data driven attribution: the future of intelligent measurement by simon poulton

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#SMX #31C @SPoulton Dissecting The Evolution From Rules Based To Data-Driven Attribution DATA-DRIVEN ATTRIBUTION: THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENT MEASUREMENT

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Page 1: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Dissecting The Evolution From Rules Based To Data-Driven Attribution

DATA-DRIVEN ATTRIBUTION:

THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENT

MEASUREMENT

Page 2: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Dissecting The Evolution From Rules Based To Data-Driven Attribution

DATA-DRIVEN ATTRIBUTION:

THE FUTURE OF INTELLIGENT

MEASUREMENT

Page 3: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Page 4: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Dan Carter

Page 5: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Dan Carter – New Zealand All Black

106

1,598

89§ Matches Played

§ Percent Of Games Won

§ Points Scored (All Time)

Page 6: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ Matches Played

§ Percent Of Games Won

§ Points Scored (All Time)

Owen Franks – New Zealand All Black

95

088

Page 7: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ Owen Franks is a view-through conversion on Facebook.

§ Daniel Carter is an affiliate taking last-click attribution in Google Analytics.

§ Who should we invest in to keep winning?

Rugby At-TRY-bution

Page 8: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ March 2008: Avinash Kaushik publishes first article explaining basic rules-based models.

§ April 2009: Adam Goldberg challenges marketers to think about complexity.

Multi-Touch Attribution As A Concept

Page 9: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Standard Position & Rules-Based Models

Page 10: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ Great article by Aaron Levy: http://searchengineland.com/whats-best-attribution-model-ppc-252374

Rules-Based Models – Further Reading

Page 11: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ First started appearing in articles & social conversations in late 2012.

The Rise Of Data-Driven Attribution

Page 12: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Google’s Data-Driven Attribution

§ Google Analytics Premium: Launched on August 20th, 2013 (or 1,529 days ago!)

§ Additional Roll Outs:– DoubleClick: Feb 2016

– AdWords: May 2016– Google Attribution: ~Q1 2018

Page 13: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoultonMethodology & Purpose

DATA-DRIVEN ATTRIBUTION: UNDER THE HOOD

Page 14: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Shapely Values

§ Created by Lloyd Shapely in 1953

§ Solution concept in Cooperative Game Theory

§ A way to assign credit among a group of “players” who cooperate for a certain end.

Lloyd Shapely

Page 15: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Shapely Values – Glove Example§ Example:– 3 “Players”.– Player 1 receives a left-hand glove.

– Players 2 & 3 receive a right-hand glove.

§ Task:– Form a pair.– Credit assigned to each player after

forming a pair.

Page 16: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Brand§ 3 AdWords Campaigns

§ Minimum 15,000 Clicks & 600 Conversion Actions In Past 30 Days

Shapely Values – AdWords Example

Shopping Non-Brand

Page 17: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Problem: 3 AdWords Campaigns had 4 sales of $1. How can we distribute the total credit of $4 to the individuals?

Brand Shopping Non-Brand

$4

Page 18: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Step 1: Compute Normalizing Factors (NF), for different sizes of sub-teams.

NF Formula** NF Team Permutations

Number of Campaigns

NF Formula NF Team Permutations

1 NF: (0! * 2!) / 3! = 2/6 = 1/3 33%

2 NF: (1! * 1!) / 3! = 1/6 = 1/6 16%

3 NF: (2! * 0!) / 3! = 2/6 = 1/3 33%

Brand Shopping Non-Brand

Page 19: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Step 2: Performance data-points for individuals.

Brand Shopping Non-Brand

$2Sales

$1Sales

$0Sales

Page 20: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Step 3: Performance data-points for campaigns as part of teams.

Brand Shopping

$4

§ Counterfactual Gain– Brand alone makes $2 in sales.

– Shopping alone makes $1 in sales.

– The two of them make $4 in sales.

§ Brand’s counterfactual gain, i.e. what Brand brings as a value add, is therefore the total sales, minus what Shopping would have achieved on its own.

§ Brand’s counterfactual gain, in a group with Shopping, is $4 - $1 = $3.– Similarly Shopping’s counterfactual is the total sales, minus

what Brand would have had on its own.

§ Shopping’s counterfactual gain, in a team with Brand, is $4 - $2 = $2.

Page 21: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Step 3: Performance data-points for individuals as part of teams.

