daily commodity roundup as on - systematix...
TRANSCRIPT
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1
Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, December 05, 2018
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 2
NIKKEI21833
0.08 1.09 -0.92USDINR
70.69 S&P
INDEX
2790
DJIA25826
-0.29 -0.13 1.13SENSEX
36134NIFTY
10870
$ INDEX97.08
0.03 0.05 0.10
LME ALUMINIUM
1971 LME
LEAD
1994
11085
0.3 -0.04 -0.4
LME
COPPER
6187 LME
ZINC
2583
IN
TER
NA
TIO
NA
L M
AR
KET U
PD
ATE GOLD $
1234.91SILVER $
USDJPY112.946
-0.09 -0.08 0.16EURUSD
1.1330GBPUSD
1.2704
LME
NICKEL
14.45CRUDE $
53.25
-0.31 -0.37 0.57
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#
RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 3
Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30829-31273.
Federal Reserve's Clarida comments inflation risks running too low as expectations are "at the lower end of the range consistent with price stability"
Economic strength shown through declines in unemployment and financial hardship: Fed's Powell
Productivity picked up but not clear if trend sustained: Fed's Powell
Gold climbed as the dollar sagged after the United States and China agreed on a 90-day pause to fresh trade tariffs.
Gold on MCX settled up 0.7% at 31106 as the dollar sagged after the
United States and China agreed on a 90-day pause to fresh trade tariffs.
The dollar weakened against its major peers, pressured by a thaw in
trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, making gold cheaper for
holders of other currencies. Global trade tensions over the past few
months have seen investors opt for the safety of the U.S. currency rather
than bullion, a traditional safe haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump
and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping promised to halt the introduction
of new tariffs for 90 days, according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
The dollar also lost its upward momentum in recent days on dovish
signals from the Federal Reserve, which has indicated a possible pause in
interest rate hikes after a widely-expected December increase. The Perth
Mint's sales of gold products surged by nearly 75 percent in November
from the previous month, while silver sales fell, the mint said. Sales of
gold coins and minted bars climbed to 64,308 ounces in November, its
highest since January 2017. Sales nearly tripled compared with the same
month last year, the mint said in a blog post. Silver sales in November
were down 19 percent month-on-month at 876,446 ounces. From a year
earlier, sales rose 61 percent. The Perth Mint refines more than 90
percent of newly mined gold in Australia, the world's second-largest gold
producer after China. Technically market is under fresh buying as market
has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.6% to settled at 13222, now
Gold is getting support at 30967 and below same could see a test of
30829 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31189, a move
above could see prices testing 31273.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
30936
SUPPORT 3
31411 31273 31189 30967 30829 30745
31135 30913 31106 0.70 13222
RESIST 3 RESIST 2
MCX Gold Feb 2019
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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 4
Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36922-37964.
Wage gains, consumer confidence support robust spending: Fed's Powell
U.S. President Trump threatened to place “major tariffs” on Chinese goods imported into US if his administration is unable to reach an effective trade deal with Beijing.
Investors also kept a close eye on signals on the future path of interest rates next year by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the central bank widely expected to raise rates.
Silver prices gained as the dollar declined on easing U.S.-China trade worries.
Silver on MCX settled up 1.01% at 37481 as the dollar declined on easing
U.S.-China trade worries. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to
place “major tariffs” on Chinese goods imported into the United States if
his administration is unable to reach an effective trade deal with Beijing.
But China said Beijing and Washington will push forward with trade
negotiations in the next 90 days and it is confident that an agreement
can be implemented. The dollar index fell after U.S. President Donald
Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping promised to halt the
introduction of new tariffs for 90 days, according to Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi. The dollar also lost its upward momentum in recent
days on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has indicated a
possible pause in interest rate hikes after a widely-expected December
increase. US manufacturing activity picked up in November, according to
data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), though a gauge of
prices paid tumbled from a month earlier. ISM's US manufacturing index
rose to 59.3 in November from 57.7 in October, topping expectations for
a reading of 57.6. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Growth in Germany's manufacturing sector slowed to its lowest in two
and a half years in November as new orders contracted at the fastest rate
in four years. Markit's PMI for manufacturing, which accounts for about a
fifth of the economy, fell to 51.8, from 52.2 in October. Technically
market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open
interest by -2.16% to settled at 22570, now Silver is getting support at
37201 and below same could see a test of 36922 level, And resistance is
now likely to be seen at 37722, a move above could see prices testing
37964.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
37170 37685
38243 37964 37722 37201 36922 36680
37164 37481 1.01 22570
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1
MCX Silver Mar 2019
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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 5
Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3647-3927.
