date:1-may-2020- hum consultancy: founder and ceo haresh

HUM CONSULTANCY

07, Mulberry Meadows, Godrej Hill, Near Shiv Velly Building Kalyan (W), 42130199204 63113

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Date:1-May-2020-

HUM CONSULTANCY: Founder and CEO Haresh Bha�a.

Our Pillar for Selec�ng and Inves�ng any Asset Class.

HUM CONSULTANCY



April Monthly News La�er-2020

India’s Digital Journey for Next Decade started by Covid-19.

Index of News Le�er April-2020

• Indian Macro Economics Data analysis: Coming Months

we have many macro data, like India GDP of just 2% per

IMF projec�on.

• Ni�y in the month April-2020 recover from 24-3-2020

low of 7511 to �ll 9850 level. What next for ni�y-may-

2020.

• Mater Stroke by Mr Mukesh Ambani for RIL-Jio and

Facebook Deal worth of 43750 Cr for 9.99 stake in Jio

Pla�orm.

• India Pharma sector outlook- what will be new future of

Indian Pharma sector a�er 5 year of underperformance.

• Gold Outlook for 2020 as Investment or Profit Booking?

HUM CONSULTANCY



Indian Macro Economics Data analysis: Coming Months we

have many macro data, like India GDP of just 2% per IMF

projec�on.

· All macro data Publish by Govt that was already

done.But Stock market is always look Future Growth

· IN India Every year 200000 People Die due to road

accident and other construc�on ac�vi�es, But due to

Lock down of all these people save life by not going

out.

· Covid -19 Mostly affected the people above age of 60,

India has just 5% of People out 1.3 Billion people

above 60 Age.

· Top 5 central Govt USA, European,Japan ,Asian has

given $ 7 Trillion Doller package in last 2 months.

· All over the world has now only Zero to -0.5 Interest

Rate, RBI has cut 0.75 Interest Rate in last two

months.

· India GDP was in March 2019- is INR 2.8 Trillion, a�er

Lock down that GDP will fall to INR 1.8 Trillion. Which

will be top 5 Posi�on in the world of 220 countries.

HUM CONSULTANCY



· Indian Banking System Has Surplus INR 7,00,000 crore

from Rate cute and Other liquidity support from RBI.

· RBI $480 Billion Reserve, RBI will make profit of INR

48000 crore for $1 deprecia�on of from 74 to 75.

· Indian Import- Electronics, Crude, Gold.

· Every 1 $ Reduc�on in crude oil, India will save INR

11,000 Cr, $40 fall in Crude oil India saved on INR

4,40,000 Crore which will be u�lised for poor people

by Indian Government.

· India will become current account surplus from

current account deficit.

· India has 80 million tonne of food reserve with food

corpora�on of India, which is u�lized for through PDC

or ra�on shop for poor people from last one month.

· India has 3 Types of People-Government-Corporate-

Consumer. Corporate and consumer is just saving.

Only Government of India will do spending.

Warren Buffet Indicator for Inves�ng in Equity

Market For 5 Year above is Market Cap to GDP which

just 60 % as on April-2020 for Indian Market.

Ni�y and Sensex Outlook for Next few Months

Ni�y Weekly Chart-30-4-2020

Data Source: Spider So�ware

HUM CONSULTANCY



HUM CONSULTANCY



Index Weightage By Sector Wise

Ni�y-50 Weightage 31/03/2020

Financial Services 36.51

Informa�on Technology 15.1

Consumer Goods 14.56

Oil and Gas 12.44

Automobile 4.53

Telecom 3.13

Construc�on 2.79

Pharma 2.72

Metal 2.52

Power 2.28

Cement 2.22

Services 0.54

Others 0.85

Data Source: Nse India

Indian Market in April-2020 30 April 2020 31 March 2020 % Change

Sensex 33717 29815 13%

Ni�y 9859 8596 15%

Ni�y Bank 21534 19144 12%

Ni�y-500 8012.90 6996 15%

Ni�y-Mid-Cap 13502.00 11703 15%

Ni�y-Small-Cap 4078.00 3594 13%

Ni�y Technology 14108.35 12763 11%

Ni�y-Energy 13154.70 11125 18%

Ni�y FMGC 28669.30 27319 5%

Ni�y Auto 5901.40 4731 25%

Ni�y Pharma 9327.10 7176 30%

Ni�y Metal 1859.90 1585 17%

NIFTY Realty 187.30 175 7% Data Source: Spider So�ware

India has started the digital journey for next decade from

April-2020 due to Covid-19, Global event. Big Boy by Market

capitalisa�on of Ni�y and Sensex Reliance Industries Ltd - Its

Subsidiaries JIO PLATFORM with FACEBOOK. Facebook has

purchased 9.99 stake in Jio Pla�orm For INR 43747 Crore.

