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Page 1: Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix Groupreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIX... · Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, December 05, 2018. Date : Wednesday,

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Page 2: Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix Groupreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIX... · Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, December 05, 2018. Date : Wednesday,

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 2

NIKKEI21833

0.08 1.09 -0.92USDINR

70.69 S&P

INDEX

2790

DJIA25826

-0.29 -0.13 1.13SENSEX

36134NIFTY

10870

$ INDEX97.08

0.03 0.05 0.10

LME ALUMINIUM

1971 LME

LEAD

1994

11085

0.3 -0.04 -0.4

LME

COPPER

6187 LME

ZINC

2583

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1234.91SILVER $

USDJPY112.946

-0.09 -0.08 0.16EURUSD

1.1330GBPUSD

1.2704

LME

NICKEL

14.45CRUDE $

53.25

-0.31 -0.37 0.57

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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 3

Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30829-31273.

Federal Reserve's Clarida comments inflation risks running too low as expectations are "at the lower end of the range consistent with price stability"

Economic strength shown through declines in unemployment and financial hardship: Fed's Powell

Productivity picked up but not clear if trend sustained: Fed's Powell

Gold climbed as the dollar sagged after the United States and China agreed on a 90-day pause to fresh trade tariffs.

Gold on MCX settled up 0.7% at 31106 as the dollar sagged after the

United States and China agreed on a 90-day pause to fresh trade tariffs.

The dollar weakened against its major peers, pressured by a thaw in

trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, making gold cheaper for

holders of other currencies. Global trade tensions over the past few

months have seen investors opt for the safety of the U.S. currency rather

than bullion, a traditional safe haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump

and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping promised to halt the introduction

of new tariffs for 90 days, according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The dollar also lost its upward momentum in recent days on dovish

signals from the Federal Reserve, which has indicated a possible pause in

interest rate hikes after a widely-expected December increase. The Perth

Mint's sales of gold products surged by nearly 75 percent in November

from the previous month, while silver sales fell, the mint said. Sales of

gold coins and minted bars climbed to 64,308 ounces in November, its

highest since January 2017. Sales nearly tripled compared with the same

month last year, the mint said in a blog post. Silver sales in November

were down 19 percent month-on-month at 876,446 ounces. From a year

earlier, sales rose 61 percent. The Perth Mint refines more than 90

percent of newly mined gold in Australia, the world's second-largest gold

producer after China. Technically market is under fresh buying as market

has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.6% to settled at 13222, now

Gold is getting support at 30967 and below same could see a test of

30829 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31189, a move

above could see prices testing 31273.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

30936

SUPPORT 3

31411 31273 31189 30967 30829 30745

31135 30913 31106 0.70 13222

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Gold Feb 2019

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 4

Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36922-37964.

Wage gains, consumer confidence support robust spending: Fed's Powell

U.S. President Trump threatened to place “major tariffs” on Chinese goods imported into US if his administration is unable to reach an effective trade deal with Beijing.

Investors also kept a close eye on signals on the future path of interest rates next year by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the central bank widely expected to raise rates.

Silver prices gained as the dollar declined on easing U.S.-China trade worries.

Silver on MCX settled up 1.01% at 37481 as the dollar declined on easing

U.S.-China trade worries. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to

place “major tariffs” on Chinese goods imported into the United States if

his administration is unable to reach an effective trade deal with Beijing.

But China said Beijing and Washington will push forward with trade

negotiations in the next 90 days and it is confident that an agreement

can be implemented. The dollar index fell after U.S. President Donald

Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping promised to halt the

introduction of new tariffs for 90 days, according to Chinese Foreign

Minister Wang Yi. The dollar also lost its upward momentum in recent

days on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has indicated a

possible pause in interest rate hikes after a widely-expected December

increase. US manufacturing activity picked up in November, according to

data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), though a gauge of

prices paid tumbled from a month earlier. ISM's US manufacturing index

rose to 59.3 in November from 57.7 in October, topping expectations for

a reading of 57.6. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

Growth in Germany's manufacturing sector slowed to its lowest in two

and a half years in November as new orders contracted at the fastest rate

in four years. Markit's PMI for manufacturing, which accounts for about a

fifth of the economy, fell to 51.8, from 52.2 in October. Technically

market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open

interest by -2.16% to settled at 22570, now Silver is getting support at

37201 and below same could see a test of 36922 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 37722, a move above could see prices testing

37964.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

37170 37685

38243 37964 37722 37201 36922 36680

37164 37481 1.01 22570

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Silver Mar 2019

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 5

Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3647-3927.

