day.1
DESCRIPTION
day.1. TEDSS , Decision Types, Phases & DSS 1b TEDDS illustrates decision types supported by DSS ( WSJ : More Efficient Exodus ) 13 benefits of building DSS - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
DECISION SUPPORT &
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
The New Science of Management Decision Herbert Simon
(1960)Wall Street Journal -Exodus (30Sep05)
Wall Street Journal -Terrorist (17Feb06)Caspian Sea Pipeline Project (2012)
ProQuest assignment: analytic hierarchy process
TEDSS Case
young field
still dynamic
day.1TEDSS, Decision Types, Phases & DSS
1b TEDDS illustrates decision types supported by DSS (details: More Efficient Exodus, WSJ)13 benefits of building DSS (similar: regression)
S-1 the journey into decision making will lead to a major revolution in management and organization (observed in
CIO cases)2 TERRAIN MAP of decision making is needed because:
S-2 different (IT) techniques are required for different phases of the journey
3 TYPES OF DECISIONSS-3a Programmed (routine sequence of responses so studied / programmed)
S-3b opportunity use ITS to program decisions (TPS, MIS JIT)
S-3a Nonprogrammed (unique & ill-structured) S-3c require flexible / interactive (IT) techniques (DSS, AI)
4 In reality, decisions exist in continuum requiring a complement of ITS: PG &Vanity Fair used DSS (Stonyfield : Access) to access & analyze information from TPS & IOS S.4
5.a PHASES OF DECISIONS S-6.2 complex / unstructured problems are typically encountered in design
& choice phases of nonprogrammed decisions DSS(AI) useful
Assignment: proquest search
(analyic hierarchy process)
Build:Buzzsaw; Dock:Sparks; Home:TEDDS,PredictTerrorist,N-Site; Indian:Covisint,DBMS; Jackpot:WiNet,Celtics; Rx:CPOE-EMR
2 WHAT IS A DSS?6.1 flexible/interactive ITS support complex/ill-structured DM6.2 typically applied to design/choice in nonprogrammed decisions
6.3 AHP is an example 8 momentous changes for (complex/ill-structured) DM ProQuest shows applied to many diverse decisions
9 AHP developed to assist DM evaluate (design / choice phases of) complex judgmental (involving qualitative criteria) problems7 Analytic (decompose into components) Hierarchy (organize into hierarchical structure) Process (simpler pair-wise comparisons) 13 Simple, Intuitive, Powerful 9 understanding (components of decision)
10 management of complexity (hierarchical structure, simpler choices) 11 sophistication / speed of information processing (infers priorities
from series of simple choices)14a EC applied to spouse choice demonstrates DSS & components
assignment: use EC to weight presentation criteria 16 integrated into GDSS (Ranking Technical Managers)
DSS extended by groupware & telecommunications
design
choice
day.2
GDSS
16.a What is GDSS?17 Hiring technical manager is complex, ill- structured, team
decision 18 Design and choice phases of GDSS
relate to table handouts22 Benefits of GDSS
day.3
A Decision Support System to Save Lives
1. You cannot see, hear, or smell nuclear radiation, but it’s deadly all the same. In 1986 about 3.5 million people in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine were exposed to it when there were two explosions in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear plant. Some of the effects are only now emerging, like the high incidence of thyroid cancer in children. Experts agree that many health problems would have been avoided if an evacuation plan had been in place.
2. To avoid such a human tragedy in Virginia, power plant administrators commissioned the development of TEDSS to assist in creating an evacuation plan in case of a nuclear power plant disaster there. TEDSS is a special type of IT system called a decision support system. If a nuclear disaster were to occur, planners can use TEDSS to quickly (speed) determine the best evacuation routes (force) and how best to notify the public of those routes
3. For TEDSS to help determine the best evacuation strategies, it uses information on multiple variables that include
The behavior of radioactive gasses, such as dispersion rates Highway system characteristics, such as number of lanes Population distributions, such as densities and the location of people with
disabilities Current weather conditions, such as wind direction
day.1
4. If this information were static, administrators would have no need for a decision support system because the evacuation route would be developed once and the job would be done. However, the information fluctuates constantly depending on the time of day, time of year, and meteorological and economic conditions. Population densities also change, as does the highway system. The task, then, is to analyze all the information given the specific conditions of the moment, find the best solution, and find it quickly.
