daily commodity roundup as on - systematix...

Date : Friday, December 07, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, December 07, 2018


NIKKEI21524

0.4 -3.24 0.1USDINR

70.95 S&P

INDEX

2700

DJIA25027

-1.59 -1.69 -3.10SENSEX

35312NIFTY

10601

$ INDEX96.78

0.23 -0.40 -0.02

LME ALUMINIUM

1946 LME

LEAD

1986

10890

0.25 -0.15 0.28

LME

COPPER

6150 LME

ZINC

2606

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1240.00SILVER $

USDJPY112.751

0.03 -0.06 0.03EURUSD

1.1380GBPUSD

1.27723

LME

NICKEL

14.48CRUDE $

51.49

0.22 0.33 -2.65

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#

RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30915-31383.

Fed's Powell: Financial stability is now more integral for monetary policy

Fed Vice Chair Clarida the central bank should continue to gradually raise interest rates, but it was “especially important” to monitor economic data.

The U.S. Mint sold 8,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in November, down 67.3 percent from the previous month, according to the latest data.

Gold steadied as the dollar declined amid expectations of a slowdown in the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes.

Gold steadied as the dollar declined amid expectations of a slowdown in

the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes, with investors seeking refuge in the

bullion from a sell-off in global stocks. The dollar fell about 0.5 percent as

U.S. Treasury yields tumbled and traders scaled back expectations on the

number of hikes the Fed would implement amid weakening economic data

and market volatility. The dollar index inched lower, weighed down by

worries about lower U.S. long-term Treasury yields and expectations of a

fewer rate hikes by the U.S. central bank. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank

president Raphael Bostic on Thursday said he felt the Fed should continue

raising rates towards a "neutral" level, noting that despite recent market

volatility and increasing uncertainty, he did not see "any indications of a

material weakening in the macroeconomic data at the moment." The

Federal Reserve is “helping community banks remain competitive” and

continue to play a central role in rural communities, in part by reducing

regulations for smaller banks, Fed Governor Randal Quarles told the

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He did not comment on

the economic outlook or monetary policy in his prepared remarks, which

focused on banks in the Western United States. Gold-backed exchange-

traded funds (ETFs) registered inflows in all the world's major regions in

November, as volatile stock markets fuelled flight-to-safety buying, the

World Gold Council said on Thursday. Technically market is under short

covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.57% to

settled at 13073 while prices up 14 rupees, now Gold is getting support at

31002 and below same could see a test of 30915 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 31236, a move above could see prices testing

31383.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

31150

SUPPORT 3

31470 31383 31236 31002 30915 30768

31296 31062 31089 0.05 13073

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Gold Feb 2019

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36809-37721.

Fed's Beige Book: wages rising broadly in addition to nonwage benefits/compensation

Fed policymakers will gather at a Dec. 18-19 meeting, at which the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates.

The market now awaits Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November, which is expected to show unemployment remains at 3.7 percent.

Silver dropped tracking weakness in crude oil and base metals prices despite an inversion in part of the US yield curve raised a red flag for a potential recession.

Silver on MCX settled down -0.56% at 37218 tracking weakness in crude

oil and base metals prices despite dollar has been under pressure as an

inversion in part of the US yield curve raised a red flag for a potential

recession. The U.S. economy is "performing very well overall," Federal

Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, capping a week of widespread

market nervousness with a reminder that the U.S. economy continues to

expand. Fed policymakers are still widely expected to raise interest rates

again at their December 18-19 meeting, but the market focus is on how

many rate hikes will follow in 2019. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

on Thursday said the central bank may not have to go much further with

interest rates to achieve a proper balance between slowing and

overheating. The two-year/10-year spread was at its flattest this week in

more than a decade amid a sharp fall in long-term rates. A flatter curve is

seen as an indicator of a slowing economy. The upcoming Federal

Reserve policy decision is also expected to be in focus, as the Dec. 18-19

meeting looms just over the horizon. The greenback came under pressure

last week when the market took comments from Fed chairman Jerome

Powell as signalling a slower pace of rate hikes. Markets still expect the

Fed to move forward with a quarter-point hike this month but have

interpreted cautious remarks from policymakers to mean that further

tightening in 2019 will have to be reevaluated on economic and inflation

data. Technically now Silver is getting support at 37013 and below same

could see a test of 36809 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

37469, a move above could see prices testing 37721.


37421 37517

37925 37721 37469 37013 36809 36557

37061 37218 -0.56 23766

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Silver Mar 2019

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3423-3891.

Oil producers have been hit by a 30-percent plunge in crude prices since October as supply surges just as the demand outlook weakens amid a global economic slowdown.

