The environment for policing and

law enforcement out to 2030:

what do experts think?

ASPI Strategic Policing and Law Enforcement Program

Dr David ConnerySenior Analyst

Clare MurphyResearcher

Mercedes PageResearch Intern

Anticipating 2015:

a view from 2002

Sources: Intergenerational Report 2002, Intergenerational Report 2015

Budget Paper No 1 (2015)

75

80

85

90

95

100

Male Female

Life expectancy Australia 2042/45

Prediction for 2042 in 2002

Prediciton for 2045 in 2015

10

15

20

25

Millions

Australian population

Predicted 2002

Estimated 2015

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

Percent of GDP

Fiscal balance

Preducted 2002

Actual 2015

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

$Tr

Australian GDP

Predicted 2002

Actual 2015

Hot topics for 2015 – as seen from

2000

• Internet

– Innovation

– E-commerce

• Science

– Biotechnology

– Replacement of fossil fuels

• US-China relations

• Knowledge economy

– Business intelligence

– Disaggregation of business units

• Social values

– How people respond to disaster,

climate change

– Changing employment patters

and attitudes to jobs

– Social stability

– Inflation and unemployment

• Globalisation

– World commodity prices, esp. oil

– China’s changing role

– Leadership in business

– Ethics and transparency

– Life-long learning

– Immigration and migration

– Fundamentalism

– Exchange rate behaviour

What was not empathised or perhaps missed?

• Smartphones and connectivity

• Individualism, especially in social relationships

• Mass casualty and lone actor terrorism

• Cyber-crime

Source: Global Business Network, Alternative Scenarios for 2015 (1999)

Scope

• Futures thinking and decision-making

• Four key trends

• So what?

How do you make decisions

when there is no hard evidence?

• Making policy is about influencing future behaviour

– Topic and tools might differ, but the object is the same

• Futures thinking and decision-making are entwined

– ‘Educating the intellect’

– Analysis of alternate paths

– Maintaining agility: change faster than the competition

• Futures studies and intelligence: related but slightly different

– Intelligence as information analysed to meet a need, or a process

– Tends to be focused on immediate concerns (but note ‘strategic

intelligence’), less speculative hand seeking to advise, and classified

– Futures studies are techniques that can help illuminate uncertainty

• Some analysis is better than a SWAG

Horizon scanning

“A deliberate or purposeful strategic planning activity where

emerging changes and developments are analysed to

identify events, trends and drivers (collectively, ‘factors‘) that

may shape an organisation‘s future operating environment

and so its policy, research and strategic agendas”

Source: D. Connery, ‘Horizon Scanning: Enhancing Strategic

Insight for National Security Policymaking’ Security Challenges (2013)

Looking to 2030

•How might our definition of crime change?

•How might criminal activity change?

• What opportunities might technologyprovide?

• What threats might technology create?

• How quick will new technology manifest?

• How will international society change?

• What calls might this change make upon Australian law

enforcement?

• What will the Australian people expect of police and law enforcement?

• What will our society look like?

AustraliaInternational

system

CrimeTechnology

Australia in 2030:

a different kind of place

• Australian economy grows at 2.8%

• Labour force as a proportion of population: 3 workers to one retiree (currently 5:1)

• Manufacturing continues to decline, services increase

• Return to surplus?

Slower growth, fiscal challenges, services

economy

• 29 million people

• 43% have one parent born overseas

• 18 million live in cities

More and more diverse urban

dwellers

• Population aged over 65 will be twice that of today.

• 85 y.o. = three time today

• 75% obese or big boned

• 50% more Bachelors degrees

Greyer, fatter, smarter

• Greater role for civil society as watchdogs, policy analysts

• More online government services

• Greater transparency – intentional or not

Interconnected polity

So what?Public expectations

Funding base

Recruiting base

Health and ageing

Australian Government, 2015 Intergenerational report

Grattan Institute, Game changers: economic reform priorities for Australia, 2012

Group of 8, Future demand for higher education in Australia, 2012

World Economic Forum, The future role of civil society, 2013

The international system in 2030:

bigger, busier, less equal concrete jungles

Inequality

Climate change

UrbanisationInstability

Rising Asia: bigger, richer,

near

So what?New and expanded

law enforcement challenges

Influence sources and routes

for transnational crime

Increased goods and service

traffic

UK Ministry of Defence, Global strategic trends 2045

Australian and Canadian governments, The future of Asia: forces of change and potential surprises

Australian Army, Future land warfare report 2014

Australian Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Transport security outlook to 2025

Clingendael, An uncertain world: strategic threats monitor 2013

Jort Hemmer, Fragile states strategic monitor

KPMG, Future state 2030

Technology in 2030:

Out tech’d, not outgunned

1. Rapid changes in biotech,

nanotech and robotics

2. Convergence, connectivity,

collaboration

3. More sense from data,

structured or not

4. Better, faster decisions as

artificial intelligence approaches

5. Enhanced human performance

So what?

Technology alone will not drive competitive advantage

New operating methods will become possible: but useable?

In-house technology development likely to be increasingly problematic

Serious & Organised Crime in 2030:

crime, done differently

Hiding crime in plain sight

Exploiting new and emerging

technology

Global links –transnational relationships

So what?

SOC is not going away

Early adopters

Measure-countermeasure

Speed, depth, reach

Changing conceptions of crime

Trust as a critical enabler

Europol, Exploring tomorrow’s organised crime, 2015

FATF, Virtual currencies: key definitions and potential AML/CFT risks, 2014

RAND, Visions of law enforcement technology 2024–34, 2015

Lots we haven’t covered, like…

• New energy technologies

• Additive manufacturing (wait – that’s coming)

• Sharing economy

• Synthetic biology

• Breakthroughs in cryptology

• Crypto currency

• Resource and heritage crime

• Corruption

CSIRO, Our future world

Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Forward 2035

EMC Corporation, The digital universe in 2020

IBIS World, Australia’s digital future to 2050

RAND, Visions of law enforcement technology 2024–34

UK Ministry of Defence, Global strategic trends 2045

UK Government, Emerging technologies: big data

Discontinuities

Concept development

DELAYED

NOTIFICATION

ORGANISED CRIME

So what?

• Shaping the debate about the future of law

enforcement

• Investment plans needed

• International cooperation

• Partnering with business, academia and

think tanks

Like what you see?Be part of our conversation.

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