daily market outlook · daily market outlook 14 oct 2016 2 please see disclaimer on last page...

Daily Market Outlook 14 Oct 2016

1

Please see disclaimer on last page

AWS pays heartfelt tributes to our beloved King Thai shares look set for a cautious trading session today after the announcement of the passing of Thailand’s beloved King yesterday. Asian stock markets this morning seem to take a breather after dismal trade data from China rocked global bourses in the previous session. Global investors are turning attention to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Boston later today and US retail sales and consumer confidence data also due today as the last chance to gauge if the Fed will hike rates in December.

Pick of the day: TU (Bt20.60; BUY; AWS 17TP Bt25.00) Thai Union PCL is a world class seafood producer whose great achievement in recent years has been its successful inorganic expansion and we believe this winning streak will continue going forward. TU will also benefit markedly from the US dollar’s appreciation trend against the baht. The company set a target to reach US$8bn in total revenues by 2020, up from US$4bn this year, representing robust growth of 25% p.a. Stripping out extra items in 2015, we estimate TU’s normalized profit to surge 34% YoY in 2016 and 8% YoY in 2017. This year we expect the company’s gross profit margin (GPM) to improve to 16% and net profit margin (NPM) to reach 4-5% for the whole year, up from a GPM of 15.8% and NPM of 4.4%

in 1H16. Of its total revenues, exports account for 92% and domestic sales represent 8% while US dollar revenues account for 62% and euro revenues 30%. Therefore, TU will benefit when the US dollar appreciates against the baht, as its revenues and profits in baht will swell. The outlook for TU’s tuna and shrimp businesses is stable for at least the next six months. We also expect more interesting acquisitions on the horizon. Our 2017 target price of Bt25.00, which is derived from a 3-year average of PER of 20x, offers 21% upside. TU’s price pattern indicates a very strong uptrend with a buy signal occurring in all of its three key charts, namely daily, weekly and monthly. The next target price is Bt22.00 with a stop loss at Bt20.50. (Resistance: 20.90, 21.30, 21.90; Support: 20.40, 20.00, 19.40) Local issue His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej passed away.

As announced by the Royal Household Bureau, His

Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej passed away peacefully

at Chalermphrakiet Building of Siriraj Hospital at 3.52pm

yesterday. (Bangkok Post)

To propose three double-track rail projects to the

cabinet in October. Transport Minister Arkom

Termpitayapaisit said he will submit a proposal for three

double-track rail projects to the cabinet in October,

including 148-km Lop Buri-Pak Nam Pho route worth

Bt24.8bn, 165-km Nakhon Pathom-Hua Hin route worth

Bt20.0bn, and 90-km Hua Hin-Prachuap Khiri Khan route

worth Bt10.3bn. (InfoQuest)

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,412.82 +6.6 +0.5

SET50 906.77 +10.5 +1.2

SET P/E (x) 20.7

SET P/BV (x) 1.8

SET Div. Yield (%) 3.3

Dow Jones 18,098.94 -45.3 -0.2

S&P 500 2,132.55 -6.6 -0.3

NASDAQ 5,213.33 -25.7 -0.5

UK 6,977.74 -46.3 -0.7

Germany 10,414.07 -109.0 -1.0

France 4,405.17 -47.1 -1.1

Japan 16,774.24 -65.8 -0.4

South Korea 2,015.44 -18.3 -0.9

Hong Kong 23,031.30 -375.8 -1.6

China 3,061.35 +2.8 +0.1

Taiwan 9,219.17 -33.4 -0.4

Singapore 2,805.48 -8.2 -0.3

Malaysia 1,665.02 -2.0 -0.1

Indonesia 5,340.40 -24.2 -0.5

Philippines 7,312.18 -117.6 -1.6

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 15,143 5,426 9,716

Proprietary 10,758 13,255 -2,497

Foreign 31,227 31,801 -574

Individuals 46,695 53,340 -6,645

Total Trading Value 103,823 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