Crude climbed after Washington and Beijing agreed a truce in their trade disputes and said they would negotiate for 90 days before taking any further action.

The Middle East-dominated OPEC will on Dec. 6 meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, to agree a joint output policy. 

OPEC's biggest problem is surging production in the United States, where output has grown by around 2 million bpd in a year to more than 11.5 million bpd.

Crude oil prices pared gains as fears flared that demand would stall due to a trade war, and as Russia remained a stumbling block to a deal to cut global supply.

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 1.1% at 3768 but prices pared gains as fears

flared that demand would stall due to a trade war between the U.S. and

China, and as Russia remained a stumbling block to a deal to cut global

crude supply. ahead of expected output cuts by producer cartel OPEC and

a mandated reduction in Canadian supply. Crude prices climbed after U.S.

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at a

meeting of the Group of 20 industrialised nations (G20) to pause an

escalating trade dispute. The Middle East-dominated Organization of the

Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet on Thursday in Vienna to agree

future output and will discuss strategy with other producers outside

OPEC, including Russia. The group is widely expected to announce

production cuts of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), a move

forced by rapidly rising shale output in the United States and slower

growth in global oil demand. Helping OPEC in its efforts to rein in

emerging oversupply was an order on Sunday by the Canadian province

of Alberta for producers to scale back output by 325,000 bpd until excess

crude in storage is reduced. OPEC's biggest problem is surging production

in the United States where output, mostly from its southern shale fields,

has grown by around 2 million bpd in a year to more than 11.5 million

bpd. Barclays bank pointed out in a note to clients that oil production in

the state of Texas alone "reached 4.69 million bpd in September,

compared with Iraqi output of 4.66 million by our estimates". Technically

now Crudeoil is getting support at 3707 and below same could see a test

of 3647 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3847, a move

above could see prices testing 3927.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

3777 3867

3987 3927 3847 3707 3647 3567

3727 3768 1.10 15384

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Crudeoil Dec 2018

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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 426.4-448.

Prices, weighed down by the trade dispute this year, had bounced after Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off on imposing further tariffs for 90 days.

Premiums for imports of copper into China sank to an 18-month low in a sign that demand for physical metal is waning after a buying spree.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 130175mt that is down by -4025mt.

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 6

Copper dropped as U.S.-China trade tensions resurfaced, raising concerns over economic growth and demand.

Copper on MCX settled down -1.61% at 434.50 eased on Tuesday as

markets awaited remedial action by the United States and China after the

two countries’ weekend agreement on a 90-day ceasefire in their

damaging trade dispute. Other metals, however, clung on to the previous

session’s gains, powered by a weaker dollar. At the G20 summit this

weekend, Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off from further tariffs

for 90 days, pausing a dispute that had dragged down metals and equity

markets. Markets remain sceptical, however, that full resolution will be

achieved soon. Yesterday US President Donald Trump held out the

possibility of an extension of the 90-day trade truce but made clear he

would revert to tariffs if the two sides could not resolve their differences.

The US expects China to cut tariffs on U.S. car imports and end

intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers as the

countries move towards a broader trade deal, a White House official said

on Monday. Last night the US dollar fell broadly overnight as US Treasury

yields slipped, feeding fears that the Federal Reserve could pause in its

rate-hike cycle, while an inversion in part of the yield curve was taken as

a red flag for a potential recession. Earlier in the session, the US dollar

index recovered to 97 following hawkish comment from New York Fed

President John Williams, who argued that further gradual rate hikes were

appropriate given the underlying economic strength of the US. A day

ahead Economic data slated for release today include China’s Caixin

services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for November and the

eurozone’s retail sales for October. Technically market is getting support

at 430.5 and below same could see a test of 426.4 level, And resistance

is now likely to be seen at 441.3, a move above could see prices testing

448.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

441.60

SUPPORT 3

452.1 448.0 441.3 430.5 426.4 419.7

443.90 433.15 434.50 -1.61 12885

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Copper Feb 2019

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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 182.2-190.4.

The cash zinc premium over three-month metal, at $93, had returned to near 10-year highs after easing, suggesting shortages of immediately available metal.

Speculative investors were beginning to ramp up bets on lower prices, with their net short expanding to 3 percent of open contracts.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 111750mt that is down by -825mt.