Crude climbed after Washington and Beijing agreed a truce in their trade disputes and said they would negotiate for 90 days before taking any further action.
The Middle East-dominated OPEC will on Dec. 6 meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, to agree a joint output policy.
OPEC's biggest problem is surging production in the United States, where output has grown by around 2 million bpd in a year to more than 11.5 million bpd.
Crude oil prices pared gains as fears flared that demand would stall due to a trade war, and as Russia remained a stumbling block to a deal to cut global supply.
Crudeoil on MCX settled up 1.1% at 3768 but prices pared gains as fears
flared that demand would stall due to a trade war between the U.S. and
China, and as Russia remained a stumbling block to a deal to cut global
crude supply. ahead of expected output cuts by producer cartel OPEC and
a mandated reduction in Canadian supply. Crude prices climbed after U.S.
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at a
meeting of the Group of 20 industrialised nations (G20) to pause an
escalating trade dispute. The Middle East-dominated Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet on Thursday in Vienna to agree
future output and will discuss strategy with other producers outside
OPEC, including Russia. The group is widely expected to announce
production cuts of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd), a move
forced by rapidly rising shale output in the United States and slower
growth in global oil demand. Helping OPEC in its efforts to rein in
emerging oversupply was an order on Sunday by the Canadian province
of Alberta for producers to scale back output by 325,000 bpd until excess
crude in storage is reduced. OPEC's biggest problem is surging production
in the United States where output, mostly from its southern shale fields,
has grown by around 2 million bpd in a year to more than 11.5 million
bpd. Barclays bank pointed out in a note to clients that oil production in
the state of Texas alone "reached 4.69 million bpd in September,
compared with Iraqi output of 4.66 million by our estimates". Technically
now Crudeoil is getting support at 3707 and below same could see a test
of 3647 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3847, a move
above could see prices testing 3927.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
3777 3867
3987 3927 3847 3707 3647 3567
3727 3768 1.10 15384
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1
MCX Crudeoil Dec 2018
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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 426.4-448.
Prices, weighed down by the trade dispute this year, had bounced after Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off on imposing further tariffs for 90 days.
Premiums for imports of copper into China sank to an 18-month low in a sign that demand for physical metal is waning after a buying spree.
Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 130175mt that is down by -4025mt.
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 6
Copper dropped as U.S.-China trade tensions resurfaced, raising concerns over economic growth and demand.
Copper on MCX settled down -1.61% at 434.50 eased on Tuesday as
markets awaited remedial action by the United States and China after the
two countries’ weekend agreement on a 90-day ceasefire in their
damaging trade dispute. Other metals, however, clung on to the previous
session’s gains, powered by a weaker dollar. At the G20 summit this
weekend, Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off from further tariffs
for 90 days, pausing a dispute that had dragged down metals and equity
markets. Markets remain sceptical, however, that full resolution will be
achieved soon. Yesterday US President Donald Trump held out the
possibility of an extension of the 90-day trade truce but made clear he
would revert to tariffs if the two sides could not resolve their differences.
The US expects China to cut tariffs on U.S. car imports and end
intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers as the
countries move towards a broader trade deal, a White House official said
on Monday. Last night the US dollar fell broadly overnight as US Treasury
yields slipped, feeding fears that the Federal Reserve could pause in its
rate-hike cycle, while an inversion in part of the yield curve was taken as
a red flag for a potential recession. Earlier in the session, the US dollar
index recovered to 97 following hawkish comment from New York Fed
President John Williams, who argued that further gradual rate hikes were
appropriate given the underlying economic strength of the US. A day
ahead Economic data slated for release today include China’s Caixin
services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for November and the
eurozone’s retail sales for October. Technically market is getting support
at 430.5 and below same could see a test of 426.4 level, And resistance
is now likely to be seen at 441.3, a move above could see prices testing
448.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
441.60
SUPPORT 3
452.1 448.0 441.3 430.5 426.4 419.7
443.90 433.15 434.50 -1.61 12885
RESIST 3 RESIST 2
MCX Copper Feb 2019
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#
RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 182.2-190.4.
The cash zinc premium over three-month metal, at $93, had returned to near 10-year highs after easing, suggesting shortages of immediately available metal.
Speculative investors were beginning to ramp up bets on lower prices, with their net short expanding to 3 percent of open contracts.
Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 111750mt that is down by -825mt.
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 7
MCX Zinc Dec 2018
Zinc prices rose as falling stockpiles and rising premiums for nearby metal highlighted a short-term supply squeeze, halting a slide to 10-week lows.
