dan kara. abi research presentation at innorobo, paris 2016

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1

Robotics and Intelligent Systems:

Macro Trends, Business Engines, Opportunities

Dan Kara

Research Director, Robotics

E: [email protected]

T: @ABI_DanKara




2

Today’s TopicsSubtitle�

� Business and Technology Drivers

� Robotics Sectors

� Robotics Investments

� Industrial Systems

� Service Systems

� Consumer Systems

� Other Comments




3

Business and Technology Drivers

Dan Kara



T: @ABI_DanKara




4

The Assumed Model“New” for lack of a better word�

New Technologies

New Methodologies

New Products

New Applications

New Markets

Industry Pull Supplier Push

Increase ProductivityImprove Quality

Drive RevenueReduce Costs

Develop Competitive AdvantageIncrease MarketshareDrive RevenueDrive Growth




5

A More Accurate ModelFactors work in concert and the effect is multiplied�

� Governments / Business Development Groups

� Traditional Robotics Suppliers

� New Robotics Suppliers

� Tech Suppliers

� Systems Integrators

� Research/Academia

� Investment Community

Business Opportunities

SocialImperatives

PoliticalWill

Research Breakthroughs

Technological Innovations




6

Innovation Centers / ClustersUniversities, research centers, investors and economic development groups�

� Boston

� San Jose/San Francisco

� Tokyo

� Osaka City

� Seoul

� Munich

Also Paris, Pittsburgh, Odense (Denmark), Sweden (Robotdalen), Nagoya (Japan), San Diego, Detroit,




7

Investments and AcquisitionsUniversities, research centers, investors and economic development groups�

North American Robotics Trends

Anki’s Anki DriveRobo-Stox ETF

Medrobotics’ Flex System Ehang’s Ghost

Hardware and robotics “hot”. Business media coverage skyrocketing.

VCs, institutional investors, and more.




8

Investments/Partnerships




9

Social Drivers - Aging PopulationsParticularly North America, Western Europe, Japan�




10

Business DriversAligning of the Stars�

Seegrid GP8

Universal Robots (Teredyne) UL5 w/ Controller

Source: International Labor Organization

U.S. Retail E-commerce Sales as a Percent of Total Quarterly Retail Sales

Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, US Department of Commerce




11

Robotics Sectors




12

Robotics Market Taxonomy

Technology, Products & Services

Automation and Robotics

Service Market

Domestic

Home Care/Lawn Care

Toy and Hobby

Home Healthcare/QoL

Social/Entertainment

Other

Personal Robots

Professional

Security/Defense

Utilities

Healthcare/QoL

Logistics

Oil and Gas

Transportation

Other

Research/Education

K-12

College/University

Vocational Training

Research

Industrial Market

Manufacturing

Logistics

Other

Other

Agriculture

Other




13

Robotics Market Taxonomy

ConsumerCommercial ServicesIndustrialPublic Services

Robotics and Intelligent Systems

IndividualPublic Private

K-12 Education

College/University

Vocational Training

Research

Exploration

Other

Defense

Security\Surveillance

Public Safety

Emergency Response

Resource Management

Other

Manufacturing

Construction / Demolition

Oil and Gas

Mining and Quarrying

Agriculture

Other

Healthcare and QoL

Utilities

Transportation

Warehouse/Distribution

Wholesale and Retail

Other

Home and Lawn

Toy and Hobby

Home Healthcare/QoL

Social / Entertainment

Personal Transport

Other

Government Business Consumers

Research & Education

NGOs

Markets

Products, Applications, Services

Capabilities

Technologies

Research/Emerging




14

Robotics Investments




15

2015 VC and Private Sector Robotics Investment Worldwide�

Inve

stm

en

t ($

Mil

lio

ns

)