Brand ShoppingNon-

BrandShopping + Non-Brand

Non-Brand +Brand

Shopping +Brand

Brand +Shopping + Non-Brand

Sales $2 $1 $0 $2 $1 $4 $4

Brand $2 - - - $1 $3 $3

Shopping - $1 - $2 - $2 $2

Non-Brand - - $0 $0 $0 - $0

Coun

terf

actu

al G

ain

Page 22: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Step 4: Computing payoff for individuals from counterfactual gains, using Normalizing Factors (NFs).

Group of 1 Group of 2 Group of 3 Attributed Payout

NF 33% 16% 33% 100%

Brand $2 $2+$3=$5 $333%*$2 + 16%*$5 +

33%*$3 = $2.5

Shopping $1 $1+$2=$3 $233%*$1 + 16%*$3 +

33%*$2 = $1.5

Non-Brand $0 $0 $0 $0

Page 23: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoultonCase Studies & Examples

DATA-DRIVEN ATTRIBUTION: ADWORDS

Page 24: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Conversion Shifts To Non-Brand

Non-Brand

Brand

Conversions244

+64%

Cost / Conv$190

+12%

Click Conv. Rate0.7%

-13%

Conversions69

-63%

Cost / Conv$111

+58%

Click Conv. Rate0.7%

-24%

§ Client Type: Auto-Parts Client with a complex path to purchase.

§ What Happened? Attribution weight shifted from remarketing and brand to non-brand upper funnel terms, allowing for a focus on non-brand to drive growth.

*Date Range: 30 days Pre & Post Attribution Model Change.

Page 25: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Conversion Shifts To Brand

Non-Brand

Brand

Conversions1,246

-7.1%

Cost / Conv$31

-12.1%

Click Conv. Rate2%

+13.4%

Conversions1,450

+8.4%

Cost / Conv$1

+0.2%

Click Conv. Rate12%

+4.8%

§ Client Type: Wedding Personalization Company with a strong focus on brand search.

§ What Happened? Brand campaign has started to see more credit. May be an indicator of over-reliance on lower funnel activity.

*Date Range: 30 days Pre & Post Attribution Model Change.

Page 26: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Conversion Shifts To Mobile

Mobile

Desktop/Tablet

Conversions551

+10.4%

Cost / Conv$86

-32.4%

Click Conv. Rate1%

+52.2%

Conversions522

-13.4%

Cost / Conv$60

-6.1%

Click Conv. Rate3%

+6.7%

§ Client Type: Furniture store with a long consumer research phase pre-purchase.

§ What Happened? Heavier weighting of earlier touch points (on mobile devices) drove a number of mobile bid optimizations & increases.

*Date Range: 30 days Pre & Post Attribution Model Change.

Page 27: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

Conversion Shifts To Search From Shopping

Search

Shopping

Conversions827

+2.6%

Cost / Conv$74

-19.6%

Click Conv. Rate2%

+25.6%

Conversions218

-19.8%

Cost / Conv$442

+8.5%

Click Conv. Rate<1%

-9.4%

§ Client Type: Fast-Fashion Brand with short consideration phase.

§ What Happened? Client was overly reliant on shopping campaigns as they were close to bottom of funnel.

*Date Range: 30 days Pre & Post Attribution Model Change.

Page 28: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoultonThings to Consider

CRITICISM

Page 29: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ Google Only– While the methodology is exciting, the

model is still limited by the inputs provided. Specifically, accounting for 3rd

party ad networks (inc. Facebook) is non-existent.

§ Black Box– Without the ability to view Transaction IDs

associated with AdWords conversions, we are still trusting Google that they are fairly claiming credit across campaigns.

Criticism

Page 30: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoultonTLDR

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Page 31: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ Attribution Modeling is about looking forward to determine how to grow, not about looking back.

§ Standard Position & Rules-Based Attribution Models: Still very useful, but inherently contain bias & limit actionable insights.

§ Data-Driven Attribution– Uses Shapely Values & Counterfactual Gains to constantly adjust based

on new information available.

– Available to all AdWords accounts with at least 15,000 clicks, and 600 conversion events in past 30 days.

– Limitations: Still only ingests data from Google platforms, with no insights provided into Display or Facebook interactions.

Key Takeaways

Page 32: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

§ Director of Digital Intelligence @ Wpromote

§ Let’s Connect:– Twitter: @SPoulton

– LinkedIn: /smpoulton/– Email: [email protected]

Speaker: Simon Poulton

Page 33: Data Driven Attribution: The Future of Intelligent Measurement By Simon Poulton

#SMX #31C @SPoulton

LEARN MORE: UPCOMING @SMX EVENTS

THANK YOU! SEE YOU AT THE NEXT #SMX