dairy market news week of march 16 - 20, 2020 volume 87 report … · 2020-03-20 · dairy market...

DAIRY MARKET NEWS WEEK OF MARCH 16 - 20, 2020 VOLUME 87 REPORT 12

DAIRY MARKET NEWS AT A GLANCE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Product Highlights/CME/DMN at a Glance 1 Weekly CME Cash Trading/Butter Markets 2 Cheese Markets 3 Fluid Milk and Cream 4 Nonfat Dry Milk/Dry Buttermilk/Dry Whole Milk 5

Dry Whey/WPC 34%/Lactose/Casein 6 U.S Dairy Cow Slaughter/Class Milk Prices/NDPSR/Futures 7 Organic Dairy Market News 8 February Milk Production 9 April Advanced Class Prices 10

2018 Revised Annual Mailbox 11 Dairy Graphs G1 National Retail Report—Dairy Dairy Market News Contacts

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/20) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.7550. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.7275 (-0.0880). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4300 and 40# blocks at $1.8375. The weekly average for barrels is $1.4500 (-.0030) and blocks, $1.8635 (+.0710). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $0.9875. The weekly average for Grade A is $.9890 (-.0775). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $.3300. The weekly average for dry whey is $.3260 (-.0165). CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Throughout the country, retail orders have climbed. For the same reason for the retail push, food service orders have nearly dissolved. The coronavirus epidemic has cleared grocery store shelves of necessities. Notably, the toilet paper industry is thriving. But toilet paper is not alone. Milk, butter, cheese, and yogurt are also clearing from the aisles. That positive push, though, cannot be said for cheese producers who are significantly affected by school closures. School districts are closed into early April (or later) across the board. Spot milk prices were discounted again, this week's range was $2 to $6 under Class. Next week's spot milk price for Class III production is in question, as there is a lot of milk but also more pulls from bottlers. Cheese production is also mixed. There are plants running 7-days a week. However, there are some that are closed for scheduled maintenance. BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Butter makers say near-term retail butter demand is strong across the country. Manufacturers report certain retail account orders are several times higher than typical. Consumers have been stocking up on basic needs due to the coronavirus outbreak. While the swell of retail business has kept butter production active, food service accounts are diminishing. In general, butter inventories are steady to growing. Nationwide, this week, bulk prices are ranging from 1 cent below the market to 7.5 cents above the market. FLUID MILK/CREAM: Farm milk production is seasonally higher across the country. Despite many schools closed, retail sales of bottled milk have been increasing as citizens stock up and hunker down amid the coronavirus pandemic. Most manufacturers have told office workers to work from home in accordance with social distancing efforts. Industry contacts say they have not experienced any issues with milk collection, transportation or processing, but are constantly monitoring the situation. Cream is heavy in supply. As more milk enters bottling facilities, milk fat is being spun off and cream handlers are concerned about increasing supplies with only

steady/lackluster demand. Price factors for cream for all Classes are ranging from 1.00 to 1.20 throughout the country. DRY PRODUCTS: Nationwide, low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are down on an ambivalent market, mainly driven by the coronavirus crisis. Some contacts say NDM regular production schedules could be impacted soon due COVID-19 spread mitigation practices in some balancing plants. High heat NDM prices are falling in conjunction with low/medium heat NDM. Production is irregular, driven by contractual needs. Cash price for dry buttermilk are mostly down, shadowing NDM values. Uncertainty in terms of supply/demand prevails in the market. However, most balancing plants have been able to handle large amounts of buttermilk, remnants of active regional butter churning. National dry whole milk cash prices shifted down too, during the current week. Dry whey prices are mixed across the nation. Production is steady to a bit slower this week as the demand for Class I has skyrocketed. Manufacturers’ dry whey supplies are available for their customers’ needs. The whey protein concentrate 34% price range and mostly price series both expanded this week as WPC 34% market segments diverged. Economic uncertainties are making it more difficult for manufacturers to sell WPC 34% at prices above nonfat dry milk or other protein alternatives. Lactose prices are unchanged. Dairy industry contacts state that while uncertainty has eroded prices for other commodities, the market tone for lactose is firm. Rennet casein prices are higher, while acid casein prices are steady. ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: This week, organic milk accounts for 61% of organic dairy retail ad numbers by commodity, but posted a 9% decline compared to the last period. The retail milk price spread between conventional and organic half gallon milk is $2.37. Regionally, the number of organic milk ads were higher in the Northeast and Southwest. Retail ads for organic cheese and yogurt changed 182% and minus 21%, respectively. Overall, organic butter in, one-pound packaging, posted the largest change in ad volume, up 133% over the previous period. Organic sour cream in 16-ounce packaging followed, increasing 113 percent. NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT (DMN): This week, adjustments resulting from the onset of COVID-19 has caused several stores to not post online dairy product advertisements. The total number of dairy product advertisements decreased 11 percent for conventional, while the ones for organic declined 6 percent. The national weighted average advertised price for conventional milk in half gallons is $1.45, compared to $3.82 for organic milk half

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-CONTINUED FROM PAGE 8- gallons, resulting in an organic premium of $2.37. The total number of ads for conventional yogurt decrease by 21 percent, whereas organic yogurt ads increased by 51 percent. The total number of ads for conventional cheese dropped 12 percent, but organic cheese ads climbed 182 percent. FEBRUARY MILK PRODUCTION (NASS): Milk production in the 24 major States during February totaled 17.0 billion pounds, up 5.6 Percent from February 2019. However, adjusting production for the additional day due to leap year causes February milk production to be up 2.0 percent on a per day basis. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,927 pounds for February, 94 pounds above February 2019. When production is adjusted for the additional day due to leap year, February production per cow is 27 pounds above February 2019 on a per day basis. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.84 million head, 39,000 head more than February 2019, and 8,000 head more than January 2020 APRIL ADVANCED CLASS PRICES (FMMO): The base Class I price for April 2020 is $16.64 per cwt, a decrease of $0.82 per cwt when compared to March 2020. A Class I differential for each order's principle pricing point (county) is added to the base price to determine the Class I Price. For April 2020, the advanced Class IV skim milk pricing factor is $8.85 per cwt, the Class II skim milk price is $9.55 per cwt, and the Class II nonfat solids price is $1.0611 per pound. The two-week product price averages for April 2020 are: butter $1.7767, nonfat dry milk $1.1609, cheese $1.7346, and dry whey $0.3729. 2018 REVISED ANNUAL MAILBOX PRICES (FMMO): In 2018, mailbox milk prices for selected reporting areas in Federal milk orders averaged $15.72 per cwt., $1.59 lower than 2017. The component tests of producer milk in 2018 averaged: butterfat, 3.88 percent; protein, 3.15 percent; and other solids, 5.76 percent.

WEEK OF MARCH 16 - 20, 2020 DAIRY MARKET NEWS VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

DAIRY MARKET NEWS AT A GLANCE

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DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16 - 20, 2020 -2- VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

NORTHEAST

Butter churning is steady as holiday seasonal demand supports a high volume of print butter manufacturing. Bulk output is somewhat steady. Standardization from the growing milk supply, in past weeks, has helped provide cream used in butter making, but steady pulls from Class II cream usage distresses spot cream for churning. In essence, the cream is gone, as sources report little to none availability in the spot market. With good interest from print butter contracts, supplies are being delivered without reported disruptions due to the coronavirus. Sources see improvement in sales of specialty butter. Manufacturers’ holdings are mixed. However, they are generally balanced to meet the near-term demand. Bulk sales are 4 to 7 cents over the market, based on the CME with various time frames and averages used. The butter market undertone is soft. Promotional activity for conventional print butter shows a 37 percent decline in the Northeast and 22 percent drop in the Southeast. Across the U.S., retail advertisements declined 37 percent. Prices for: Eastern U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Grade AA, Conventional, and Edible Butter Bulk Basis Pricing - 80% Butterfat $/LB: +0.0400 - +0.0700 Secondary Sourced Information: CME TRADING The CME Group's Tuesday cash butter price closed at $1.7400, down from $1.8175 a week ago.

