cyclone, coastal society and migration: empirical evidence from bangladesh by bishawit mallick,...

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and

National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association

Institute of Regional Science (IfR), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany

www.ifr.kit.edu

Researchers' Workshop on

Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the PacificAsian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Cyclone, Coastal Society and Migration: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

Bishawjit Mallick

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its

Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any

consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as to sovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's

terminology.

Institute of Regional Science (IfR) of KIT, Germany2

Research Workshop

Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific

14 September 2011, Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

Content

Background context

Knowledge base and Research Question

Cyclone Aila

Empirical Note

Study area

Methods applied

Findings

Basic facts of empirical survey

Who, where and when moves out social clusters analysis

Consequences of moving out – social structural, bondage and relationship

Discussion and Conclusion


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Knowledge Base & Research Question

More than 26 million people of Bangladesh are likely to migrate to

urban areas due to extreme poverty and displacement due to natural

hazards (Myers, 2002)

2 of each 5 households in rural Bangladesh move from their original

villages due to an economic pull (Afsar 2003)

Address “Social Exclusion or Inclusion”

Changes in SOCIAL STRUCTURE

Disasters and chronic environmental degradation Population

Movement (Hunter 2005, Ponchelet et al. 2010) push and pull

environmental push and economic pull

How a cyclone affect on people„s livelihood and the socio-

economic transformation of coastal Bangladesh?


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Objectives

Overall:

How cyclone Aila affected on people„s livelihood and the socio-

economic transformation of coastal Bangladesh?

Specific:

Who are migrants and why? – analysis of socio-economic conditions of the

respondents

Which social groups are forced to move or displaced?

What are changes found in local social structure?

What can be an approach to mitigate such climatic displacement of the

people of sampled area?


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Empirical Note

Study Area

12 villages of Shyamnagor

Upazila, Satkhira

134 km²

0.25 to 3.5 m high abobe

mean-sea level

85000 population

Survey

Random sampling

280 households interview

GPS survey

21 in-depth interview

Snow-ball sampling

Group discussion


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Study area


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Methods applied & Data Source

Data Type Unit Source

Socio-economic

dataper union

Upazila Statistics Office, Shyamnagor,

Satkhira, Bangladesh

Damages and

Losses due to

Cyclone Aila

per unionUpazila Statistics Office, Shyamnagor,

Satkhira, Bangladesh

Upazila Map per unionLGED, Ministry of Food and Disaster

Management, Bangladesh

Field SurveyHousehold

(HH) level

March – May 2010

- a total of 280 households survey,

- Group Discussion, and

- Geographical Data by using GPS

- Snow-Ball Sampling method

Combination of Quantitative and Qualitative methods of Data Collection


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Results of Study

Move without family i.e. Male members of 35% (98 HH) of sampled HH moved nearer city within 3 weeks after the event Aila

Only 7% (20 HH) of sampled HH moved with their family

Total migrants families – 42% (118) of the sampled HH (280)

78% of them move to – Khulna, Satkhira and Bagerhat; 12% move to capital city Dhaka and 10% to Chittagong

Move with family (7%) – having links in city (66%) and rest have no link

Move without family (35%) – having links in city (36%) and then rest have no link

Damage cost appear to be positively correlated with HH income


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Movement status by Religion, Income, Housing Condition,

Land and Social Status of the Male Respondents

A. Variables B. Characteristics

representative for the

respondents (% of all

interviewees)

C. Status of Respondents of

column B

Remarks

Migrated Not Migrated

Religion Muslim (89 %) 32.8 % 66.2 % Religious identity,

income

opportunities,

damages and

losses, land

ownership and

social images have

most influence on

the decision making

of migration or

temporary

movement.

