Cyberinfrastructure Enabling Breakthrough Science: Changing the World with the IPCC AR4

Cyberinfrastructure Enabling Breakthrough Science: Changing the World with the IPCC AR4

Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado

Lawrence BujaNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado

CAM T340- Jim Hack

“Science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.”

Walter Orr Roberts

Lawrence BujaContributing Author, IPCC AR4 National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado

Lawrence BujaContributing Author, IPCC AR4 National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado

Cyberinfrastructure Enabling Breakthrough Science:

Changing the World with the IPCC AR4

Cyberinfrastructure Enabling Breakthrough Science:

Changing the World with the IPCC AR4

NCAR Scientific Support facilities

2. Supercomputer/Network Resources

3. Scientific Models

- National Science Foundation FFRDC- 900 Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers- 4 Boulder-area campuses

1. Observational Facilities

Climate Modeling Basics

The IPCC AR4 Simulations and Report

Next Steps

Cyberinfrastructure

Lessons from the Past

Timeline of Climate Model Development

ChemistryClimate

ChemistryClimate

BioGeoChemistryBioGeoChemistry

Software EngineeringSoftware Engineering

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability

Polar ClimatePolar

ClimateLand ModelLand Model

PaleoClimate PaleoClimate

Ocean Model Ocean Model

CCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working GroupsCCSM Working Groups DevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopmentDevelopment

ApplicationApplication ApplicationApplication

AtmModel

AtmModel

Climate ChangeClimate Change

CCSM is primarily sponsored by the National Science Foundation

and the Department of Energy

The Earth Climate System

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

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Life

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Benefits

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Seamless Suite of Forecasts

Weather Prediction

Climate

Prediction

Climate

Change

Trenberth

Predictability of weather and climate

Trenberth

CO2,CH4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era)0 = 1880-1899 mean.

Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

Climate of the last Millennium

Caspar AmmannNCAR/CGD

Climate Modeling Basics

The IPCC AR4 Simulations and Report

Next Steps

Cyberinfrastructure

Lessons from the Past

WG1: Scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. • Summary for Policy Makers: Feb 2007• Full Report: May 2007

WG2: Vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems, consequences of climate change & options for adapting to it.

• Summary for Policy Makers: Apr 2007• Full Report: Jun 2007

WG3: Options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.

•Summary For Policy Makers May 2007• Full Report 2007

IPCC AR4: Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

Assess the state of knowledge on climate change based on peer reviewed and published scientific and technical literature on regular intervals.

NSF/DOE IPCC ProjectNCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ES

6-Year Timeline2002: Climate Model/Data-systems development2003: Climate Model Control Simulations2004: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations2005: Data Postprocessing & Analysis2006: Scientific Synthesis2007: Publication

Observations of the

Earths Climate System

Simulations Past, Present

Future Climate States

NSF/DOE IPCC Computing

Earth Simulator

NERSC (DOE)

ORNL (DOE)

NCAR (NSF)

Figures based on Tebaldi et al. 2006: Climatic Change, Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/tebaldi-extremes.html

Figures based on Tebaldi et al. 2006: Climatic Change, Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/tebaldi-extremes.html

Figures based on Tebaldi et al. 2006: Climatic Change, Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/tebaldi-extremes.html

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

“Abrupt”transition

Simulation of Future Climate

Ammann et al.

Since 1970, rise in: Decrease in: Global surface temperatures NH Snow extent Tropospheric temperatures Arctic sea ice Global SSTs, ocean Ts Cold temperatures Global sea level Glaciers Hurricane intensity Drought & Heat waves Extreme high temperatures (Trenberth)

Precipitation in extratropics Rainfall intensity Water vapor

IPCC AR4 WG1: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

• Warming is “unequivocal”

• “Very likely” the observed 20th century warming is due to human emissions.

•Water shortages affecting hundreds of millions of people will worsen with increased temperatures.•Declines in food production in the equatorial regions.•30% of plant and animal species facing extinction under a 1.5 to 2.5° rise.•Increased risks of coastal flooding the sea level rise•Extreme weather events to become more frequent and intense detecting

human health and well-being•Adaptation strategies to address unavoidable global warming outcomes.•Mitigation strategies to avoid/minimize delay future emissions warming

IPCC AR4 WG2: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

• Large-scale changes in food and water availability• Changing ecosystems.• Escalating flood hazards• Increases in extreme weather

• Alternative energy.• Energy efficiency.• Improved Industrial and agricultural practices• Geoengineering options are risky and unproven• Near term stabilization reduction has large long-term benefits• Policies and economic incentives and technology transfer• Additional research required to address some gaps in knowledge

IPCC AR4 WG3: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.