Oil output from the OPEC, Russia and the United States - has increased by 3.3 million bpd since the end of 2017, to 56.38 million bpd.

Crude stockpiles in the United States plunged last week for the first time in 11 weeks, the EIA said, announcing a drawdown of 7.3 million barrels.

Crude oil fell after OPEC and allied exporting countries ended a meeting without announcing a decision to cut crude output, and prepared to debate the matter the next day.

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -4.81% at 3619 after OPEC and allied

exporting countries ended a meeting without announcing a decision to cut

crude output, and prepared to debate the matter the next day. Oil

producers have been hit by a 30-percent plunge in crude prices since

October as supply surges just as the demand outlook weakens amid a

global economic slowdown. Oil output from the world's biggest producers -

OPEC, Russia and the United States - has increased by 3.3 million bpd

since the end of 2017, to 56.38 million bpd, meeting almost 60 percent of

global consumption. That increase alone is equivalent to the output of

major OPEC producer the United Arab Emirates. The surge is largely down

to soaring U.S. crude oil production, which has jumped by 2.5 million bpd

since early 2016 to a record 11.7 million bpd, making the United States

the world's biggest oil producer. Crude stockpiles in the United States

plunged last week for the first time in 11 weeks, the Energy Information

Administration (EIA) said, announcing a drawdown of 7.3 million barrels

in the week to Nov. 30, compared with analysts’ expectations for a

decrease of just 942,000 barrels. More staggering than the weekly drop in

crude stockpiles was EIA data showing the United States shipped 3.2

million barrels per day of oil last week, the highest ever for a country that

ended its self-imposed four-decade old oil exports embargo just two years

ago, at the height of the first shale crude glut of 2014-2017. Technically

market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open

interest by 30.17% to settled at 19599 while prices down -183 rupees,

now Crudeoil is getting support at 3521 and below same could see a test

of 3423 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3755, a move

above could see prices testing 3891.


3760 3793

3989 3891 3755 3521 3423 3287

3559 3619 -4.81 19599

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Crudeoil Dec 2018

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Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 424.8-438.6.

China and US agreed to a truce in their months-long trade war, with U.S. President Donald Trump agreeing to refrain from raising tariffs on Jan. 1.

But he has also warned that the U.S. will revert to tariffs if the two sides cannot resolve their differences before the stipulated 90 days.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 124950mt that is down by -3250mt.


Copper prices dropped as worries over weak demand caused by Sino-U.S. trade tensions persisted.

Copper on MCX settled down -1.27% at 431.65 but prices sharply gained

from the day's low as reports that the U.S. Federal Reserve could pause

from raising interest rates helped the metal recover from its steepest

slide in five weeks in the prior session. The U.S.-China trade dispute

remains the largest downside risk for the global and Chinese economic

outlook. While demand from top copper consumer China is weaker this

month, as market sentiment for next year remains positive as China

heads into the 70th year since its founding. Last night most base metals

ended in negative territory whereby LME nickel slumped over 3%,

aluminium dropped 1.6%, copper slid some 1% and zinc lost 0.4% while

lead gained 0.4%. The US dollar weakened against major peers on

Thursday as US Treasury yields tumbled and traders scaled back

expectations on the number of rate hikes the Fed would implement amid

weakening economic data and heightened market volatility. Data showed

private employers hired fewer workers than expected in November,

pointing to a moderation in the pace of job growth. Also the number of

Americans filing applications for jobless benefits fell less than expected

last week while the four-week moving average of claims rose to its

highest level since April, suggesting some loss of momentum in the labor

market. Now a day ahead Economic data slated for release today include

China’s November foreign exchange reserves, the eurozone’s third-

quarter GDP growth and US November nonfarm payrolls report, the

University of Michigan’s December consumer confidence index and

October wholesale inventories. Technically market is getting support at

428.3 and below same could see a test of 424.8 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 435.2, a move above could see prices testing

438.6.


433.85

SUPPORT 3

442.1 438.6 435.2 428.3 424.8 421.4

435.10 428.20 431.65 -1.27 13737

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Copper Feb 2019

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Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 183.6-190.

China's factory activity grew slightly in November, though new export orders extended their decline in a further blow to the sector already hurt by the Sino-U.S. trade frictions.

The premium for cash LME zinc over the three-month price soared to $113 a tonne, the highest since 1997.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 111225mt that is up by 525mt.


MCX Zinc Dec 2018

Zinc dropped as worries over weak demand caused by Sino-U.S. trade tensions persisted.

