danube floodrisk i

Experiences in the definition of guidelines for Hazard Mapping in Trentino

Riccardo Rigon

Segan

tin

i -

Mez

zogio

rno s

ull

e A

lpi

Danube FloodRisk Project, Trento, October 4, 2011

Monday, October 1, 12

Riccardo Rigon

Danube Flood Risk Conference - Trento 3-4 October 2011

2

Outline

•What is a guide line ?

•Hazard and Risk

•Liquid and solid hazards

•Return period (is dead ?)

•Scale of analysis

•Processes

•Fit it in three colors

•Models (the experience of USDA)

•Interaction and participation

•Who does it ?


Riccardo Rigon


3

guideline |ˈgīdˌlīn|nouna general rule, principle, or piece of advice.

In this case the problem is to prevent natural hazards, and, a a consequence,

something that is crucial to prioritizing what to do where in river

catchments

... for solving a problem

what is related to civil protection issuing alarms to population, urban and

regional planning, plan and design defense work, allocate public resources, and

producing sensible laws and regulations


Riccardo Rigon


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EU projects

Are full of guidelines that nobody really read, except, maybe those

who prepared them.

Why ?


Riccardo Rigon


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One problem is that the where is also important. Once you have design the

method, you realize that using it requires itself resources.

Therefore someone has to say where to apply the method in the region first

Prioritizing and financial investment is needed also for the

studies, and not only for the final outcomes


Riccardo Rigon


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While it is proven

that each euro invested in these studies is worthwhile. This become evident

usually after a disaster has occurred, and if the disaster is avoided is usually

not evident to many.

This is paradoxical and causes an endemic low financial support to this kind of

initiatives and studies, especially at the very local scale where the danger is usually not

particularly felt.


Riccardo Rigon


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Lesson learned

Guidelines remains unread because there is not the correct information and

perception of what natural hazards can do in a given place. And because to apply

them require resources.

Guidelines need to become part of a participative process of learning about the environment which

involve institutions and people


Riccardo Rigon


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Prioritizing

the studies require to cope with the perception of risk, beside hazard, even if

risk depends directly on hazards.

Guidelines for hazard prevention

require a criterion for getting a first guess of hazard and risk


Riccardo Rigon


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This is why we gave to the province of Trento guidelines for hazard mapping “a scalar structure”, and different level of analysis.

First,

large scale, coarse grained, rules are used to choose where to study

and hazards are mapped in large, law resolution maps, using qualitative, historic, and soft information

Land use is crossed with these maps for a first guess of the risk, and hazards studies are made on these zone.


Riccardo Rigon


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Nothing excludes that other methods

for making this choice should be applicable

For instance:

•urban expansion plans should include hazard assessment

• citizens and/or association could request the studies

•norms and laws could require it in certain conditions

• legal conflicts


Riccardo Rigon


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But we must be very realistic

As a few convener told

No money, no party: there is, in this economic recession phase a great need to fully justify any single euro used in this field.


Riccardo Rigon


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Back to the Physics


Riccardo Rigon


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Flood in plansThe River Berounka, Czech Republic, 2002

Water (with mud)

Da

Wik

iped

ia

Prologo


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czech_Republic

Riccardo Rigon


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Flood in mountainTorrente Chieppena, Villa, 4 November1966

Water, sediments, and debris

Cort

esia

, Pro

f. A

. Arm

anin

i


Riccardo Rigon


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Cort

esia

, Pro

f. A

. Arm

anin

i

Water and (a lot of) mud

Flood in mountain


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PropagationInundation

HydraulicsPrecipitations

Type of Quantity ofSequence ofStatistics of

Triggering

Runoff productionSediment delivery

The physics


Riccardo Rigon


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Triggering

rainfall statisticsrunoff

subsurface flows

Hydrology

1

Geomechanics

stresses in terrain

resistence in terrain1

1

1 1

Geology


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Geology

Earth Observation

Geophysics

statigraphy quaternary

How much soil/debris ?