CENTRAL

Butter makers are seeing positives in retail demand. They suggest it is too early to tell whether it is the "toilet paper effect," wherein customers are buying dietary staples along with toiletry items, or whether the retail upticks are early spring holiday demand. Regardless, food service accounts were not granted the luck of the Irish, this week. Schools and universities have no need to order for upcoming weeks, with state mandated closures ending no earlier than early April in many states. Cream is plentiful. As more milk flows from processing to bottling, also due to aforementioned grocery shelf clearances, more cream is being spun off adding to an already heavy supply. Contacts are hopeful that bakery and ice cream needs lend some help, otherwise dumping is expected. Butter markets are taking a hit. With the amount of bearishness/uncertainty in all markets right now, butter is no exception this time around.

Prices for: Central U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Grade AA, Conventional, and Edible Butter Bulk Basis Pricing - 80% Butterfat $/LB: -0.0100 - +0.0400

WEST Western butter makers say near-term retail butter demand is strong. Manufacturers report certain retail account orders are several times higher than typical. Consumers have been stocking up on basic needs due to the coronavirus outbreak. While the swell of retail business has kept butter production active, food service accounts are diminishing. Butter prices have fallen to levels that are again prompting some bulk butter purchases for future coverage needs. And although butter prices in cash markets have fallen, some manufacturers have been able to maintain bulk butter overages. Butter inventories are steady to growing. Prices for: Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Grade AA, Conventional, and Edible Butter Bulk Basis Pricing - 80% Butterfat $/LB: 0.0000 - +0.0750 Secondary Sourced Information: CME CLOSING PRICE The Grade AA butter price at the CME Group on Wednesday closed at $1.6700, compared to the weekly average price of $1.8155 from last week.

BUTTER MARKETS

NOTICE: Five days of trading information can be found at www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/spot-call-data.html

Prices shown are in U.S. dollars per lb. in carlot quantities. Carlot unit weights: CHEESE, 40,000-44,000 lbs.; NONFAT DRY MILK, 41,000-45,000 lbs.; BUTTER, 40,000-43,000 lbs.;DRY WHEY, 41,000-45,000 lbs. Weekly Change is the sum of Daily Price Changes. Weekly Average is the simple average of the Daily Cash Close prices for the calendar week. Weekly Average Change is the difference between current and previous Weekly Average. Computed by Dairy Market News for informational purposes. This data is available on the Internet at WWW.AMS.USDA.GOV/MARKET-NEWS/DAIRY

CME GROUP

COMMODITY MONDAY MAR 16

TUESDAY MAR 17

WEDNESDAY MAR 18

THURSDAY MAR 19

FRIDAY MAR 20

:: WEEKLY CHANGE

:: WEEKLY AVERAGE

CHEESE

BARRELS $1.5000 (N.C.)

$1.5000 (N.C.)

$1.4325 (-0.0675)

$1.3875 (-0.0450)

$1.4300 (+0.0425)

:: ::

(-0.0700)

:: ::

$1.4500 (-0.0030)

40 POUND BLOCKS $1.8725 (N.C.)

$1.8725 (N.C.)

$1.8725 (N.C.)

$1.8625 (-0.0100)

$1.8375 (-0.0250)

:: ::

(-0.0350)

:: ::

$1.8635 (+0.0710)

NONFAT DRY MILK

GRADE A $1.0250 (-0.0275)

$1.0050 (-0.0200)

$0.9650 (-0.0400)

$0.9625 (-0.0025)

$0.9875 (+0.0250)

:: ::

(-0.0650)

:: ::

$0.9890 (-0.0775)

BUTTER

GRADE AA $1.7725 (-0.0400)

$1.7400 (-0.0325)

$1.6700 (-0.0700)

$1.7000 (+0.0300)

$1.7550 (+0.0550)

:: ::

(-0.0575)

:: ::

$1.7275 (-0.0880)

DRY WHEY

EXTRA GRADE $0.3250 (-0.0225)

$0.3250 (N.C.)

$0.3200 (-0.0050)

$0.3300 (+0.0100)

$0.3300 (N.C.)

:: ::

(-0.0175)

:: ::

$0.3260 (-0.0165)

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16 - 20, 2020 VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

CHEESE MARKETS

NORTHEAST

Retail cheese sales and several other dairy product retail sales have grown in the East, as consumers continue to show hyper consump-tion in stores to stock up on products. Food service sales have de-creased as educational institutions are closed at this time. Mozzarella and provolone cheese sales are mixed, due to some states in the re-gion having shortened restaurant operating hours, currently impact-ing restaurants like pizzerias. Cheese processing schedules are lighter in some plants, as numerous milk loads are clearing heavily to Class I. On the CME Group, cheddar cheese spot market activities are quiet so far this week. In the Northeast, the wholesale cheese prices for both cheddar and Muenster increased $0.0350. However, the process cheese prices dipped $0.0650. The Grade A Swiss price is unchanged at this time.

WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: DELIVERED DOLLARS PER POUND(MIXED LOTS (1000-5000 POUNDS))

Cheddar 40 pound Block 2.2500-2.5375 Muenster 2.2375-2.5875 Process American 5 pound Sliced 1.6100-2.0900 Swiss 10-14 pound Cuts 3.6100-3.9325

MIDWEST

Midwestern cheesemakers are reporting a variety of demand respons-es to the current coronavirus situation. If they are primarily a retail based operation, orders are very active. If they focus their production on food service/government related buying, they are slow. If they run both, then they are mixed. Regardless, they are busy. Milk remains discounted, from $2 to $6 under at this point in the week. However, some cheesemakers say bottlers are beginning to pull from milk sup-plies, diverting spot milk into bottling due to what contacts call the "toilet paper effect," wherein alongside toiletry items, grocery store shelves are being cleared of dietary staples such as milk, eggs and bread. Right now, markets are not changing direction in one way or the other this week. Regardless, there's a large spread on the CME block versus barrel spot prices. Midwestern wholesale prices are unchanged for Swiss cuts, down $.0650 for process, but up $.0350 for all other types.

WISCONSIN WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: DELIVERED DOLLARS PER POUND(MIXED LOTS (1000-5000 POUNDS))

Blue 5 pounds 2.4325-3.5025 Brick 5 pounds 2.1650-2.5900 Cheddar 40 pound Block 1.8875-2.2875 Monterey Jack 10 pounds 2.1400-2.3450 Mozzarella 5-6 pounds 1.9650-2.9100 Muenster 5 pounds 2.1650-2.5900 Process American 5 pound Loaf 1.5400-1.9000 Swiss 6-9 pound Cuts 3.1250-3.2425

WEST

In the West, demand for cheese is close to that of the prior week. While food chain orders are trending down, retailers' intakes have increased due to many end-users stocking up for later usage. Cheese processing continues on an active tone as milk is abundant in the West. Some cheese makers had to limit how many additional loads of milk they take because of limited processing capacities. Barrel cheese inventories are more available than block cheese. The cheese market activity is slower compared to the previous week. In the West, wholesale prices were down $.0650 for process, but up $.0350 for cheddar block, cuts and Monterey Jack. Swiss cut wholesale pric-es are unchanged from the previous week.

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WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: DELIVERED DOLLARS PER POUND(MIXED LOTS (1000-5000 POUNDS))

Cheddar 10 pound Cuts 2.1250-2.3250 Cheddar 40 pound Block 1.8775-2.3675 Monterey Jack 10 pounds 2.1125-2.3875 Process American 5 pound Loaf 1.5575-1.8125 Swiss 6-9 pound Cuts 3.2075-3.6375

FOREIGN TYPE

In Europe, the progressive outbreak of the coronavirus continues to disrupt the normal state of the cheese market. In the European Union, private households' consumptions of sliced cheese have recently ramped up as they stock up on provisions. This has resulted in in-creased cheese demands from food retailers. By contrast, buying inter-ests from large customers, such as hotels and restaurants, are down as people avoid public gatherings. International sales are unchanged. However, transportation costs are rising. Stocks of sliced cheese re-main low. Prices are inconsistent in the spot market. Additionally, sellers are requesting higher prices for long term contracts. U.S. do-mestic prices for blue, gorgonzola, parmesan, and Romano are up $.0350 compared to a week ago. All other cheese prices are stable.

WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: FOB DISTRIBUTORS DOCK DOLLARS PER POUND (1000 - 5000 POUNDS, MIXED LOTS)

: NEW YORK VARIETY : IMPORTED : DOMESTIC : : Blue : 2.6400-5.2300 : 2.3100-3.7975* Gorgonzola : 3.6900-5.7400 : 2.8175-3.5350* Parmesan : -0- : 3.6975-5.7875* Romano : -0- : 3.5000-5.6550* Sardo Romano (Argentina) : 2.8500-4.7800 : -0- Reggianito (Argentina) : 3.2900-4.7800 : -0- Jarlsberg : 2.9500-6.4500 : -0- Swiss : -0- : 3.6475-3.9700 Swiss (Finland) : 2.6700-2.9300 : -0-

= Price change.

COLD STORAGE

WEEKLY COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS - SELECTED STORAGE CENTERS IN THOUSAND POUNDS - INCLUDING GOVERNMENT STOCKS

: BUTTER CHEESE 03/16/2020 : 69905 : 75849 03/01/2020 : 73288 : 76387 CHANGE : -3383 : -538 % CHANGE : -5 : -1


Northeast farm milk output is fairly unchanged in comparison to last week. Class I sales are at extraordinary numbers as bottlers are pulling substantial loads of milk. Retail milk sales are healthy and growing with consumers purchasing additional grocery supplies in stores. Market participants relay milk is balanced in some operations as production schedules are comfortable. Mid-Atlantic milk production is slightly up. Manufacturing plants are limiting production as bottlers express higher demand for milk. Southeast milk production is climbing in the area. Class I sales have also been haywire this week. Educational institutions’ milk orders have been cut, but then bottlers are clearing extensive amounts of milk loads for retail needs. Florida milk output is still picking up. Class I sales are significantly higher at this time. Milk managers are working non-stop to place loads and work ahead of the current demand, however some industry contacts reply retail demand is overtaking milk inventories. Cream supplies have shortened up immensely in the East. Market participants report there is little to no cream around for spot sales. Cream multiples are ranging 1.10-1.20 currently. Some operations report if they had cream to sell, they would offer loads at higher price levels. Condensed skim markets are tightening up due to the strong Class I pull. Northeastern U.S., F.O.B. Condensed Skim Price Range - Class II; $/LB Solids: 0.80 - 1.00 Price Range - Class III; $/LB Solids: 0.70 - 0.90 Northeastern U.S., F.O.B. Cream Multiples Range - All Classes: 1.1000 - 1.2000 Price Range - Class II; $/LB Butterfat: 1.9971 - 2.1786

MIDWEST Milk production is steadily busy in the final days of winter. Some areas in the upper Midwest are expecting spats of rough winter weather, but only short lived until returning to mild/pleasant conditions for cows. This week has wrought a number of changes to the dairy industry and the world around it. Undoubtedly, food service orders for bottlers, cheesemakers and other dairy processors have nearly come to a halt. School districts throughout the country are expecting to remain closed until April at the earliest, while others are indefinitely closed. Naturally, those food service orders are quiet. That said, what contacts have deemed the "toilet paper effect," wherein customers are clearing the shelves in grocery stores of dietary and toiletry staples, including bread, eggs, milk, cheese, yogurt and butter, has sent retail ordering into new territory. Spot milk into bottling plants has increased across the country. Cheese plant managers are reporting similar discounts as last week. That said, some say prices are higher given the bottling pull, mentioned previously. Cream is heavy in supply. Butter churning is busy. Cream prices held above flat market in the Midwest, but Western multiples are falling and contacts do not expect Midwestern multiples to hold up much longer. As more milk enters bottling facilities, milk fat is being spun off and cream handlers are concerned about increasing supplies with only steady/lackluster demand. They expect ice cream producers to help out soon. Winter wheat crop reports are generally positive out of the southern portion of the region. In Texas, corn is being planted and ahead of last year by a good margin, as recent rains have helped instead of hindered planting. Price Range - Class III Milk; $/CWT; Spot Basis: -6.00 - -2.00 Trade Activity: Moderate

Midwestern U.S., F.O.B. Cream Multiples Range - All Classes: 1.0800 - 1.2000 Price Range - Class II; $/LB Butterfat: 2.1060 - 2.1786 Multiples Range - Class II: 1.1600 - 1.2000

WEST In California, the outbreak of covid-19 is not much affecting the supplies of milk. Several plant managers report having plenty of milk along with plant issues. Milk production is strong, and the spring flush started earlier this year. Industry contacts are wondering if milk volumes will peak sooner or lead to a longer, steeper peak flush. Despite the closing of most schools in the state, retail sales of milk have been increasing as households continue to secure enough milk for future use. As the result, Class I demand is a bit up. Some processors are limiting outlets for whole raw milk and are focusing on moving condensed skim out of the state. Milk yield is solid in Arizona. Sales are stable. Processing capacities are being fully utilized, and some producers are receiving unsolicited offers of milk. From time to time, they take a few loads if the price is affordable. In New Mexico, milk production and supplies have increased. Balancing needs are also higher despite increased milk intakes from Class I and Class III. Class II demands are stable to slightly lower. Repair and maintenance projects are affecting how many milk loads some plants can take. Like in most other states, milk demands from educational institutions have dropped, but were offset by increased intakes from retailers. So far, no major logistic issues have arisen. Milk production in the Pacific Northwest remains strong, but increases in overbase program penalties have helped level off mil. k intakes. Milk handlers report educational and food service milk sales have dried up, but there has been a surge in retail gallon demand as citizens stock up and hunker down amid the coronavirus pandemic. Most bottling and manufacturing facilities are running near capacity to keep up with the energized retail demand. Industry contacts say they have not experienced any issues with milk collection, transportation or processing, but are constantly monitoring the situation. In the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado, milk intakes are in better balance with consumer demand. Industry contacts report that strong Class I and Class II sales have helped rebalance milk supplies, at least for the moment. Milk production is still above processing capacity and some spot loads are getting pushed out of the region. But while spot milk loads are attainable, the volume of discounted loads is lower. Most manufacturers have told office workers to work from home in accordance with social distancing efforts. Western condensed skim sales are mostly steady, but continue to be less than expected for some processors. Finding spot buyers is challenging because many manufacturing plants are already full. Several plant managers are looking to sell condensed skim out of state to keep their supplies at comfortable levels. The cream market is balancing out in the West. Supplies are available to all buyers. Cream multiples for all Classes are a bit higher this week. Western U.S., F.O.B. Cream Multiples Range - All Classes: 1.0000 - 1.2000 Secondary Sourced Information: Milk pooled on the Pacific Northwest Order 124 totaled 649.4 million pounds in February 2020. Class I utilization accounted for 20.15 percent of producer milk. The uniform price was down $0.51 from last month, but $1.54 above the same month a year ago. Milk pooled on the Arizona Order 131 totaled 429.0 million pounds in February 2020. Class I utilization accounted for about 22.69 percent of producer milk. The uniform price was down $0.67 from last month, but $1.49 above the same month a year ago.

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EAST

FLUID MILK AND CREAM


NONFAT DRY MILK, BUTTERMILK & WHOLE MILK

Prices represent carlot/trucklot quantities for domestic and export sales packaged in 25 kg. or 50 lb. bags, or totes, spray process, dollars per pound.

