dallas-fort worth housing market update€¦ · –76% of us new home construction. 1q16...

Dallas-Fort WorthHousing Market Update

2016 Q1

1Q16 Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update Copyright Metrostudy 2016 | April 27, 2016

THE METROSTUDY DIFFERENCE |

LOCAL MARKET FOCUS | NATIONAL COVERAGE

PAGE 2

• #1 residential data provider

• Largest US geographic footprint available

– 900 CBSAs | 2,483 Counties

• Metrostudy survey markets

– Top 25 construction CBSAs

– 30,000 active subdivisions

– 11,000 future subdivisions

– 76% of US new home construction


Dallas – Fort Worth MarketAnnual Job Growth – 20 year history

(160,000)

(140,000)

(120,000)

(100,000)

(80,000)

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Ma

r-92

Ma

r-93

Ma

r-94

Ma

r-95

Ma

r-96

Ma

r-97

Ma

r-98

Ma

r-99

Ma

r-00

Ma

r-01

Ma

r-02

Ma

r-03

Ma

r-04

Ma

r-05

Ma

r-06

Ma

r-07

Ma

r-08

Ma

r-09

Ma

r-10

Ma

r-11

Ma

r-12

Ma

r-13

Ma

r-14

Ma

r-15

Ma

r-16

Dallas-Plano Division

Fort Worth-Arlington Division

Source: Texas Workforce Commission - CES, Not Seasonally Adjusted

3

Ft. Worth YOY Growth: 17,300

Dallas YOY Growth: 112,600

129,900


Dallas – Fort Worth MarketAnnual Job Growth – By Sector as of March 2016

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Min

ing

& C

on

st.

Ma

nu

f

Tra

de

, Tra

nsp

.,Util.

Info

rma

tion

Fina

ncial

Pro

f. Se

rv.

Ed

uc. &

He

alth

Leis.&

Ho

sp

Oth

er S

erv

Go

vtSource: Texas Workforce Commission

4


Dallas – Fort Worth MarketUnemployment Rate – 15 year history

3.8%

7.0%

4.5%

8.6%

3.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Mar-0

1

Mar-0

2

Mar-0

3

Mar-0

4

Mar-0

5

Mar-0

6

Mar-0

7

Mar-0

8

Mar-0

9

Mar-1

0

Mar-1

1

Mar-1

2

Mar-1

3

Mar-1

4

Mar-1

5

Mar-1

6U

nem

plo

yem

en

t R

ate

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

5


5-Year Mortgage Rate Trend

6

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Key Interest Rate History, 1996-201630 Yr Rate 10 Year T-Bill Fed Funds Rate

3.69%

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, Federal Reserve Bank of NY


National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Change in Emp. – February 2016

Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA

7

Rank MSA

Total

Employment

Annual Job

Growth

Annual Job

Growth %

1 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 9,296,300 181,700 2.0%

2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 5,893,300 149,600 2.6%

3 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3,447,800 116,800 3.5%

4 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 4,542,000 77,000 1.7%

5 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 2,284,700 75,500 3.4%

6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 2,606,500 72,500 2.9%

7 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 3,180,500 68,800 2.2%

8 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 2,554,800 67,800 2.7%

9 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 1,964,800 67,000 3.5%

10 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 2,826,900 60,000 2.2%

11 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 1,910,100 58,600 3.2%

12 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1,183,800 47,900 4.2%

13 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1,371,800 46,800 3.5%

14 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 1,936,800 39,800 2.1%

15 Austin-Round Rock, TX 978,000 39,800 4.2%

24 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 992,300 25,400 2.6%

47 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 2,983,600 9,000 0.3%


National Economic Overview Top Metrostudy CBSAs – Ranked by Annual Starts

8

Rank Market Annual Starts Annual Change

1 Dallas/Ft.Worth 28,878 5,315

2 Houston 27,263 -3,089

3 Atlanta 19,967 2,987

4 Phoenix/Tucson 19,503 6,684

5 Central Florida 18,943 2,242

6 Southern California 17,356 2,233

7 Denver/Colorado Springs 16,671 3,040

8 Northern California 13,702 2,858

9 Austin 12,655 1,021

10 Charlotte 10,530 1,153

11 Raleigh/Durham 10,437 1,888

12 Philadelphia Region 9,843 370

13 Suburban Maryland 9,719 -127

14 San Antonio 9,696 345

15 Salt Lake City 9,625 1,964

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketMultifamily and Resale Market

2016 Q1


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Apartment Market Summary

Source: ALN Apartment Data, Inc.