5. Some of the information that TEDSS needs resides within the power plant organization, such as the layout of the power plant, information on deadly gasses, and the escalation rate of the accident. Other information is supplied by state agencies and other external sources.
6. By processing this information in its simulation models, TEDSS provides output — some of it in graphic form — on the following factors:
Evacuation routes and paths from any origin to assigned shelters Projected volumes of traffic on the highway system Highways that may become severely blocked by radiation The time that will have elapsed before the last vehicle clears the area
7. With these outputs produced by TEDSS, planners can evaluate traffic management strategies, such as one-way operation of highways, shoulder use, and flashing signals to reduce traffic congestion and to improve evacuation time.
A Decision Support System to Save Lives1. You cannot see, hear, or smell nuclear radiation, but it’s deadly all the same. In 1986 about 3.5 million people in Belarus,
Russia, and Ukraine were exposed to it when there were two explosions in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear plant. Some of the effects are only now emerging, like the high incidence of thyroid cancer in children. Experts agree that many health problems would have been avoided if an evacuation plan had been in place.
2. To avoid such a human tragedy in Virginia, power plant administrators commissioned the development of TEDSS to assist in creating an evacuation plan in case of a nuclear power plant disaster there. TEDSS is a special type of IT system called a decision support system. If a nuclear disaster were to occur, planners can use TEDSS to quickly determine the best evacuation routes and how best to notify the public of those routes
3. For TEDSS to help determine the best evacuation strategies, it uses information that includes The behavior of radioactive gasses, such as dispersion rates Highway system characteristics, such as number of lanes Population distributions, such as densities and the location of people with disabilities Current weather conditions, such as wind direction
4. If this information were static, administrators would have no need for a decision support system because the evacuation route would be developed once and the job would be done. However, the information fluctuates constantly depending on the time of day, time of year, and meteorological and economic conditions. Population densities also change, as does the highway system. The task, then, is to analyze all the information given the specific conditions of the moment, find the best solution, and find it quickly.
5. Some of the information that TEDSS needs resides within the power plant organization, such as the layout of the power plant, information on deadly gasses, and the escalation rate of the accident. Other information is supplied by state agencies and other external sources.
6. By processing this information in its simulation models, TEDSS provides output—some of it in graphic form—on the following factors:
Evacuation routes and paths from any origin to assigned shelters Projected volumes of traffic on the highway system Highways that may become severely blocked by radiation The time that will have elapsed before the last vehicle clears the area
7. With these outputs produced by TEDSS, planners can evaluate traffic management strategies, such as one-way operation of highways, shoulder use, and flashing signals to reduce traffic congestion and to improve evacuation time.
A Decision Support System (DSS) to Save Livesillustrates types of decisions supported by DSS
Introductory CaseDSS-1.b
Evacuation planning for nuclear power plant disaster
multi-factor + dynamic
complex non-routine
unstructured
Force TEDSS Speed
color graphics output (N-GAGE, Sparks, Celtics-HO)
TEDSS.2&7
TEDSS.4TEDSS.3&5
Details: Modeling…more efficient exodus. WSJ.30Sep05
quickly at the momentbest
solution
HighCost &Benefit
TEDSS.6 simulation: regression
Figure 2: The presentation of the Surry Power Station area consists of the highway network and the protective action zones (PAZs).
NBC10.com/trafficProvides similar graphic output (based multi-variate model) that assists decision maker in selecting best route.
TEDDS: 2,7
A Decision Support System (DSS) to Save LivesIntroductory CaseDSS-1.b
Evacuation planning for nuclear power plant disaster (terrorism)
multi-factor + dynamic
complex non-routine
unstructured
Force TEDSS Speed
color graphics output (N-GAGE, Sparks, Celtics-HO)
TEDSS.2&7
TEDSS.4TEDSS.3&5
quickly at the momentbest
solution
HighCost &Benefit
N-Site(AHP)
Tools to Predict Likely Teroritst Moves. WSJ.30Sep05
DSSbenefits
s
What are the benefits of a DSS?
