Dayton, OhioDayton, Ohio ASHRAE Chapter ASHRAE ChapterClimate ChangeClimate Change

What Are They Thinking?What Are They Thinking?

Tom WerkemaTom Werkema

Distinguished LecturerDistinguished Lecturer

October 20, 2009October 20, 2009

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Carbon CountingCarbon Counting

Carbon Counting ToolsCarbon Counting Tools Calculator Types:Calculator Types:

– Personal carbon footprintPersonal carbon footprint– Carbon emissions from buildingsCarbon emissions from buildings– Carbon calculators with BIM systemsCarbon calculators with BIM systems

ElementsElements– Energy – single largest contributorEnergy – single largest contributor

Direct or indirectDirect or indirect– Heating, cooling, lighting, appliancesHeating, cooling, lighting, appliances

– ConstructionConstructionOf the buildingOf the buildingOf the materials used in the buildingOf the materials used in the buildingTransportation of materials to constructTransportation of materials to construct

Carbon Counting ToolsCarbon Counting Tools

Elements (continued)Elements (continued)– WaterWater

Both in and out of the buildingBoth in and out of the building

– Solid WasteSolid WasteIncludes decomposition to landfill ghgsIncludes decomposition to landfill ghgs

– TransportationTransportationPublic transitPublic transitBuilding occupant material usageBuilding occupant material usage

Building CalculatorsBuilding Calculators

Operating & Embodied EnergyOperating & Embodied Energy– The Green Building Energy SuiteThe Green Building Energy Suite– The Athena Institute The Athena Institute

Carbon numbers for some building sizes/locationsCarbon numbers for some building sizes/locations LCA's for over 400 common building assemblies LCA's for over 400 common building assemblies Impact estimator (purchase) – GWP of projectImpact estimator (purchase) – GWP of project New, retrofit, major renovationsNew, retrofit, major renovations

– Institutional, residential, office, industrialInstitutional, residential, office, industrial

– Carbon Construction CalculatorCarbon Construction Calculator ““reduce, renew, offset”reduce, renew, offset” Embodied and construction energy calculatorEmbodied and construction energy calculator

Building CalculatorsBuilding Calculators

Operating & Embodied Energy (con't)Operating & Embodied Energy (con't)– Carbon FootprintCarbon Footprint

Various carbon calculatorsVarious carbon calculatorsInformation about Information about reduction/offsetsreduction/offsets

– Zero FootprintZero FootprintVariety of calculatorsVariety of calculators

Carbon CalculatorsCarbon Calculators

Natural gas – average 12.62 lbs Natural gas – average 12.62 lbs COCO

22 /Therm /Therm

– (0.47 lbs CO(0.47 lbs CO22/kWhr)/kWhr)

Electricity – 0.97 lbs COElectricity – 0.97 lbs CO22/kWhr/kWhr

– Average for total US is 1.363 lbs Average for total US is 1.363 lbs COCO

22/kWhr/kWhr

– Includes on-site generationIncludes on-site generation

Avg Distribution of Building Avg Distribution of Building Emissions Emissions

Operational37%

Waste7%

Transportation44%

Construction8%

Water4%

Avg Distribution of Building Avg Distribution of Building Emissions, excluding Emissions, excluding

transportationtransportation

Operational66%

Waste13%

Construction13%

Water8%

Carbon Calculation ProcessCarbon Calculation Process 1) Define boundary1) Define boundary 2) Measure energy flow across boundary2) Measure energy flow across boundary 3) Define carbon factor for each energy 3) Define carbon factor for each energy

supplysupply– EPA Power Profiler, EPA eGRID, NREL Model, CEC/E3 EPA Power Profiler, EPA eGRID, NREL Model, CEC/E3

ModelModel

4) Construction – multiple calculators 4) Construction – multiple calculators availableavailable– Need to estimate building life as wellNeed to estimate building life as well

5) Waste5) Waste– Some waste generates methaneSome waste generates methane– recycle?recycle?