Zinc on MCX settled up 0.46% at 186.20 on short covering while prices
dropped from the day's high as the US dollar rebounded, and LME zinc
came off from a high of $2,610/mt and closed at $2,583.5/mt overnight.
Low LME inventories and wide LME zinc cash/three-month price
backwardation helped limit the losses in LME zinc. While current low
inventories limit downside room for the contract, weaker consumption
and an expected rise in long-term inventories will limit any upside room.
LME inventories of zinc touched their lowest since February 2008 at
111,750 tonnes, having halved since mid-August. The plunging stocks
pushed the premium for cash LME zinc over the three-month price to
more than $100 a tonne, close to a 20-year high touched on Friday. Last
night the US dollar fell broadly overnight as US Treasury yields slipped,
feeding fears that the Federal Reserve could pause in its rate-hike cycle,
while an inversion in part of the yield curve was taken as a red flag for a
potential recession. Earlier in the session, the US dollar index recovered
to 97 following hawkish comment from New York Fed President John
Williams, who argued that further gradual rate hikes were appropriate
given the underlying economic strength of the US. A day ahead Economic
data slated for release today include China’s Caixin services PMI for
November and the eurozone’s retail sales for October. Testimony from US
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Congress's Joint Economic Committee
about the economic outlook scheduled for Wednesday was postponed for
a national day of mourning following the death of former President
George H.W. Bush. Technically market is under short covering and
getting support at 184.2 and below same could see a test of 182.2 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.3, a move above could see
prices testing 190.4.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
184.6
SUPPORT 3
192.4 190.4 188.3 184.2 182.2 180.1
188.5 184.4 186.2 0.46 2534
RESIST 3 RESIST 2
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#
RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 767.1-813.9.
A survey showed China's factory activity grew slightly in November, while new export orders extended their decline.
US manufacturing activity picked up in November, according to ISM data, though a gauge of prices paid tumbled from a month earlier.
Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 212796mt that is down by -48mt.
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 8
MCX Nickel Dec 2018
Nickel eased as markets awaited remedial action by the US and China after the two countries’ weekend agreement on a 90-day ceasefire in their damaging trade dispute.
Nickel on MCX settled down -0.48% at 786 dropped on fresh selling
tracking LME nickel prices which relinquished earlier gains and closed at
$11,130/mt overnight as the US dollar climbed as doubts over China's
demand growth and whether the country will be able to resolve its trade
row with the United States within a 90-day timeframe came into focus.
Metals prices, weighed down by the trade dispute this year, had bounced
on Monday after Washington and Beijing agreed to hold off on imposing
further tariffs for 90 days. However, it has since emerged that none of the
commitments U.S. officials said had been given by China, including
reducing its 40 percent tariffs on autos, were agreed to in writing and
specifics have yet to be ironed out. Last night the US dollar fell broadly
overnight as US Treasury yields slipped, feeding fears that the Federal
Reserve could pause in its rate-hike cycle, while an inversion in part of
the yield curve was taken as a red flag for a potential recession. Earlier in
the session, the US dollar index recovered to 97 following hawkish
comment from New York Fed President John Williams, who argued that
further gradual rate hikes were appropriate given the underlying
economic strength of the US. A day ahead Economic data slated for
release today include China’s Caixin services purchasing managers’ index
(PMI) for November and the eurozone’s retail sales for October.
Testimony from US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Congress's Joint
Economic Committee about the economic outlook scheduled for
Wednesday was postponed for a national day of mourning following the
death of former President George H.W. Bush. Technically market is
getting support at 776.6 and below same could see a test of 767.1 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 800, a move above could see
prices testing 813.9.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
792
SUPPORT 3
823.4 813.9 800.0 776.6 767.1 753.2
804.4 781 786 -0.48 14297
RESIST 3 RESIST 2
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RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6335-6335.
Jeera supply in the spot market is low while rains were patchy in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan resulted in lower production estimates.
NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 27 tonnes to 2095 tonnes.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19403 rupee per 100 kg.
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 9
NCDEX Jeera Jan 2019
Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained tracking firmness in spot demand due to deficient monsoon, and lower production estimates.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.64% at 18990 tracking firmness in spot
demand amid deficient rainfall in key producing region of Gujarat like
Saurashtra and Kutch may lower the acreage. According to the initial
trade estimate, there may not be any increase in the sowing area of jeera
because of dry weather. However, if the producing states receive good
irrigation facilities through dams then the sowing area could see an
increase. Meanwhile, jeera arrivals in Unjha mandi, Gujarat were 4,061
bags (20 Kg/bag), compared to 3,102 bags. Jeera sowing in Gujarat fell
to 44,200 hectares from 130,100 hectares a year ago due to lack of
water, state government data showed. Sowing is likely to pickup in the
coming weeks. However, there are doubts of any increase in acreage due
to dry weather. Moreover, concern that standing cumin crops might get
affected amid scanty rainfalls also supported upward trend in prices.