Soil depth

Water content

Shape recognition Analizza i rapporti metrici

Is there soil

photo interpretation

exposed rockvegetation

human settlements

What is upon the terrain ?

soilCover&Use

type of covertype of use

weight of cover

0 1

elevationslope

curvaturedrainage

contributing areas

terrainAnalysis

0 1 1

The medium


Riccardo Rigon


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Propagation (liquid and solid)Inundation (liquid and solid)

Hydraulics

The outcome

How much - Where -with which velocity


Riccardo Rigon


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Propagation (liquid and solid)Inundation (liquid and solid)

Hydraulics

The outcome

How much - Where -with which velocity

With which uncertainty


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Low


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Preliminary Analisys

Low


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Potential Risk

High Low

In the average

Low


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Potential Risk

High Low

In the average

Low

Further Assessment considering uncertainties

High


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Low

Indicative analysis


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Medium-Low

Simplified analysis

Simplified Hydraulic analysis

High

Detailed analysis

Hydraulic analysis

Geological Analysis

Hydrological analysis

Geological Analysis


Low

Indicative analysis


Riccardo Rigon


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Medium-Low

Simplified analysis

Simplified Hydraulic analysis

High

Detailed analysis

Hydraulic analysis

Geological Analysis


Geological Analysis


Low

Indicative analysis

Comparison with other hazard maps


Riccardo Rigon


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The lesson we learnt

•Even from the technical point of view there is the

necessity of many interacting competences

•Assumed that the choice of the right models has

been done (which is not easy), there is a data

requirement to be fulfilled, even for a minimal

result

•Data when available are usually in strange formats.

Nobody knows what INSPIRE is.

•Data when NOT available need to be produced.

Institutions need standards (to which you can give a

price) procedures to get them


Riccardo Rigon


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Drawing the map

Linee Guida Specifiche per lo Studio e la Redazione della Carta del Pericolo da Fenomeni Torrentizi Versione Marzo 2011

69

Si riporta come esempio in Figura 8.3 una carta del pericolo totale.

Figura 8.3 – Esempio di Carta della Pericolosità ottenibile utilizzando la metodologia spiegata nelle Linee Guida.

8.1.5 Valutazioni finali

La carta della pericolosità, prodotta sulla base delle intensità e delle probabilità di accadimento,

deve essere sottoposta ad alcune considerazioni e valutazioni prima della realizzazione della mappa

finale del pericolo. Come indicato nella Delibera Provinciale DGP 2759 del 22/12/2006, “tutti i

tematismi devono essere redatti almeno con dettaglio corrispondente alla scala vigente per la Carta

Tecnica Provinciale (CTP – 1:10000); dettagli maggiori sono utilizzabili in relazione alla natura

degli elementi presenti sul territorio ed al grado di pericolosità che li riguarda”.

La Carta della Pericolosità fornisce delle importanti indicazioni per gli strumenti di pianificazione

urbanistica del territorio; per tale motivo la carta non potrà limitarsi alle zone studiate mediante

modellazione idraulica, ma dovrà dare una rappresentazione più estesa della pericolosità,

introducendo nella rappresentazione cartografica una classificazione della pericolosità anche per le

aree del conoide che non sono caratterizzate da alcun valore delle grandezze indicatrici. Per queste

aree si può valutare, analizzando attentamente i dati raccolti e le criticità individuate nell’analisi

preliminare, se è possibile definire una classificazione della pericolosità secondo le classi ordinarie.


Riccardo Rigon


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The risk map

•Required the definition of degree of hazard which is, somewhat

arbitrary

Intensity

Probability

High

Medium

Low

High Medium Low


Riccardo Rigon


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The risk map


arbitrary

Intensity

Probability

High

Medium

Low

High Medium Low

These levelsdepend

on the phenomenabut threshold

are givenby law


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The risk map


arbitrary

Intensity

Probability

High

Medium

Low

High Medium LowThese depends

on laws


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For instance

0 50 100 150

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Precipitazione [mm]

P[h]

1h

3h

6h

12h

24h

Tr = 10 anni

h1 h3 h6 h12 h24


Riccardo Rigon


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For instance

0 50 100 150

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Precipitazione [mm]

P[h]

1h

3h

6h

12h

24h

Tr = 10 anni

h1 h3 h6 h12 h24

Tr = 100 anni


Riccardo Rigon


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Where do 500 years of return period is ?

•How much reliable is it ?

•How much is the uncertainty produced in

models ?


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Where do 500 years of return period is ?

•How much reliable is it ?

•How much is the uncertainty produced in

models ?

BTW

•Usually people do not understand the concept of return period,

which is interpreted literally, and not statistically, over a certain area of

interest

•Some colleague declared that return period is dead


Riccardo Rigon


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Going back to models

•There should be freedom to use the best models.

