Damage and loss from Natech disasters and possible interventions in Asia

Mr. Shane Wright, Executive Director, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

Towards disaster resilience: reducing risks from technological accidents triggered by natural hazards (Natech)WCDRR Public Forum event, Sendai, Japan, 16 March 2015

Content• Trends in disasters - Asia • Chemical industrial presence in Asia• Natech incidents - damage and loss • Nuclear industries in Asia - exposure and

vulnerability• Regional interventions• Future needs• Future cooperation

Increased vulnerability to natural disasters:• increased aggregation of people in urban centers;• environmental degradation; • lack of planning and preparedness.

Asian region - most disaster-prone region in the world

Disaster types and impact in Asia• In Asia, most common disasters are hydro-meteorological (e.g., floods,

storms) rather than the geophysical (e.g., earthquakes and volcanic eruptions).

• In year 2011 - estimated direct global economic loss due to natural disasters - US$363 billion; the worst year in the recorded history. – Asia and the Pacific region - US$351 billion (e.g. Japan earthquake and tsunami, Thailand floods)

• In general, Disaster Risk Reduction is a national and regional priority for all Asian countries. But the focus is mainly on natural disasters. There is a need for better recognition and understanding about complex/compound disasters, in particular natech disasters.

*Rest of Europe including Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine**North American Free Trade Agreement***Asia excluding China, India, Japan and South KoreaSource: CEFIC Chemdata International, 2014

Asian chemical production outpaces other regions

Chemical Industrial presence in AsiaGeographic breakdown of world chemical sales in 2013 (Total value of €3156 Billion)

Flooding - industrial parksThailand Floods, 2011

Flooded cement factory

Flooded factories in a industrial estate in Ayutthaya province; nearly 200 factories had to temporarily close.

Thailand is the world's largest producer of hard-disk drives and a big supplier of electronic components and car parts. Direct economic loss from the floods (June - Dec 2011) was an estimate of US$45.5 billion; (over 13% of GDP) in losses and damages – this has shaken regional and as well as global economies (supply chains and production networks).

Photos: BBC

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004Damage to oil storage tanks – Indonesia

• Destruction to oil storage �tanks, oil filled barrels and pesticide depots in Banda Aceh, Meulaboh and Krueng Raya areas were detected. Throughout the whole facility area, oil was mixed in with mud and water. �

• Limited data regarding damage and loss on industrial locations from Indian Ocean Tsunami is available.

A displaced fuel storage tank in Kreung Raya

Photo: Joint UNEP/OCHA unit report

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 Sri Lanka – Rail disaster

• Tsunami waves suddenly hit a highly crowded train on the Peraliya coastal railway line. More than 1700 people died. The town of Peraliya was also completely destroyed. It had the highest count of deaths in rail accident history.

Photo: Sunday Times, Sri Lanka

Dam Failure – environmental consequence

July 28th, 2010, Jilin, China - Heavy rain caused an upstream dam to rupture and flash floods rushed into warehouses of two chemical factories The floods washed away about 7000 chemical barrels into Songhua River. The river was Jilin city’s main water supply to its inhabitants. Consequence – Public hysteria; authorities were finding it difficult to retrieve barrels and were blamed for irrational layout of chemical industries downstream of Songhua river.

Photo: BBC

Lightning strikes on petrochemical operationsLightening strikes are indicated as one of the main causes for storage tank accidents(Chang and Lin, 2006).

East Malaysia, 2012 - Petronas subsidiary, MISC Berhard, lost at least US$40 million when one of its oil tankers was struck by lightning and caught fire.

Thailand/Map Ta Phut Industrial Park, 2012 – Bangkok Synthetics Co (BSC): Lightning Strike at a toluene vessel –

12 dead, 129 injured, environmental damages, fines and plant closure of several manufacturers.Reported Losses exceed US$1 Billion

Oil tanker ablaze in East Malaysia Photo: gCAPTAIN

Top seven nuclear reactors in the world with population living within 30km of

its industrial site are in Asia (in comparison to Fukushima Daiichi)

Karachi, Pakistan

Taiwan

Taiwan

China (2)South Korea

IndiaCanada

USA

Seismic hazard data and operational nuclear reactors in Asia

* Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors appear to have withstood the earthquake, but the damage to the electric grid contributed to station blackout conditions.

The majority of tsunami events for wave heights greater than 10 meters in Asia have occurred in Indonesia and Japan.

Considering earthquake and tsunami hazards, and population data, Taiwan’s six reactors are in high risk and consequences from a nuclear reactor accident.

