5393 water resources systems and management...

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