involves interaction between decision maker and IT system that supplements & enhances human decision making by increasing: understanding of the problem/decision by examining
intuition/judgment/experience of decision makers (spouse choice, accounting policy, terrorist activity, pipeline path)
management of complexity & lack of structure sophistication of processing capabilities speed of access to & processing of information
for an organization, the enhancement of human decision making contributes to: increasing flexibility & productivity (Dock:Sparks, DHS:N-Site) decreasing costs (Jackpot : Celtics, Rx:CPOE)
DSSDSS-13
ExcelAccessN-GAGE(AHP)
force
New Science of Management DecisionHerbert Simon (1960)
…this journey (into the decision making process) is going to lead…(to) a major revolution in the art and science of management and organization (observed in CIO cases) S.7.4
…the computer and the new decision-making techniques associated with it are bringing momentous changes like machinery brought to manual jobs
S.xi.1 Proquest
In 1960, described a terrain map of decision making that provides a framework the discussion in new millennium S.7.5
DSS.2
S-1 Introduction
What types of decisions do you face?Types of Decisions DSS-3
Structured Unstructured
Recurring
Non-recurring
Processing specific info. in specified way
No precise way to get a right answer AI (DSS)
repeatedly or periodically
infrequently
CIO assessments (N-Gage)Celtics Analytics Slam Dunk
Plant LayoutLine Balancing
ProgrammedTPS & MIS
Non-programmedSpouse Choice (N-Gage)Hiring Technical Managers … or University FacultyAccounting PolicyCaspian Sea Pipeline Path
STRUCTUREFREQUENCY
DM D
IMENSI
ONS
Different Processes for Programmed vs Nonprogrammed Decisions
My reason for making the distinction is that different techniques are used for handling the programmed and the nonprogrammed aspects of decision making S.5.3
Types of DecisionsS-2
Two Polar Types of Decisions
Programmed to the extent repetitive and routine so that a definite procedure
has been developed
S.5.4 the name is from the computer field indicating a detailed
sequence of responses exists to a complex task environment S.6.2
Nonprogrammed to the extent novel and unstructured so that no specific
procedures have been developed to respond to the situation S.6.1
general problem solving capacities (judgment, creativity, heuristics) are used to respond S.6.3
frequently ineffective and high cost so focus of DSS and AI S.6.4
Types of DecisionsS-3.a
Different Processes for Programmed vs Nonprogrammed Decisions
Programmed decisions are frequently observed so they can be studied and better understood (sales, purchases, inventory, registration, grades)
traditionally, organizations use SOP (habit) and structure (departments & committees)
S.9-10
opportunity to use IT (TPS, MIS, JIT) so focus on nonprogrammed (Gresham’s Law)
Types of DecisionsS-3.b
Different Processes for Programmed vs Nonprogrammed Decisions
Nonprogrammed decisions occur infrequently so they are less studied and less understood (spouse choice, team project assessments, accounting policy decisions, Caspian Sea pipeline path) traditionally, organizations use general problems solving
capabilities (judgment, heuristics, task forces, selection /training)
opportunity to use IT (DSS &AI ) to study & improveHuman thinking, problem solving & learning have been
mysterious processes that have been labeled but not explained
S.13.1nonprogrammed decision making will soon undergo as
fundamental a revolution as the one currently transforming programmed decisions in business organizations
S.21.1
Types of DecisionsS-3.c
Recurring Nonrecurring
Structured Nonstructured
Which supplier to use, based only on price
Probably recurring In between, if consider factors other than price
Which car insurance to buy at renewal time
Recurring In between (Continuum / Not discrete)
Whether to expand business into Eastern Europe
Nonrecurring Mostly unstructured
What plants to include in the landscaping around a new building
Nonrecurring In between (Continuum / Not discrete)
How to use tax regulations to fill out an income tax form
Recurring Unstructured if consider ethical & legal issues
How many lanes to put into a new bowling alley
Nonrecurring In between
DSS-4 Continuum of decisions, Complement of ITS
A Continuum of Decisions,A Complement of ITS
They are not really distinct types, but a whole continuum. We can find decisions of all shades of gray along the
continuum, the terms programmed and nonprogrammed are concepts that define the range S.5.3
The obvious reason why repetitive decisions tend to be programmed, and vice versa, is that if a particular problem recurs often enough, a routine procedure will usually be developed for solving it.