Deficient rainfall in key producing region of Gujarat like Saurashtra and
Kutch may lower the acreage. According to the initial trade estimate,
there may not be any increase in the sowing area of jeera because of dry
weather. According to the market estimates, India has already exported
around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so far this year and there is a possibility
of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of this fiscal year. In
Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 32.65 Rupees to
end at 19324.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting
support at 18930 and below same could see a test of 18875 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 19050, a move above could see
prices testing 19115.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
19050
SUPPORT 3
20025 19770 19385 18745 18490 18105
19515 18875 19005 0.08 2136
RESIST 3 RESIST 2
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#
RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6576-6896.
According to farmers and traders this year production in Maharashtra can be less than last year.
NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 119 tonnes to 3170 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7069.05 Rupees gained 8.65 Rupees.
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 10
NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2019
Turmeric gained on expectation of improving upcountry demand in coming weeks.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.42% at 6728 on expectation of
improving upcountry demand in coming weeks. However, upside seen
limited amid increased acreage of turmeric in Tamilnadu, Karnataka and
Maharashtra and slip in exports. According to farmers and traders this
year production in Maharashtra can be less than last year. Deficit rainfall
in Maharashtra and Karnataka affected Turmeric standing crop. Lower
rainfall reported in Maharashtra Marathwada turmeric growing regions like
Hingoli, Sangli, Nanded, Basmath affect Turmeric standing crop. Turmeric
output this year is expected to be higher in the states of Tamilnadu,
Karnataka and Maharashtra. According to the Department of Horticulture
and Plantation Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in Erode may
jump nearly 80% on year to 5,300 hectare in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) because
of very good rainfall and availability of other water sources. In
Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare compared to 44,956
hectare a year ago, state government data showed. In Andhra Pradesh
farmers planted turmeric over an area 18,000 hectares up from 14,000
hectares a year ago. Turmeric exports during the month of September
were up 16.5% to 9,064 tons compared to 7,783 tons in the
corresponding period a year ago, according to Ministry of Commerce data.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7069.05
Rupees gained 8.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as
market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.64% to settled at 13010
while prices up 28 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6652 and
below same could see a test of 6576 level, And resistance is now likely to
be seen at 6812, a move above could see prices testing 6896.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
6680
SUPPORT 3
6972 6896 6812 6652 6576 6492
6820 6660 6728 0.42 13010
RESIST 3 RESIST 2
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#
RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1512.4-1696.2.
Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1802.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.43.40/-.
Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.
According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons.
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 11
MCX Menthaoil Dec 2018
Menthaoil settled up due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.
Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 1.72% at 1610.9 due to bullish demand
outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also
witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper
crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving
upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at
400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies
rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary
estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton
against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of
crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.
Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices
are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in
production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the
demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around
80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production
stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between
30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in
India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil
spot at Sambhal closed at 1802.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by
Rs.43.40/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has
witnessed drop in open interest by -7.95% to settled at 1077 while prices
up 27.3 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1561.7 and below
same could see a test of 1512.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 1653.6, a move above could see prices testing 1696.2.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
1555.00
SUPPORT 3
1745.5 1696.2 1653.6 1561.7 1512.4 1469.8
1646.90 1555.00 1610.90 1.72 1077
RESIST 3 RESIST 2
TIME ZONE Forecast
CommodityLME STOCK Stock
COPPER -4025 130175
ALUMINIUM -1750 1046275
NICKEL -48 212796
LEAD -150 104975
ZINC -825 111750
0 0 0 0 0
Date : Wednesday, December 05, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 12
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
3:30pm EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.002 0
