danube-black sea regional projects – catalysts for nutrient reduction (zavadsky)

Danube-Black Sea Regional Projects – Catalysts for Nutrient Reduction Experiences with Setting Targets, Measuring Compliance and Results, and Scaling up Achievements in Nutrient Reduction

Regional Conference on Nutrient Pollution Control in theDanube-Black Sea Basin, Moldova, 4-6 October 2006

Ivan Zavadsky, UNDP/GEF Regional Programme DirectorDanube/ Black Sea


2

COOPERATION FOR POLLUTION CONTROL IN THE DANUBE – BLACK SEA REGION

» GEF Support: GEF Danube – Black Sea Strategic Partnership and TDA/SAP Process (1991 - 2007)

» Danube Convention and the ICPDR (1994/1998)» Black Sea Convention – BSC (1992/1994)» EU Water Framework Directive and other EU

Directives, EU Marine Strategy(2000)» DABLAS Task Force (2001)» ICPDR/BSC Memorandum of Understanding

(2001)


3

GEF Danube – Black Sea Strategic Partnership

Objectives Indicator Success

Adopting and implementing of new policies 100%

Implementing investment projects 100%

Capacity building of Secretariats 75%

Adopting of legal mechanisms 50 – 75%

Reinforcing international cooperation 75%

Implementing pilot projects 50%


4

INDICATORS

» Process» Strengthening Institutions» Policy / Legal

» Stress Reduction» Nutrient Reduction – investments / achievements» BAPs

» Status» N/P loads» DO in Black Sea» Ecological status


5

PROCESS INDICATORS

» Institutional Strengthening» ICPDR / BSC» DEF / Black Sea NGO Forum

» Policy / legal


6

Explicitly formulated policy objectives for water management and pollution control

012345

D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UA

Explicitly formulated policy objectives for water management and pollution control,1 - insufficient, 2 - Limited, 3 - satisfactory, 4 - appropriate / complete

Programmes especially dealing with water management and pollution control

D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UA

Action Programmes / National Environmental Plans Specific Programmes for Sectors Other Programmes

Programmes dealing with EU WFD Implementation

D AT CZ SK HU SI HR BiH SM BG RO MD UAStrategy for WFD I mplementation State Environmental Policy Harmonization with WFD Expected / New law

Status of Water-Related Policy, Programmes and Action Plans in the Danube Countries


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STRESS REDUCTION Targets

» Danube:» 22% reduction in P emissions and 33%

reduction in N emissions by 2005 cf 1996 baseline level.

» BS TDA:» To avoid exceeding nutrient loads of 1997;» To reduce nutrients loads allowing Black

Sea ecosystems to recover to conditions similar to those observed in the 1960s.


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STRESS REDUCTION Considerations in target-setting

» Point vs. diffuse sources of nutrients;» Groundwater contribution to nutrient budget

(47% of Danube input is GW-derived);» Recent historical changes in nutrient inputs

and outputs – law of diminishing returns!» Internal loading of nutrients;» Economic influences on nutrient management

(e.g. agricultural practices).


9

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

1960 1970 1988 1997 2003

Tota

l N (t

onne)

.

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

1960 1970 1988 1997 2003

Tota

l P (to

nne)

.

0

40,000

80,000

1960 1970 1988 1997 2003

Tota

l N (to

nne)

.

0

30,000

60,000

1960 1970 1988 1997 2003

Tota

l P (to

nne)

.

Romania

Bulgaria

N P

STRESS REDUCTION Livestock manure


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SUMMARY OF REDUCTIONSNutrient

Removal, t/ a Timeframe

No. of

Projects

Total

I nvestment

MUSD N P

Completed by Dec 2003 56 803 5,351 1,013

Completed in 2004 and 2005 35 475 4,552 836

Completed after 2005 (full

financed) 106 1440 >10,013 >1,839

World Bank-GEF NRIF

(implem., prep, pipeline) 14 576 5,936 443

TOTAL 211 3,294 >25,852 >4,131

Context: Emissions estimated 700kt/a (N); 70kt/a (P)

Load estimate 410 kt/a (N); 12 kt/a (P)


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0

200

400

600

800

1948

-195

9

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

DIN

(kt

/y)

.