Indian central bank has done Interest Rate cut by .75bps and

injected the liquidity of 5 Lakh crore through Easy monetary

policy. Market s�ll wait for more measure through fiscal

policy from Govt of India for various sectors of Indian

economy.

Indian Market (Ni�y-50) is up 9859 (15%) and BSE Sensex

33717 (13%) in the month of April-2020. Ni�y has formed

low of 9958 in March-2018 and 10586-10600 in September-

2019.BSE Sensex had formed Low of 32483 in March-18 and

36105 in September-2019.

Coming month ni�y will face hurdle or CAP on Upside at

9950-10000, If 10000 crossed than we have 10586 to 10750.

On Downside Ni�y 8600-9000 Very Good Level Support for

Buying for fresh investment in coming months

Coming month BSE Sensex will face hurdle or CAP on Upside

at 33291-33500,If 34000 crossed than we have 36100 to

36400.

On Downside Sensex 29700-30600 Very Good Support Level

for Buying for fresh investment in coming months

HUM CONSULTANCY



About Reliance Industries Ltd-From-1975-2020. From

Tex�le -Oil Gas-Retail-Telecom- Digital Leader.

Mater Stroke by Mr Mukesh Ambani

RIL-Jio and Facebook Deal worth of 43750 Cr for 9.99 stake in

Jio Pla�orm, with this deal JIO valua�on become INR 450000

CR out of total Market Cap of 929000 CR. Jio is almost half of

market cap Reliance Industries Ltd.

Facebook Will have 300Millin Indian user- What up has 400

Million ac�ve Indian user, Instagram Has 1500 Million Ac�ve

user,Jio has 3800 Million subscribers Indian.

Reliance Jio Pla�orms Limited

(Access to Digital Revolu�on to 1.2 Billion People)

· Since Sept-2016-RIL-Jio is part of Every Indian Family

· RIL- Jio has given access Digital Access to Many Indian

who has earlier not part of India Growth Story

· RIL-Jio Rural India has access to Internet with Just-

INR-100 P.M

· RIL-Jio Rural Indian children's access for Educa�on

through Internet

· RIL-Jio Rural Indian Farmers has access to New

Farming technique through Inter

· RIL-Jio Rural Indians to access be�er Health care

service.

HUM CONSULTANCY



March-2019-Sales from Digital and Retail is 25 % v/s to 5% in 2016

Sales-2019 Amount Core Margin

Refining 3,93,988 5%

Petrochemicals 1,72,065 19%

Organized Retail 1,30,566 4%

Digital Services 48,660 18%

Others 22,151 6%

Oil and Gas 5,005 -28%

51%

22%

17%

6% 3% 1%

Sales-2019

Refining

Petrochemicals

Organized Retail

Digital Services

Others

Oil and Gas

HUM CONSULTANCY



Future Growth Engine is Digital

• RIL started journey from Tex�le and Polyester in 1970 to

1990

• By 2000 he quickly shi�ed through acquisi�on Indian

Petrochemical industry to Jamnagar Refinery.

• By 2016 RIL started Telecom Opera �on with JIO and he

know digital is future of growth for next 10 to 20 year.

• Now Jio and Facebook started journey of digital India for

1.3 Billion people with Mul� fold growth for all of us in

next decade.

• AS on March-2019-RIL-Profits is 40000 Cr with this any

one will can be just guess profit figure on 2030.

• Reliance will save Interest of 8000 Cr which will increase

profit figure, from Jio stake sale 43750 Crore and 50000

crore right issue.

• Next Few year India will have big Tech Company called

JIO.Like Alibaba in China, Google,Amazon,Microso�,

from United State.

Data source: From Annual Report and Company Exchange filling for Jio and Facebook Details.

HUM CONSULTANCY



India Pharma sector outlook

what will be new future of Indian Pharma sector a�er 5

year of underperformance?

Pharma index has broken Monthly posi�ve close a�er 5

year of downward from 14000 to 6300 level.

This has trend changed from long term prospec�ve.

On Upside pharma Index can upto 11000 to 12500 level in

next two year �me.

On downside 8600-8800 is very good level for Pharma

Mutual Investment opportunity. Now Fundamental also

suppor�ve.

Individual stocks can be very risky to due US FDA approval

many other risk in the business.

HUM CONSULTANCY



Indian Pharma Sector Listed Inclusion:

• Hospital

• Diagnosis Company or Pathology Centre for tes�ng

• Medicine Company

• Formula�on Companies –Contract Manufacturing

• Insurance Sector-Heath Insurance Sector

Policy Support: Govt ini�a�ve: “Pharma Vision 2020” to

make India a global leader in manufacturing.

