dawson_presentation_ceri 2015 petrochemical conference
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Ceri Presentation 2015 Petrochemical confTRANSCRIPT
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Williams Energy Canada: Propane Dehydrogenation in Alberta: Challenging, But Possible
CERI Petrochemical Conference: June 2015
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.2 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference 2015
Forward-looking statements
The reports, filings, and other public announcements of The Williams Companies, Inc. (Williams) and Williams Partners L.P. (WPZ) may contain or incorporate by
reference statements that do not directly or exclusively relate to historical facts. Such statements are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A
of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. We make these forward looking statements in
reliance on the safe harbor protections provided under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You typically can identify forward-looking statements by
various forms of words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “seeks,” “could,” “may,” “should,” “continues,” “estimates,” “expects,” “assumes,” “forecasts,” “intends,”
“might,” “goals,” “objectives,” “targets,” “planned,” “potential,” “projects,” “scheduled,” “will,” “guidance,” “outlook,” “in service date” or other similar expressions. These
forward-looking statements are based on management's beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management and include, among others,
statements regarding:
> Amounts and nature of future capital expenditures;
> Expansion and growth of our business and operations;
> Financial condition and liquidity;
> Business strategy;
> Cash flow from operations or results of operations;
> The levels of dividends to Williams stockholders and of cash distributions to WPZ unitholders;
> Seasonality of certain business components;
> Natural gas, natural gas liquids, and olefins prices, supply, and demand; and
> Demand for our services
Forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions, uncertainties and risks that could cause future events or results to be materially different from
those stated or implied in this presentation. Many of the factors that will determine these results are beyond our ability to control or predict. Specific factors that could
cause actual results to differ from results contemplated by the forward-looking statements include, among others, the following:
> Whether Williams has sufficient cash to enable it to pay current and expected levels of dividends;
> Whether WPZ has sufficient cash from operations to enable it to pay current and expected levels of cash distributions, if any, following establishment of cash
reserves and payment of fees and expenses, including payments to WPZ’s general partner;
> Availability of supplies, market demand, and volatility of prices;
> Inflation, interest rates, and, in the case of Williams, fluctuation in foreign exchange and general economic conditions (including future disruptions and volatility in
the global credit markets and the impact of these events on our customers and suppliers);
> The strength and financial resources of our competitors and the effects of competition;
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.3 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference 2015
Forward-looking statements continued
> Ability to acquire new businesses and assets and integrate those operations and assets into our existing businesses, as well as successfully expand
our facilities;
> Development of alternative energy sources;
> The impact of operational and development hazards and unforeseen interruptions;
> Costs of, changes in, or the results of laws, government regulations (including safety and environmental regulations), environmental liabilities, litigation,
and rate proceedings;
> Williams’ costs and funding obligations for defined benefit pension plans and other postretirement benefit plans sponsored by its affiliates;
> WPZ’s allocated costs for defined benefit pension plans and other post retirement benefit plans sponsored by its affiliates;
> Changes in maintenance and construction costs;
> Changes in the current geopolitical situation;
> Our exposure to the credit risk of our customers and counterparties;
> Risks related to strategy and financing, including restrictions stemming from our debt agreements, future changes in our credit ratings and the availability and
cost of capital;
> The amount of cash distributions from and capital requirements of our investments and joint ventures in which we participate.
> Risks associated with weather and natural phenomena, including climate conditions;
> Acts of terrorism, including cybersecurity threats and related disruptions; and
> Additional risks described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Given the uncertainties and risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, we caution
investors not to unduly rely on our forward-looking statements. We disclaim any obligations to and do not intend to update the above list or to announce publicly the
result of any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements to reflect future events or developments.
In addition to causing our actual results to differ, the factors listed above may cause our intentions to change from those statements of intention set forth in this
announcement. Such changes in our intentions may also cause our results to differ. We may change our intentions, at any time and without notice, based upon
changes in such factors, our assumptions, or otherwise.
With respect to WPZ, limited partner interests are inherently different from the capital stock of a corporation, although many of the business risks to which we are
subject are similar to those that would be faced by a corporation engaged in a similar business.
Investors are urged to closely consider the disclosures and risk factors in Williams’ and WPZ’s annual reports on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on Feb. 27, 2013,
and each of our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q available from our offices or from our websites at www.williams.com and www.williamslp.com.
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference, 2015
Williams Assets & Operations
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.5 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference, 2015
Unique Business
Williams Energy Canada
> Our Vision: Increase the value of stranded or underutilized NGL’s and olefins by utilizing our unique assets, unique experience, and strategic relationships.