• Quick action can avoid some devastating effects

• Achievable with existing technologies, balancing economic costs with climate risks

Nature vol 4 446 22 March 2007

The Government is coming around

The Energy Sector is Reversing Course

The Public is now engaging at a level never seen before

Strength and clarity of IPCC AR4 message:

Greater trust in our models = f(↑ Science, ↑ HPC, ↑ CI )• More realistic processes

• Higher resolution

• More ensembles -> less uncertainty

• Long historical simulations

More trust in the observations• Satellites/obs showing a consistent picture of global warming worldwide

• Definitive resolution of problems in the observations

•Recent Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere (*)

•Historical sfc temperature reconstruction (Mann's hockey stick) {**}

•Natural variability: No observed trend in recent solar activity

Better agreement between the models and observations

• Glaciers, nature's independent climate integrators, showing increased edge melting and buildup in the centers consistent with Tebaldi & Meehl’s warmer/wetter world conclusion

Climate Change Epochs

Reproduce historical trends

Prove Climate Change is occurring

SRES Scenarios

Investigate Mitigation Approaches

Test Adaptation Strategies

Look at Regional Details

Work with Gov’t/IndustryPublic

Before IPCC AR4 After

Climate Modeling Basics

The IPCC AR4 Simulations and Report

Next Steps

Cyberinfrastructure

Lessons from the Past

Geo-engineeringThe intentional large-scale manipulation of the global environment. The term has usually been applied to proposals to manipulate the climate with the primary intention of reducing undesired climatic change caused by human influences. Geoengineering schemes seek to mitigate the effect of fossil-fuel combustion on the climate without abating fossil fuel use; for example, by placing shields in space to reduce the sunlight incident on the Earth.(D. Keith,1999. Geoengineering. Encyclopaedia of Global Change. New York)

Humans are already manipulating the environment deliberately, but generally not with the intention of inducing climate change.

Phil Rasch, NCAR

Krakatau

Santa Maria

Pinatubo

El Chichòn

Agung

Global average surface temperature (relative to 1870-1899 mean)

Major volcanic eruptions

°C

A1B °C change relative to 1870-1899 baseline

Alternate strategies being considered

• Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel)

• High Altitude Sulfur injections

• Seeding stratocumulus clouds to brighten clouds

• Sequestration of CO2

• Iron Fertilization, ...

Phil Rasch NCAR

Why do this study?

– A worry that we are transforming our energy system far too slowly to avoid the

risk of catastrophic climate change.

– What might be deployable in a planetary emergency to mitigate some of the

effects of greenhouse gas warming?

– We are not proposing that geo-engineering be done! We are proposing that the

implications be explored (see Crutzen study and Cicerone commentary,

Climatic Change, 2006)

Phil Rasch NCAR

Global Averaged Annual Averaged Surface Temperature change

(flawed representation for evap and sedimentation)

Phil Rasch

Cautions• There are obviously very important Moral, Ethical,

Legal issues to be considered here• Arguments have been made that we shouldn’t even

be considering these types of “solutions”. – Geoengineering will undercut society’s resolve to deal with

emissions– Action would change climate in different ways for different

nations. People in threatened regions most likely to use intervention

• Worst case outcomes– unanticipated impacts (e.g. CFC and ozone hole)– forestall global warming only to find we had triggered a new

ice age

Phil Rasch - NCAR

Likelihood of warming

•Stabilizing temperature requires stabilizing atmospheric CO2,

• Limiting warming to 2°C requires stabilization at 400-450ppm CO2 (Meinshausen et al., realclimate.org)

A short overshoot of atmospheric CO2 might be compatible with the 2°C target.

Preparing for IPCC AR5

5 HPC dimensions of Climate Prediction(Tim Palmer, ECMWF)

Data assimilation/initial value forecasts

Simulation complexity

All require much greater computer resource and more efficient modelling infrastructures

Resolution

Ensemble size

Timescale

Data assimilation/initial value forecasts

Simulation complexity

Spatial (x*y*z)Resolution

Ensemble size

Timescale(Years*timestep)

TodayTerascale

2015Exoscale

5

50

1000

CM: 5 Components

70

102010

Petascale

1.4°160km

0.2°22km

1000(AMR)

20

400

1Km10000

ESM = CM+ 10 Components (Life, $$$)

ESM + multiscale GCRM

100yr/20min

100

?

?

?

1000yr

3min

1000yr

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Code Rewrite

1st generation Earth System Model

Atmosphere Ocean

Coupler

Sea IceLand

C/NCycle

Dyn.Veg.

