daily technical trader - qatar february 22

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Monday, 22 February 2016

Stocks Covered Today

Ticker Price Target

MERS 189.00 194.40

QGTS 22.70 21.80

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 9,907.82 -0.60 8.7

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,000 10,250 10,350

Support 9,800 9,600 9,400

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

The QSE Index flirted with the 10,000

level but it could not sustain it and

dropped, a bearish Harami candlestick

pattern was created. The pattern carries

low bearish significance, but never the

less it is a sign that should not be ignored

around the 10,000 points.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,000

Expected Support Level: 9,800

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 21 Feb 18 Feb %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 458.5 392.1 16.9

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 526.8 529.0 -0.4

Volume (mn) 12.9 12.3 5.0

Number of Trans. 5,182 5,931 -12.6

Companies Traded 38 41 -7.3

Market Breadth 18:19 27:14 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 15,452.24 -0.6 58.4

All Share Index 2,646.70 -0.4 58.9

Banks 2,710.35 -0.5 60.9

Industrials 2,868.49 -0.3 54.2

Transportation 2,331.29 0.4 54.8

Real Estate 2,158.59 -1.0 55.7

Insurance 4,229.60 0.1 64.2

Telecoms 1,053.68 0.7 60.0

Consumer Goods 5,839.51 -1.0 64.9

Al Rayan Islamic 3,522.92 -0.3 55.3

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

SIIS 12.33 -0.6 72.7

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)



MERS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 189.00 2.16 16,277

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 189.10 194.40 197.50

Support 180.00 170.00 165.00

Commentary

Overview:

The name retreated and was the price

dipped as we sent a sell recommendation

on the name (sent out on the 11 of this

month). This retreat might have ended

and could be starting another positive

round.

Expected Target Price: QR194.40 –

QR197.50

A price breakaway above QR189.10

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR180.00

(Daily)


(Hourly)



QGTS

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 22.70 0.44 437,352

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 23.00 23.70 24.20

Support 22.50 21.80 21.40

Commentary

Overview:

The price created three different, yet all

bearish, candlesticks. Without going into

the details, these candlesticks and their

formation exhibit a possible change in the

short-term momentum from buying to a

selling one.

Expected Price Retreat: QR21.80 –

QR21.40

A price breach below QR22.50 triggers the

sell recommendation.

(Daily)


(Hourly)



Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 9,907.82 9,840.26 9,878.97 9,902.89 9,941.60 9,980.31 10,004.23 10,042.94 9,649.33 10,414.01 11,132.08

Total Return 15,452.24 15,346.88 15,407.25 15,444.55 15,504.92 15,565.29 15,602.59 15,662.96 15,011.73 16,193.71 17,305.77

All Share 2,646.70 2,630.05 2,639.44 2,645.24 2,654.64 2,664.03 2,669.83 2,679.23 2,571.75 2,774.03 2,969.08

Al Rayan Islamic 3,522.92 3,487.55 3,506.10 3,517.56 3,536.10 3,554.65 3,566.11 3,584.65 3,498.57 3,858.29 4,212.28

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 36.85 35.45 36.23 36.72 37.50 38.28 38.77 39.55 34.64 37.93 41.39

CBQK 42.70 42.10 42.42 42.63 42.95 43.27 43.48 43.80 42.52 47.30 51.46

DHBK 41.25 39.95 40.43 40.72 41.20 41.68 41.97 42.45 40.08 44.21 48.52

QIBK 100.00 98.40 99.32 99.88 100.80 101.72 102.28 103.20 97.41 107.42 108.10

QIIK 68.00 66.27 66.88 67.26 67.87 68.48 68.86 69.47 62.88 67.94 73.01

Insurance

QATI 88.50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 80.97 86.11 91.24

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 95.80 89.40 91.62 92.98 95.20 97.42 98.78 101.00 102.39 127.83 151.97

Industrials

IQCD 106.00 103.33 104.86 105.81 107.33 108.86 109.81 111.33 101.37 109.03 122.21

QEWS 206.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 199.37 204.94 210.96

GISS 32.00 29.33 30.10 30.57 31.33 32.10 32.57 33.33 42.75 51.71 62.10

QIGD 32.50 29.10 30.07 30.68 31.65 32.62 33.23 34.20 31.90 37.70 44.07

Real Estate

BRES 37.50 36.37 36.81 37.08 37.52 37.96 38.23 38.67 35.64 39.53 44.05

UDCD 21.39 20.40 20.82 21.08 21.50 21.92 22.18 22.60 19.44 21.32 22.69

ERES 14.38 14.27 14.33 14.36 14.41 14.47 14.50 14.55 14.56 16.39 17.25

MRDS 11.60 11.38 11.49 11.55 11.66 11.77 11.83 11.94 12.60 14.27 16.06

Telecommunication

ORDS 87.10 85.90 86.28 86.52 86.90 87.28 87.52 87.90 76.57 75.73 79.49

VFQS 10.36 10.25 10.31 10.35 10.40 10.46 10.50 10.55 11.16 12.30 13.99

Transportation

QGTS 22.70 22.11 22.37 22.53 22.79 23.05 23.21 23.47 22.08 23.10 22.65

QNNS 94.50 92.97 93.50 93.83 94.37 94.90 95.23 95.77 91.24 94.48 96.12 Sources: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price


Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.


Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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daily technical trader - qatar february 22

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