Zinc on MCX settled down -0.82% at 187.15 on long liquidation while

prices recovered some earlier losses tracking bounce from LME Zinc which

closed at $2,610/mt as support seen from low inventories sustains,

weakening consumption by year-end could limit upside room for zinc

prices. Last night most base metals ended in negative territory whereby

LME nickel slumped over 3%, aluminium dropped 1.6%, copper slid some

1% and zinc lost 0.4% while lead gained 0.4%. The US dollar weakened

against major peers on Thursday as US Treasury yields tumbled and

traders scaled back expectations on the number of rate hikes the Federal

Reserve would implement amid weakening economic data and heightened

market volatility. The dollar has been under pressure this week as an

inversion in part of the US yield curve raised a red flag for a potential

recession. While Fed policymakers are still widely expected to raise

interest rates again at their December 18-19 meeting, but the market

focus is on how many rate hikes will follow in 2019. Separately, data

showed private employers hired fewer workers than expected in

November, pointing to a moderation in the pace of job growth. Now a day

ahead Economic data slated for release today include China’s November

foreign exchange reserves, the eurozone’s third-quarter GDP growth and

US November nonfarm payrolls report, the University of Michigan’s

December consumer confidence index and October wholesale inventories.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop

in open interest by -19.07% to settled at 2711 while prices down -1.55

rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 185.5 and below same could see a

test of 183.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.7, a

move above could see prices testing 190.


187.6

SUPPORT 3

191.9 190.0 188.7 185.5 183.6 182.3

188.2 185.0 187.2 -0.82 2711

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 745.9-799.9.

The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) is projecting a decline in nickel production of 10-20% in 2019

Indonesia has granted permission for two commodity companies in the country to restart exports of nickel ore as they have made progress on smelter projects.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 210876mt that is down by -408mt.


MCX Nickel Dec 2018

Nickel dropped as pressure after the arrest of a top Chinese executive in Canada dampened hopes for a resolution to the U.S.-China trade conflict.

Nickel on MCX settled down -3.22% at 767.60 tracking other metals

prices which came under pressure in line with broad market weakness in

equities, bond yields and increased trade tensions between the United

States and China seem to be weighing on sentiment. The base metals

prices have lost the shine they garnered in the aftermath of the positive

trade developments seen at this past weekend’s G20 meeting, but most

are holding up in or near recent high ground – the exception being copper

that has given back all of its post-G20 gains. We still feel that the trade

truce offers an opportunity for stronger growth but it looks as though the

market is waiting for evidence of this before it restocks. Last night most

base metals ended in negative territory whereby LME nickel slumped over

3%, aluminium dropped 1.6%, copper slid some 1% and zinc lost 0.4%

while lead gained 0.4%. The US dollar weakened against major peers on

Thursday as US Treasury yields tumbled and traders scaled back

expectations on the number of rate hikes the Federal Reserve would

implement amid weakening economic data and heightened market

volatility. Separately, data showed private employers hired fewer workers

than expected in November, pointing to a moderation in the pace of job

growth. Now a day ahead Economic data slated for release today include

China’s November foreign exchange reserves, the eurozone’s third-

quarter GDP growth and US November nonfarm payrolls report, the

University of Michigan’s December consumer confidence index and

October wholesale inventories. Technically market is getting support at

756.8 and below same could see a test of 745.9 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 783.8, a move above could see prices testing

799.9.


785.7

SUPPORT 3

810.8 799.9 783.8 756.8 745.9 729.8

789 762 767.6 -3.22 15620

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6223-6223.

However, good physical domestic and exports to China and Bangladesh limited the downside.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 9 tonnes to 2098 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19148 rupee per 100 kg.


NCDEX Jeera Jan 2019

Jeera prices dropped on expectation of improving acreage on reports of providing water in canal for irrigation for rabi crop.

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -1.03% at 18810 on expectation that

the area may increase on assure irrigation to Gujarat farmers. However,

good physical domestic and exports to China and Bangladesh limited the

downside. As per data release by State Agriculture Department of

Gujarat, area under cumin in the state is pegged at 122,000 ha (vs

44,200 ha last week) as on 26-Nov, down 36% on year. Last year area

was 191,400 ha during the same time. During monsoon season, Jeera

producing districts of Gujarat received scanty rains, but Gujarat govt.

announced assured irrigation for rabi crops. According to Commerce

Ministry data, exports of jeera is down, 35% on year in September at

9,855 tonnes compared to 15,167 tonnes last year. However, jeera

exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Aug) has crossed 1 lakh tonnes, up 54.8%

compared to exports last year. Jeera sowing in Gujarat fell to 44,200

hectares from 130,100 hectares a year ago due to lack of water, state

government data showed. Sowing is likely to pick up in the coming

weeks; however, there are doubts of any increase in acreage due to dry

weather. Sowing is likely to pick up in the coming weeks; however, there

are doubts of any increase in acreage due to dry weather. Moreover,

concern that standing cumin crops might get affected amid scanty

rainfalls also supported upward trend in prices. In Unjha, a key spot

market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -149.9 Rupees to end at

19253.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at

18690 and below same could see a test of 18575 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 18970, a move above could see prices testing

19135.


