Cyprus-EU Relations in the Framework of the

Helsinki European Council’s Decisions:

Possible Scenarios for Cyprus Membership

ASSOC. PROF. DR. HASAN ALI BICAK

ASSOC. PROF. DR. WOJCIECH FORYSINSKI

THIRD INTERNATIONAL CONGRESSON CYPRUS STUDIES

13-17 November, 2000

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION1.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY1.2 STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY

2.MILESTONES IN EU-CYPRUS RELATIONS2.1 APPLICATION FOR ASSOCIATE

MEMBERSHIP2.2 APPLICATION FOR FULL MEMBERSHIP2.3 LUXEMBOURG AND HELSINKI

DECISIONS

3.SCENARIOS OF OTHER SCHOLARS3.1 NEILL NUGENT3.2 HEINZ-JURGEN AXT

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4. OUR SCENARIOS4.1 NO SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM

NO SOLUTION NO MEMBERSHIP (STATUS QUO CONTINUES)

NO SOLUTION AND “CYPRUS” BECOMES A MEMBER NO SOLUTION AND NORTH AND SOUTH BECOME

MEMBERS SEPARATELY

4.2 SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM SOLUTION BUT NO MEMBERSHIP SOLUTION AND MEMBERSHIP

– MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY– MEMBERSHIP WITH TURKEY– MEMBERSHIP WITH PRECONDITIONS 

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

AGENDA 2000, OPENED THE WAY FOR AN UNPRECEDENTED ENLARGEMENT (13 STATES)THE PROCESS OF ENLARGEMENT IS GAINING MOMENTUM (LUXEMBOURG AND HELSINKI SUMMITS)THE PROCESS OF ENLARGEMENT HAS, SO FAR, FAILED TO BE A CATALYST FOR THE SOLUTIONFIVE ROUNDS OF PROXIMITY TALKS ARE COMPLETED

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REPORTS ON PROGRESS TOWARD ACCESSION ARE PUBLISHED TOGETHER WITH A DRAFT ACCSESSION PARTNER SHIP FOR TURKEY

REPORTS ON TURKEY’S AND CYPRUS’S PROGRESS, TOWARD ACCESSION REFER TO THE SETTLEMENT OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM (AS A SHORT TERM TASK FOR 2001)

THE COMMISSION PROPOSES A ROAD MAP FOR THE NEGOTIATIONS

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THE PAPER AIMS TO IDENTIFY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE SETTLEMENT OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM AND CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

SCENARIOS WILL BE AS EXHAUSTIVE AS POSSIBLE. THEY WILL BE EVALUATED WITH RESPECT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING REALIZED

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1.2 STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY

NEXT SECTION WILL GIVE A VERY BRIEF OVERVIEW OF CYPRUS EU RELATIONS

SCENARIOS CONSTRUCTED BY OTHER SCHOLARS WILL BE SUMMARISED IN A CRITICAL WAY

OUR SCENARIOS AND SUBSCENARIOS WILL BE IDENTIFIED AND ANALYSED

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THE SETTLEMENT OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM IS CONSIDERED AS A KEY FACTOR AND, CONSEQUENTLY POSSIBLE SCENARIOS ARE CLASSIFIED INTO TWO BROAD CATEGORIES :

- NO SOLUTION SCENARIOS

- SOLUTION SCENARIOS

SUBSCENARIOS WILL INVESTIGATE ALTERNATIVES OF CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU.

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2. MILESTONES IN CYPRUS – EU RELATIONS

FIRST APPLICATION IN 1962

CUSTOMS UNION IN 1987

MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION IN 1993

COUNCIL DECISION OF 6 MARCH 1995

LUXEMBOURG COUNCIL DECISION (DEC 1997)

30 MARCH 1998, ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS STARTED

HELSINKI COUNCIL DECISION (DEC 1999)

THE REGULAR REPORT (2000)

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3. SCENARIOS OF OTHER SCHOLARS

A NUMBER OF SCHOLARS HAVE ALREADY TRIED TO PREDICT THE FUTURE FOR CYPRUS (NEILL NUGENT (2000), HEINZ – JURGEN AXT (1999), MANETTE NEUWAHL (2000), MELTEM MÜFTÜLER – BAC (1999), AND OTHERS)

NEILL NUGENT’S SCENARIOS

1. RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM (MOST DESIRED BY EU DECISION-MAKERS; UNLIKELY SCENARIO).

2. NO RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM, CYPRUS APPLICATION IS SHELVED, AND GREECE BLOCKS THE ACCESSION OF CEECS (UNLIKELY).