AOT 6,891 362.00 1.7 PTT 4,899 338.00 0.3 CPALL 3,949 61.75 4.7 KBANK 3,638 187.00 2.7 SCB 3,547 142.00 1.4

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 50.44 +0.3 +0.5

Brent Crude 52.03 +0.2 +0.4

Gold 1257.60 +3.8 +0.3

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 35.40 -0.3 -0.7

EUR/USD 1.11 +0.0 +0.5

USD/JPY 103.68 -0.5 -0.5

USD/CNY 6.72 +0.0 +0.1

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance)

IVL (S: 23.10, R: 31.50); BEM (S: 5.90, R: 7.70); SCB (S: 133.00, R: 151.50); SET (S: 1,339, R: 1,487)

Thailand Research Department

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090

Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 02 680 5077

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpun, CFA, FRM (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094


2


Global issues Investors will have their last chance to gauge whether the Fed will tighten

monetary policy through a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in Boston and

US indicators due later in the day, including September retail sales and the

University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. (Reuters)

US Treasury prices extended earlier gains on Thursday following solid

demand at a US$12bn auction of 30-year government bonds, the last part of

this week's US$56bn in coupon-bearing supply. Benchmark 10-year Treasury

notes were last up 13/32 in price for a yield of 1.731%, down 5 basis points from

late on Wednesday, while the 30-year bond was nearly 1 point higher with a

yield of 2.465%, down over 4 basis points on the day. (Reuters)

The dollar tumbled from a seven-month high on Thursday, as risk appetite

took a turn for the worse after soft Chinese trade data spooked a market that is

expecting an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve by the end of the

year. The dollar index slipped 0.3% to 97.695, after notching a seven-month

peak earlier in the session. (Reuters)

USA Wall Street shares edged down on Thursday dragged down by financial

shares and weak Chinese economic data. However, a late-day rebound in oil

prices limited the day's losses. Financials, which have been under pressure

following negative news on Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, were down ahead

of quarterly results due Friday from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and

Citigroup. (Reuters)

US jobless claims held at a 43-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor

market strength. The claims were unchanged at 246,000 last week, the lowest

reading since November 1973. The figure for the prior week was revised to

show 3,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. It was the

84th consecutive week that the claims were below the 300,000 threshold, which

is associated with robust labor market conditions. That is the longest stretch

since 1970. Economists had the claims rising to 254,000 in the latest week.

(Reuters) Europe European shares fell on Thursday as underwhelming Chinese trade data

knocked down mining stocks while Standard Life and Aegon slid on broker

downgrades. (Reuters)

ECB likely to delay actions till December: The ECB will meet next week on

20 Oct and could discuss changes to the bank's bond-buying programme.

However, they may put off any decision until their next meeting in December

awaiting the rate decisions of the Fed. (Reuters)

Asia Disappointing China trade data: China's September exports fell 10% YoY, far

worse than expected, while imports unexpectedly shrank after picking up in

August. The disappointing trade figures pointed to weaker demand both at

home and abroad. China's exports had been expected to fall 3%, slightly worse

than in August. Imports shrank 1.9%, dashing hopes for a second rise in a row.

Imports had unexpectedly grown 1.5% in August, the first expansion in nearly

two years. That left China with a trade surplus of US$41.99bn for the month,

the lowest in six months, and against market expectation for a surplus of

US$53bn. (Reuters)

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China rose 4.2% YoY to 609.03bn yuan

(US$95.09bn) in the first nine months of this year, the Commerce Ministry said

on Thursday. In September, FDI rose 1.2% YoY to 60.2bn yuan (US$9.21bn).

(Reuters)


3


Japanese households' inflation expectations weakened for the fifth

straight quarter to a nearly four-year low in 3Q16, the BOJ’s survey showed,

a sign its heavy money printing is failing to boost stagnant economic growth.

The ratio of households which expect prices to rise a year from now stood at

65.1% in September, down from 72.4% in June, to hit its lowest since December

2012. (Reuters)

Commodities Oil prices steadied on Thursday, as a US government report of larger-than-

expected draws in diesel and gasoline helped prices rebound from losses

incurred when data showed the first crude inventory build in six weeks was

much larger than expected. Brent crude settled up 22 cents (+0.4%) at

US$52.03 per barrel. US crude ended up 26 cents (+0.55) at US$50.44.

