david wood

Connections for abrave new world

David Wood@dw2

Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futuristslondonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

The surprising changes ahead

@dw2

Opportunities

Threats

The set of

possiblefutures

Foresight…

… is hard

@dw2

“History does not repeat itself,but it rhymes”

Attributed to

Mark Twain, novellist

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

@dw2

Changes in the last 10 years

2005

20155 times faster

5 times cheaper

5 times smaller

Smartphones

Computing+++

1993

Barry Ritkoltz

1993

2013

Barry Ritkoltz

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-2013/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-2013/

@dw2

http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/

@dw2

http://edge.org/conversation/the-technium

Kevin KellyCo-founder, Wired

There’s a sense that all the big things have happened –

but relatively speaking, nothing big has happened yet.

We’re just at the beginning of the beginning of all these kind of

changes

The next 20 years are going to make this last 20 years just pale

http://edge.org/conversation/the-technium

@dw2

BN

CI

NBIC Convergence

@dw2

Atoms Genes

Bits Neurons

Bio-Tech

Nano-Tech

Cogno-Tech

ICT

Software

Hardware

BiologyPhysical

@dw2

Physical + Virtual

VR -> AR

MOOCs, cryptocurrency…

Deep machine learning

Hybrid intelligence

Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…

Cyborgs

3AI + Human Intelligence

Human + MachineSoftware + Biology

Synthetic biology

Genetic engineering

4

2 1

4 great convergences

@dw2

Accelerating technology

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence

Extra healthExtra longevity

Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Unemployment

Extra opportunities Existential risks

Benefits individuals

Threatens society

Positive

feedback

@dw2

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence


Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Unemployment



Threatens society

Discussion

Progress will run out of steam?Unlikely!

(Unless society disintegrates)

We could pull the plug if we want(?)Unlikely!

There are too many good aspects of technological advancement

@dw2

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence


Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Unemployment



Threatens society

If we allow individuals to enhance themselves

through smart R&D and free enterprise– without government interference –

the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product

1

Twocontrasting

views possible

1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive

@dw2

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F0.I.1.pdf

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-

2012.pdf

Thomas Piketty

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F0.I.1.pdf

http://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2012.pdf

@dw2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/theres-been-class-warfare-for-the-last-20-years-and-my-class-has-won/2011/03/03/gIQApaFbAL_blog.html

There’s been class warfare going on for the last 20 years, and my class has won. We’re

the ones that have gotten our tax rates reduced dramatically

Warren Buffett,Investor, “Sage of Omaha”,

2011

Top 400 taxpayers Average income Tax rate

1992 $40M 29%

2010 $227M 21%

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/theres-been-class-warfare-for-the-last-20-years-and-my-class-has-won/2011/03/03/gIQApaFbAL_blog.html

@dw2


Reduces prices

Increases inequality

Positive

feedback

Creates practical abundance

@dw2

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5


@dw2

128MB 128GB

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-now-and-then.html slide 2

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-now-and-then.html

@dw2



@dw2

http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-v1

http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-v1

@dw2

Source: “Exponential

Organizations”

exponentialorgs.com

http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-

organizations-h

http://www.exponentialorgs.com/

http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-organizations-h

@dw2


Reduces prices

Increases inequality

Positive

feedback

Creates practical abundance

Enables fabulous new functionality

Initially still at exorbitant pricesMany people will be excluded & alienated

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html

“The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats”– Nick Hanauer

Rich individuals rapidly improve…

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html

@dw2

Enhancing humans

Extra intelligence


Extra experience

Disturbing humanity

Worse terrorism

Worse surveillance

Worse climate

Unemployment



Threatens society

If we allow individuals to enhance themselves

through smart R&D and free enterprise– without government interference –

the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product

Alongside smart R&D and the powerof free enterprise, we also need

wise regulation and smart governance

1

2

and new social systems

Twocontrasting

views possible

1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive

Connections for abrave new world

David Wood@dw2

Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futuristslondonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com

The surprising changes ahead

david wood

Documents

dw2 page

dw2 principal

novellist http

barry ritkoltz http

society discussion progress

society positive feedback

surprising changes

wired theres