> Produce NGLs and olefins from oil sands offgas
> Offgas used as fuel in upgrader or processed
– Processing offgas removes higher value NGLs and olefins
> Significant environmental benefits– CO2 emissions reduction from
Suncor/Horizon: 0.5 million tonnes per year in 2015
– Significant SO2 emissions reduction
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.6 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) Project Update
> Converts propane into polymer grade propylene (PGP)
> Plans for 2 PDH plants
– 525 kTa capacity (1.1 billion lbs/yr of PGP) each
– >$1 billion CAD capex for each plant
– Anticipated start-up times
• PDH1: late-2018
• PDH2: to be determined
> PDH technology has been selected
– UOP Oleflex
> Regulatory approval received
> Completed FEED work
> Site works is underway
> Formal negotiations progressing with one company for PGP offtake from PDH 1
– ~75 kTa of PGP still available for offtake from PDH1
> In discussions with multiple parties for PGP offtake from PDH2
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.7 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
PDH Project Update…continuedStripping and Storing Topsoil
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.8 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference, 2015
Company Capacity (kta)Expected / Announced
Start-upMarket Intelligence
Dow 750 Q3-2015Assumed to be dedicated to derivative plant;
under construction
Enterprise 750 Q4-2016Announced fee-type deals;
under construction
REXpro 300 2017 Cancelled
Ascend1,000
(2 plants)2019+ Not financed, no off-taker
Formosa Plastics 650 2018 Construction has started
Williams (Canada)
525 2019 Dedicated to derivative plant
Sunoco Logistics Under evaluation
Other PDH Projects in North America
Strategic Value & Market Dynamics
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.9 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Advantages of a Williams PDH in Alberta
> Traditionally advantaged propane feedstock
> Access to Asian markets
> Traditional Alberta propane markets shrinking
– Bakken, Utica, and Marcellus production, Cochin pipeline reversal
> Only producer of polymer grade propylene (PGP) in Canada
– Significant storage, handling and distribution facilities and expertise in place
> Established PGP market presence
> Complementary to U.S. PGP production
> Local hydrogen market for by-product stream
> Synergies with Williams existing facilities in Alberta and USGC
– Unique offgas fractionation facilities provide high value outlet for butane/butylene co-product
– PGP distribution hub in USGC
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.10 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
$1,101 / MT
$989 / MT
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
$US/MT
Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons
Low cost Alberta PDH-sourced PGP creates highly competitive PP on a global basis
• An integrated Alberta polypropylene plant would have one of the lowest cash costs of any plant in North America
• The base case margin of $622/MT would generate margins of $280 million/yr
• The large amount of naphtha based PGP supply supports global prices and high margins for North American producers with a feedstock advantage
US Price$1,729 / MT
Alberta PP Cash Costs(@ 25 cpg diff)
$1,216 / MT
Base Case Alberta PP Margin of $628/MT with
range of $513 to $740/MT
IHS 2014 Competitive Cost & Margin Analytics – Polypropylene; Williams Energy Canada
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.11 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
$US/MT
Cumulative Production - Million Metric Tons
Source: IHS 2014 Competitive Cost & Margin Analytics – Polypropylene; Williams Energy Canada
Alberta produced PP integrated with PDH-sourced PGP will be among the lowest cost NA producers
$1,216 / MT0.00
• An integrated Alberta polypropylene plant would have one of the lowest cash costs of any plant in North America per IHS
• Due in part to the linkage of the PGP offtake price to the Edmonton propane price discount to Mt. Belvieu, an Alberta plant remains competitive with a Gulf Coast plant even in the scenario with a flat Edmonton basis
US PP Price$1,729/MT
$986 / MT(0.50)
$1,101 / MT(0.25)
Albert Integrated Polypropylene Plant – Cash Cost $US/MT
Edm-MB Basis ($US/gal)
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.12 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Source: Williams Energy Canada, Pembina, Plains, Keyera
Expected growth in the WCSB NGL supply has spurred major fractionation capacity additions
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bbl/d Planned Alberta Propane Fractionation Capacity
Pembina RFS 3
Plains
Williams Offgas
Dow
Keyera
Pembina RFS 2
Pembina RFS 1
Plains Expansion
PDH I Requirement
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.13 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Propylene Derivatives in Alberta
> Between PDH units and offgas-produced PGP, Williams’ PGP production in Alberta will be sufficient to support 2 world-scale polypropylene plants with additional volume for other derivative units.
– Economic advantage to building in Alberta
• Lower cost PGP, Government CCA program
> Export PGP derivative off West Coast to access Asian markets• Option if North America propylene market becomes over-supplied
11 days
23 days
38 days
16 days
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.14 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Propylene Derivatives – Market Share & Growth
> Polypropylene (68%)…plastics films, fibers, packaging (4.8%/yr)
> Acrylonitrile (7%) …Acrylic fibers, ABS resins, nylon (2.2%/yr)
> Propylene Oxide(7%) … Antifreeze, polyurethane foams(3.4%/yr)
> Cumene to Phenol(4%) …Epoxy Resins, Polycarbonate(4.7%/yr)
> Acrylic Acid(4%)…Paints, coatings, hygienic products(5.2%/yr)
> Others (10%)…Plasticizers, coatings, solvents, acetone, detergent, pharmaceuticals, gasoline(2.5%/yr)
> Note: Source IHS Global Inc.
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.15 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Market Access/Relative Value for Propylene Derivatives
> Multiple Buyers– Easier to shift to higher priced markets with minimal changes to infrastructure
– Standardized products accepted around the world
> 22,000 bpd of propane to propylene equivalent to
~110,000 bpd bitumen export value
> 22,000 bpd of propane to polypropylene equivalent to
~140,000 bpd bitumen export value
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.16 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
PDH Environmental Considerations
> Technology was selected due reduced environmental impact:
– Reduced water usage due to areal coolers vs cooling water
– Lower electrical power consumption
– Less noxious waste material
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.17 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Challenges of PDH in Alberta Compared to the USGC
> Higher capital cost
> Uncertain business climate
> Feedstock (propane) price uncertainty due to potential propane export terminals
> Derivative partner/offtaker complications
– Derivative plant has no other PGP supply options
> Complex OSBL situation
– Long lead time for grid connection
– Lack of utility water infrastructure
© 2014 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.18 Williams: CERI Petrochemical Conference | 2015
Future Opportunities
> PDH is on the cusp….but we’ll do it!– Capital costs moving favorably
> PDH 2
> PDH 3?
> PDH in Canada still looks strong