10


Dallas/Fort Worth MarketMultiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

11

Mar-16 % Change

YTD Sales 11,857 14.2%

Average Price $257,334 5.0%

Median Price $208,000 9.0%

Listings 16,813 4.2%

DOM 53 -7.0%

Months Supply 2.1 -3.0%


Dallas/Fort Worth MarketMultiple Listing Service – Monthly New Listings

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015

2016

12

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketSFD & TH New Construction

2016 Q1


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Starts and Closings

28,759

24,754

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

An

nu

al

Sta

rts

& C

losi

ng

s

Annual Starts

Annual Closings

14


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Quarterly Starts

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

6,935 7,015

6,033

5,044

Qu

art

erl

y S

tart

s

Two year earlier

Prior Year

Current Year

1Q4Q3Q2Q

15

Top 1Q16 DFW Communities Ranked by Annual Starts

#6 Castle Hills300 St., 274 Cl.

#1 Westridge548 St., 422 Cl.

#2 Paloma Creek 461 St., 396 Cl.

#5 Richwoods330 St., 329 Cl.

#8 Harvest266 St., 182 Cl.

#10 Hidden Cove254 St., 208 Cl.

#9 Frisco Lakes261 St., 201 Cl.

#4 Light Farms367 St., 251 Cl.

#7 Cross Oak Ranch267 St., 254 Cl.

#3 Phillips Creek Ranch382 St., 306 Cl.

16


Dallas/Fort Worth MarketTop 1Q16 SFD-TH Builders – Ranked by Annual Starts

*Excludes Custom Builder Sections

Rank Builder

Annual

Starts

Annual

Closings

1 D.R. Horton/Emerald/Express Homes 4,460 3,737

2 Highland/Huntington/Horizon/Sanders 1,539 1,309

3 Lennar/Villlage 1,331 1,168

4 Pulte/Centex/Del Webb 1,011 863

5 First Texas/Gallery 990 992

6 Bloomfield Homes 973 862

7 K. Hovnanian Homes 815 685

8 History Maker/Rendition 757 644

9 Megatel Homes 729 617

10 Beazer Homes 714 586

17


Dallas/Fort Worth MarketTop 1Q16 SFD-TH Builders – Ranked by Annual Starts

*Excludes Custom Builder Sections

Rank Builder

Annual

Starts

Annual

Closings

11 American Legend/Belclaire/Avanti 675 717

12 LGI Homes 663 494

13 CalAtlantic Homes 621 655

14 J Houston/John Houston Custom 512 508

15 Darling Homes 507 490

16 Meritage Homes 484 354

17 Grand Homes 449 348

18 Gehan Homes 429 378

19 David Weekley Homes 427 356

20 Landon Homes/Signature 419 451

18


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Sales per Model Home

869

28.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Sales Per ModelM

odel

Hom

es

Models Sales Per Model

19


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – New Home Inventory & MOS

4,097

11,565

8.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Months of Supply

Hou

sing

Inv

ento

ry Under Construction

Finished Vacant

Models

Months of Supply

20


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Finished Vacant Inventory

4,097

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Months of SupplyFi

nVac

Hom

es

Finished Vacant

FinVac MOS

21


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Percentage of Floorplans Price

Increased

Dallas/Fort Worth Market Product Price Changes

22


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Product Price Changes

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Annualized Average Price Change

23


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Average Change by Price Range

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

$0 to $200 $200 to$250

$250 to$300

$300 to$350

$350 to$400

$400 to$500

$500 to$750

An

nu

ali

zed

Pri

ce C

han

ge

24


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Year over Year Change in Starts & Closings

-14.6%

23.3%

51.8% 81.2%

39.2%

48.0%

50.3%

31.7%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

$1-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$749

$750-$99999

Quart

erly S

tarts

1Q15 1Q16

25

-31.0%

0.2% 16.0%46.4%

46.0%

38.1%

31.5%

19.1%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

$1-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$749

$750-$99999

Quar

terly

Clo

sings

1Q15 1Q16

Starts

Closings


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – 5 Year History in Inventory by Price

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

$1-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$749

$750-$99999

Ho

usi

ng

In

ven

tory

26


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Housing Inventory & MOS by Price

