darren quinlivan - metro trains melbourne

Implementing the Australian Rail Risk Model (ARRM) at Metro Trains MelbourneDarren Quinlivan, Strategy & Risk ManagerSafety, Environment & Risk

What is the Australian Rail Risk Model (ARRM)?

• Quantitative model estimating the risk of various hazardous events that could occur on a

railway

• RISSB project stage 1 due for delivery late 2017

• The project is associating occurrence data from ONRSR into the model

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Hazardous Events

A model of safety risk on Australian Railways


Example taken from UK Safety risk model

Taken from UK RSSB Annual Safety Performance Report 2015/2016 rssb.co.uk


Example – Hazardous Event

Model includes possible ranges of harm from

derailments and the probabilities of escalation

• The worst derailment in Australia was

Granville, in 1977, when 83 died

• But most derailments result in no harm to

persons


Risk Estimates

• The unit of risk will be Fatalities and Weighted Injuries per year (FWI/yr), where one FWI is equivalent to:

one fatality, or 10 serious injuries, or 200 minor injuries.

• Risk estimates will be iteratively updated based on the occurrence data in the last period of collection

• Risk values will be normalised for your operations:

• e.g. Track length, Freight kilometres travelled, Passenger kilometres travelled, Infrastructure

worker hours, Passenger journeys per year.


So…How will this improve safety on the Melbourne Network?


Benefits

ARRM provides a greater understanding of risk, its causes and consequences

• Measuring Safety Performance

• Setting priorities• Benchmarking against other operators

• Making Safe Decisions

• New projects coming on line• Decisions to ensure continued safety of changes to legacy assets


Melbourne Network

Undergoing the greatest network transformation in its history:

• 50 Level Crossing removals

• 65 High Capacity Metro Trains

• Metro Tunnel Project

• High Capacity Signalling(including CBTC)


Measuring Safety Performance

Some conventional measures:

• All injury frequency rate

• Lost time injury frequency rate and severity rate

• Customer injury frequency rate

• Rate of Signals Passed at Danger



How do we measure safety risk?

Measuring Safety Performance

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017 Consequence Severity

Frequency of Occurrence

Slips, trips and falls

Musculoskeletal injury

Electrical risk

Collisions/derailment risks

UK 10 year trend in risk precursors


Level crossing removals


UK Estimated risk vs observed rate of harm

Taken from UK RSSB SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin rssb.co.ukMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

UK Summary of overall safety risk


Sources of risk UK


Making Safe Decisions

Support quantitative risk analysis and cost benefit analysis

As the operator ARRM will assist validation of analyses provided by projects


ONRSR Major Projects Guideline


Section 4.4 Quantitative safety limits As a minimum, the ONRSR expects: • major projects to document the upper

limit for individual or collective risks of equivalent fatality; and

• major projects to ensure documented limits are consistent with the relevant RTO’s SMS.

Melbourne Tunnel Project


Making Safe Decisions

Compare Options or Benchmark against the Industry


00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

4

Current risk Option AOption B

Industry Average

Examples of Sensitivity Tests

Assess risk/benefit from changes to:

• Protection arrangements at a level crossing

• Line-speed on track sections

• New signalling equipment or different train protection strategies

• Configuration change or upgrades to rolling stock

• Train service frequency


• Carriage of dangerous goods

• Track maintenance

• Driver training and competence systems

• Introducing escalators rather than stairs

Thank youMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Project contactsJesse Baker - RISSBNeil Robinson - RBG Assurance

[email protected]@rgbassurance.com.au

darren quinlivan - metro trains melbourne

Automotive