S.6.0
Not all IT systems and strategies are appropriate for every company or set of circumstances, but they are complementary BroadVision @CIO.com (092101)
Types of DecisionsS-4
Figure 4.3Phases of the Decision Making Process
DSS-5.a
ComplexIll-structuredSubjective
GDSS [ DSS (AI )]
N-GAGE (AHP)
Examples Hire technical manager Accounting Choices Access Assessment Spouse Choice
N-Site Pipeline
Spouse Choice
What is the Decision Making Process?
Intelligence - find what needs fixing recognizing a threat or opportunity
Design - find fixes developing possible solutions
Choice - pick a fix selecting the best solution
Implementation - apply the fix
carrying out the solution, monitoring results & adjusting
Decision ProcessDSS-5.b
Figure 4.3
Three Principal Phases of Decision Making
Decision Making Comprises Three Phases S.2.1
The first phase of the decision-making process - searching the environment for conditions requiring a decision - I shall call intelligence (borrowing the military meaning).
The second phase inventing, developing and analyzing possible courses of action - I shall call design activity.
The third phase - selecting a particular course of action - I shall call choice activity.
Decision ProcessS-5
Phases of Decision Making
Generally, intelligence activity precedes design, and design precedes choice.S.3.2
The cycle of phases is, however, far more complex than this sequence suggests. Figure 5.3
Each phase in making a particular decision is itself a complex decision-making process.
The design phase may require new intelligence activities
Problems at any given level generate subproblems that, in turn, have their intelligence, design and choice phases.
Decision ProcessS-6
DAY 2
N-GAGE
for
SPOUSE CHOICE
ENGAGEMENT
1.b WHAT IS A DSS?6.1 flexible/interactive ITS support complex/ill-structured DM6.2 typically applied to design/choice in non-program. decisions
(Spouse Choice)6.3 AHP is an example 8 momentous changes for (complex/ill-structured) DM ProQuest shows applied to many diverse decisions
9 AHP developed to assist DM evaluate design / choice phasesof complex judgmental (qualitative criteria) problems7 Analytic (decompose into components) Hierarchy (organize into hierarchical structure) Process (simpler pair-wise comparisons) 13 Simple, Intuitive, Powerful 9 understanding (components of decision)
10 management of complexity (hierarchical structure, simpler choices) 11 sophistication / speed of information processing (infers priorities
from series of simple choices)14a EC applied to spouse choice demonstrates DSS & components
assignment: use EC to weight presentation criteria 16 integrated into GDSS (Ranking Technical Managers)
DSS extended by groupware & telecommunications
design
choice
day.2
Psychological Foundation: Approach – Avoidance principle
Analytic: decompose into components
(more complete analysis)
Hierarchical Structure (smart people organize)
A B C D E F A B C D E F A B C D E FA B C D E FProcess of pairwise comparisons: (easier 2 @ time, on all criteria)
N-GAGE PROCEDURES
► Go to kennedyonline.us► Select N-Gage► Run► Run► File► New► Enter file name & description► Next► Enter # of levels under the goal ( goal is
level 0)► Next► Enter goal name & description► Done► Select Design tab► Select Criteria Select level 1► Name & describe criterion► OK► Name & describe other criteria as
previously until finished level 1
Select Criteria► Select next level (2)► Name & describe elements (alternatives)► OK► Name & describe other alternatives as
previously until finished level 2► Select goal► Select arrow button to draw relationships► Draw arrows from the goal to each criterion in
level 1► When finished drawing arrows to define
relationships at level 1, select a criterion ► Draw arrows from the criterion in level 1 to
each alternative in level 2 to be rated on that criterion
► Repeat the process for each criterion
N-GAGE PROCEDURES
► Select the Compare tab ► Double click the Goal (a pair-wise
comparison – PWC – table appears) Select the first row in the table► Compare (approach : avoidance) the
criteria using the number line► Select the next row in the table► Repeat the comparison process► OK when the comparisons are finished in
the last row of the table► Double click a criterion in level 1 (a pair-
wise comparison table appears)► Select the first row in the table ► Repeat the comparison process in the table
just as previously ► Repeat the process for each criterion► Select the Goal when finished the
comparison process for each criterion
► Select the Solution tab► The hierarch of criteria & alternatives appears
with the weights derived from the PWC process on the arrows and an IR (inconsistency ratio) in each box