4.7

5.4

7.4

8.8 8.7

9.610.2

14.7

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

$1-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$749

$750-$99999

Mo

nth

s of S

up

ply

Ho

usi

ng

In

ven

tory

Under Construction

Finished Vacant

Models

Months of Supply

27


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Finished Vacant Inventory & MOS by Price

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.02.2

2.5 2.6

2.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

$1-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$749

$750-$99999

Mo

nth

s o

f S

up

ply

Fin

Vac

Ho

mes

Finished Vacant Inventory

Months of Supply

28


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Lot Inventory

47,759

19.9

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Mo

nth

s of S

up

ply

Lots

/Sta

rts

Vacant Developed Lots

Annual Starts

VDL Months of Supply

29


19%

18%

15%

11%

9%

13%

10%

5%4%

15%

17%

15%

13%

17%

15%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

$1-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$749

$750-$99999

Sh

are

Starts Lot Deliveries

Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Annual Lot Deliveries vs. Starts by Price

30


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Lots under construction

Excavating Streets, 15,717, 74%

Paving Streets, 3,585, 17%

Streets in, 1,850, 9%

31

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketDevelopment Activity & Inventory by Area

2016 Q1


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Lots under construction by submarket

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Ho

usi

ng

In

ven

tory

Streets completed

Paving

Excavating Roads

33


Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Top Ten Submarkets by Starts

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Ann

ual S

tart

s &

Clo

sing

s

Annual Starts Annual Closings

34

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketDevelopment Activity & Inv. by Price & Area

2016 Q1

1Q16 Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update Copyright Metrostudy 2016 | April 27, 2016 36

Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD-TH – Top 20 Submarkets at various price ranges

Rank Submarket Price Range

Annual

Starts

Annual

Closings

Finished

Vacant Months

Supply

Housing

Months Supply

VDL Months

Supply

1 Frisco $500-$749 893 776 1.9 9.1 16.7

2 Denton County $250-$299 808 661 1.2 6.8 15.0

3 Frisco $400-$499 697 670 1.7 7.1 14.3

4 N Fort Worth $200-$249 632 640 1.2 4.7 13.6

5 Mckinney $300-$349 595 531 1.5 7.5 14.9

7 N Fort Worth $1-$199 593 654 0.6 2.3 11.0

6 N Fort Worth $250-$299 531 460 1.4 5.9 13.1

8 Denton County $200-$249 509 442 0.7 4.3 7.9

9 Denton County $300-$349 464 434 1.7 7.7 21.8

10 Mckinney $350-$399 426 389 1.6 7.1 18.8

11 Mckinney $250-$299 403 309 1.6 7.9 12.9

12 SW Fort Worth $1-$199 346 284 2.1 7.0 18.4

13 Mckinney $400-$499 302 239 3.4 11.7 20.3

14 Prosper $400-$499 280 252 3.2 10.0 18.7

15 NW/NC Dallas $750-$99999 270 237 3.0 12.0 9.5

16 Denton $250-$299 266 218 2.3 8.0 9.1

17 Irving $500-$749 252 204 2.2 9.4 19.6

18 Denton $200-$249 250 261 1.4 4.2 2.9

19 Allen $400-$499 248 211 3.0 8.3 10.0

20 Lewisville $400-$499 224 189 2.2 5.7 19.0

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketConsumer Segmentation

2016 Q1


We Cannot Solve our Problems with the Same Thinking We used when

We Created Them- Albert Einstein


Targeted Consumer Marketing

39


Targeted Consumer Marketing

40

LIKE I-35, YOUR HOME

IS A WORK IN PROGRESS

YES! WE’RE OPEN


Approach

Consumers Through the Lens of Housing

41

Metrostudy Housing Consumer Groups

• Leverage over 30 years of research and home building experience

• Built on Neustar® ElementOne® segmentation system and best data available

• Segmentation and demographics applied to every home closing, new & resale, in the U.S.—over 100M houses


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Metrostudy Consumer Groups | Income & Age View

42

Elite

Entry Level

Active Adult Elite

Active Adult Entry Level

Family Life

Simple Life

Active Adult Feature & Location

YOUNG ADULT FAMILY MATUREH

IGH

MID

DLE

LOW

INC

OM

E (L

OW

–H

IGH

)

LIFESTAGES

Feature&

Location


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Active Adult – Feature & Location

76016

76012

76013

76015

76011

10% of all households in the U.S.

