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ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF "PEOPLE PROGRAMS"

UPON RETENTION OF ENLISTED PERSONNELIN THE AIR FORCE

C1 Contract No. F41689-81-C-0063

NFinal ReportAPPENDICES K, L, N

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Resources Research Corporation3833 Texas Ave., Suite 256, Bryan, Texas 77801, 713/8464713

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ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF *PEOPLE PROGRAMS"UPON RETENTION OF ENLISTED PERSONNEL

IN THE AIR FORCE

Contract No. F41689-81---o63

Final Report

APPENDICES K, L, N

June 9, 1982

Submitted toMajor George Petrick

AFMPC/MPYARandolph AFB 78150

Submitted byRRC

3833 Texas Avenue, Suite 256Bryant Texas 77801

Apuyed in pubko MekiI isibudos IUnud

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Volume I

Chapter Page

SI Introduction 1

xI. Supply of Air Force Personnel 3

III. Equilibrium in the Air ForcePersonnel Market 16

IV. An Overview of the Data 32

V. An Econometric Model of Retention 71

Bibliography 166

Appendix AAppendix B

Volume II

Appendix CAppendix DAppendix E

Volume III

Appendix FAppendix GAppendix H

Volume IV

Appendix IAppendix JAppendix KAppendix LAppendix 1

* V. - .- .~

I I

CHAPTER I

Introduction

Currently, a major concern of the U.S. Air Force is the

relatively low reenlistment rates of experienced Air Force

1personnel. For example, the Air Force is faced with manpower

shortages in AFSCs such as Weather Observers, Air Traffic

Controllers, Missile Systems Analysts, and Avionic Communications

Specialists. During the last two decades, the Air Force has

instituted several "people programs" which are designed to

encourage reenlistment of trained first term, second term, and

career airmen. Basically, these programs allow experienced

airmen to have some input in choosing the location or length of

tour of their future assignments. In deciding to what extent

these programs should be continued or expanded, one of several

criteria upon which the Air Force must evaluate the effectiveness

of the "people programs" is t, determine the impact of "People

Programs" on retention rates. Of particular concern are such

programs as Base of Preference (BOP) assignments, Joint

Assignment of Married Couples (Join Spouse), Voluntary Stabilized

Base Assignment Program (VSBAP), and the CONUS Assignment SWAP

Program, among others.

Ji The primary purpose of this project is to provide an

*valuation of the impact of the "people programs" on retention.

n particular, we examine both theoretically and empirically the

Mpact of assignment policy on the retention of first-termers,

econd-termers and career airman for the years 1974 to 1980.

his time series analysis is undertaken at an individual level,

I I k

though some aggregate statistics are considered. At the

individual level a probit specification will be used to carry out

the analysis. This analysis will allow the Air Force to

!determine not only the impact of the "people programso on

reenlistment rates, but also if the cost of implementing these

programs will be offset by the benefits which, to a large extent,

;consist of the savings in training costs of new personnel.

2

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