NONFAT DRY MILK - CENTRAL AND EAST

CENTRAL: Nonfat dry milk, in low, medium and high heat varieties, saw prices tumble this week. CME market prices are weak. Spot trading in the region has yet to breech the sub $1 mark, but buyers say offers are increasing and that price point is expected. Additionally, customers are aware of the heavy amounts of condensed skim available. Undoubtedly, international and domestic trading has declined. Coronavirus concerns are stronger than ever and have affected many agricultural commodity markets. Chinese trading has reportedly slowed, but Mexican buyers, particularly, have trailed off in recent weeks. High heat NDM trading remains quiet, as prices slipped. The current question is not if markets are bearish, but how bearish they are and how long the bearishness will persist in light of the current pandemic. EAST: Low/medium nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are lower on both the range and mostly price series. Spot prices have dropped on various market exchanges this week. Buyers are purchasing loads at decreased prices this week. Manufacturers’ drying schedules were altered a bit as the demand for Class I outweighed other Class’ needs. There are reports inventory levels are available. Low/medium heat NDM market conditions continue to convey a volatile tone. High heat NDM prices are following suit and dropped on the range. A few manufacturers have scheduled drying time, however supplies are light in the region. Spot interest from the spring baking industry is picking up and is anticipated to progress. Prices for: Eastern and Central U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and Edible Nonfat Dry Milk Price Range - Low & Medium Heat; $/LB: 1.0350 - 1.1600 Mostly Range - Low & Medium Heat; $/LB: 1.0500 – 1.1000 Prices for: Eastern and Central U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and Edible Nonfat Dry Milk Price Range - High Heat; $/LB: 1.2000 - 1.3000

NONFAT DRY MILK - WEST

Due to the coronavirus crisis, the western low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) market is very ambivalent right now, while f.o.b. spot prices continue dipping. NDM contract values are also trending downward in the futures markets with prices rounding $1.00/lb for the rest of Q1/Q2. Albeit schools are closed, more raw milk loads are moving into Class I due to the robust retail demand driven by the coronavirus outbreak. Orders from Class II processors are ramping up, too. Consequently, less manufacturing milk volumes are balancing into Class IV. According to some contacts, NDM regular production schedules could be impacted soon due COVID-19 spread mitigation practices in some balancing plants. However, at this point, NDM production is still active, while NDM supplies are reported as adequate to meet contractual and spot needs. The overall demand for NDM is steady domestically, but is weakening internationally, particularly in Mexico. High heat NDM prices are falling in conjunction with low/medium heat NDM. Production is irregular, driven by contractual needs. Inventory levels vary from plant to plant. Prices for: Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and Edible Nonfat Dry Milk Price Range - Low & Medium Heat; $/LB: 0.9650 - 1.1650 Mostly Range - Low & Medium Heat; $/LB: 1.0500 - 1.1000 Prices for: Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and Edible Nonfat Dry Milk Price Range - High Heat; $/LB: 1.1500 - 1.3000

DRY BUTTERMILK - CENTRAL AND EAST

CENTRAL: The dry buttermilk price range expanded in the Central region. Contacts say even with soft markets outside of buttermilk, buttermilk powder markets are smaller and less affected at this point. Supplies are still in balance, and producers are busy handling the condensed skim loads which have been widely available in recent weeks/months. Still, with all the uncertainty in other markets, contacts are not expecting buttermilk powder markets to hold up for long. If nonfat dry milk markets continue to fall, eventually buttermilk powder will follow suit. EAST: Dry buttermilk prices are mixed. Current demand is stable to a bit weak in the East. There are a few buyers sourcing for loads and receiving LTLs at middle of the range prices. Some manufacturers are offering on the spot market, however, other operations are not drying buttermilk at all and have no loads available for spot interest. Milk volumes are reduced in some operations at this time. Supplies are fairly balanced in the region. Prices for: Eastern and Central U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Conventional, and Edible Buttermilk Price Range ; $/LB: 1.0600 - 1.1900

DRY BUTTERMILK - WEST In the West region, free on board spot prices for dry buttermilk moved lower, in line with regional NDM downtick pricing movements. Due to the coronavirus, uncertainty in terms of supply/demand prevails in the market. However, most balancing plants have been able to handle large amounts of buttermilk, remnants of active regional butter churning. Good portions of these buttermilk volumes have been clearing into ice cream making, while the rest has been dried. As a result, dry buttermilk production has been intermittent, but supplies are reported as accessible for contracts and immediate needs. Demands from bakers are reported as fair/good. Prices for: Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Conventional, and Edible Buttermilk Price Range ; $/LB: 1.0800 - 1.1600 Mostly Range - ; $/LB: 1.1200 - 1.1400

DRY WHOLE MILK - U.S. The coronavirus effect is starting to take a toll on the national dry whole milk spot market as cash prices shifted down during the current week. Like other dairy ingredients, the uncertainty about COVID-19 is triggering much uncertainty across the entire milk powder market. Some buyers are holding spot purchases, waiting to see a clearer picture of the market. Most trades are driven by contractual requirements, thus, sales in the spot market have been generally lethargic throughout the week. Drying schedules for condensed whole milk are intermittent and mostly driven by contractual requirements, while inventories are steady to slightly building. Prices for: U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Conventional, and Edible Dry Whole Milk Price Range - 26% Butterfat; $/LB: 1.6000 - 1.8000

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WHEY, WPC 34%, LACTOSE & CASEIN Prices represent carlot/trucklot quantities for domestic and export sales packaged in 25 kg. or 50 lb. bags, or totes, spray process, dollars per pound.

DRY WHEY- CENTRAL Dry whey prices in the Central region shifted slightly lower on the top of the range and mostly series. Some contacts say, when in relation to other dairy powder markets (namely NDM), the slight declines on dry whey price changes could be worse. There plenty of milk for all uses, but scheduled maintenance and/or plant shutdowns related to the current coronavirus may keep extra whey production at bay. Regardless, buyers and end users say offers are incoming. Contacts suggest higher protein blends, such as WPC 80% and WPI, are softening. With that, the entire whey complex, and essentially all dairy powder markets, are on shaky grounds. Animal feed whey prices slipped, falling in line with edible dry whey. Prices for: Central U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Conventional, and Non-Edible Dry Whey Price Range - Animal Feed; $/LB: .2800 - .3000 Prices for: Central U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and Edible Dry Whey Price Range - Non-Hygroscopic; $/LB: .3200 - .3800 Mostly Range - Non-Hygroscopic; $/LB: .3400 - .3600

DRY WHEY-NORTHEAST Dry whey prices have tightened in the East region. Trading activities are fairly healthy in the spot market, as domestic and international buyers are purchasing on various market exchanges. There are buyers who are also adequate with their inventory levels and are not purchasing on the market. Dry whey production is steady to a bit slower this week as the demand for Class I has skyrocketed. Manufacturers’ dry whey supplies are available for their customers’ needs. Prices for: Eastern U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and Edible Dry Whey Price Range - Non-Hygroscopic; $/LB: .3400 - .4075

DRY WHEY-WEST

In the West, dry whey prices have increased at the bottom of the range, while remaining stable anywhere else. The market tone is mostly flat this week. However, many industry participants are avoiding big decisions because of increasing market uncertainty. Processors are following safety guidelines to avoid the spreading of the coronavirus. While dry whey sales are unchanged from the previous week, output is steady to a bit lower as a few manufacturers shift their production focus to higher protein concentrations. Dry whey stocks are mostly balanced. Prices for: Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade & Grade A, Conventional, and Edible Dry Whey Price Range - Non-Hygroscopic; $/LB: .2925 - .4100 Mostly Range - Non-Hygroscopic; $/LB: .3500 - .3900

WHEY PROTEIN CONCENTRATE

The whey protein concentrate 34% price range and mostly price series both expanded this week as WPC 34% market segments diverged. Manufacturers that make WPC 34% for infant formula, and other applications with tight end user specifications, report many of their customers are asking for more loads. In some cases, buyers are willing to pay cash in advance of shipments to guarantee sales. Inventories are balanced to tight. WPC 34% production is steady.