•But there is the need to have standards

•And beyond standards, the need to rely on some

concept of responsibility for who makes the maps


Riccardo Rigon


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•Standard model should be available for free, as a

concept of democracy, and control. While usually

many services rely on proprietary software, whose

scientific basis cannot be verified by inspection of

the code.

Going back to models


Riccardo Rigon


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Therefore

•We proposed, at least for the hydrological part of the guidelines, free

software to support independent investigations of the problems.

Knowing that

•Many technical issues are actually under scrutiny by the scientific

community, and should not given for granted.


Riccardo Rigon


33

There are many experiences

in this direction in the World. Possibly the most ramarkable is the Object

Modeling System v3 pursued by the US Department of Agriculture. JGrass 3 - GEOFRAME in the next future

JGrass 3/ OMS 3

After David et al., 2009


Riccardo Rigon


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The Object Modeling System OMS is a modular modeling framework that uses

an open source software approach to enable all members of the scientific

community to address collaboratively the many complex issues associated with

the design, development, and application of distributed hydrological and

environmental models.

OMS3 can be found at: http://www.javaforge.com/project/omslib

OMS v3

OMS


http://www.javaforge.com/project/omslib

http://www.javaforge.com/project/omslib

Riccardo Rigon


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Conclusion

Even if the process of hazard mapping is very technical, its acceptance to the

community must be the consequence of an integrated process of discussion

and acceptance.

Otherwise, the technical results either are not understood (i.e. technologists

must explain what they did e why), or simply considered in an alternative among

others, and not applied.

In turn, the identification of an hazard, does not automatically individuate the

solution but usually, a set of solutions, which, again require discussion and

acceptance to be transformed in policies.

Not the same solution is valid everywhere.


Riccardo Rigon


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Hazard information, Protection, Warning

Sense of danger: As Vladimiro Dorigo wrote, (Una Laguna

di chiacchere, 1972), the idea of how Nature is strong must

be recovered, and we need to be respectful of it.

Sense of change: climate is changing, and what is assessed

for now could not be for the future.

Sense of vulnerability: what was acceptable times ago in

term of risk is not anymore acceptable.


Grazie per l’attenzione !

http://events.unitn.it/migg2011-2012

25-28 0ttobre 2011L’analisi idrologica per la redazione di carte del pericolo derivante dal franamento e dalle piene con JGrass(CUDAM e HYDROLOGIS) 7-10 febbraio 2012Progettazione e gestione delle reti idrauliche(CUDAM, HYDROLOGIS e HYDROMATES)


http://events.unitn.it/2migg2010

http://events.unitn.it/2migg2010

Riccardo Rigon


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The Vigata Case0

1020

3040

50

tempo [giorno/ora]

Prec

ipita

zion

e [m

m]

01/10:16 01/10:17 01/10:18 01/10:19 01/10:20 01/10:21 01/10:22 01/10:23 02/10:00 02/10:01 02/10:02 02/10:03 02/10:04

010

2030

4050

It begins with a storm …They were rolls, waves that

finished in a puff: known noises, village things.(L. Meneghello, Libera nos a Malo)


Riccardo Rigon


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02

46

8

tempo [giorno/ora]

Porta

ta [m

c/s]

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08

02

46

8

idrogramma da evento realeprecipitazione misurata Montelusa

010

2030

4050

Piog

gia

[mm

/h]

The downpours were onto the courtyards here around, the thunder up

here above the roofs; I could recognize by ear, a little further up, the

place of the usual God that made storms when we were children, He too a

village character.(L. Meneghello, Libera nos a Malo)

The Vigata Case


Riccardo Rigon


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●

● ●

●

●

0.1 0.5 1.0 5.0 10.0 50.0 100.0

1020

5010

020

050

010

00

durate [ore]

h [m

m]

●

● ●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

● ●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

●

●●

●

●

TR 10 anni h=51.443 x d^0.1919

TR 20 anni h=59.152 x d^0.1889

TR 30 anni h=63.585 x d^0.1875

TR 50 anni h=69.125 x d^0.1860

TR 100 anni h=76.596 x d^0.1843TR 200 anni h=84.039 x d^0.1830

TR 300 anni h=88.386 x d^0.1822

evento: cumulata 9Hevento: cumulate 3Hevento: cumulate 1H

9h

3h

1h

The Vigata Case


Riccardo Rigon


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02

46

8

tempo [giorno/ora]

