DAC SKYtalk

Design and

Manufacturingin 2030

Greg YericFellow, Arm Research

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© Arm 20202

$10,000

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Moore’spaper

Sco

pe

of

talk

:

Design and Manufacturing in 2030

© Arm 20203

2030 will be “post Moore’s Law”

Moore’s Law ends: 2029

Yeric, 2015 IEDM(figure from The Economist)

© Arm 20204

5© Arm 2020

Motorola 68030© Arm 20206

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© Arm 20208

2.5 minutes of video = 2 AA batteries

1 billion hourswatched per day

YouTube: 500 hours uploaded every minute

2020 spirit animal

© Arm 20209

There are now >500 hyperscale data centers

Home security camera footage alone will require 100 more near term

(yes, most of the video triggers will be cats)

© Arm 202010

>50% connectionsmachine-to-machine

Huawei to ship 600,000 5G AAUs5G: 1M devices / km2

26B+ IoT connections

© Arm 202011

Data poised to dominate

2015:Fixed Access networks: 167 TWhWireless networks: 50 TWh

https://www.cfr.org/blog/what-5g-means-energy

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y

2018: Data centers 200 TWh

© Arm 202012

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Moore’spaper

Power

Delay

Cost

© Arm 202013

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Moore’spaper

Cost

© Arm 202014

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Moore’spaper

© Arm 202015

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Patterning tool cost

contact

G- and I-line

ArF dry

ArF immersionKrF

EUV: Extreme Ultra-Violet

© Arm 202016

$10,000

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Moore’spaper

contact

KrF

ArF dry

ArF immersion

EUV

High-NA EUV

G- and I-line

See: Moore’s 2nd Law, a.k.a. Rock’s Law© Arm 202017

High-NA EUV: a bargain at $255M

Current (smaller) EUV toolsRequire three Boeing 737’s to ship

© Arm 202018

High-NA EUV: a bargain at $255M

Current (smaller) EUV toolsRequire three Boeing 737’s to ship

© Arm 202019

What could come after high-NA EUV?

EUV information density: more than30 million UHD TV screensper wafer

1011

01001

111101

010101

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What could come after high-NA EUV?

• 6nm EUV 2.0

• e-beam writing

11010

01011

00011

010110

• Nano-imprint

• Self-Assembly

© Arm 202021

DNA self-assembly

Eric Winfree Nadrian Seeman

Paul RothemundBindinglocation

+ =

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3nm transistors

“DNA Origami” tiles

© Arm 202023

~23nm transistors

“DNA Origami” tiles

3-5nm precision placement

Fractal assembly of DNA origami

Lulu Qian

© Arm 202025

Fractal tiling of DNA origami

$255M

GrigoryTikhomirov $20

PhilipPetersen

20 nano-cents

http://qianlab.caltech.edu/FracTileCompiler/© Arm 202026

Fractal tiling of DNA origami

64 cores at 7nm:

NEOVERSE N1

20

mm

20mm2mm x 2mm

There’s plenty of room at the bottom! (1959)

DNA origami doesn’t need to be 2D

DNA bricks with programmable 3D pixels (voxels):

2.5 x 2.5 x 2.7 nmHarvard

Self-assembling dodecahedron (90% yield)TU Munich

© Arm 202028

130mm x 130mm x 130mm

2012: DNN wins ImageNet competition

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y

Alex Krizhevsky

© Arm 202029

2015: ResNet more accurate than people

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y

Human error ~ 4%

ResNet training: 10,000 PF29 hours using 8 Tesla P100 GPUs(300W each, so 70kWh total)

© Arm 202030

With $25M hardware, you can play 4.9 million games in 3 days

5000 TPU v1’s40W each

feeding64 TPU v2’s124W each

40 days

= 216 MWh

© Arm 202031

For the equivalent energy of training AlphaGo:

Cambridge to Lisbon to Rome to Warsaw back to Cambridge

Tesla S P85

(then 146 more loops)

(or power 23 homes for a year)

(or fly for 1000 hours)

© Arm 202032

https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/

This is 7x/year

(and data are actually beyond linear)

If this were to continue,a quantum computerin 2029 would becompeting with2.8e11 PFs-day

280 Yottaflops-day

© Arm 202033

Progress in neuromorphic computingbrain inspired

Intel

Intel

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• Epfl blue brain rpject

The “connectome”

Mouse Brain ~70m neurons

But number of synapses in cerebral cortex 60 trillion

100 - 100,000 inputs per neuron

The Blue Brain Project (BBP/EPFL)

© Arm 202035

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DNA origami doesn’t need us

Energy and Delay scaling

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39

IEDM 2017

© Arm 2020

HS Wong, et al., SISPAD 2009

Koomey’s LawRevision (2016)

© Arm 202040

https://semiengineering.com/whats-after-finfets/

Jacky Huangcoventor.com

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Multi-layer transistor roadmap

© Arm 202042

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Whatever happened to graphene?

Andre Geim Konstantin Novoselov

+ =2010Nobel Prize

2004:

Band Gap 0V: not a good semiconductor

© Arm 202044

51 new 2D semiconductors from one paper

2018

Band Gap

© Arm 202045

57 new quaternary* 2D semiconductors

2018

*quaternary:4 different elements

© Arm 202046

The wave of computational materials

• DFT: Density Functional Theory (Walter Kohn)

• Computational methods in quantum chemistry (John Pople)

1998 Nobel Prize

© Arm 202047

The wave of computational materials

3 days simulation per point

© Arm 202048

The –ic’s of 2030?

Valleytronics

Transmonics

Skyrmionics

Photonics

Spintronics

Twistonics

© Arm 202049

Superconducting electronics (SCE)

Flip-Flop: just 5 JJ’s(up to 750GHz)

1mV

© Arm 202050

https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/supertools

© Arm 202051

Disruptive technology toward 2030

Valleytronics

Transmonics

Skyrmionics

Photonics

Spintronics

Twistonics

© Arm 202052

From Lab to Fab

GAO-14-406SP (2014)

Lab to Fab →

© Arm 202053

“Research is critical to advancing semiconductor innovation in the U.S. American semiconductor design and manufacturing companies invest approximately one-fifth of revenue in R&D, almost $40 billion in 2019, representing the second-highest rate of research investment of any industry.”

© Arm 202054

Example from Arm Research

© Arm 202055

Example from Arm Research

Algorithms

Architecture

Microarchitecture

Materials

Circuits

Process integration

Device

Software

Application

“materials to systems”“atoms to applications”

© Arm 202056

Example from Arm Research: CeRAM100nm

© Arm 202057

DARPA’s Electronics Resurgence Initiative

https://www.darpa.mil/work-with-us/electronics-resurgence-initiative

© Arm 202058

Multi-level cell (MLC) memory

Vg(SET)=0.7V

Vg(SET)=0.75V

Vg(SET)=0.8V

Vg(SET)=0.85V

Vg(SET)=0.9V

Vg(SET)=0.95V

Vg(SET)=1.0V

Typical VREAD

• 300mm wafers• Sub-100nm dots• Low Power• Speed: < 10nS

© Arm 202059

Correlated Electrons

A true quantum phase transition is adiabatic

60K 1.8K

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Nevill Mott1954-1971

New physics, new opportunities

© Arm 202061

NVM MLC example

Lab to Fab →

MLC is all about variation control• Best deposition/cost tradeoff?• PVD, CVD, ALD …• How do you etch it?

© Arm 202062

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Questionsgreg.yeric@arm.com

© Arm 202064