Carbon Calculation ProcessCarbon Calculation Process(con’t)(con’t)

6) Water6) Water– pumping/treatment COpumping/treatment CO

22 emissions (embedded emissions (embedded

energy)energy)

– 7) Transportation7) Transportation– Ground, airGround, air– BoundariesBoundaries

home versus office?home versus office? Business versus businessBusiness versus business

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for March, 2009, was 15.16 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data.

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for September 2009 was 5.36 million square kilometers (2.07 million square miles), the third-lowest in the satellite record. The magenta line shows the median ice extent for September from 1979 to 2000. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Figure 5. These images compare ice age, a proxy for ice thickness, in 2007, 2008, 2009, and the 1981 to 2000 average. This year saw an increase in second-year ice (in blue) over 2008. At the end of summer 2009, 32 percent of the ice cover was second-year ice. Three-year and older ice were 19 percent of the total ice cover, the lowest in the satellite record.—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy C. Fowler and J. Maslanik, University of Colorado at Boulder

Figure 3. September ice extent from 1979 to 2009 shows a continued decline. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 has now increased to 11.2 percent per decade. Sea Ice Index data.—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Climate Change 2009Climate Change 2009 5 Meetings plus Copenhagen5 Meetings plus Copenhagen Tabled key proposalsTabled key proposals

– Medium (2020) 25-40% and long term (2050) 50-95% Medium (2020) 25-40% and long term (2050) 50-95% – Intellectual Property Rights proposed to be supersededIntellectual Property Rights proposed to be superseded– Dozens of new institutions, fundsDozens of new institutions, funds– Historic responsibility, climate debt, emission debt, Historic responsibility, climate debt, emission debt,

shared carbon space, shared atmospheric resources, per shared carbon space, shared atmospheric resources, per capita reductionscapita reductions

– No commitments for developing countriesNo commitments for developing countries– Emissions tradingEmissions trading– Sectoral approachesSectoral approaches

In 1997 pre-Kyoto had 100 page textIn 1997 pre-Kyoto had 100 page text– Reduced to 30 pages in Kyoto ProtocolReduced to 30 pages in Kyoto Protocol– Today 400 pages, and increasingToday 400 pages, and increasing

US will only bring back agreement it will ratifyUS will only bring back agreement it will ratify

International Trade IssuesInternational Trade Issues US – Secretary ChuUS – Secretary Chu

– Carbon tariffs to “level playing field”Carbon tariffs to “level playing field” China Appeals to Exclude Exports in Climate DealChina Appeals to Exclude Exports in Climate Deal

– ““rich countries buying its products should bear rich countries buying its products should bear responsibility for emissions in manufacturing”responsibility for emissions in manufacturing”

– 20% of China’s emissions from exported goods20% of China’s emissions from exported goods– Others: logistical nightmare, control over production in Others: logistical nightmare, control over production in

developing countries?developing countries? Subject of House hearings in SpringSubject of House hearings in Spring

– Potential tax credits to affected industriesPotential tax credits to affected industries 10 Senate D’s letter to Obama – August 710 Senate D’s letter to Obama – August 7 Discussed by EC in 2008, without pursuing todayDiscussed by EC in 2008, without pursuing today

1990-2006

1990-2006

EU F Gas RegulationEU F Gas Regulation

Key sectors – refrigeration, air-Key sectors – refrigeration, air-conditioning, heat pumps, high-conditioning, heat pumps, high-voltage switchgearvoltage switchgear

Marketing & use bans limited Marketing & use bans limited todaytoday

Will be reviewed in 2010 for Will be reviewed in 2010 for changes in 2011changes in 2011– EC looking at Waxman/Markey-EC looking at Waxman/Markey-

Boxer/ReidBoxer/Reid

EU Mobile A/C DirectiveEU Mobile A/C Directive

1/1/11 no new model(platform) 1/1/11 no new model(platform) MAC fluid > 150 GWPMAC fluid > 150 GWP