However, WPC 34% in some other market segments is facing headwinds. Economic uncertainties are making it more difficult for manufacturers to sell WPC 34% at prices above nonfat dry milk or other protein alternatives. Market tones for WPC 34% that is interchangeable with these other protein sources have the same unsettled feeling. Prices for: Central and Western U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Extra Grade, Conventional, and Edible Whey Protein Concentrate Price Range - 34% Protein; $/LB: .9200 - 1.1900 Mostly Range - 34% Protein; $/LB: .9450 - 1.0850

LACTOSE Lactose prices are unchanged. Dairy industry contacts state that while uncertainty has eroded prices for other commodities, the market tone for lactose is firm. Manufacturers say they continue to get inquiries from buyers looking for available loads. Demand from infant formula buyers and domestic markets is especially strong. Processors say infant formula lactose is rushing out the door. Inventories at most locations are highly committed. Some manufacturers comment that they wish they had more spot loads available to meet the onrush of demand. They suggest prices for additional spot loads would approach the top of the published price range. Lactose production is active and steady. Prices for: Central and Western U.S., Spot Sales And Up to 3 Month Contracts, F.O.B., Conventional, and Edible Lactose Price Range - Non Pharmaceutical; $/LB: .2400 - .4200 Mostly Range - Non Pharmaceutical; $/LB: .2800 - .3400

CASEIN Rennet casein prices are higher. Buyers seeking rennet casein for May and beyond are facing seasonally declining availability, thus contributing to contracting price pressure. Acid casein prices are steady. Although milk production is moving up in Western Europe and down in Oceania, the offsetting volumes do not evenly translate for all customers into milk available for casein production. Some buyers have strong sourcing preferences for either Oceania or Western Europe. Thus, price movements may reflect the influence of one region or the other, rather than purely a blend of factors. Impacts of coronavirus are challenging to assess. As China is not the dominant casein customer for either region, direct impacts on casein exports tend to be less than with other dairy powders. Effects on casein are more secondary, such as interest or ability of manufacturers to schedule casein production time. As most current deliveries were contracted before the eruption of coronavirus concerns, price impacts tend to be for future period contract deliveries. Prices for: Spot Sales And Up to 3 Month Contracts, Free on Board - Warehouse, Non-Restricted, All Mesh Sizes, Conventional, and Edible Casein Acid; Price Range - $/LB: 3.6275-3.8450 Rennet; Price Range - $/LB: 4.4675-4.5850

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16- 20, 2020 -7- VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter (1000 head) under Federal Inspection

2020 WEEKLY 2020 2019 WEEKLY 2019 WEEK ENDING DAIRY COWS CUMULATIVE DAIRY COWS DAIRY COWS CUMULATIVE DAIRY COWS 02/29/2020 63.6 586.5 71.5 604.2 WEBSITE: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sj_ls714.txt SOURCE: The slaughter data are gathered and tabulated in a cooperative effort by the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Food Safety and Inspection Service, and the National Agricultural Statistics Service, all of USDA

FEDERAL MILK ORDER CLASS III MILK PRICES (3.5% Butterfat)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2015 16.18 15.46 15.56 15.81 16.19 16.72 16.33 16.27 15.82 15.46 15.30 14.44 2016 13.72 13.80 13.74 13.63 12.76 13.22 15.24 16.91 16.39 14.82 16.76 17.40 2017 16.77 16.88 15.81 15.22 15.57 16.44 15.45 16.57 16.36 16.69 16.88 15.44 2018 14.00 13.40 14.22 14.47 15.18 15.21 14.10 14.95 16.09 15.53 14.44 13.78 2019 13.96 13.89 15.04 15.96 16.38 16.27 17.55 17.60 18.31 18.72 20.45 19.37

FEDERAL MILK ORDER CLASS IV MILK PRCES (3.5% Butterfat)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2015 13.23 13.82 13.80 13.51 13.91 13.90 13.15 12.90 15.08 16.43 16.89 15.52 2016 13.31 13.49 12.74 12.68 13.09 13.77 14.84 14.65 14.25 13.66 13.76 14.97 2017 16.19 15.59 14.32 14.01 14.49 15.89 16.60 16.61 15.86 14.85 13.99 13.51 2018 13.13 12.87 13.04 13.48 14.57 14.91 14.14 14.63 14.81 15.01 15.06 15.09 2019 15.48 15.86 15.71 15.72 16.29 16.83 16.90 16.74 16.35 16.39 16.60 16.70

FEDERAL MILK ORDER CLASS PRICES FOR 2020 (3.5% Butterfat)

CLASS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC I (BASE) 19.01 17.55 17.46 16.64 II 17.05 16.84 III 17.05 17.00 IV 16.65 16.20

Further information may be found at: https://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/mmr/dmr

NATIONAL DAIRY PRODUCTS SALES REPORT

U.S. AVERAGES AND TOTAL POUNDS

WEEK ENDING 03/14/2020

BUTTER

1.8270 3,985,572

CHEESE 40# BLOCKS

1.8007 11,510,252

CHEESE BARRELS 38% MOISTURE

1.6007 11,041,340

DRY WHEY

.3710 5,842,416

NDM

1.1632 20,057,552

Further data and revisions may be found on the internet at: http://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/mmr/dmr

CME GROUP, INC FUTURES

Selected settling prices CLASS III MILK FUTURES (Pit-Traded) ($/cwt)

DATE 03/13 03/16 03/17 03/18 03/19 MAR 20 16.34 16.36 16.33 16.32 16.27 APR 20 15.90 16.00 15.99 15.67 16.01 MAY 20 15.78 15.59 15.47 15.06 15.20

CLASS IV MILK FUTURES (Pit-Traded) ($/cwt)

DATE 03/13 03/16 03/17 03/18 03/19 MAR 20 15.11 15.08 15.04 14.89 14.89 APR 20 14.75 14.46 14.10 13.52 14.01 MAY 20 14.75 14.41 13.88 13.13 13.88

CASH SETTLED BUTTER FUTURES (Electronic-Traded) (¢/lb)

DATE 03/13 03/16 03/17 03/18 03/19 MAR 20 179.95 178.28 178.00 177.00 188.88 APR 20 184.00 179.03 177.15 169.25 174.25 MAY 20 185.75 181.50 177.05 169.08 174.08

NONFAT DRY MILK FUTURES (Pit-Traded) (¢/lb) DATE 03/13 03/16 03/17 03/18 03/19 MAR 20 112.00 112.00 111.28 110.75 112.50 APR 20 106.25 103.40 101.28 98.60 99.00 MAY 20 104.73 102.05 98.73 94.20 96.03

WHEY (Electronic-Traded) (¢/lb)

DATE 03/13 03/16 03/17 03/18 03/19 MAR 20 37.10 37.10 37.00 37.00 36.90 APR 20 36.25 35.70 35.70 36.00 35.75 MAY 20 35.20 34.43 34.18 33.93 34.10

CHEESE CSC (Electronic-Traded) ($/lb)

DATE 03/13 03/16 03/17 03/18 03/19 MAR 20 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 APR 20 1.68 1.69 1.69 1.66 1.69 MAY 20 1.67 1.66 1.64 1.60 1.61

Further information may be found at: http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/daily-bulletin.html

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16-20, 2020 VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS Information gathered March 9-20 , 2020

ORGANIC DAIRY FLUID OVERVIEW

New England Organic Milk Sales and Sourcing. Federal Milk Market Order 1, in New England, reports utilization of types of organic milk by pool plants. During February 2020, organic whole milk utilization totaled 13.6 million pounds, up from 12.6 million pounds the previous year. The February 2020 butterfat content was 3.29 percent, slightly more than the 3.28 percent in 2019. The utilization of organic reduced fat milk for February this year, nearly 13.1 million pounds, dropped from 15.1 million pounds a year earlier. Meanwhile, butterfat content was 1.36 percent, up from 1.33 percent last year. Surge in Organic Milk Sales. Milk loads to Class I bottling depict exponential growth, up 200 percent for some locations. As the coronavirus gives rise to a global pandemic and panic shopping, demand for organic milk as well as conventional milk has skyrocketed, with consumers at times finding dairy cases empty in retail store outlets. Organic Fluid and Food Markets to Expand. A marketing research group has reported that organic drink and food markets are expected to achieve $38.77 billion in annual sales, with a growth rate of 10.2 percent by 2026. While organic milk looks to dominate the market, the fastest growing segment is projected to be organic cheese. North America is anticipated to hold the largest global market share. Average Organic Milk Pay Prices in Europe. The January organic milk pay price in Europe adjusted higher in Germany and Bavaria but declined in France and Austria. Detailed information is presented in the table below. euros/100lt *($USD) % Change % Change Jan 2020 Dec 2019 Germany 47.59 51.05 + 0.68 + 0.06 Bavaria 47.98 51.47 + 0.82 + 0.04 France 48.41 51.93 - 0.57 + 3.81 Austria 42.47 45.56 - 1.21 - 4.00 Dutch Organic Milk Pay Price. In the Netherlands, a large processor of organic milk announced the March 2020 pay price for organic milk is 48.50 euros/100kg (* $52.03 USD). The organic milk producer supplies an average of 550,000 kilograms of milk, containing a fat content of 4.42 percent, protein content of 3.57 percent and a lactose content of 4.53 percent, on an annual basis.