► If the IR > 0.10 a “Revise IR!” statement appears in the box
► To revise the inconsistent comparisons, select the compare tab
► Then, double click on the box with the inconsistency message
► Redo the comparison process as before ► When all the inconsistencies have been
resolved, select the Goal and the select the Solution tab
► Print the hierarchy (if the hierarchy does not print on a single page, use print screen -PrtSc – to copy and past into PowerPoint or Word)
Figure 4.3Phases of the Decision Making Process
DSS-5.a
SubjectiveComplexIll-structured
GDSS [ DSS (AI )]
N-GAGE (AHP)
Examples Hire technical manager Accounting Choices Access Assessment Spouse Choice
N-Site Pipeline
Spouse Choice
DAY 3
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
1.b WHAT IS A DSS?6.1 flexible/interactive ITS support complex/ill-structured DM6.2 typically applied to design/choice in non-programmed decisions
(Spouse Choice)6.3 AHP is an example 8 momentous changes for (complex/ill-structured) DM ProQuest shows applied to many diverse decisions
9 AHP developed to assist DM evaluate design / choice phasesof complex judgmental (qualitative criteria) problems7 Analytic (decompose into components) Hierarchy (organize into hierarchical structure) Process (simpler pair-wise comparisons) 13 Simple, Intuitive, Powerful 9 understanding (components of decision)
10 management of complexity (hierarchical structure, simpler choices) 11 sophistication / speed of information processing (infers priorities
from series of simple choices)14a EC applied to spouse choice demonstrates DSS & components
assignment: use EC to weight presentation criteria 16 integrated into GDSS (Ranking Technical Managers)
DSS extended by groupware & telecommunications
design
choice
Recurring Non-recurringStructured Non-structured
DSS-2 What is a DDS?
support
Non-programmed (qualitative)Programmed{
flexible interactive
so trial-error
Expert Choice (AHP)
}
Artificial Intelligence
Excel Access
N-Site
networks
What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?
Excel – statistical & what-if analysis (flexible budgets) MS Access –data mining tools like queries and reports N-GAGE – employs AHP to evaluate complex hierarchical
problems involving qualitative criteria DSS-7
DSSDSS-6
DSS is a flexible and interactive IT system designed to support decision making when problem is complex / unstructured frequently includes AI models like N-GAGE (AHP) must be flexible / interactive in response to / because of
problems that are complex / unstructured usually involves qualitative criteria
typically in design / choice phases of decisions Examples: ACCESS
PROJECTS
What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?
Excel – statistical & what-if analysis (flexible budgets) MS Access –data mining tools like queries and reports N-GAGE – employs AHP to evaluate complex hierarchical
problems involving qualitative criteria DSS-7
DSSDSS-6
DSS is a flexible and interactive IT system designed to support decision making when problem is complex / unstructured frequently includes AI models like N-GAGE (AHP) must be flexible / interactive in response to / because of
problems that are complex / unstructured usually involves qualitative criteria
typically in design / choice phases of decisions Examples: ACCESS
PROJECTS
Select Access ProjectsChoice: order CIO.1 presentations (Rx Build)
Tentativedates
Access ProjectCIO Team
800 930 200
T
A: Data Definition (cradling : relevance)B: Application Generators (capturing : reliably)C: Application Generators (capturing : reliably)
TH
D: Application Generators (capturing : reliably)E: Data Manipulation (creating : analysis)F: Data Manipulation (creating : analysis)
A-12
BRING
FLASH
DRIVE
THURSDAY
is an AI that models how experts approach complex hierarchical decisions involving qualitative criteria Analytic - decompose complex problems into components
(criteria / alternatives) Hierarchy - organize into meaningful structure Process of pair-wise comparisons involving trade-offs
assigns weights to the criteria and preferences to the alternatives more natural to compare two things than numerous
elements
Analytic Hierarchy Process
(Saaty 2000, 1990, 1977)
DSS: AHPDSS-7
Analytic: decompose into components
Hierarchical Structure
B D H I J Rx B D H I J Rx B D H I J RxB D H I J RxProcess of pairwise comparisons ASSIGNMENT: N-GAGE (ASSESS CIO.1)
Simple, Intuitive…Powerful AHP has been applied to many diverse decisions:
Strategic Planning for a Caspian Sea Pipeline Project 2012
AHP-Delphi GDSS for Locating Whey Processing Facility 2008
N-Site: An Anti-terrorist Distributed Consensus Building and Negotiation Support System across the WWW 2006