Ecosystem & BGCGas chem. Prognostic

AerosolsUpperAtm.

LandUse

IceSheets

T42 2.8°

FV 2.0°

T85 1.4°

FV 1.0°

T170 0.7°

FV 0.5°T340 .36° FV 0.25° FV 0.1°

0

50

100

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310k m

220k m

160k m

110k m

78k m

55k m

39k m 28k m11k m

GlobalGeneral

Circulation

Continentallarge-scale

flow

Regional

local

Paleoclimate

BGC/Carbon CycleSpin-ups

MJO convergence

Resolve Hurricanes

IPCC AR42004 4TF

IPCC AR31998

IPCC AR52010 500TF

CCSM GrandChallenge2010 1PF

Climate Modeling Basics

The IPCC AR4 Simulations and Report

Next Steps

Cyberinfrastructure

Lessons from the Past

CCSM IPCC Data Flow

TapeArchive Device

cpl

atm

ocn

icelnd

disk

disk

disk

TapeArchive Devices

T85 IPCC: 10K years @ 9.6 Gbytes/year

Super

Frontend

0.1 Gbytes

4.5 Gbytes

4.2 Gbytes

0.5 Gbytes

0.3 Gbytes

9.6 GB/yr

CDP/ESGPortals

QC1Raw Data

NCARDerived Products

QC2

ORNL

NERSC

Earth

Simulator

Data Delivered to the World

ESG Data Customers

DOE ESnet4 ConfigurationCore networks: 40-50 Gbps in 2009-2010, 160-400 Gbps in 2011-2012

Cle

vela

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Europe(GEANT)

Asia-Pacific

New York

Chicago

Washington DC

Atl

anta

CERN (30 Gbps)

Seattle

Albuquerque

Au

str

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San Diego

LA

Denver

South America(AMPATH)

South America(AMPATH)

Canada(CANARIE)

CERN (30 Gbps)Canada(CANARIE)

Europe(GEANT)

Asi

a-Pac

ific

Asia Pacific

GLORIAD (Russia and

China)

Boise

HoustonJacksonville

Tulsa

Boston

Science Data Network Core

IP Core

Kansa

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City

Au

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Core network fiber path is~ 14,000 miles / 24,000 km

162

5 m

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/ 2

545

km

2700 miles / 4300 km

Sunnyvale

Production IP core (10Gbps) ◄

SDN core (20-30-40Gbps) ◄

MANs (20-60 Gbps) or backbone loops for site access

International connections

IP core hubs

Primary DOE LabsSDN (switch) hubs

High speed cross-connectswith Ineternet2/AbilenePossible hubs

Lessons Learned

1. Observational data is very similar to model

data

2. Obs data very different from model data

Time

Val

ue

Obs data

Model data

Lessons Learned

Lessons Learned3. Don’t let scientists build their data management

and distribution systems on their own!

Building robust, useful data systems requires close collaboration between the two communities!

…but don’t let the CS folks do it alone, either

4. Effective Data Distribution Systems Require Sustained Investment

Home Grown Data Systems Earth System Grid /Community Data Portal

• Initially Cheap• $$$ in long term• Limited Scale

• Medium-Large Investment• Infrastructure for Small &

Large Projects• Spans Institutions

Lessons Learned

Climate Modeling Basics

The IPCC AR4 Simulations and Report

Next Steps

Cyberinfrastructure

Lessons from the Past

Lessons from the Past

Significant changesobserved at 4x CO2

Kiehl and Shields (2005)

Global Annual MeanEnergy Budget

Global Annual MeanSurface Temperature

Permiancoupled model run for2700 years to newequilibrium state

Forcing of 10Xincrease in CO2

and Permianpaleogeography

Ts> = 8°C

CCSM3 T31X3Kiehl and Shields

Kiehl and Shields (2005)

Inefficient mixingin Permian ocean indicativeof anoxia,consistent withlarge extinctionevent

Wignall(2005)

Clear evidence

Some evidence

No evidence

Summary: We’ve Changed the World.• Broad acceptance of the IPCC AR4 is a breakthrough

- Impossible without strong, mature cyberinfrastructure- Moving to studying solutions means increasing:

– Model complexity/realism/comprehensiveness– Even more data to deliver to more diverse communities

• The next step will require many new partnerships– Science, Engineering, Technology, and Application – Regional, National & International Partnerships – Development Agencies– Economics/Financial Sectors– Energy Industry

• We can’t fulfill our science mission without the CI community– “Lets the scientists be scientists”– Huge return on investment: Cheaper, Easier, Better– Allows us to reach huge new communities

Thanks! Any Questions?