data aggregation and analysis · 2017-06-16 · achievements from 2010-2012 non-programmatic and...

B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

Data Aggregation and Analysis

PRESENTERS:

Danielle Gidding, BPA

Erin Rowe, Cadmus

Lakin Garth, Cadmus


2

Project Overview

Data Analysis Process

The Results

Next Steps

Q&A

TODAY’S AGENDA


3

Avista

BPA

Chelan PUD

Energy Trust

of Oregon

Grant County

PUD

Council Staff

Many Public Utilities

NEEA

NW Energy Coalition 7th Plan

Working Group

PPC 7th Plan Working Group

Idaho Power

NEEA

PacifiCorp

Puget Sound

Energy

9 DATA PROVIDERS

5 STAKEHOLDER REVIEW

GROUPS


4

We want your feedback! Comments go to [email protected]


5

PROJECT

OVERVIEW


6

BPA uses Power Plan as our Conservation

Potential Assessment (CPA) to set EE goals

• We must ensure BPA and public power utilities

understand and are confident in the results

During the 6th Plan review process

• many questions arose that we didn't have time,

scope or resources to fully explore

Therefore, for the 7th Plan process, we have

developed a project to conduct technical

analysis

BACKGROUND


Goal of this project is to:

• Conduct a technical review of regional savings

achievements toward the 6th Power Plan

• Conduct research on questions posed

by BPA, its customer utilities, and other

stakeholders

• Supplement Council staff analytics, providing

unbiased data on where savings occurred

Outputs of the project provide the region with

information to support effective CRAC

participation by BPA, customer utilities and

regional stakeholders

7

PURPOSE


This project has answered technical questions like:

• What were achievements since 6th Plan?

• Where are the gaps?

And conduct market research on questions like:

• What are barriers to adoption of specific technologies?

• What is the experience in other regions?

This project doesn’t answer fundamental policy

questions like:

• What are the correct ramp rates?

• What should the target be?

8

SETTING EXPECTATIONS


Technical Analytics

Policy Decisions

9

CRAC Council Members Contract

Publics

BPA BPA

IOUs

Regional Stakeholders

Council Staff

Public Utilities

Council Staff


10

ACTIVITIES

LITERATURE

REVIEW

MARKET

RESEARCH

DATA

COLLECTION

DATA

ANALYSIS


11

6th Power Plan

Literature Review

Document that summarizes and

organizes main themes

Provides links to 6th Plan

literature

Will be available online at

Conduit website

LITERATURE REVIEW

32 DOCUMENTS

900 PUBLIC COMMENTS


12

Conduct 20 Interviews of Utility Program Representatives

Understand why the data look the way

they do

Identify successes and challenges

Compile a list of other emerging

technologies that utilities are offering

that are not included in the 6th Plan

supply curves

MARKET RESEARCH

Our Plan:


13

DATA COLLECTION

What Was Requested Measure specific savings data on

achievements from 2010-2012

Non-programmatic and market

transformation savings

Participating Utilities Provided Sector, end-use and some and

measure specific savings data

But Utilities Reported Data

Differently Wide range in granularity

Variance in sector types

Different measure classifications


14

DATA ANALYSIS PROCESS


15

DATA ANALYSIS PROCESS

DATA

CLEANING

DATA

MAPPING

DATABASE

DEVELOPMENT

DATA

ANALYSIS


16

DATA CLEANING

Process Included

Reviewing the data

Removing fuel switching measures

Removing NEEA savings from utility

data to avoid double counting

Extracting relevant data

No adjustments to savings were made


17

DATA MAPPING

Measure Naming

Sector • Residential

End-Use • Lighting

Category • CFLs

Data are mapped to common end-uses & some specific measure

categories

Mapping allows utility data to be summarized in one data set

After mapping, utility end-uses & measures align with the 6th Plan

and can be compared

Purpose


18

DATA MAPPING

BPA Measure Naming Similar to how most utilities report data

6th Power Plan Measure Naming Useful in comparing utility data

directly to the 6th Power Plan

1

2

Mapping Challenges

Wide range of granularity

No common naming across the region

Measures not included in the 6th Power Plan

Custom measures, in many cases, could

not be defined


19 19

DATA MAPPING:

BPA 1 6th Power Plan 2

Categorizes end-

uses by building

system.

Categorizes end-

uses by a mix of

building system and

technology.

Sector End-Use Technology

Residential Water Heating Clothes Washer

Residential Appliance Clothes Washer

1

2

Example Difference in Measure Naming


20 20

OUR DATA MAPPING SOLUTION

UNIFY ALL

UTILITY DATA

MAP SIMILAR

MEASURES

OVERCOME NAMING

DIFFERENCES

with the BPA

measure naming

scheme

Map unified data to

the 6th Plan

measure naming

scheme where

possible

Utilities name their

measures differently.