(Reuters)

US refined products draws vs crude build: The US EIA said crude stocks

swelled 4.9mn barrels in the week ended 7 Oct. It was the first crude build since

the end of August and was far above a 700,000-barrel rise forecast by analysts.

However, the same report showed a drop of 3.7mn barrels for distillates, which

include diesel and heating oil, and 1.9mn barrels decline for gasoline. Analysts

had expected distillates to draw by just 1.6mn barrels and gasoline to decline

by 1.5mn. (Reuters)

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as the dollar declined and after world

shares slipped following renewed worries about China's economy. Spot gold

was up 0.3% at US$1,257.83 an ounce while US gold futures climbed 0.4% to

US$1,259.10 an ounce. (Reuters)


4


Date Regions

11-Oct-16 EU

11-Oct-16 US

11-Oct-16 JP

12-Oct-16 US

12-Oct-16 EU

13-Oct-16 EU

14-Oct-16 CN

14-Oct-16 US

14-Oct-16 US

14-Oct-16 US Fed's Yellen Speech

Economic Indicators

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Oct)

Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct)

Labor Market Conditions Index (Sep)

FOMC Minutes

Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Aug)

EU Extraordinary Economic Summit

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Sep)

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri

3 4 5 6 7XD

TF

XD

MODERN

NSI

SPA

TCAP

TCAP-P

10 11 12 13 14XD

PRG

17 18 19 20 21XD

LHSC

QHPF

XD

MBK

XD

JMART

24 25 26 27 28

31

Oct-16

5


CG Rating

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EGCO GRAMMYHANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINTMONO NKI PHOL PPS PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMARTSAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SE-ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO TKT TMBTOP VGI WACOAL

AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP BMCL BOL BROOKBWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTADEMCO ECF EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICCICHI INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK MC MEGAMFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC OISHI OTO PAP PDI PEPG PJW PM PPP PR PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q-CON QH RS S&JSABINA SAMCO SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT SNPSPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSPTCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TKTKS TMI TMILL TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWPC UAC UT UVVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICOVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO

2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH AMARIN AP APCOAQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHIBKD BTNC CBG CGD CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSCCSP CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE FOCUS FORTHFPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECHIEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGIKKC KTIS KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR MAKROMATCH MATI MBKET M-CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTIMTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDGPF PICO PL PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN SCP SEAOIL SIRISKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPISUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TICTIW TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI UP UPFUPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN XO

Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)

6


CG Rating

ข้อมูล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบริษัทจดทะเบียน

ระดบั 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG

ระดบั 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดบั 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO

ระดบั 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดบั 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดบั 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP

ไม่เปิดเผยหรือไม่มีนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตุระดบั 1 : มนีโยบายระดบั 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณ์ระดบั 3 : มมีาตรการป้องกนั ซึ่งทัง้ 2 กรณี ถอืเป็นผลการประเมนิในระดบัเดยีวกนั

3A : บรษิทัมกีารประกาศเจตนารมณ์เขา้ร่วมโครงการ CAC หรอืภาค3B : บรษิทัมคี ามน่ั และนโยบายของบรษิทั แต่มไิดป้ระกาศเจตนารมณ์เขา้ร่วมโครงการ CAC หรอืภาค

ระดบั 4 : ไดร้บัการรบัรองระดบั 5 : ขยายผลสูผู่ท้ ีเ่กีย่วขอ้ง

7


Contact

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,

Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,

Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1

Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21

Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110

02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,

Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,

Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

02-884-7333 02-884-7357,

02-884-7367

Chaengwattana

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd

Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2300 02-8353006

Chaengwattana 2

9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,

Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2388 02-119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad

Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang

District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen

40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi

20000

038-053-858 038-784-090

Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-

District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591

daily market outlook · daily market outlook 14 oct 2016 2 please see disclaimer on last page...

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