DIN (Q corr.) kt/y DIN kt/y Almazow

linear trend

0

200

400

600

800

100019

48-1

959

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

DIN

(kt

/y) .

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Flo

w (m

3 /s

)

DIN kt/y TNMN/Buch.Decl.DIN kt/y AlmazowDanube discharge m3linear trend

0

20

40

60

80

100

1948

-195

9

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Tota

l P

(kt

/y) .

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Flo

w (m

3 /s) .

P kt/y TNMN/Buch.Decl. P kt/y Almazow

Danube discharge m3 linear trend

0

20

40

60

80

1948

-195

9

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Tota

l P (k

t/y)

.

Total P (Q corr.) kt/y Total P kt/y Almazow

Actual loads

Flow –corrected loads

Inorganic N Total P

STATUS INDICATORSDanube loads to Black Sea


12

0

3

6

9

1960s

1983-

1990

1991-

2000

2001-

2005

Bio

mas

s (g

/m

3 )

0

20

40

60

1960s

1988

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Num

ber of Taxa

sec

2

3

4

5

1966

1972

1980

1986

1996

2002

log 10 a

bundan

ce (num

ber

/l) .

1967-2005 data set1997-2005 data setLinear (1967-2005 data set)Linear (1997-2005 data set)

Phytoplankton Zoobenthos

Zooplankton

?

Phyllophora/Fisheries

STATUS INDICATORS Ecological status of Black Sea


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LESSONS LEARNED (1)

» Robust decisions are based on good information.

» Public perception and/or alternative drivers are critical to ensuring success.

» Present sensible targets: challenging, but not over-ambitious. Timing is crucial.

» Not the only player in town; co-operation is the lifeblood of success.


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14%

19%

46%

6%

14% 1%

46% felt it was “only occasionally polluted in certain places”

A third of people thought it was either completely dead (14%) or the most polluted Sea in Europe (19%).

Only 6% of respondents felt it is healthier than it used to be.

Do you think the Black Sea is healthy?

PUBLIC PERCEPTION


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LESSONS LEARNED (2)

» Source apportionment studies are invaluable, but the same methodology must be used by all participants.

» Over a short-intermediate timescale, P export is easier to tackle than N export.

» Point source nutrient emissions are “easier” to tackle than diffuse source emissions.

» Regional improvements in P export are due primarily to the end of state-subsidies.


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GOOD MONITORING DATA (1)

» Collation of existing data;» Supply of monitoring equipment;» Regional workshops on methods

development and production of standardised methods manuals;

» Pilot monitoring exercises to test manuals.


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GOOD MONITORING DATA (2)

» Analytical proficiency testing exercises;

» Research cruises to: » Improve understanding of the

eutrophication process;» Fill-in gaps left by national /

international monitoring programmes;

» Support the scientific community.


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ACHIEVEMENTS

» Institutional» Co-operation EC/GEF» SAP developed» ICPDR funded and functional» DEF strengthened » Danube Analysis» BSC/ICPDR JTWG


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ACHIEVEMENTS

» Environment» Reduced nutrients – upper Danube» Reduced P discharges from Danube» Reduced anoxic conditions NW Black Sea» Increased zoobenthos diversity NW Black

Sea


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FUTURE CHALLENGES

» Achieving / maintaining mid-1990s nutrient levels – and more!

» Agriculture and CAP reform» N reduction» Improving data


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TRANSFERABLE LESSONS

» For IRBM to succeed:» Political will – countries collaborate» Legal framework - convention» Strong institution – e.g. ICPDR» Long-term support – e.g. UNDP/GEF projects

danube-black sea regional projects – catalysts for nutrient reduction (zavadsky)

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