3. NO RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM, CYPRUS’S MEMBERSHIP IS SHELVED, AND CEECS ACCEDE.

4. NO RESOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM, BUT CYPRUS STILL ACCEDES (SOME VERSION OF THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST LIKELY)

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HEINZ-JÜRGEN AXT’S SCENARIOS1. SOLUTION FIRST (LEAST PROBABLE)

2. TWO CYPRIOT STATES IN THE EU – A LOOSE SORT OF CONFEDERATION

3. FIRST THE REPUBLIC AND THEN THE NORTH (THE NORTH WOULD HAVE THE OPTION TO JOIN THE EU LATER ON; SIMILAR TO GERMAN MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU; ITS REALIZATION IS DIFFICULT TO BE JUDGED)

4. COMPETENCE-MIXTURE IN A WEAK FEDERATION (RELATED WITH SCENARIO NUMBER 2 BUT MORE CONCRETE; DIFFICULT TO HANDLE FOR THE EU; THE MOST PROBABLE AND PROMISING ONE)

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AXT’S SCENARIOS: CRITIQUE

HE LOOKED MOSTLY FROM THE EU POINT OF EU

HE HAS NOT CONSIDERED THE “TURKEY FACTOR”, UNDERESTIMATED ITS INFLUENCE ON THE WHOLE PROCESS

NORTH CYPRUS WILL NOT FILL SAVE IN A MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO DOES NOT CONSIDER THE ABOVE PARAMETERS

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NUGENT’S SCENARIOS: CRITIQUE

MOST OF THE ARGUMENTS MADE FOR THE SCENARIOS OF AXT ALSO APPLY TO THE SCENARIOS OF NUGENT

NUGENT WAS ONE SIDED IN HIS SOURCES OF INFORMATION

HE CONSIDERS THAT THE APPLICATION COULD BE SHELVED (NO MEMBERSHIP), AS WELL AS MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT A SOLUTION

HE CONSIDERS “A MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT A SOLUTION” A VERSION OF IT AS THE MOST LIKELY

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CREDIT TO THE AUTHORS

AXT STRESSED THAT EU CANNOT BE A CATALYST TO THE SOLUTION OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM BUT TO ITS PERMANENT DIVISION.NUGENT REALIZES THE DIFFICULTIES OF CYPRUS ACCESSION TO THE EUHE ACKNOWLEDGES TURKEY’S IMPORTANCE BUT DOES NOT GO FAR ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AS A DECISIVE FACTORHE MAINTAINS THAT GREECE COULD NOT BE ABLE TO BLOCK THE ACCESSION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

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4. OUR SCENARIOS

A.NO SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEMPROXIMITY TALKS DID NOT CLOSE THE GAP

BETWEEN TWO PARTIESREACTION TO THE 12 SEPT STATEMENT (FOURTH ROUND)TURKISH CYPRIOT SIDE’S REACTION TO THE ANNAN’S NON – PAPER (FIFTH ROUND)

TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP IS TOO FAR (113 POINTS TO BE COVERED)SOLUTION IS NOT FEASIBLE IN A FORESEEABLE FUTURENO SOLUTION SCENARIOS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN SOLUTION SCENARIOS

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SUB SCENARIOS

1.NO SOLUTION NO MEMBERSHIP

HIGHLY PROBABLE

IT’S THE MEMBERS WHO DECIDE ABOUT THE MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU;SOME MEMBERS OPPOSE ACCESSION OF DIVIDED CYPRUS. OTHERWISE, CYPRUS IS THE FIRST MEMBER TO SATISFY THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA

ORIGINALLY THE EU WAS SUPPORTING “A SOLUTION BEFORE THE MEMBERSHIP” SCENARIO

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EU WOULD NOT WANT TO IMPORT A PROBLEM (DIVIDED ISLAND)

