Data Analytics

A Warning about Stats...

Statistics such as line breaks & possession in last third are important for City but probably irrelevant to team with different style: football analytics is a discipline in

which the way a team plays dictates which statistics are significant.

The challenge is to find out which

“Instead of looking at a list of 50 variables we want to find 5 that really matter for our style of play,” says

Pedro Marques, match analyst at MCFC

Factors Correlated with Winning at MCFC/BWFC

• Line breaks• Possession (pass completion) in final third• Scoring first gives 70% chance of winning• 80% chance of not losing if players

outworked opposition at speeds above 5.5m/s

Free Kicks

• 2010/11 season EPL• 66% of 1.4 goals per game from open play• 2.8% from direct free kicks!• Average team had 1 goal per game from open

play, but took 35 direct free kicks to score

Crosses: Quality vs Quantity (depends on players/style of play?)

• Inswingers more effective at MCFC – implications for playing inverted wingers & practising defending against them?

• High percentage of goals come from crosses BUT low percentage of crosses leads to goals therefore very inefficient way to score

• 2010/11 season: LFC (worst) = 421 crosses per goal (2 in season from crosses - 8.3% of total); MUFC (best) = 44.5 crosses per goal; Norwich (most efficient) = 45.1 crosses per goal & 53.3% of total goals

• Average number of crosses per goal was 79 in open-play & 28.3 from set-piece. Crossing accuracy higher for set-pieces (33.9%) than open-play (20.5%): crossing more effective from set-pieces than in open play

Efficiency?

2010-11 season: • 27% of all goals from crosses• Seems OK, but:• ONLY 1.6% OF ALL CROSSES LEAD TO GOALS!!!• Gareth Bale was highest @ c.2.04% I.E 1 goal

from every 49 crosses

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nxFibNqTPE

Corners • StatDNA 134 EPL matches in 2010/11• 1434 corners had no impact on amount of goals scored• 20.5% (1 in 5) corners leads to a shot on goal• Of those shots only 11% (1 in 9) end in goals• 1 corner = c.0.022 goals or 1 goal from corners in every 10

games!• “Corners are next to worthless; given the risk of being caught

on the counter-attack, with your central defenders marooned in the opposition’s box... It may be better to play it short, to retain possession”

• HOWEVER, analysts at MCFC found that 75% of the goals that were scored from corners (400 goals analysed) were from inswingers

• IMPLICATIONS: inswinging corners OR play it short

Possession: Attacking & Defending

• Data from 1140 matches over 3 EPL seasonsteams outpassing opponents score 1.44 compared to 1.19 goals & similar in conceding

• “Whatever possession stat you look at – having more, rather than less possession of the ball increases offensive output”

• “Having the ball generates between 7.7% & 11.7% more wins... decreases losses by around 7.6%”

Turnovers

• TURNOVERS = percentage of recoveries given away in match relative to opponent

• Ball changes teams c.400 times in average game (Mike Forde, Chelsea)

• Teams turning ball over (losing possession) less outscored opponents by c.1.5 goals to 1.1 & similarly defensively

• “Avoiding turnovers is the most potent weapon of all. Teams that had less than half the turnovers in any given match won around 44% of the time... Those who gave the ball away more won about 27% of the games. Having the ball is good but not giving it back is better”

Recommended Reading...• The Talent Code by Daniel Coyle• Mindset by Carol Dweck• What’s the Point of School? By Guy Claxton• Inverting the Pyramid by Jonathan Wilson • Teambuilding by Rinus Michels• Football for the Brave by John Cartwright• Conditioning for Soccer by Raymond Verheijen • Fitness Training in Soccer: A Scientific Approach by Jens Bangsbo• Developing Youth Soccer Players by Horst Wein• http://www.richardbailey.net/Participant%20Development%20Lit%20

Review.pdf• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44z2cj3mv0M – The England

Patient Part 1 – follow links for other parts• http://elitesportconsulting.wordpress.com/• The Numbers Game by Anderson & Sally• The Goldmine Effect by Rasmus Ankersen