Not all measures are

included in the 6th Plan

supply curves


21

DATABASE DEVELOPMENT

Function Compile all utility data into one file

Maps utility data to the 6th Plan by

end-use

Features

Database linked to Excel workbook

Allows data to be easily added or

updated over time


22

DATA ANALYSIS

How We Analyzed the Data

Summarized savings achievements by:

• Year

• Sector

• End-Use

• Some Technologies

Compared savings achievements to

the 6th Plan by year, sector, end-use


23

ASSUMPTIONS & CAVEATS

1. We are assuming the data are correct

2. We did the best we could with the mapping

3. We had to make a few judgment calls

4. No adjustments were made to the savings


24

THE

RESULTS


25

THE RESULTS

REGIONAL

ACHIEVEMENTS

6TH PLAN

COMPARISONS

SPECIFIC

TECHNOLOGIES


26

REGIONAL ACHIEVEMENTS 2010-2012

758 660 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

aM

W

Regional Achievements

6th Plan Forecast


27

REGIONAL ACHIEVEMENTS BY SECTOR

93 115 97

91

106 89

41

55

38

10

14

9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012

aM

W Agricultural

Industrial

Commercial

Residential


28

REGIONAL COMPARISON TO 6TH PLAN

235 289 233 200 220 240 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012

aM

W


6th Plan Forecast

We expect this

number to go up


29

REGIONAL COMPARISON TO 6TH PLAN


2010-2012 6th Plan Forecast

2010-2012


30

END-USE COMPARISON TO 6TH PLAN

SUMMARY OF ALL END USES


31

RESIDENTIAL ACHIEVEMENTS

aMW

304 aMW SAVED

(2010-2012)


32

COMMERCIAL ACHIEVEMENTS

aMW

285 aMW SAVED

(2010-2012)


33

INDUSTRIAL ACHIEVEMENTS

aMW

134 aMW SAVED

(2010-2012)


34

AGRICULTURAL ACHIEVEMENTS

aMW

34 aMW SAVED

(2010-2012)


35

SECTOR COMPARISON TO 6TH PLAN

304 285 134 34 1 360 150 101 24 25 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Residential Commercial Industrial Agricultural DEI

aM

W (

20

10

-2012)


6th Plan Forecast


36


RESIDENTIAL

148 56 30 23 21 15 150 30 11 59 55 63 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lighting Consumer Electronics

Appliances HP / DHP Envelope Retro

Water Heat

aM

W


6th Plan Forecast


37


COMMERCIAL

121 38 26 25 12 2 43 18 16 12 3 7 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

aM

W


6th Plan Forecast

Lighting HVAC Controls Refrigeration PC Network/ Integrated Waste Water

Supply Design


38


INDUSTRIAL

52 28 23 14 7 31 9 25 12 28 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Process Lighting Fans, Pumps, and Motors

Compressed Air Refrigerated Storage

aM

W


6th Plan Forecast


39


AGRICULTURAL

19 9 3 5 21 3 0

5

10

15

20

25

Irrigation Scheduling Irrigation Hardware Dairy

aM

W


6th Plan Forecast


40

LOST OPPORTUNITY & RETROFIT

208 237 134 34 1

96

48

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Residential Commercial Industrial Agricultural DEI

2010 -

20

12

aM

W

Lost Opportunity

Retrofit


56 24 19 10 0.3 31 13 17 39 7.4 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Consumer Electronics

PC Network/Supply

Industrial Energy Management

Ductless Heat Pumps

Heat Pump Water Heaters


6th Plan Forecast

41

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES aM

W


42

ACQUISITION RATES

DUCTLESS HEAT PUMPS

2.5

4.0 3.3

12.95 12.95 12.95

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2010 2011 2012

aM

W Regional

Achievements

6th Plan Forecast


43

ACQUISITION RATES

0.02 0.05 0.21

1.20

2.50

3.70

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

2010 2011 2012

aM

W

HEAT PUMP WATER HEATER


44

ACQUISITION RATES

6.9

6.0 5.7

2.8

5.6

8.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2010 2011 2012

aM

W

INDUSTRIAL ENERGY MANAGEMENT


45

ACQUISITION RATES

11.4

18.6

25.6

5.5

10.5

15.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2010 2011 2012

aM

W

CONSUMER ELECTRONICS


46

ACQUISITION RATES

1.28

3.31

4.98

16.9 16.9

16.9

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

2010 2011 2012

aM

W Achieved

Target

RESIDENTIAL SHOWER HEADS


47

PROJECT RECAP

MERGED

REGIONAL DATA AT

A DETAILED LEVEL

BECAUSE NEARLY

ALL UTILITIES

PROVIDED DATA

ABLE TO SEE 6TH

PLAN VS

IMPLEMENTATION

WE CAN LOOK AT

ACQUISITION

RATES AT A

REGIONAL LEVEL


48

NEXT

STEPS


1. Cost and Incentive Data

2. Address follow up questions from CRAC

3. Launch of the database tool for public use

4. Provide Literature Review that includes links to

6th Power Plan planning documents & comments

5. Complete market research – will share results

through public document

6. Update database with 2013 data

49

NEXT STEPS


Danielle Gidding [email protected]

503.230.7314

50

QUESTIONS?

mailto:[email protected]

data aggregation and analysis · 2017-06-16 · achievements from 2010-2012 non-programmatic and...

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