* As of 3/20/2020 8:00 AM

ORGANIC GRAIN FEEDSTUFF OVERVIEW

National Organic Grain and Feed Markets. Feed grade corn trade activity and demand is light. Markets are too lightly traded to trend, with cash bids mostly 7.00-7.65 delivered elevator. Feed grade Soybean trades are light on modest to good demand. Forward contracting is at steady levels. Transactions were inactive on all other organic grains.

For more additional information, access the link: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lsbnof.pdf

Increase in Organic Field Crops Acreages. A new report shows that certified organic field crop acreages grew by 13 percent in the U.S. through 2019. As well, the market flourished behind a 14 percent vault in the number of certified organic field crop operations. While the number of acres of organic corn harvested was down the previous year, industry representatives envision organic field crop production moving quickly into the mainstream of agriculture

ORGANIC DAIRY RETAIL OVERVIEW This week, organic milk accounts for 61% of organic dairy retail ad numbers by commodity, but posted a 9% decline compared to the last period. The retail milk price spread between conventional and organic half gallon milk is $2.37. Regionally, the number of organic milk ads were higher in the Northeast and Southwest. Retail ads for organic cheese and yogurt changed 182% and minus 21%, respectively. Overall, organic butter in, one-pound packaging, posted the largest change in ad volume, up 133% over the previous period. Organic sour cream in 16-ounce packaging followed, increasing 113 percent. The following pie chart shows the ad percentage for organic milk declined from the last retail report and displays the percentages of all organic dairy commodities detailed in the ad survey.

Data source: USDA Dairy Market News Advertising information presented is compiled from nearly 23,000 surveyed newspaper supermarket ads. Prices are valid from March 13-19, 2020. Retail survey ads reflect “advertised specials” and not the range of non-advertised supermarket cooler prices.

-CONTINUED ON PAGE 8A-

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DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16-20, 2020 VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS Information gathered March 9-20 , 2020

-CONTINUED FROM PAGE 8-

Product pricing information of selected organic dairy commodities, from the current weekly retail survey, is presented in the following table:

NATIONAL RETAIL ORGANIC DAIRY WEIGHTED AVERAGE ADVERTISED PRICE

This Last Last Week Week Year COMMODITY Butter $5.70 $5.29 $5.29 Cream Cheese $2.50 $2.50 $3.99 Milk Half Gal. $3.82 $3.99 $4.35 Gallon $5.00 $6.87 $6.62 8 oz.UHT n.a. $1.25 $0.96 Yogurt 4-6 oz. Greek n.a. $1.25 n.a. 32 oz. Greek n.a. $3.99 n.a. 4-6 oz. Yogurt $1.00 $1.79 $0.58 32 oz. Yogurt $3.49 n.a. $3.99 Data source: USDA Dairy Market News

-8A-


February Milk Production

Milk production in the 24 major States during February totaled 17.0 billion pounds, up 5.6 Percent from February 2019. However, adjusting production for the additional day due to leap year causes February milk production to be up 2.0 percent on a per day basis. January revised production, at 18.0 billion pounds, was up 1.5 percent from January 2019. The January revision represented an increase of 38 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 1,927 pounds for February, 94 pounds above February 2019. When production is adjusted for the additional day due to leap year, February production per cow is 27 pounds above February 2019 on a per day basis. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.84 million head, 39,000 head more than February 2019, and 8,000 head more than January 2020

February 2020 Milk Cows and Milk Production, by States

State Milk Cows 1 Milk per Cow 2 Milk Production 2

2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 Change from

2019 (thousands) (pounds) (million pounds) (percent)

AZ 202 196 1,960 2,075 396 407 2.8 CA 1,726 1,723 1,860 1,980 3,210 3,412 6.3 CO 182 193 1,990 2,090 362 403 11.3 FL 116 116 1,700 1,785 197 207 5.1 GA 82 82 1,800 1,880 148 154 4.1 ID 618 645 1,875 1,965 1,159 1,267 9.3

IL 85 82 1,690 1,770 144 145 0.7 IN 181 176 1,770 1,870 320 329 2.8 IA 220 215 1,890 1,965 416 422 1.4 KS 163 169 1,795 1,895 293 320 9.2 MI 424 427 2,055 2,135 871 912 4.7 MN 450 445 1,700 1,785 765 794 3.8

NM 322 333 1,970 2,025 634 674 6.3 NY 627 626 1,840 1,945 1,154 1,218 5.5 OH 253 253 1,660 1,760 420 445 6.0 OR 124 127 1,595 1,645 198 209 5.6 PA 500 483 1,605 1,725 803 833 3.7 SD 124 128 1,725 1,815 214 232 8.4

TX 553 585 1,910 2,000 1,056 1,170 10.8 UT 99 96 1,755 1,810 174 174 --- VT 126 124 1,665 1,725 210 214 1.9 VA 78 76 1,545 1,670 121 127 5.0 WA 278 282 1,815 1,930 505 544 7.7 WI 1,270 1,260 1,860 1,925 2,362 2,426 2.7

24 State Total 8,803 8,842 1,833 1.927 16,132 17,038 5.6

1 Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Service. Agricultural Statistics Board. Milk Production, (March 2020).

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16 – 20, 2020 -10- VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

April 2020 Highlights

Base Class I Price: The base Class I price for April 2020 is $16.64 per cwt, a decrease of $0.82 per cwt when compared to March 2020. A Class I differential for each order's principle pricing point (county) is added to the base price to determine the Class I Price.

Class II Price Information: For April 2020, the advanced Class IV skim milk pricing factor is $8.85 per cwt, the Class II skim milk price is $9.55 per cwt, and the Class II nonfat solids price is $1.0611 per pound.

Product Price Averages: The two-week product price averages for April 2020 are: butter $1.7767, nonfat dry milk $1.1609, cheese $1.7346, and dry whey $0.3729.

Advanced Class Prices by Order for April 2020 Federal Milk Order Class I Price Information 1, 2

Federal Milk Order Marketing Area 3

Order Number

Apr 2020 Class I Class I Class I Price Skim Milk Butterfat

(3.5%) Price 4 Price (dollars per cwt) (dollars per cwt) (dollars per pound) Northeast (Boston) 001 19.89 13.44 1.9764 Appalachian (Charlotte) 005 20.04 13.59 1.9779 Florida (Tampa) 006 22.04 15.59 1.9979 Southeast (Atlanta) 007 20.44 13.99 1.9819 Upper Midwest (Chicago) 030 18.44 11.99 1.9619 Central (Kansas City) 032 18.64 12.19 1.9639 Mideast (Cleveland) 033 18.64 12.19 1.9639 California (Los Angeles) 051 18.74 12.29 1.9649 Pacific Northwest (Seattle) 124 18.54 12.09 1.9629 Southwest (Dallas) 126 19.64 13.19 1.9739 Arizona (Phoenix) 131 18.99 12.54 1.9674 All-Market Average 19.46 13.01 1.9721

1 To convert the Class I price per 100 pounds to the Class I price per gallon, divide by 11.63 - the approximate number of gallons in 100 pounds of milk. 2 The mandatory $0.20 per cwt processor assessment under the Fluid Milk Promotion Order is not included in the Class I prices shown in this table. 3 Names in parentheses are the major city in the principal pricing point of the markets. 4 Please see the Advanced Prices and Pricing Factors Announcement: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dymadvancedprices.pdf.