Porta

ta [m

c/s]

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08

02

46

8

evento realeevento intensità cost d=9Hda LSPP, TR=300, d=9Hprecipitazione misurata Montelusa

010

2030

4050

Piog

gia

[mm

/h]

The Vigata Case


Riccardo Rigon


42

02

46

8

tempo [giorno/ora]

Porta

ta [m

c/s]

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06 02/10:08

02

46

8

evento realeevento intensità cost d=9Hda LSPP, TR=300, d=9Hevento intensità cost d=7Hda LSPP, TR=300, d=7Hprecipitazione misurata Montelusa

010

2030

4050

Piog

gia

[mm

/h]

The Vigata Case


Riccardo Rigon


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02

46

810

1214

tempo [giorno/ora]

Porta

ta [m

c/s]

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06

02

46

810

1214

evento simulato da ietogrammaLSPP, TR=300LSPP, TR=100LSPP, TR=50

In this basin, the maxima discharge are those which have short duration.

The Vigata Case


Riccardo Rigon


44

Oihbo’

Rainfall data are at hourly time step. We need sub-hourly

Rainfall has actually been measure elsewhere, at Montelusa a few chilometers from Vigata.


Riccardo Rigon


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Oihbo’



Moral

These data could not be appropriate to do any diagnostic


Riccardo Rigon


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Oihbo’



Moral

These data could not be appropriate to do any diagnostic

In future

Maybe having data from high resolution meteorological models -less that 1 km2


Riccardo Rigon


45

BTW if the hydrologists have used the usual practice. Would have they contained the flood ?

02

46

810

1214

tempo [giorno/ora]

Porta

ta [m

c/s]

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06

02

46

810

1214


Yes, they would

The Vigata Case


Riccardo Rigon


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Il caso di Vigata0

24

68

1012

14

tempo [giorno/ora]

Porta

ta [m

c/s]

01/10:16 01/10:18 01/10:20 01/10:22 02/10:00 02/10:02 02/10:04 02/10:06

02

46

810

1214


90-100 mc/s No, if they would not have accounted for the debris

BTW if the hydraulic work have been made following the usual practice. Would have they contained the flood ?


Riccardo Rigon


47

... you know what I'm craving? A little perspective. That's it. ...Anton Egò

Investing resources

to save

resources


Riccardo Rigon


48

In this case

Meteorological model at high resolution (radar, ground networks, satellites)

Fully distributed hydrological models

Rainfall-Runoff-Propagation ModelsC

on

trol

from

sat

elli

tes

Gro

un

d m

easu

re a

nd

exp

erim

ents


Riccardo Rigon


49

cou

rtes

y C

ISM

A (

ww

w.c

ism

a.b

z.it)

Forecasting


http://www.cisma.bz.it


Riccardo Rigon


50

cou

rtes

y C

ISM

A (

ww

w.c

ism

a.b

z.it)

\

Forecasting




Riccardo Rigon


51

02

46

810

12

time (day/month)

Ipre

c

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04

820

830

840

850

time (day/month)

AirP

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04

2040

6080

100

time (day/month)

Rel

Hum

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04

050

100

200

300

time (day/month)

SWgl

ob

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04

−20

−10

010

time (day/month)

AirT

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04

050

150

250

350

time (day/month)

Win

dDir

01/10 15/10 29/10 12/11 26/11 10/12 24/12 07/01 21/01 04/02 18/02 04/03 18/03 01/04 15/04 29/04

cou

rtes

y M

ou

nta

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om

)

Forecasting




Riccardo Rigon


52

cou

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Forecasting




Riccardo Rigon


53

cou

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f. E

. Far

abeg

oli

, Un

iv. B

olo

gn

a

Forecasting


Riccardo Rigon


54

cou

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ww

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Forecasting




Riccardo Rigon


55

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nta

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ww

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)

Forecasting




Riccardo Rigon


56

cou

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nta

in-e

erin

g (

ww

w.m

ou

nta

in-e

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g.c

om

)

Forecasting




Riccardo Rigon


57

What you cannot forecast, you can prevent

Courtesy del Prof. Aronne Armanini- Check dam withDebris Flow Breaker


Riccardo Rigon


58

Thank you for your attention

G.U

lric

i -

20

00

?


danube floodrisk i

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