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 7

MCX Zinc Dec 2018

Zinc prices rose as falling stockpiles and rising premiums for nearby metal highlighted a short-term supply squeeze, halting a slide to 10-week lows.

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.46% at 186.20 on short covering while prices

dropped from the day's high as the US dollar rebounded, and LME zinc

came off from a high of $2,610/mt and closed at $2,583.5/mt overnight.

Low LME inventories and wide LME zinc cash/three-month price

backwardation helped limit the losses in LME zinc. While current low

inventories limit downside room for the contract, weaker consumption

and an expected rise in long-term inventories will limit any upside room.

LME inventories of zinc touched their lowest since February 2008 at

111,750 tonnes, having halved since mid-August. The plunging stocks

pushed the premium for cash LME zinc over the three-month price to

more than $100 a tonne, close to a 20-year high touched on Friday. Last

night the US dollar fell broadly overnight as US Treasury yields slipped,

feeding fears that the Federal Reserve could pause in its rate-hike cycle,

while an inversion in part of the yield curve was taken as a red flag for a

potential recession. Earlier in the session, the US dollar index recovered

to 97 following hawkish comment from New York Fed President John

Williams, who argued that further gradual rate hikes were appropriate

given the underlying economic strength of the US. A day ahead Economic

data slated for release today include China’s Caixin services PMI for

November and the eurozone’s retail sales for October. Testimony from US

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Congress's Joint Economic Committee

about the economic outlook scheduled for Wednesday was postponed for

a national day of mourning following the death of former President

George H.W. Bush. Technically market is under short covering and

getting support at 184.2 and below same could see a test of 182.2 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.3, a move above could see

prices testing 190.4.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

184.6

SUPPORT 3

192.4 190.4 188.3 184.2 182.2 180.1

188.5 184.4 186.2 0.46 2534

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 767.1-813.9.

A survey showed China's factory activity grew slightly in November, while new export orders extended their decline.

US manufacturing activity picked up in November, according to ISM data, though a gauge of prices paid tumbled from a month earlier.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 212796mt that is down by -48mt.

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 8

MCX Nickel Dec 2018

Nickel eased as markets awaited remedial action by the US and China after the two countries’ weekend agreement on a 90-day ceasefire in their damaging trade dispute.

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.48% at 786 dropped on fresh selling

tracking LME nickel prices which relinquished earlier gains and closed at

$11,130/mt overnight as the US dollar climbed as doubts over China's

demand growth and whether the country will be able to resolve its trade

row with the United States within a 90-day timeframe came into focus.

Metals prices, weighed down by the trade dispute this year, had bounced

on Monday after Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off on imposing

further tariffs for 90 days. However, it has since emerged that none of the

commitments U.S. officials said had been given by China, including

reducing its 40 percent tariffs on autos, were agreed to in writing and

specifics have yet to be ironed out. Last night the US dollar fell broadly

overnight as US Treasury yields slipped, feeding fears that the Federal

Reserve could pause in its rate-hike cycle, while an inversion in part of

the yield curve was taken as a red flag for a potential recession. Earlier in

the session, the US dollar index recovered to 97 following hawkish

comment from New York Fed President John Williams, who argued that

further gradual rate hikes were appropriate given the underlying

economic strength of the US. A day ahead Economic data slated for

release today include China’s Caixin services purchasing managers’ index

(PMI) for November and the eurozone’s retail sales for October.

Testimony from US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Congress's Joint

Economic Committee about the economic outlook scheduled for

Wednesday was postponed for a national day of mourning following the

death of former President George H.W. Bush. Technically market is

getting support at 776.6 and below same could see a test of 767.1 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 800, a move above could see

prices testing 813.9.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

792

SUPPORT 3

823.4 813.9 800.0 776.6 767.1 753.2

804.4 781 786 -0.48 14297

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6335-6335.

Jeera supply in the spot market is low while rains were patchy in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan resulted in lower production estimates.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 27 tonnes to 2095 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19403 rupee per 100 kg.

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 9

NCDEX Jeera Jan 2019

Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained tracking firmness in spot demand due to deficient monsoon, and lower production estimates.