18890

SUPPORT 3

19200 19045 18860 18520 18365 18180

18890 18550 18670 -0.74 2943

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6526-6670.

Turmeric output this year is expected to be higher in the states of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 89 tonnes to 3170 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7037.5 Rupees gained 1.15 Rupees.


NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2019

Turmeric dropped due to lower exports and anticipation of good crop next season.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.96% at 6580 due to lower exports

and anticipation of good crop next season. Pressure also seen amid

increased acreage of turmeric in Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra

and slip in exports. According to farmers and traders this year production

in Maharashtra can be less than last year. Deficit rainfall in Maharashtra

and Karnataka affected Turmeric standing crop. Lower rainfall reported in

Maharashtra Marathwada turmeric growing regions like Hingoli, Sangli,

Nanded, Basmath affect Turmeric standing crop. Turmeric output this

year is expected to be higher in the states of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and

Maharashtra. According to the Department of Horticulture and Plantation

Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in Erode may jump nearly 80%

on year to 5,300 hectare in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) because of very good

rainfall and availability of other water sources. In Telangana, turmeric

acreage rose to 47,790 hectare compared to 44,956 hectare a year ago,

state government data showed. As per data released by Commerce

Ministry, turmeric exports during the month of Sep 2018, up 16.5% on

year to 9,064 tonnes. Turmeric exports in 2018/19 (Apr-Sep) is up

10.6% at 65,547 tonnes compared to 59,285 last year for the same time.

During the November, arrivals of turmeric have been higher at 12,067 t

(Vs 9,547 t) compared last year, as per data. In Andhra Pradesh farmers

planted turmeric over an area 18,000 hectares up from 14,000 hectares a

year ago. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at

7037.5 Rupees gained 1.15 Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting

support at 6554 and below same could see a test of 6526 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 6626, a move above could see

prices testing 6670.


6642

SUPPORT 3

6698 6670 6626 6554 6526 6482

6642 6570 6580 -0.96 13205

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1579.3-1643.3.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1797.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-4.60/-.

According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons.

However, there could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.


MCX Menthaoil Dec 2018

Menthaoil settled down as spot markets are witnessing low demand amid adequate supply which weighed on prices.

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.16% at 1613.8 as spot markets are

witnessing low demand amid adequate supply which weighed on prices.

Low demand outlook in mentha oil in domestic as well as global market

due to expectation of recovery in Indian Rupee against the U.S dollar.

Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is

moving upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal

stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki

supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to

preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-

45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be

chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather

condition. Mandi Department, which assumes Mentha as an agricultural

product and receives the mandatory duty of one and a half percent, the

GST of the same commerce tax department, Mentha crop, is not

considered as agricultural product and 15 percent GST is charged. Due to

this double tax, the price of mentha product increases, whereas synthetic

mentha is much cheaper, so many companies making mentha products

have started using synthetic mentha.S Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed

at 1797.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-4.60/-.Technically

market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open

interest by 4.39% to settled at 1093 while prices down -2.6 rupees, now

Menthaoil is getting support at 1596.6 and below same could see a test of

1579.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1628.6, a move

above could see prices testing 1643.3.


1619.00

SUPPORT 3

1660.6 1643.3 1628.6 1596.6 1579.3 1564.6

1626.00 1594.00 1613.80 -0.16 1093

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -3250 124950

ALUMINIUM -1475 1043775

NICKEL -408 210876

LEAD -300 104550

ZINC 525 111225

8:30pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.1 97.5


7:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 200K 250K

7:00pm USD Unemployment Rate 0.037 0.037

3:30pm EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.002 0.002

7:00pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.003 0.002

2:30pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.002 -0.008

3:30pm EUR Final Employment Change q/q 0.002 0.002

1:15pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.008 -0.018

1:15pm EUR French Trade Balance -6.0B -5.7B

Long Liquidation

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

12:30pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.003 0.002

TREND Fresh Buying Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Fresh Selling