► Evaluating Characteristics of Financial Information 2004, 1995
TQI Benchmarking Tools for Evaluating TQM programs 2003
Translating Financial Phrases into Numerical Probabilities 1997
Consensus Ranking of Technical Manager Candidates 1996
DSS: AHPDSS-8
(ProQuest)
Qualitative Characteristics of Financial Information
Comparability(including Consistency)
Timeliness
RELEVANCE
Decision Usefulness
RELIABILITY
FeedbackValue
PredictiveValue Neutrality Representational
FaithfulnessVerifiability
FASB: SFAC2
Analytical: decompose into components
Hierarchical Structure
Process of pairwise comparisons
Similar to:Choice spouse &
CIO/Access assessments
design
choice
understanding
manage complexity
AHP QUESTIONNAIRE
Concept A o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Concept BExtreme Very Strong Moderate Equal Moderate Strong Very Extreme
strong strong
Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Relevance
Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Cost
Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Materiality
Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability
Relevance o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Cost
Relevance o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Materiality
Relevance o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability
Cost o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Materiality
Cost o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability
Materiality o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability
DSS-10
Analytical Hierarchy Proces: Decision Support for complex judgmental problems
While the applications of AHP appear different, each “incorporated judgments on intangible criteria and other elements alongside tangible ones which have known measurements.” Saaty 1987 p.157
N-GAGE & Expert Choice are an expert systems (artificial intelligence) based on AHP designed specifically to make explicit the judgments of experts in evaluating complex unstructured problems involving qualitative criteria
DSS: ECDSS-12.
What are the benefits of a DSS?
involves interaction between decision maker and IT system that enhances & supplements human decision making by increasing: understanding of the problem/decision by examining
intuition/judgment/experience of decision makers management of complexity and lack of structure sophistication of processing capabilities speed of access to and processing of information
for an organization, the enhancement of human decision making contributes to: increasing flexibility and productivity decreasing costs
DSSDSS-13
What are the Components of a DSS?DSS-14.a
What makes accounting datadecision useful?
What accounting alternative should beused to report these
events?
PreparesAuditors
Users
AHP
Pairwise comparisons
FASB Hierarchy
Expert Choice
Figure 4.5
Graphics &
prompts
What are the Components of a DSS?DSS-14.b
Figure 5.6
FASB / Bloom Hierarchies
pairwise comparisons
Expert Choicegraphics & prompts
AHP
What are the components of a DSS?
DSSs vary in application and complexity, but all share specific components: user interface
permits user to enter information, commands and models should be simple, flexible, consistent
model management stores and manages the DSS models
data management stores and maintains information
DSSDSS-14.c
Relate to Expert Choice
What is the process of developing DSS?DSS
Intelligence examine the problem to determine if a DSS is needed
DSS if the problem is complex / unstructured TPS, IOS or MIS if the problem is structured / routine
DSS.2-3 Design
identify what is available to buy as an alternative to building DSS generators: Excel, Expert Choice (Research)
Choice compare build to buy considering cost, fit with the
problem/decision, ease of use Implementation
test, evaluate and revise the DSS (Research)
DSS-15
N-GAGE LAN / internetNetscape/ Outlook
Team Members:Nursing DirectorsNurse ManagersStaff Nurse
Facilitators:Researchers
}DSS supports team DM when problem is
complex / unstructured (qualitative criteria)
as in CIO.1 RANKING
IT Tools
DSS-16aConsensus Ranking Technical Manager: similar spouse choice & CIO.1 ranking
GDSS supports TEAM STRATEGY
What is Group Decision Support System (GDSS)?GDSSDSS-16.b
DSS that is designed to support decision making by a team especially when decision is complex /unstructured DSS-2
typically involves qualitative criteria H.135.6
GASB - setting accounting policies N-Site – multi-national response to terrorism Assign rankings to CIO.1 team presentations
Consensus Ranking of Technical Manager Candidates
Omega v24 n5 pp523-538
DSS.17
What are the components of a GDSS?