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.64% at 18990 tracking firmness in spot

demand amid deficient rainfall in key producing region of Gujarat like

Saurashtra and Kutch may lower the acreage. According to the initial

trade estimate, there may not be any increase in the sowing area of jeera

because of dry weather. However, if the producing states receive good

irrigation facilities through dams then the sowing area could see an

increase. Meanwhile, jeera arrivals in Unjha mandi, Gujarat were 4,061

bags (20 Kg/bag), compared to 3,102 bags. Jeera sowing in Gujarat fell

to 44,200 hectares from 130,100 hectares a year ago due to lack of

water, state government data showed. Sowing is likely to pickup in the

coming weeks. However, there are doubts of any increase in acreage due

to dry weather. Moreover, concern that standing cumin crops might get

affected amid scanty rainfalls also supported upward trend in prices.

Deficient rainfall in key producing region of Gujarat like Saurashtra and

Kutch may lower the acreage. According to the initial trade estimate,

there may not be any increase in the sowing area of jeera because of dry

weather. According to the market estimates, India has already exported

around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so far this year and there is a possibility

of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of this fiscal year. In

Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 32.65 Rupees to

end at 19324.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting

support at 18930 and below same could see a test of 18875 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 19050, a move above could see

prices testing 19115.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

19050

SUPPORT 3

20025 19770 19385 18745 18490 18105

19515 18875 19005 0.08 2136

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6576-6896.

According to farmers and traders this year production in Maharashtra can be less than last year.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 119 tonnes to 3170 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7069.05 Rupees gained 8.65 Rupees.

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 10

NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2019

Turmeric gained on expectation of improving upcountry demand in coming weeks.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.42% at 6728 on expectation of

improving upcountry demand in coming weeks. However, upside seen

limited amid increased acreage of turmeric in Tamilnadu, Karnataka and

Maharashtra and slip in exports. According to farmers and traders this

year production in Maharashtra can be less than last year. Deficit rainfall

in Maharashtra and Karnataka affected Turmeric standing crop. Lower

rainfall reported in Maharashtra Marathwada turmeric growing regions like

Hingoli, Sangli, Nanded, Basmath affect Turmeric standing crop. Turmeric

output this year is expected to be higher in the states of Tamilnadu,

Karnataka and Maharashtra. According to the Department of Horticulture

and Plantation Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in Erode may

jump nearly 80% on year to 5,300 hectare in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) because

of very good rainfall and availability of other water sources. In

Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare compared to 44,956

hectare a year ago, state government data showed. In Andhra Pradesh

farmers planted turmeric over an area 18,000 hectares up from 14,000

hectares a year ago. Turmeric exports during the month of September

were up 16.5% to 9,064 tons compared to 7,783 tons in the

corresponding period a year ago, according to Ministry of Commerce data.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7069.05

Rupees gained 8.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as

market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.64% to settled at 13010

while prices up 28 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6652 and

below same could see a test of 6576 level, And resistance is now likely to

be seen at 6812, a move above could see prices testing 6896.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

6680

SUPPORT 3

6972 6896 6812 6652 6576 6492

6820 6660 6728 0.42 13010

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2

Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1512.4-1696.2.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1802.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.43.40/-.

Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.

According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons.

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 11

MCX Menthaoil Dec 2018

Menthaoil settled up due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 1.72% at 1610.9 due to bullish demand

outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also

witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper

crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving

upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at

400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies

rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary

estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton

against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of

crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.

Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices

are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil

spot at Sambhal closed at 1802.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by

Rs.43.40/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -7.95% to settled at 1077 while prices

up 27.3 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1561.7 and below

same could see a test of 1512.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 1653.6, a move above could see prices testing 1696.2.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