0 0 0 0 0
2:25pm EUR German Final Services PMI 53.3 53.3
2:30pm EUR Final Services PMI 53.1 53.1
2:15pm EUR Italian Services PMI 49.2 49.2
2:20pm EUR French Final Services PMI 55 55
Fresh Buying
LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA
DATA Previous
1:45pm EUR Spanish Services PMI 53.9 54
TREND Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Selling
715
Cng in OI 14.89 -0.49 11.25 10.46 1.64 6.93 -4.44 9.90 1.00
SUPPORT
4541 21620 18105 4283 6492 3956 479.2 3319
725
4579 21710 18490 4332 6576 3973 483.1 3335 719
4606 21810 18745 4392 6652 3992 487.4 3348
491.3 3364 729
745
4709 22090 19770 4550 6896 4045 499.5 3393 739
503.8 3406
495.6 3377 735
P. POINT 4644 21900 19130 4441 6736 4009
4671 22000 19385 4501 6812 4028
RESISTANCE
4736 22190 20025 4610 6972 4064
4633 21900 19005 4451 6728 4012 491.6 3362
DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL
COMMODITIESNCDEX Chana Jan
2019
NCDEX Cotton Dec
2018
NCDEX Jeera Jan
2019
NCDEX Guarseed10
Jan 2019
NCDEX Turmeric
Apr 2019
NCDEX Rmseed Jan
2019MCX CPO Dec 2018
NCDEX Soyabean
Jan 2019
NCDEX
Ref.Soya oil
Jan 2019
730.2CLOSE
-4025
-1750
-48-150
-825
-4500
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC
LME STOCK
NEWS YOU CAN USE
Japan’s factory output grew the most in October since 2015, rebounding from a fall in the prior month caused by natural disasters, though manufacturers face a tough
road ahead in the face of increasing risks from global trade frictions. The 2.9 percent rise in output handily beat a median market forecast of a 1.2 percent increase, led
by items such as factory conveyors, smartphone parts and cars. It followed a revised 0.4 percent drop in the previous month, posting the fastest month-on-month gain
since January 2015. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) expect output to rise 0.6 percent in November and increase 2.2
percent in December, data showed. Still, slowing global demand and the intensifying U.S.-China trade war could threaten global trade and growth in the coming months,
making export-reliant Japan more vulnerable. The ministry raised its assessment of industrial output, saying production is gradually picking up as a whole. Japan’s
economy, the world’s third largest, shrank more than expected in the third quarter, hit by natural disasters and sluggish exports. A recent batch of data such as retail
sales bolstered the view that Japan’s third-quarter economic contraction was likely temporary. Separate data showed Japan’s unemployment rate edged up to 2.4 percent
in October from 2.3 percent in September, while the jobs availability eased to 1.62 jobs per applicant from 1.64 in September, a level last seen in 1974.
Almost all Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting agreed another interest rate increase was “likely to be warranted fairly soon,” but also opened debate on when to
pause further hikes and how to relay those plans to the public. Minutes of the November meeting show policymakers ticking off a series of issues, including a tightening of
financial conditions, global risks, “and some signs of slowing in interest-sensitive sectors,” that had begun weighing on their view of the economy. An expected December
rate increase was further cemented into place. But Fed officials also indicated a potential shift in tone about the future. A few participants who agreed further rate
increases were likely to be warranted also “expressed uncertainty about the timing” as Fed officials discussed how to communicate a possible change in their approach to
any further hikes. “Participants also commented on how the Committee’s communications in its post-meeting statement might need to be revised at coming meetings,
particularly the language referring to the Committee’s expectations for ‘further gradual increases’ in the target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes said. “Many
participants indicated that it might be appropriate at some upcoming meetings to begin to transition to statement language that placed greater emphasis on the
evaluation of incoming data in assessing the economic and policy outlook; such a change would help to convey the Committee’s flexible approach in responding to
changing economic circumstances.”
Cotton yield in India is likely to decline this year to hit a three-year low due to crop damage following drought in its major growing states including Gujarat in
Maharasthra, the two states jointly contributing half of India’s cotton output. The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) headed by the Textile Commissioner under the Ministry of
Textiles, in its first estimate released this week, forecasts the yield to decline to 501.47 kg per hectare (ha) for the cotton season October 2018–September 2019 from
506.07 kg the previous year. As a result, average cotton output for the season is the lowest in three years. During the crop year 2016-17, the yield was reported at 459.2
kg per ha. With this, 2018-19 cotton season is set to become the second slowest year in nearly a decade. To capitalise on benefits, such as procurement at minimum
support price (MSP), offered by the government, farmers had brought additional area under this natural fibre last kharif sowing season. As a result, total acreage under
the crop rose to 12.24 million ha from 10.83 million ha in 2016-17. Amid hope of a normal monsoon as forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) at the
start of the season, cotton output was forecast to breach several years’ record. However, uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in Gujarat -- deficient in cotton growing
belts and surplus elsewhere -- coupled with drought in major cotton cultivating areas in Maharashtra such as Marathwada, is set to pull down India’s average yield this
year. The CAB estimates India’s cotton output at 36.1 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg) for 2018-19 compared with 37 million bales in the previous year.
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