Hindu (11 %) 52 % 48 %

Monthly Income Level

Before Cyclone Aila

< 30 US$ (32 %) 86 % 14 %

30 – 75 US$ (62 %) 58 % 42 %

>75 US$ (6 %) 19 % 81 %

Housing Condition

After Cyclone Aila

Fully Damaged (48.9 %) 44.5 % 55.5 %

Partially Damaged (36 %) 36.6 % 73.4 %

Land Status Land Owner (88 %) 51 % 49 %

Khas-Land Recipient (10 %) 32 % 68 %

Landless (2 %) 66.6 % 33.3 %

Participation in Social

Decision Making

(Social Status)

Yes (11 %) 0 100%

No (89 %) 55 % 45 %


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Place and Time of Movement, Frequency of Family Visit

by respondents’ Income Status

Monthly

Income

Level (# of

Displaced

Respondent

)

Place of Movement (% of Respondents) Time of

Movement

Frequency of Family

Visits

Nearer Cities

(Khulna,

Satkhira,

Bagerhet) (78

%)

Dhaka

(Capital

City) (12 %)

Chittagong

(Port City)

(10%)

< 30US$

(31)

93.5 % 3.25 % 3.25 % < 4 weeks

after the

event

- 30% had visited at

least once after the

movement

- 60% had never visited

after the movement

- 10% have visited at

least twice or more

30 – 75 US$

(61)

77 % 13 % 10 % Within 4 to 8

weeks

after the

event> 75 US$ (6) 0 50 % 50 %

Income matters again!!!! „Economic Pull‟ Factors of movement???


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Who were displaced/ migrated?

A) Monthly family income: less than US$ 30, US$ 30-75 and more than US$ 75

B) Land ownership: less than 0.10 Acre, 0.10-0.50 Acre and more than 0.50 Acre

C) Damage cost due to cyclone Aila: less than US$ 145, US$ 145 – 430 and more than US$430


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Why displaced?

Variables used in PCAComponent Renamed variables/

component 1 2 3

Monthly income after Aila -.065 .005 .948 (3) Locally available

employment

opportunities Monthly expenditure after Aila -.042 .001 .949

Do you think you are better

prepared now to handle a

cyclone alike Aila?

.937 -.036 .014

(1) Individual

knowledge,

capability and

community

supports

What are the reasons that your

coping capability improved?.917 -.040 -.103

Do you have easy access to public

supports – cyclone shelter, relief

and rehabilitation works

.756 .010 -.043

Do you involved with micro-credit

program?-.026 1.000 .003

(2) Involvement with

micro-creditIf yes, precise numbers of your

loans-.026 1.000 .003


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Consequences of displacement/ migration


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Coping with problems

Problems they faces? –

insecurity of work and finances,

sub-standard housing,

lack of supports from the community,

traps of local politics i.e. insecurity

How they solve financial problems? –

borrowing from neighbors (25%),

co-workers (57%),

informal money lenders (18%)

seek access to other „micro-credit‟ organization vicious circle of credit


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Other ways of coping

Pull rickshaw/ Van

Work in dockyard, train station or bus-stoppages as baggage bearers

Mostly started „begging‟

Sleeping on railway station, foot-path or bus-stoppages etc

Borrowing money from local informal money lenders

Avoid communication with their dependents at local

Women and children are more likely to work, etc.


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Policy and Planning Outlook

Ensure more locally organized income opportunities, immediate after the end of relief-works

Appropriate measures for avoiding “vicious circle of credit” introduction of “Resource based Insurance Option” rather “multiplication of micro-loans” Example of Northern Kenya “Index base Livestock Insurance for Combating Drought (Barrett et al. 2010).

Empowerment of Local community based/ home-based industrial activities – if there is none of such industry, disaster mitigation managers should rethink about this.

Ensure participation of each and every family in rehabilitation activities i.e. earth work for reconstruction of embankments, cyclone shelter constructions, other (re-)construction or development activities etc.

Arrangement of institutional supports for the migrants both from the government and non-government organization during transition periods of displaced people.

Improvement of public supports services and climate change awarenessdevelopment programs


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Acknowledgement

Research grants and Scholarships

Ph.D. Research Grant from “Catholic Academic Foreign Services

(KAAD), Germany [www.kaad.de]

Field Research Grant from “Karlsruhe House of Young Scientist

(KHYS) [www.khys.kit.edu]

Ph.D. Training Grant from “Graduate School of Climate and

Environment (GRACE)” [www.grace.kit.edu]

Guidance for this research

Dr. Cecilia Tacoli, IIED, London

Dr. Robert Mcleman, University of Ottawa, Canada


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Thanks for your patience

&

Welcome for Discussion, Ideas and

Suggestions!

cyclone, coastal society and migration: empirical evidence from bangladesh by bishawit mallick,...

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