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16 – 20, 2020 -11- VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

Mailbox Milk Prices for Selected Reporting Areas

in Federal Milk Orders and California, Revised 2018 Annual Averages, with Comparisons 1

In 2018, mailbox milk prices for selected reporting areas in Federal milk orders averaged $15.72 per cwt., $1.59 lower than 2017. The component tests of producer milk in 2018 averaged: butterfat, 3.88 percent; protein, 3.15 percent; and other solids, 5.76 percent.

Reporting Area 2 Mailbox Milk Prices 3

2017 2018 Difference (dollars per hundredweight)

New England States 4 18.65 16.97 -1.68

New York 17.46 15.84 -1.62

Eastern Pennsylvania 5 17.39 15.59 -1.80

Appalachian States 6 18.09 16.28 -1.81

Southeast States 7 17.55 16.18 -1.37

Southern Missouri 8 17.43 16.14 -1.29

Florida 18.96 17.74 -1.22

Western Pennsylvania 9 17.71 *15.78 *-1.93

Ohio 17.61 15.64 -1.97

Indiana 17.02 15.16 -1.86

Michigan 15.59 14.17 -1.42

Wisconsin 17.95 16.27 -1.68

Minnesota 17.56 16.21 -1.35

Iowa 17.69 16.26 -1.43

Illinois 17.94 16.28 -1.66

Corn Belt States 10 16.43 14.79 -1.64

Western Texas 11 16.77 15.38 -1.39

New Mexico 15.24 13.78 -1.46

Northwest States 12 17.59 16.24 -1.35

All Federal Order Areas 13 17.31 *15.72 *-1.59

California 14 16.19 15.10 15 -1.09 * Revised 1 Net pay price received by dairy farmers for milk. Includes all payments received for milk sold and all costs associated with marketing the milk. Price is a weighted average for the reporting area and is reported at the average butterfat test. Mailbox price does not include any Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) payments. Mailbox price does include, for the most part, the assessment under the Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program. 2 Information is shown for those areas for which prices are reported for at least 75 percent of the milk marketed under Federal milk orders. The price shown is the weighted average of the prices reported for all orders that received milk from that area. 3 Figures are annual averages -- the weighted average of the monthly figures. 4 Includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. 5 All counties to the east of those listed in footnote 9. 6 Includes Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. 7 Includes Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi. 8 The counties Vernon, Cedar, Polk, Dallas, Laclede, Texas, Dent, Crawford, Washington, St. Francois, and Perry, and all those to the south of these. 9 The counties of Warren, Elk, Clearfield, Indiana, Westmoreland, and Fayette, and all those counties to the west of these. 10 Includes Kansas, Nebraska, and the Missouri counties to the north of those listed in footnote 8. 11 All counties to the west of Fanin, Hunt, Van Zandt, Henderson, Houston, Cherokee, Nacogdoches, and Shelby. 12 Includes Oregon and Washington. 13 Weighted average of prices for all reporting areas (excluding California in November and December 2018). 14 The California Federal Milk Marketing Order became effective on November 1, 2018. Prior to November 2018, the CA mailbox price was calculated by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA). The California Order’s average mailbox prices for November and December 2018 are not yet available. 15 This is the CDFA weighted average mailbox price for January through October 2018.

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 16 – 20, 2020 -G1- VOLUME 87, REPORT 12

* Beginning with May 2019, data represents 24 major states, with the addition of Georgia to the major states tracked.

8.55

8.60

8.65

8.70

8.75

8.80

8.85

8.90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MILLION HEAD

DATA SOURCE, USDA, NASS; GRAPH, USDA, AMS, DMN

Milk Cow Numbers - 24 Selected States

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

BILLION POUNDS

DATA SOURCE, USDA, NASS; GRAPH, USDA, AMS, DMNNOTE FEB DATA FOR 2016 ADJUSTED TO 28 DAY EQUIVALENT

Milk Production - 24 Selected States

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1 -- Dairy Market News surveys nearly 150 retailers, comprising over 23,000 individual stores, with online weekly advertised features.

Dairy Market News Branch

AgriculturalMarketingService

National Retail Report-DairyWebsites: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home and http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dybretail.pdf

Volume 87- Number 12 Issued Weekly Friday, March 20, 2020

Advertised Prices for Dairy Products at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets ending during the period of 03/20/2020 to 03/26/2020

This week, adjustments resulting from the onset of cov-19 has caused several stores to not post online dairy product advertisements. Therefore, the data used in this survey of retail store advertisements are less than usual and may not fully reflect current market conditions.

The total number of dairy product advertisements decreased 11 percent for conventional, while the ones for organic declined 6 percent. The number of ads for conventional 1 pound butter increased by 8 percent, while the ads for organic butter went up by 133 percent. The weighted average price for conventional 1 pound butter packages is $3.03, compared to $5.70 for organic 1 pound butter packages.

The national weighted average advertised price for conventional milk in half gallons is $1.45, compared to $3.82 for organic milk half gallons, resulting in an organic premium of $2.37. Conventional milk ads increased by 38 percent, but organic milk ads decreased by 21 percent. Milk in half gallons are the most advertised organic item this week.

The total number of ads for conventional yogurt decrease by 21 percent, whereas organic yogurt ads increased by 51 percent. The weighted average advertised price for yogurt in 4-6 ounce containers is $0.52 for conventional, compared to $1.00 for organic, resulting in an organic premium of $.48.

The total number of ads for conventional cheese dropped 12 percent, but organic cheese ads climbed 182 percent. The weighted average price for conventional 8 ounce shred cheese is $2.43 and $3.50 for organic, representing an organic premium of $1.07.

http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dybretail.pdf

National Retail Report - Dairy Vol 87 - No. 12Friday, March 20, 2020 - Page 2

Wtd Avg - Simple weighted average

Yogurt Cheese Ice cream Sour cream Butter

Sto

res

with

Ads

0K

5K

10K

15K

20K

25K

30K

03/20/2020 03/13/2020 03/06/2020

Top 5 Commodities Featured This Week



Butter, 6%

Cheese, 23%

Cottage cheese, 6%

Cream cheese, 6%

Flavored milk, 2%Ice cream, 15%

Milk, 2%

Sour cream, 9%

Yogurt, 25%

Percentage of Total Conventional Ads by Commodity

Butter, 8%

Cheese, 6%

Cream cheese, 3%

Milk, 61%

Sour cream, 7%

Yogurt, 15%

Percentage of Total Organic Ads by Commodity



NATIONAL -- CONVENTIONAL DAIRY PRODUCTS

Commodity Type Pack Size

THIS PERIOD LAST WEEK LAST YEAR

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 4456 3.03 4144 3.57 3597 3.57

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 4609 2.44 5514 2.33 6341 2.33

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # block 1504 4.75 1299 4.32 2301 4.12

Cheese Natural Varieties 2 # block 1495 6.31 379 6.98 1042 6.01

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 7388 2.43 8689 2.43 11891 2.22

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # shred 826 4.76 2193 4.69 1744 3.76

Cottage cheese 16 oz 4190 1.93 5102 2.16 2774 1.96

Cream cheese 8 oz 4180 2.09 3149 2.00 5116 1.97

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 926 2.45 583 3.03 401 2.16

Flavored milk All fat tests gallon 509 3.47 496 3.83 318 2.66

Ice cream 48-64oz 10028 3.08 12536 3.07 7813 2.92

Milk All fat tests half gallon 702 1.45 561 2.39 1304 1.85

Milk All fat tests gallon 715 3.72 464 2.84 1073 2.88

Sour cream 16 oz 6018 1.86 6059 1.94 5619 1.71

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 8382 .97 9913 .95 9475 .95

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 3713 3.60 4293 3.98 3033 3.86

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 2200 .52 6144 .55 4194 .49

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 2545 2.56 1181 2.48 645 2.38

REGIONAL -- CONVENTIONAL DAIRY PRODUCTS


NORTHEAST U.S. SOUTHEAST U.S. MIDWEST U.S.