• India has established itself as a global manufacturing

and research hub in pharmaceu�cal space.

HUM CONSULTANCY



• India contributes around 10% of the world produc�on

volume.

• Around 70% of its revenue comes from sale of generic

drugs, of which around 50% comes from exports.

• Indian Pharma companies have two dis�nct

businesses.

• Domes�c business contributes significantly and is

growing at double digit.

• Indian Pharmaceu�cal Companies have equally

important and growing exports business.

• The cost of se�ng up a produc�on plant in India is 40

per cent lower than in Western countries. Labour costs

are 50–55% cheaper than in Western countries.

• India has the 2nd largest number of USFDA-approved

manufacturing plants outside the US, with 2633 FDA-

Approved Drug Products.

Why it has Up 25% so much in two week Because of Under

Ownership by Many Investor.

• Foreign Ins�tu�on Investor

• Many Index Equity Fund - Due to just low Weightage in

Ni�y-50 Index V/S Bank Weightage-36 %

• Many PMS Fund Manager

HUM CONSULTANCY



HUM CONSULTANCY



• Global ETF Investor Due to just 2.75 V/S Bank

Weightage-36 %

• Many Individual And HNI Investor

Pharma Sector Weight Increase in coming Year in Ni�y-50

• Due to Covid-19 Many companies will faced earning

decline From Banking, IT, NBFC sector

• Pharma Sector Earning will increase compare other

sector Due to shi� the business from all over world to

India

• We have see similar Trend in last 5 year In chemical

Sector also, We expect similar trend will now play

Pharma also.

• Pharma Sector Weightage in Ni�y at 3 % near 2008

Low V/s Banking 36% V/s IT sector 15 % and FMGC

14.45 % As on 31.3-2020.

How One Should Capitalise This?

• As trend change for Pharma Index on Long term Basis

A�er 5 year of Ni�y Underperformance.

• One should Capitalise through Pharma Sector Mutual

Fund Instead of Stocks Specific. As it very Difficult for

Individual Investor to select One or two stock.

• Through Pharma Fund Individual Stock Selec�on Also

Reduced.

• Individual can allocate 5% to 8% of Por�olio to this

sector Mutual Fund.

• ICICI Pharma PHD FUND- Details are below

Gold Outlook for 2020 as Investment or Profit Booking?

HUM CONSULTANCY



HUM CONSULTANCY



Data Source-Spider So�ware

Year Gold USD % Change Gold INR % Change INR % Change Sensex

% Change

2010 1421 20728 44.91 20509

2011 1565 10% 27329 32% 53.49 19% 15454 -25%

2012 1675 7% 30859 13% 55.16 3% 19426 26%

2013 1201 -28% 28422 -8% 62.16 13% 21170 9%

2014 1183 -1% 26703 -6% 63.47 2% 27499 30%

2015 1060 -10% 24931 -7% 66.35 5% 26117 -5%

2016 1150 8% 27445 10% 68.10 3% 26626 2%

2017 1306 14% 29156 6% 64.2 -6% 34056 28%

2018 1278 -2% 31391 8% 69.94 9% 36068 6%

2019 1519 19% 39108 25% 71.54 2% 41254 14%

Apr-20 1750 15% 45546 16% 75.95 6% 33717 -18%

· In India Gold has given almost posi�ve return due to

our currency deprecia�on INR

· Technical also Gold has lower range of 37000 -35000

which 25% down from CMP 45500.

HUM CONSULTANCY



· Due to Recession of Global Economy Gold in $ Term is

up 67 % in terms from 1046 in 2015 to 1750 in April-

2020.

· Indian Gold is Up 79% from 25000 in 2015 to 45500 �ll

date.

· In Long term Gold should be part of asset alloca�on of

every individual 5% to 7% of por�olio.

· For Short Term Gold might correct 38000 -35000 in for

next one year for buying opportunity in long term.

Disclaimer

• While due care has been taken in preparing the above Analysis, no responsibility

can be or is assumed for any consequences resul�ng out of ac�ng on it.

• This Document or report only for Educa�on purpose not for any investment advise

or recommenda�on.

• Please Consult with your Financial Advisor before ac�ng on this.

• HUM Consultancy Do not take any responsibility for that.

• Mutual Funds investment subject to stock market risk. Please Read offer document

carefully before Inves�ng.

• Hum consultancy is only Publish Report for market related educa�on purpose.

date:1-may-2020- hum consultancy: founder and ceo haresh

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