Historical tsunami event locations and operational

nuclear reactors

Best Practices Guidance

• Effective land use planning

• Legislative frameworks for HZ material– Storage and handling (bulk & packaging)– Transportation – Shipping, Air, Road, Rail

• Environmental risk sensitive analysis

• Scenario mapping

• Tragedy of the commons– Legal processes that do not allow risk transfer– Ownership accountability– Plans for the management of emergencies

Best practices for emergency response (useful for natech scenarios)

• Legislative frameworks that imbed Emergency Response agencies in planning and approval process

• Legislative frameworks that clearly articulate accountability mechanisms of response agencies– Command, Control, Co ordination, ICS systems

• Capacity building of response agencies– Skills, Knowledge, Equipment, Scientific Support

Current regional interventions Most of the interventions are for technological hazards. Not much on natech disasters.

UNEP’s Flexible Framework for Chemical Accident Prevention and Preparedness – Philippines and Cambodia (2009/2010) and Sri Lanka (2013)

ADPC was a technical support partner for all of the above 3 country projects.

UNEP’s Awareness and Preparedness of Emergencies at Local Level (APELL) – First APELL Center was established in India by National Safety Council. India has already adopted APELL principles in national legislation. APELL concept has also been applied in certain industrial zones in China and Thailand.

Current regional interventions • Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation’s Chemical Dialogue (CD) serves as a

forum for regulatory officials and industry representatives : Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, United States and Vietnam

• ASEAN Oil Spill Response Action Plan – considers trans-boundary pollution; support by IMO and IPIECA

• Asian Nuclear Safety Network - A regional nuclear safety network to improve safety of nuclear installations in the South East Asia, Pacific and Far East Countries. Also includes international partners and countries: IAEA, European Commission, EDF (private sector) and several nuclear safety authorities from USA and European countries.

Why there is less attention to technological/natech accidents in Asia?

• Technological disasters are not considered important, in comparison to other regional priorities like hunger and food security, healthcare, basic infrastructure, climate change and natural DRR.

• Developing countries do not realise the significant damage and loss (direct and indirect) that can be caused; especially less awareness on natural hazards triggering technological disasters.

• Countries and donors have been addressing mainly HFA priorities; in which not much recognition for technological/na-tech. Therefore it is important that post-2015 DRR framework includes emerging risks such as natech. Natech definition need to be included in UNISDR’s terminology for DRR (2009).

Future needs for effective technological and natech risk reduction in Asia

• Better understanding of the combined impacts of natural and technological hazards in the short, medium and long term;

• Knowledge transfer on natech (International – regional – national).

• Inter-disciplinary platform and effective multi-stakeholder cooperation and coordination e.g. disaster management and environmental authorities, industries, academia etc.

• Need to gain political commitment; need to determine or quantify overall (economic) value in investing in safety/risk management and governance for the long term.

Future cooperation in Asia for technological/natech disaster risk reduction

North-South-South Cooperation (Regional corporation strengthened with the expertise of international experts)

Scientific and technical awareness and capacity building which leads towards policies and national programmes; fostering a culture that supports government regulation.

Regional knowledge networks between centres of excellence (universities, research centres, and industry associations) and competent authorities on technical aspects of technological and Natech.

Policy dialogue forums or working groups to support in formulation of national legislation and public administration practices.

Thank you. Any questions?

Key references• Slides 3-4: A Joint Study of the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank

Institute, Disaster Risk Management in Asia and the Pacific: Issues Paper, April 2013• Slide 4 http

://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2013/02/natural-disasters-and-production-networks-in-the-asia-and-pacific-region/

• Slide 5 – CEFIC data – http://www.cefic.org/Facts-and-Figures/• Slide 6 - Thai floods, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15398566• Slide 7 - Indian Ocean Tsunami Disaster of December 2004, UNDAC Rapid Environmental

Assessment of Aceh, Indonesia - Joint UNEP/OCHA unit, Feb 2005• Slide 9 - http://

reliefweb.int/report/china/irrational-layouts-chemical-factories-blamed-life-threatening-accidents-china

• Slide 10 - Changa I. J., Lin C., 2006, A study of storage tank accidents, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 19, pp 51–59

• Slide 10 - The 100 Largest Losses (1972-2001) Large Property Damage Losses in the Hydrocarbon-Chemical Industries, Marsh, 2003

• Slides 11 – 14: Cochran. T. B., Mackinzie M. G., Global Implications of the Fukushima Disaster for Nuclear Power, World Federation of Scientists’ International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies, Erice, Sicily, August 19-25, 2011