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 2.49-4.99 1450 3.47 1.99-3.48 911 2.91 1.99-3.49 874 2.36

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 1.67-3.49 1306 2.56 1.88-3.00 1508 2.50 1.79-2.50 793 2.27

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # block 3.99-4.69 272 4.34 3.49-4.99 1032 4.90

Cheese Natural Varieties 2 # block 5.99 84 5.99 6.98 195 6.98 5.99 331 5.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 1.99-3.50 2644 2.42 1.88-3.00 1641 2.52 1.79-2.50 1170 2.37

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # shred 4.99 135 4.99 3.49-4.99 628 4.84

Cottage cheese 16 oz 2.00-2.50 1371 2.19 2.00-3.00 1491 2.15 1.00-1.50 819 1.22

Cream cheese 8 oz 1.49-4.29 1681 2.35 1.50-2.00 1439 1.82 2.00-3.00 329 2.35

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 1.29-2.50 521 1.80

Flavored milk All fat tests gallon 2.99-4.99 393 3.91

Ice cream 48-64oz 1.99-5.99 3127 3.14 1.99-5.98 2217 2.90 2.49-4.00 2006 2.99

Milk All fat tests half gallon 1.50 114 1.50 0.88-1.50 476 1.26

Milk All fat tests gallon 3.49 135 3.49 2.99 213 2.99

Sour cream 16 oz 1.50-2.49 2168 1.95 1.25-3.00 2688 2.03 1.00-1.58 942 1.27

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 0.78-1.33 2646 .96 0.99-1.00 2528 1.00 0.83-1.00 1013 .98

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 3.47-4.99 624 3.83 3.47-3.50 1173 3.47 4.99 180 4.99





Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 0.25-0.69 857 .50 0.50 64 .50 0.50-0.60 360 .55

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 2.00-3.50 961 2.95 2.00-2.99 1216 2.17


SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHWEST U.S.

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 1.99-3.50 306 2.50 1.99-2.99 425 2.64 2.50-3.99 455 3.79

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 2.00-2.49 224 2.23 1.67-2.99 477 2.46 1.69-2.99 256 2.17

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # block 3.49-4.99 200 4.52

Cheese Natural Varieties 2 # block 5.99 78 5.99 5.99-7.99 643 6.51 4.99 105 4.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 1.89-3.00 881 2.34 1.67-3.00 489 2.35 1.69-2.69 479 2.37

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # shred 3.49 63 3.49

Cottage cheese 16 oz 1.00 116 1.00 1.69-1.99 358 1.93

Cream cheese 8 oz 2.00 55 2.00 1.67-1.99 480 1.75 1.49-1.50 130 1.49

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 1.50 116 1.50 3.99 289 3.99

Flavored milk All fat tests gallon 1.99 105 1.99

Ice cream 48-64oz 2.49-5.29 1035 3.68 2.49-3.99 1191 2.98 2.49-3.00 356 2.73

Milk All fat tests half gallon 0.99 78 .99

Milk All fat tests gallon 7.99 114 7.99 2.98 137 2.98 1.99 105 1.99

Sour cream 16 oz 1.00 116 1.00 1.69 69 1.69

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 0.89-1.00 481 .94 0.79-1.00 980 .88 0.88-1.00 568 .96

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 3.47 973 3.47 3.47 344 3.47 3.39-3.47 419 3.41

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 0.45-0.49 331 .48 0.49 90 .49 0.50-0.60 471 .56

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 2.00 74 2.00 2.99 246 2.99


ALASKA U.S. HAWAII U.S.

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 2.99 11 2.99 3.99 24 3.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 1.99 11 1.99 2.75 34 2.75

Cheese Natural Varieties 2 # block 5.99 32 5.99 7.99 27 7.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 1.99-5.00 50 3.79 2.75 34 2.75

Cottage cheese 16 oz 1.25 11 1.25 2.50 24 2.50

Cream cheese 8 oz 2.49-4.50 39 3.93 2.50 27 2.50

Flavored milk All fat tests gallon 1.89 11 1.89

Ice cream 48-64oz 2.49 11 2.49 3.00-3.99 85 3.44

Milk All fat tests half gallon 4.99 34 4.99

Milk All fat tests gallon 1.89 11 1.89

Sour cream 16 oz 1.25 11 1.25 2.00 24 2.00

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 0.79-1.67 81 1.24 0.99-1.29 85 1.18

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 0.99 27 .99

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 2.99 21 2.99 3.49 27 3.49



NATIONAL -- ORGANIC DAIRY PRODUCTS


THIS PERIOD LAST WEEK LAST YEAR

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 282 5.70 121 5.29 108 5.29

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 106 5.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 114 3.50 78 3.00

Cottage cheese 16 oz 289 3.99 161 3.99

Cream cheese 8 oz 121 2.50 121 2.50 298 2.99

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 116 4.79

Milk All fat tests half gallon 2090 3.82 2192 3.99 3735 4.35

Milk All fat tests gallon 105 5.00 428 6.87 562 6.62

Milk All fat tests 8 oz UHT 147 1.25 277 .96

Sour cream 16 oz 258 2.34 121 2.19 161 2.99

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 147 1.25

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 62 3.99

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 108 1.00 137 1.79 72 .58

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 416 3.49 59 3.99

REGIONAL -- ORGANIC DAIRY PRODUCTS



Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 5.49 161 5.49

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 5.99 106 5.99

Milk All fat tests half gallon 3.49-4.99 1116 4.03 3.99 214 3.99 3.00 339 3.00

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 1.00 108 1.00

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 3.49-3.50 416 3.49




SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHWEST U.S.

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 5.99 121 5.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 3.50 114 3.50

Cream cheese 8 oz 2.50 121 2.50

Milk All fat tests half gallon 2.99-4.99 421 3.84

Milk All fat tests gallon 5.00 105 5.00

Sour cream 16 oz 2.19 121 2.19 2.48 137 2.48


ALASKA U.S. HAWAII U.S.

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

REGIONAL DEFINITIONS

As used in this report, regions include the following states:

NORTHEAST U.S. Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Hampshire, New jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont

SOUTHEAST U.S. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West VirginiaMIDWEST U.S. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and WisconsinSOUTH CENTRAL U.S. Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and TexasSOUTHWEST U.S. Arizona, California, Nevada and UtahNORTHWEST U.S. Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and WyomingALASKA AlaskaHAWAII HawaiiNATIONAL Continental United States

USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer

Dairy Market News United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Marketing Service Dairy Programs Market Information Branch

Volume 87, Report 12 March 20, 2020

GENERAL NUMBER (608) 422-8587 Elizabeth Frederick (608) 422-8587 [email protected]

ORGANIC/ EAST Daniel Johnson (608) 422-8605 [email protected]

EAST Jessica Mueller (608) 422-8589 [email protected]

CENTRAL Israel Weber (608) 422-8601 [email protected]

SOUTHWEST/SOUTH AMERICA AJ (Angel José) Terán (608) 422-8593 Angel.Terá[email protected]

SOUTHWEST Florence Kone-Gonzalez (608) 422-8594 [email protected]

NORTHWEST/MOUNTAIN Mike Bandli (608) 422-8592 [email protected]

EUROPE/OCEANIA Eric Graf (608) 422-8590 [email protected]

DEPUTY DIRECTOR, DAIRY MARKET NEWS

Janet Linder (608) 422-8588 [email protected] DIRECTOR, DAIRY MARKET NEWS

Butch Speth (608) 422-8586 [email protected]

RECORDED INFORMATION SYSTEM (608) 422-8602

FAX (608) 240-6689 ________________________ USDA, Dairy Market News 4600 American Parkway, STE 106 Madison, WI 53718-8334

Additional Dairy Market News Information: DMN Website: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy

DMN MARS (My Market News): https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/

dairy market news week of march 16 - 20, 2020 volume 87 report … · 2020-03-20 · dairy market...

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