723

Cng in OI 11.06 -3.64 11.73 9.98 1.97 21.84 -4.61 8.48 -1.43

SUPPORT

4502 21420 18180 4245 6482 3962 480.0 3274

729

4533 21590 18365 4290 6526 3979 484.0 3297 726

4572 21690 18520 4329 6554 3990 488.2 3310

492.2 3333 732

741

4673 22130 19045 4458 6670 4035 500.4 3369 738

504.6 3382

496.4 3346 735

P. POINT 4603 21860 18705 4374 6598 4007

4642 21960 18860 4413 6626 4018

RESISTANCE

4712 22230 19200 4497 6698 4046

4611 21790 18670 4368 6580 4000 492.5 3324

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX Chana Jan

2019

NCDEX Cotton Dec

2018

NCDEX Jeera Jan

2019

NCDEX Guarseed10

Jan 2019

NCDEX Turmeric

Apr 2019

NCDEX Rmseed Jan

2019MCX CPO Dec 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Jan 2019

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Jan 2019

730.05CLOSE

-3250

-1475

-408-300

525

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

Euro zone manufacturing activity expanded at its weakest rate in over two years in November as new orders contracted for a second month, further evidence the bloc’s

economic growth is past its peak, a survey showed. Policymakers at the European Central Bank are due to draw a line under their 2.6 trillion euro asset purchase program

at the end of the year and the survey will likely make disappointing reading. IHS Markit’s November final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell for a third month,

coming in at 51.8 from October’s 52.0, although above a flash reading of 51.5 and still exceeding the 50 level separating growth from contraction. But that was its lowest

level since August 2016 and an index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI that is seen as a good guide to economic health, stumbled to 50.7 from 51.3 -

its lowest since mid-2013. The preliminary estimate was 50.4. With new orders falling for a second month, factory managers don’t see any pick up soon and optimism

remained low. The future output index only nudged up to 56.3 from a near six-year low of 56.1 in October. The darker outlook is linked to a U.S.-led trade war with China,

which economists say is damaging to global growth, and intensifying political uncertainty in the currency bloc, IHS Markit said.

Asia’s economic prospects looked gloomy as factory activity and export orders weakened across the region in November with analysts expecting no quick rebound amid

simmering global trade frictions. In a sign corporate sentiment was taking a hit from worries over protectionism, manufacturers’ activity slipped in November in countries

as varied as Indonesia, Taiwan and South Korea the IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index showed. While factory activity rose slightly in China, new export orders

extended their decline in a further blow to a sector already hurt by Sino-U.S. trade frictions. The IHS Markit survey results came on the heels of data out earlier on

Monday showing a sharp slowdown in Japan’s capital expenditure, which had been considered a key driver of the export-reliant economy. China’s manufacturing sector

activity grew slightly in November but new export orders shrank, reflecting weakening global demand, a private survey showed. The downbeat readings backed Friday’s

official PMI survey for November showing growth in China’s vast factory sector sliding to its lowest in more than two years. A revised survey showed Japan’s

manufacturing activity expanded in November at the slowest pace in more than a year as growth in new orders slowed, a worrying sign that economic expansion may be

muted in the fourth quarter.

India’s soymeal exports slumped 40% on year to around 60,000 tn in October, an official with The Soybean Processors’ Association of India said. “Soymeal exports in

October are around 60,000 tn while they were recorded over 100,000 tn during same period last year. Export demand for soymeal was bleak in October but is seen robust

in Nov-Dec,” the official said, adding that exports declined sharply in October due to waning purchases from major buyers. Demand was subdued in October also as

stockists and millers were not clear about the spot price of soybean following Flat Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana this season introduced in Madhya Pradesh, the largest

soybean producer in the country. Under the Flat Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana that was rolled out from Oct 20, the state government is paying farmers 500 rupees per 100

kg for soybean, irrespective of the price they sell it at in the open market. Last year, soybean prices had crashed in spot markets when the state government

implemented the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana, under which it had agreed to compensate farmers the difference between modal price and the minimum support price. This

time around, prices have been inching up despite a larger crop, as the state government has tweaked the compensation scheme scheme, and also as carryover stocks

from last season low. Carryover stocks for the season started Oct 1 were estimated at 200,000 tn, sharply lower than 1.3 mln tn a year ago due to a smaller crop in 2017-

18 (Jul-Jun), the official said. According to trade estimates, deals have been signed for export of 500,000-600,000 tn of soymeal during Oct-Dec compared with actual

export of 447,920 tn in the year ago period.



The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is

made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and one should exercise due caution while acting on it. Descriptions of any commodities mentioned herein are not

complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any commodities/commodity derivatives. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other information contained in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without

notice.

This report is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability

or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject to Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited (SCSPL) or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such

country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or

Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party

a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of

the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website

SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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