Year

$194M $220M$251M

$341M

$1,482M

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015




16

USA, 57%

Japan, 16%

China, 12%

Canada, 7%

France, 4%Other, 4%

Other4%

Industrial30%

Commercial49%

Consumer17%

$1,483B Sector

2015 VC and Private Sector Robotics Investment By country & sector...




17

2015 VC and Private Sector Robotics Investment

By Industry & Technology7

Software13%

Small UAVs (Drones)12%

Sensors / Sensing Systems11%

Indoor Mobile Platforms7%

Operator Services – UAVs (Drones) 6%Other47%

Data Acquisition / Processing / Mgt. Services (5%)

Manufacturing13%

Warehouse/Distribution10%

Agriculture10%

Toy & Hobby9%

Healthcare & QoL9%

Utilities9%

Other40%

Industries Technology/Products/Services




18

Industrial Systems




19

Industrial Systems

All Types, All Sizes, All Capabilities7

Kongsberg REMUS 6000

Palletizing Systems

Kuka KR 1000 TITAN

Materials Handling Systems

Motoman MA 1900

Arc Welding Systems

Denso VS Series

Assembly Robots

FANUC LR M-430iA/2F

Food Handling Systems

Seegrid GP8

Warehouse Automation Systems




20

An Automation Continuum

Ranging From Inflexible “Hard” Automation to Highly Flexible Manual Labor7

Fixed Automation

Industrial Robots Mobile Robots Co-Workers Exoskeletons Manual Labor

Advantage / ValueSpeed Flexibility

Low High

Process Complexity

The transition from mass production and lean manufacturing to agile methods is a global manufacturing trend.

Craft Mass Lean Agile




21

Yearly Installations of Industrial Robots Up

Solid growth7

IFR = 200K units by 2018.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Year

29%

265*

229

Units (x1000)

2015 Sales = @$12B, With Sales, Installation etc. = $32B

Source: Source: International Federation of Robotics




22

Asia Driving Growth

Yearly Installations of Industrial Robots*7

Source: Source: International Federation of Robotics’ World Robotics 2015, ABI Research

* Excluding Africa and ROW

45.6

43.3

41.2

43.8

30.7

20.5

34.7

32.6

30.3

28.1

26.2

17.1

9

17.2

139.3

98.8

84.6

88.7

69.8

30.1

60.3

0 50 100 150 200 250

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

Units (x1000)

Year Asia / Australia Europe Americas

112,635

59,788

117,947

159,074

154,393

173,141

217,500




23

Manufacturing and Warehousing Automation

Robotic automation for all processes7...

All major manufacturing and warehouse/distribution center processes have been automated with robotic technology to some degree.

Materials Processing/Production Distribution

Suppliers Customers

Unload, Unpack, Depalletize Palletize, Pack, Load

WarehousingOrder PickingTransportation

WarehousingTransportation

Tracking/Quality Control

Machine TendingPick and PlacePart Transfer

Assembly

“Tagged” products and materials monitored as they move through manufacturing environments and warehouses and distribution centers. Links to IT back ends and WMS common.




24


Transportation and order picking7...

Amazon Robotics’ Kiva Warehouse Automation System

Adept Technology’s Lynx and Intelligrated “Mobilized” RTS GoKart Fetch Robotics' Fetch and Freight




25


Loading and unloading....

Egemin ETL

Jervis Smart Loader

STORACT LOG ATL System




26

Co-Worker / Collaborative RobotsIntelligent Systems Working in Close Approximation With Humans�

� Complement to Traditional Systems

� Human-Robot Cooperation

� Adaptive, Flexible Automation

� Complex Manipulation

� Programming Ease

� Safe Operation

� Low Cost

Kawada Industries Nextage

Rethink Robotics’ Baxter and Sawyer

ABB YuMiUniversal Robots UL5 Double




27

Three Key Market Opportunities

Collaborative robotics have “evolved” over time7

Supporting Small-to-Medium Manufacturers

Material Handling

Machine TendingSupporting Flexible / “Agile” Manufacturing

Supporting the Electronics Manufacturing Services Market

Key Markets / Capabilities Key Tasks

Light Assembly

Time




28

Collaborative Robots – Total Units/Total Revenue By Year

World Market, Forecast: 2015 to 2020

3,030

40,036

$95

$1,001

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Units per Year Revenue

Year

Units Revenue

Revenue growth is largely a function of unit sales. ASP remains flat (CAGR 2015-2020 = -4.4%).