People Team Members
united by a common goal & task interdependence experience, perspective, judgment
Facilitators nontechnical role to conduct the meeting technical role related to IT tools
IT Tools Groupware permit team to provide input
simultaneously/anonymously and view by others DSS capabilities to classify, analyze, and rank ideas Telecommunications hardware/software to network
team members (LAN, WAN, Internet)
GDSSDSS-16.c
Omega
Consensus RankingConsensus Ranking of Technical Manager Candidates
Hiring technical managers is:Complex
broad range of skills is required candidates have different skill sets
Unstructured qualitative criteria have no inherent scale / metric for trade-
offs between criteria or comparisons between candidates DMs have implicit criteria that may not be appropriate (e.g.
religion, sex, race) and should be challengedTeam / Group Decision
perceived importance of required skills (hiring criteria) will vary within and between organizational levels
DSS-17
Consensus Ranking
What are the phases of team/group decision making?
I Develop explicit functional criteria that reflect organizational perspectives 19.a-b
Brainstorming (Table 1, Table 2)
Issue categorization & analysis (Table 3, Figure 1)
II Assign priority to criteria & preferences to candidates Voting (Expert Choice, Figure 2) 20.a-b
III Achieve a consensus while minimizing the dysfunctional effects of groups (groupthink, conflict, status) Ranking of the Candidates (Tables 6 & 8) 21.a-
b
DSS-18
(I) Developing the Hiring Criteria Hierarchy
Each Decision Maker (DM) develops a list of criteria.
Facilitators aggregate individual lists of criteria and develop a comprehensive list for each DM group. Table 1
Facilitators do a comprehensive literature search to prepare operational definitions of the criteria.
Table 2
Consensus Ranking: Phase IDSS-19.a
Omega: 525-8
(I) Developing the Hiring Criteria Hierarchy
Each DM identifies related criteria sets and rank orders the criteria within each set. Table 3
Facilitators collect the rankings and develop a synthesized hierarchy of criteria for each DM group. Figure 1
Facilitators and each DM group meet to finalize each group’s criteria hierarchy.
Consensus Ranking: Phase IDSS-19.b
Omega : 525-8
(II) Assigning Importance to Criteria &Preferences to Candidates
Consensus Ranking: Phase II
Facilitators familiarize DMs with principles of AHP and suitable AHP software such as Expert Choice (EC).
DMs use EC for pairwise comparisons between criteria in the hierarchy in Figure 1.
EC alerts DMs to logical inconsistencies and encourages DMs to repeat the pairwise comparisons process in the previous step.
HR does initial screening and identifies several eligible candidates.
DSS-20.a
Omega: 528-30
(II) Assigning Importance to Criteria &Preferences to Candidates
Consensus Ranking: Phase II
DM groups interview candidates using their criteria hierarchy.
DMs use EC for pairwise comparisons to evaluate candidates on each criterion at lowest level of hierarchy.
EC alerts DMs to logical inconsistencies and encourages DMs to repeat the pairwise comparisons process in the previous step. Table 4
DSS-20.b
Omega: 528-30
(III) Identifying the Consensus Ranking of the Candidates
Consensus Ranking: Phase III
Facilitators provide anonymous feedback to all the DMs about each group’s average weights and preferences. Figure 2 If the DMs are satisfied that there is adequate
consistency within the group, the process proceeds to Step 2 below
Otherwise, DMs to go back to Step 6 of Phase 2. Table 5
DSS-21.a
Omega: 530-34
(III) Identifying the Consensus Ranking of the Candidates
Consensus Ranking: Phase III
Facilitators input the final data from Step 1 to MAH and obtain a consensus ranking of the candidates. Tables 6
Facilitators meet with DMs. Unless unforeseen dissatisfactions, the process of employment offers begins in the order prescribed by the GDSS (AHP & MAH). Tables 8
DSS-21.b
Omega: 530-34
What are the benefits of a GDSS?
Achieves the benefits of a team approach to a decision by: compressing time /space so individuals can interact brainstorming to share ideas, facilitate consensus and
achieve acceptance perspectives from different organizational levels
revealing required expertise in candidates (nursing directors, nurse managers, staff nurses)
explicit functional criteria are encouraged rather than implicit / inappropriate criteria such as sex, race, religion.
GDSSDSS-22.a
OmegaH.138.2
What are the benefits of a GDSS?
minimizes the problems of group processes including: groupthink in which different ideas are suppressed conflict by keeping focus on problem not personalities status differences that restrict participation (nursing
directors, nurse managers, staff nurses) sequential interaction in face-to-face meeting,
GDSSDSS-22.b
OmegaH.138.2