Jim Power is an accomplished economist who comes from a farming background and has experience in aquaculture.

As owner-manager of Jim Power Economics Ltd., Power conducts economic and financial consultancy projects in Ireland and overseas.

Power was formerly treasury economist at AIB and chief economist at Bank of Ireland Treasury, and he has taught at the University College Dublin’s Michael Smurfit Graduate School of Business and Dublin City University. He writes a weekly column in the Irish Examiner and Sunday Business Post online edition.

Power is chairman of Three Rock Capital, chair of Love Irish Food and a board member of Agri-awar. In 2013, the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine appointed Power a member of the Aquaculture Licences Appeals Board.

Jim PowerJim Power Economics Ltd.

Keynote Address

Jim PowerJim Power Economics Ltd.

Global Economic Context

Global Risks and Challenges

Some Demographic Trends

Food Industry Issues

Issues Affecting Aquaculture

To Be Discussed

Global economy has come through tough decade

The Great Recession has left significant legacy

Global growth cycle now on upward path

U.S. growth reasonable; inflation moderate

UK held up well post-Brexit; Sterling weakness has helped exports, but consumer and business investment coming under some strain

Euro Zone growth recovery becoming more compelling

Chinese growth has stabilised

Global growth story reasonably compelling

Global Backdrop

US GDP (YoY)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Q100

Q300

Q101

Q301

Q102

Q302

Q103

Q303

Q104

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Q105

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Q106

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Q107

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Q110

Q310

Q111

Q311

Q112

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Q113

Q313

Q114

Q314

Q115

Q315

Q116

Q316

Q117(%

)

UK GDP (YoY)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q100

Q300

Q101

Q301

Q102

Q302

Q103

Q303

Q104

Q304

Q105

Q305

Q106

Q306

Q107

Q307

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Q109

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Q111

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Q316

Q117

(%)

Euro Zone GDP (YoY)

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q100

Q300

Q101

Q301

Q102

Q302

Q103

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Q106

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Q307

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Q109

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Q110

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Q111

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Q112

Q312

Q113

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Q114

Q314

Q115

Q315

Q116

Q316

Q117(%

)

Global Growth Forecast(IMF JULY 17) 2016 2017f 2018fWorld Output +3.2% +3.5% +3.6%

Advanced +1.7% +2.0% +1.9%

US +1.6% +2.1% +2.1%

Euro Zone +1.8% +1.9% +1.7%

Germany +1.8% +1.8% +1.6%

France +1.2% +1.5% +1.7%

UK +1.8% +1.7% +1.5%

Japan +1.0% +1.3% +0.6%

Emerging +4.3% +4.6% +4.8%

China +6.7% +6.7% +6.4%

India +7.1% +7.2% +7.7%

USD v EUR

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017

GBP v EUR

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017

Rejection of Conventional Politics in 2016

Politics — Netherlands and France OK; Germany Sept 24th OK; Italy May 2018 — cause for concern

Migration — causing dangerous tensions in EU particularly

Global terrorism

Trump and growth of protectionism

Brexit

Equity markets have come a very long way since 2009

China – financial imbalances still a concern

Global monetary policy turning

Global Risks and Challenges

Population Projections (Millions)2015 2030 2050 % 2015-2050

World 7,349 8,501 9,725 +32.3%

Africa 1,186 1,679 2,478 +109%

Asia 4,393 4,923 5,267 +19.9%

Europe 738 734 707 -4.2%

Latin Am. & Caribbean

634 721 784 +23.7%

North America

358 396 433 +20.9%

Oceania 39 47 57 +46.2%

50% Growth in Nine Countries(000s) 2015 2030 2050 % 2015-2050

India 1,311,051 1,527,658 1,705,333 +30.1%

Nigeria 182,202 262,599 398,508 +118.7%

Pakistan 188,925 244,916 309,640 +63.9%

DR of Congo 77,267 120,304 195,277 +152.7%

Ethiopia 99,391 138,297 188,455 +89.6%

Tanzania 53,470 82,927 137,136 +156.5%

USA 321,774 355,765 388,865 +20.9%

Indonesia 257,564 295,482 322,237 +25.1%

Uganda 39,032 61,929 101,873 +161%

China 1,376,049 1,415,545 1,348,056 -2.0%

France 64,395 68,007 71,137 +10.5%

Germany 80,689 79,294 74,513 -7.7%

UK 64,716 70,113 75,361 +16.4%

At global level climate change, retail concentration, energy dependency, global population growth the key drivers

In Ireland:

Consumers want cheap food

Retail concentration

Viewed as a ‘license to print money’ by some

Reality is that it is a competitive, low-margin business that is very vulnerable to imports and retail domination

Dilemma between price, quality and uniqueness and by implication safety

Some Issues in the Food Sector

Population projections to 2050 will translate into 60% increase in agricultural consumption

Feeding the world and nurturing the planet key challenges

Sustainability the big theme

Weather disrupting production

Food security will become more important

Global Food Production

Demographics very positive

Increased income inequality?

Strong investment in production

Greater price volatility as barriers to production come down

Sector with good future, but in an environment of limited pricing power and more volatile prices, efficiency in production will be key to success

The Future of Food

Consumer Food Prices in Ireland

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May-17

CPI Food Beef&Veal Fish

Climate change impact on production

Environmental issues

Health benefits

Food safety issues

Impact on tourism

‘NIMBYism’

Licensing process

Aquaculture — Key Issues

Thank You!