29

Collaborative Robots - Unit Sales Market Share By Region

From 2015 to 2020 European and APAC market share by region undergoes an inversion7

Europe, 58%

North America, 22.8%

APAC, 19%ROW, 0.2%

Europe, 26%


APAC, 57%

ROW, 1.0%

2015 2020




30

Service Systems




31

Service Robotics

More than stars in the sky7

iRobot RP-VITA

Mobile Telepresence

Hocoma Lokomat

Rehabilitation

Rio Tinto ATH

Mining

Kongsberg REMUS 6000

Exploration / Monitoring

Yamaha's RMAX

Spraying

Vision Robotics “Snippy”

Farming




32

Mobile Service Robots

All Types, All Sizes, All Capabilities7

Aethon’s TUG

Healthcare Logistics

Knightscope’s K5

Security

Partnering Robotics’ Diya One

Environmental Monitoring

Swisslog’s (Kuka) RoboCourier

Healthcare Logistics

Savioke’s Relay

Hospitality Services




33

Wearable Exoskeleton – Purchaser Profiles

By User Type, Buyer Type and Capabilities ...

Professional Use

Personal Use

Assist

IncreaseEndurance

Amplify

AugmentCapabilities

Rehabilitate

RestoreAbilities

Enable

EnableDaily Living

Control

GuideActuation

Business-2- Business

Business-2-Consumer

Larger Smaller

Relative Addressable Market Size - Users

Consumers Business NGOs Government

Value =




34

Exoskeletons - Total Revenue

Market exceeds $1.9B by 2025

$68M

$354M

$1.9B

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Enable/Rehabilitate Assist/Amplify

Re

ve

nu

e(U

S$ 0

00s)

Year

Market exceeds $1.9B by 2025.




35

sUAS Markets By Purchaser

sUAS markets can be classified by purchaser, as well as funding sources, sales cycles and platform ASP

Consumers Business NGOs Government

** NOGs = Non-governmental organizations

Prosumer / Hobbyist

Professional Use

Business-2- Business

Personal Use

Business-2-Consumer

Military / Security Civil Commercial Consumer / Toy

• Military, civil or other governmental entities

• Also non-profits, research institutions and other NGOs**

• Grants, awards and other “soft money” sources

• Relatively long sales cycles

• For-profit businesses

• For commercial use

• Medium sales cycles

• Individuals/businesses

• Personal/commercial use

• Short sales cycles

• Individuals

• For personal use

• Immediate sales cycles




36

sUAS Markets By Applications

Prosumer/Hobbyist sUAS also purchased by individuals and small businesses for commercial purposes7.

* Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance

• Search & Rescue

• Border Security

• Environment & Wildlife Management

• First Responder & Emergency Response

• Education / Research

• Law Enforcement & Public Safety

• Other

Prosumer / Hobbyist

Professional Use

Business-2- Business Business-2-Consumer

Personal Use

Military / Defense Civil Commercial Consumer / Toy

• ISR*

• Perimeter & Convoy Security

• Tactical Awareness

• Targeting

• Search & Rescue

• Communications Relay

• Other

• Agriculture

• Oil & Gas

• Geology /Mining

• Forestry

• Insurance

• Infrastructure /Industrial Inspection

• Other

• Professional photography and videography

• Film and media

• Real estate

• Professional entertainment

• Private Security

• Marketing / sales

• Other

• Recreational photography and videography

• Personal entertainment / first person flying

• Action sports

• Other




37

Total sUAS Ecosystem Revenue - World Market, Forecast: 2014 to 2019

sUAS market exceeds $8B by 20197

• Revenue includes:

- Platforms

- Systems/Platforms Support and Services

- Application Services

- Enabling Technologies

Re

ve

nu

e (

$M

)

$2.8B

$3.8B

$8.5B

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Prosumer/Hobby sUAS

Commercial sUAS

Military/Civil sUAS

Year




38

Total Commercial sUAS Ecosystem Revenue - World Market

Commercial sUAS market exceeds $5B by 2019

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Enabling Technologies

Application Services

System/Platform Services

Platforms

Re

ve

nu

e (

$M

)

Year

$5.1B

$651M




39

Targeting Commercial sUAS Markets

Military/Civil suppliers move “downstream”, Prosumer/Hobbyist suppliers “upstream”7

• Acquisitions

• Internal Development

• Partnerships

• Investment

New Technologies

New Products

New Applications

New Markets

Prosumer/Hobbyist Suppliers

Others

Military/Civil Suppliers

Toy Makers




40

Consumer Systems




41

Classes of Consumer Robotics Products

Domestic service robots that are purchased by individuals that educate, entertain or assist in the home7.

Hobby Drones

Lego Mindstorms’ EV3 Parrot’s AR.Drone

Smart Toys Educational Robotics Hobby Robots / Kits

Robonova by HiTecWonder Workshop’s Dash & Dot

Home Care / Lawn Care Personal / Social Robots Mobile Telepresence

Jibo’s Jibo R. Bot’s Synergy Swan

Home Healthcare / QoL*

Saebo’s ReJoyce

Home security, home automation, pet care and durable juvenile products are also becoming “robotized”, adding the ability to sense, think and act (impact or move through) in the physical world.

* QoL = Quality of LIfe

iRobot’s Roomba




42

Classes of Robotic Home Care / Lawn Care Products

Purchased by individuals to assist in the home7.


Gutter Cleaning

John Deere’s Tango E5 iRobot ‘s Looj 330

Vacuuming / Sweeping Lawn Mowing Window Cleaning

Ecovacs WinbotNeato Robotics ‘ XV-15

Ecovacs’ Atmbot

Air Purifying Pool Cleaning Floor Washing

Smartpool’s 7i iRobot ‘s Scooba

Lawn Watering

Droplet Robotics’ Droplet

These are autonomous or semi-autonomous robotics technologies that maintain the home environment7

Robotic devices perform a given task more regularly than if undertaken by hand (say, vacuum the floor or mow the lawn every day). Repetition, and not performance vs manual methods, is their key advantage.




43

Classes of Robotic Home Care / Lawn Care Products

Four classes of home care robots based on their general function7

Home Care Robots

Floor Care Lawn Care

Mowers

Pool Care Miscellaneous

Pool Cleaners

Hybrids

Combos

Vacuums

Sweepers

Washers

Dusters

Window Washers

Air Purifiers

Gutter Cleaners

Lawn Watering

Lawn Watering

Current market size ($) is roughly proportional to the relative addressable market. For example, the addressable market for floor care products is much larger then for other types of robotic home care/lawn care systems, as is the current market size for them at this time.

Relative Addressable Market

$$$ $$ $$$$$




44

• Dust & allergen filtration/HEPA filters

• Odor neutralization

• Remote control

• UV sterilization

• Increased bin capacity

• Programmable scheduling

• Pet/workshop optimized versions

• Noise reduction

• Upgradable software

Incremental Features

Robotic Floor Cleaner Trends

Hands off, autonomous, deep cleaning w/complete coverage can attract premium pricing & high margins7P

rice / M

arg

in

Incremental FeaturesBaseline Functionality Equal / Better Than to Human

Capabilities

$$$$

$

• Bump sensors

• Intelligent cleaning routes

• Virtual walls

• Step/drop avoidance sensors

• Multi-mode cleaning(different sized areas)

• Multiple floor types(carpet, parquet, laminate, tiles etc.)