ISLAND IS DIVIDED AND ACQUIS COULD NOT BE IMPLEMENTED IN THE NORTH

BORDER’S OF THE EU WILL BE UNCERTAIN

MEMBERSHIP WILL ANTAGONIZE TURKEY (TURKEY IS THE 6TH GREATEST TRADING PARTNER OF THE EU)

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2. NO SOLUTION AND CYPRUS BECOMES A MEMBER

HIGHLY UNLIKELY

REASONS GIVEN IN SCENARIO 1 ARE VALID IN THIS CASE AS WELL

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3. NO SOLUTION AND TWO SIDES BECOME MEMBERS SEPARATELY

HIGHLY UNLIKELY

WE AGREE WITH AXT. IT IS NOT EASY TO AMEND UN RECOGNITION OF CYPRUS GOVERNMENT AND RECOGNIZE TRNC

TRNC IS FAR FROM SATISFYING THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA (ECONOMIC AND ACQUIS COMMUNAUTAIRE)

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4.2 SOLUTION TO THE CYPRUS PROBLEM

HIGHLY DIFFICULT (LOW PROBABILITY)REASONS GIVEN IN 4.1SUB – SCENARIOS WILL ASSUME A SOLUTION AND WILL BE EVALUATED WITH THIS ASSUMPTIONSOLUTION SCENARIOS ARE LESS LIKELY THAN NO SOLUTION SCENARIOSNOTE THAT IN SUBSCENARIOS EVEN IF THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE MAIN SCENARIO (NO SOLUTION) IS HIGH OR LOW , THE SUBSCENARIO IS EVALUATED ON ITS OWN

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SUB – SCENARIOS

A. MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY

VERY UNLIKELY

TURKEY DOES NOT WANT TO RISK ITS MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU (TWO VETOS)

TURKEY MAY LOSE NORTH CYPRUS IN THE EU

TURKISH CYPRIOTS WOULD NOT LIKE TO BE IN THE EU WITHOUT TURKEY (SECURITY REASONS)

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B. MEMBERSHIP WITH TURKEY

HIGHLY UNLIKELY

TIME FACTOR. TURKEY IS NOT READY. IT MAY TAKE YEARS BEFORE TURKEY MEETS THE COPENHAGEN CRITERIA

GREEK CYPRIOTS AND GREECE WILL OPPOSE

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C. MEMBERSHIP WITH THE PRE CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLESOLUTION BY ITSELF EVEN IF IT SATISFIES ALL THE DESIRES OF THE TURKISH CYPRIOT SIDE, IS NOT ENOUGH FOR MEMBERSHIP TURKEY WOULD NOT WANT TO RISK ITS MEMBERSHIP AND THE SECURITY ISSUE FOR THE TURKISH CYPRIOTSPRE CONDITION COULD INCLUDE CERTAINGUARANTIES FOR TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP WITH A TIME FRAMEEQUAL TREATMENT OF TURKEY WITH GREECE AFTER MEMBERSHIP IS NOT LIKELY. TURKEY COULD NOT BE PROMOTED, GREECE COULD NOT BE DISCRIMINATED

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5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

UNPRECEDENTED ENLARGEMENT IS TAKING PLACE. 13 APPLICANTS, EU REFORMING ITSELFPROCESS IS GAINING MOMENTUM. ROAD MAPS ARE GIVENA NUMBER OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE (OTHERS AND OURS)TIME FACTOR IN THE MEDIUM OR LONG TERM PROBABILITY MAY SHIFT FROM NO SOLUTION TO SOLUTION SCENARIOSTURKEY AND ITS READINESS TO JOIN THE EU IS A CRITICAL FACTOR OF CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP

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WITHOUT TURKEY CYPRUS MEMBERSHIP SEEMS LESS LIKELY

FOR THE SOLUTION AND FOR THE MEMBERSHIP TURKEY’S CONSENT IS AN IMPORTANT ELEMENT

MEMBERSHIP WITHOUT TURKEY BUT WITH SOME PRE CONDITIONS (CERTAIN GUARANTEES FOR TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP) IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.