Well educated, middle to upper class adults nearing or in retirement with

fairly active lifestyles including travel and entertainment

Average age of 67

48% are still full time employed

Above average home ownership—75%

Home values mainly between $100,000 and $300,000

This consumer group ranks #1 out of all consumer groups in:

HH Income: $50,000 - $74,999

Served in Armed Forces

Expect a Grandchild to be Born in Next 12 Months

Registered Democrat

Hate Brand Names in TV Shows for Commercial Purposes

Primary Shopper Gender: Male


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Active Adult – Elite

76016

76012

76013

76015

76011

6% of all households in the U.S.

The wealthiest active adult households

Average age of 64

59% are still full time employed, mostly as professionals or in management

Average national income of $89,575

Households with the highest rate of home ownership—98%

Wide range of home values, most between $100,000 and $750,000

This consumer group ranks #1 out of all consumer groups in:

Household Income: $75,000 - $99,999

Member: Fraternal Orders (Elks, Masons, Eastern Star)

Retired or Took Early Retirement in Last 12 Months

Grandchild Was Born in Last 12 Months

Somewhat Conservative Political Outlook


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Active Adult Percentage by Zip Code

24.2%

17.9%

19.6%



18.3%

17.1%

18.1%

21.8%19.1%



19.1%

18.5%

16.1%

21.3%


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Active Adult Product Example

Trilogy at Verde River

Rio Verde, AZ

1,906 sq. ft.

2 Beds

2 Baths

2 Car Garage



K. Hov Four Seasons

at Monmouth Woods

Howell, NJ

2,120 sq. ft.

2 Beds

2.5 Baths

2 Car Garage



Taylor Morrison

Skyestone

Broomfield, CO

2,404 sq. ft.

2 Beds

2.5 Baths

3 Car Garage

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketExamples of Higher-Density Product

2016 Q1


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Midtown – Denver, CO

55



56

• Developer: Brookfield Residential

• Builders: David Weekley, Brookfield, Century Communities, Infinity

• Location: Denver, CO

• Property: 181.8 Acres

• Product: 1,300 Single Family and Townhomes



57

• Builder: David Weekley Homes

• SFD Density: 8.8 units/acre

• Lot Size: 32’ x 80’ (2,560 sq. ft.)

• House Size: 1,582 to 1,896 sq. ft.

• Product: SFD 2/3 Bed; 2.5 bath; 2 Car Garage



58

Goldenrod

1,634 sq. ft.

3 Beds

2.5 Baths

2 Car Garage

First Floor Second Floor


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Basecamp SFH – Chicago, IL



• Developer: Ranquist Development Group

• Location: Chicago, IL (Irving Park Neighborhood)

• Property: 4.6 Acres – 48 Homes

• Lot Size: 26’ x 73’ (1,900 sq. ft.)

• Product: SFD 4/5 Bed; 3.0/3.5 bath; 2 Car

Garage


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Apricot Station – Hayward, CA (Bay Area)

63



65

• Builder: Apricot Station, LLC

• Location: Hayward, CA (Bay Area)

• Property: 3.84 Acres – 57 Homes

• Lot Size: 30’ x 65’ (1,950 sq. ft.)

• House Size: 1,607 to 2,448 sq. ft.

• Product: SFD 4 Bed; 2.5/3.0 bath; 2 Car Garage



66

Dallas/Fort Worth MarketConclusions

2016 Q1


Dallas/Fort Worth Market Conclusions

68

• Job gains remain robust, but growth is concentrated in Dallas.

• Fervent resale market continues with year-over-year growth – tight inventory,

strong price appreciation and steady demand.

• Spring selling season is off to a good start with majority of demand between

$250,000 and $400,000.

• Builder’s ability to push prices has weakened; most likely due to buyer sticker

shock.

• Not surprisingly, total inventory supply continues to grow.

• Surprisingly, finished vacant inventory is climbing.

• Lot inventory dipped below 20 months for the first time.

• New lots coming to market this year are “next-generation” pricing. Buyers may

be reluctant to pay more for comparable homes.

• There is a shortage of Active Adult product in DFW. Empty nesters are buying

(or renting), just not from you.

• The only way to provide attainably priced homes is by increasing density and

decreasing square footage.

…now you know

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dallas-fort worth housing market update€¦ · –76% of us new home construction. 1q16...

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