Original Features

• Automatic height adjustment

• Disentanglement capability

• Anti-collision sensors

• Position sensors

• Longer battery life, quicker recharge

• Automatic power saving

• Dirt detection feature

• Intelligent navigation/ mapping

• Edge cleaning/wall following

• Auto docking and recharging

Autonomy

• Powerful Suction

• Complete Coverage

Deep Cleaning




45

Home Care / Lawn Care Robots - Revenue By Segment

Robotic Vacuums/Floor Cleaners/Hybrids revenues dominate the sector.


$1.1B

$2.9B

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Robotic Vacuums / Floor Cleaners / Hybrids

Robotic Lawn Mowers

Robotic Pool Cleaners

Other Home Care / Lawn Care Robots

Year

$ M

illi

on

s

Total revenue for consumer Home Care/Lawn Care robots will nearly triple between 2014 and 2019.CAGR 2014-2019 = 19.6%




46

Home Care / Lawn Care Robotics Products

Europe dominates7


Europe, 43.0%


APAC, 24.1%

ROW, 1.0%

Europe, 40.3%


APAC, 26.7%

ROW, 0.9%

Europe, 70.8%


APAC, 3.9%

ROW, 0.9%

Europe, 51.7%


APAC, 6.4%

ROW, 5.1%

Robotic Pool CleanersRobotic Lawn MowersRobotic Vacuums / Floor Cleaners




47

Other Comments




48

Connected Devices - World Market, Forecast: 2015 to 2020

Internet connected, IP addressable “things”7


* Includes wireless, fixed and satellite connectivity.

12,278

17,190

9,200

28,300

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2015 2020

Internet of Things

Internet of Digital

Year

Devices* x106

21,478

45,490

62%

43%

57%

112%

38%




49

“Robotic” Edge Devices

“Dynamic Actuation” = “Robotic”7


Static Actuation

S Sensing

P Processing A Actuation

C Communication

S C

Wired/WirelessLAN

Edge Devices

PS C CPC PC

MonitoringApplications

Data Analytics

Hubs/Gateways Wired/WirelessWAN

Cloud Based Processing

“Thin” Devices

“Intelligent” Devices

APS C

Dynamic Actuation

MovementMobility

Manipulation

AutonomyIntelligence

“Robotic” Devices

“Actuated” Devices




50

Robots as Hubs and Edge Devices

Robotic technology functioning as sensors and hubs7


Wired/WirelessLAN

Edge Devices Hubs/Gateways Wired/WirelessWAN

Cloud Based Processing


Data Analytics

CPC PC


Data Analytics“Robotic” Devices

PC

S C

PS C

“Thin” Devices

“Intelligent” Devices

APS C“Actuated” Devices “Robotic” Devices




51

Future RoadmapSubtitle�

� KUKA Systems Designs a New Factory

� Producing Jeep Wrangler (and Other) Bodies

� Emphasis On:

– Constant flow of communication

– High production volumes

� Features:

– 246 Interconnected robots

– Supporting 1,444 data nodes

– Connected to edge 60,000 edge devices

� Centralized Data Management

� One Jeep Auto Body Every 77 seconds

– Operational 20 hours per day

Over 1 million Jeep Wranglers have been produced so far.




52

Increasing Intelligence

A multi-tiered data sharing and execution architecture...





53

Robotics, Automation and Intelligent Systems

The Larger Picture (Much Larger)7


Communicate

Collaborate

Mobile CommunicationRobotics

Sense

Think

Act

Intelligent Systems

Sense

Think

Communicate

Collaborate

Act

Autonomy

Mobility

Automation

Sense

Act

Smart Devices

Sense

Think

Communicate

Collaborate

Act




54

Dan Kara



T: @ABI_DanKara

Robotics and Intelligent Systems:

Macro Trends, Business Engines, Opportunities