1555.00

SUPPORT 3

1745.5 1696.2 1653.6 1561.7 1512.4 1469.8

1646.90 1555.00 1610.90 1.72 1077

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -4025 130175

ALUMINIUM -1750 1046275

NICKEL -48 212796

LEAD -150 104975

ZINC -825 111750

0 0 0 0 0

Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 12

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

3:30pm EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.002 0

0 0 0 0 0

2:25pm EUR German Final Services PMI 53.3 53.3

2:30pm EUR Final Services PMI 53.1 53.1

2:15pm EUR Italian Services PMI 49.2 49.2

2:20pm EUR French Final Services PMI 55 55

Fresh Buying

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

1:45pm EUR Spanish Services PMI 53.9 54

TREND Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Selling

715

Cng in OI 14.89 -0.49 11.25 10.46 1.64 6.93 -4.44 9.90 1.00

SUPPORT

4541 21620 18105 4283 6492 3956 479.2 3319

725

4579 21710 18490 4332 6576 3973 483.1 3335 719

4606 21810 18745 4392 6652 3992 487.4 3348

491.3 3364 729

745

4709 22090 19770 4550 6896 4045 499.5 3393 739

503.8 3406

495.6 3377 735

P. POINT 4644 21900 19130 4441 6736 4009

4671 22000 19385 4501 6812 4028

RESISTANCE

4736 22190 20025 4610 6972 4064

4633 21900 19005 4451 6728 4012 491.6 3362

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX Chana Jan

2019

NCDEX Cotton Dec

2018

NCDEX Jeera Jan

2019

NCDEX Guarseed10

Jan 2019

NCDEX Turmeric

Apr 2019

NCDEX Rmseed Jan

2019MCX CPO Dec 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Jan 2019

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Jan 2019

730.2CLOSE

-4025

-1750

-48-150

-825

-4500

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

Page 13: Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix Groupreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIX... · Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, December 05, 2018. Date : Wednesday,

NEWS YOU CAN USE

Japan’s factory output grew the most in October since 2015, rebounding from a fall in the prior month caused by natural disasters, though manufacturers face a tough

road ahead in the face of increasing risks from global trade frictions. The 2.9 percent rise in output handily beat a median market forecast of a 1.2 percent increase, led

by items such as factory conveyors, smartphone parts and cars. It followed a revised 0.4 percent drop in the previous month, posting the fastest month-on-month gain

since January 2015. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expect output to rise 0.6 percent in November and increase 2.2

percent in December, data showed. Still, slowing global demand and the intensifying U.S.-China trade war could threaten global trade and growth in the coming months,

making export-reliant Japan more vulnerable. The ministry raised its assessment of industrial output, saying production is gradually picking up as a whole. Japan’s

economy, the world’s third largest, shrank more than expected in the third quarter, hit by natural disasters and sluggish exports. A recent batch of data such as retail

sales bolstered the view that Japan’s third-quarter economic contraction was likely temporary. Separate data showed Japan’s unemployment rate edged up to 2.4 percent

in October from 2.3 percent in September, while the jobs availability eased to 1.62 jobs per applicant from 1.64 in September, a level last seen in 1974.

Almost all Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting agreed another interest rate increase was “likely to be warranted fairly soon,” but also opened debate on when to

pause further hikes and how to relay those plans to the public. Minutes of the November meeting show policymakers ticking off a series of issues, including a tightening of

financial conditions, global risks, “and some signs of slowing in interest-sensitive sectors,” that had begun weighing on their view of the economy. An expected December

rate increase was further cemented into place. But Fed officials also indicated a potential shift in tone about the future. A few participants who agreed further rate

increases were likely to be warranted also “expressed uncertainty about the timing” as Fed officials discussed how to communicate a possible change in their approach to

any further hikes. “Participants also commented on how the Committee’s communications in its post-meeting statement might need to be revised at coming meetings,

particularly the language referring to the Committee’s expectations for ‘further gradual increases’ in the target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes said. “Many

participants indicated that it might be appropriate at some upcoming meetings to begin to transition to statement language that placed greater emphasis on the

evaluation of incoming data in assessing the economic and policy outlook; such a change would help to convey the Committee’s flexible approach in responding to

changing economic circumstances.”

Cotton yield in India is likely to decline this year to hit a three-year low due to crop damage following drought in its major growing states including Gujarat in

Maharasthra, the two states jointly contributing half of India’s cotton output. The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) headed by the Textile Commissioner under the Ministry of

Textiles, in its first estimate released this week, forecasts the yield to decline to 501.47 kg per hectare (ha) for the cotton season October 2018–September 2019 from

506.07 kg the previous year. As a result, average cotton output for the season is the lowest in three years. During the crop year 2016-17, the yield was reported at 459.2

kg per ha. With this, 2018-19 cotton season is set to become the second slowest year in nearly a decade. To capitalise on benefits, such as procurement at minimum

support price (MSP), offered by the government, farmers had brought additional area under this natural fibre last kharif sowing season. As a result, total acreage under

the crop rose to 12.24 million ha from 10.83 million ha in 2016-17. Amid hope of a normal monsoon as forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) at the

start of the season, cotton output was forecast to breach several years’ record. However, uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in Gujarat -- deficient in cotton growing

belts and surplus elsewhere -- coupled with drought in major cotton cultivating areas in Maharashtra such as Marathwada, is set to pull down India’s average yield this

year. The CAB estimates India’s cotton output at 36.1 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg) for 2018-19 compared with 37 million bales in the previous year.

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