1/1/17 no new MAC fluid > 150 1/1/17 no new MAC fluid > 150 GWPGWP

Auto makers may not introduce Auto makers may not introduce new models in 2011, 12new models in 2011, 12

EU Emissions Trading SchemeEU Emissions Trading Scheme

EU ProgramEU Program– Carbon prices have declined due to economyCarbon prices have declined due to economy– Automakers agreed to reduce new car Automakers agreed to reduce new car

emissions to 130gms/km by 2012-2015emissions to 130gms/km by 2012-2015– Firms will receive > 30% carbon allowances Firms will receive > 30% carbon allowances

free until 2020free until 2020 Free allocation for Energy Intensive Industries Free allocation for Energy Intensive Industries

exposed to C leakageexposed to C leakage Rest purchased at auctionRest purchased at auction

Other Developed CountriesOther Developed Countries

Japan: Indicated they would start C & T in OctoberJapan: Indicated they would start C & T in OctoberAustralia: Cap and Trade by 2010Australia: Cap and Trade by 2010

Pushed back to 2011Pushed back to 2011– Includes HFCs in common basketIncludes HFCs in common basket

1100% cost increase will simply pass thru to consumer1100% cost increase will simply pass thru to consumer

CanadaCanada HFC restricted to Significant New Activity Notice HFC restricted to Significant New Activity Notice

listslists Mandatory reporting in 2005Mandatory reporting in 2005 Declared all GHGs CEPA ToxicDeclared all GHGs CEPA ToxicSweden: tax proposal $43/pound 134a equivalentSweden: tax proposal $43/pound 134a equivalent

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year

Ex

ajo

ule

s/Y

ea

r

Energy Reduction from ReferenceNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS

Transport

Buildings

Industry

Global Primary Energy: 550 ppmv

Coal

Gas

Oil

Bio-mass

CCS

Nuc

Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

Montreal ProtocolMontreal Protocol Mauritius/Micronesia amendment to add HFC to MP, with Mauritius/Micronesia amendment to add HFC to MP, with

HFC only in 2004-6 baselineHFC only in 2004-6 baseline EU – wants decision from UNFCCC to mandate reduction EU – wants decision from UNFCCC to mandate reduction

schedule, implemented by MPschedule, implemented by MP US, Canada, Mexico – amendment to MPUS, Canada, Mexico – amendment to MP

– 2004-2006 baseline HCFCs+HFCs GWP basis2004-2006 baseline HCFCs+HFCs GWP basis– Slightly less stringent than WM thru 2025, 15% residual at end Slightly less stringent than WM thru 2025, 15% residual at end

of scheduleof schedule– Developing country 10% reduction 2016, 85% 2043Developing country 10% reduction 2016, 85% 2043– MLF funding for HFCs – to be negotiatedMLF funding for HFCs – to be negotiated– Limits HFC-23 emissionsLimits HFC-23 emissions– Leaves unchanged UNFCCC/KP jurisdictionLeaves unchanged UNFCCC/KP jurisdiction– Production for Developing countries allowed, 10% of baselineProduction for Developing countries allowed, 10% of baseline– Non Party Imports/Exports banned w/i one year of entry into Non Party Imports/Exports banned w/i one year of entry into

forceforce– Enters into force 1/1/2011 if 20 Parties ratifyEnters into force 1/1/2011 if 20 Parties ratify

US House – American US House – American Climate & Energy Climate & Energy

Security Act (ACES)Security Act (ACES)(essentially same as Senate version)(essentially same as Senate version)

Voted June 26, 2009Voted June 26, 2009

ACESACES Passed 219-212Passed 219-212

– Need 218 to passNeed 218 to pass– 44 D against, 8 R for44 D against, 8 R for

3D’s considered bill to weak3D’s considered bill to weak– 1428 pages – released 5 hours before debate1428 pages – released 5 hours before debate– Senate using ACES as starting point Senate using ACES as starting point

Reid-Boxer (Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Reid-Boxer (Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act) reduced to 821 pagesAct) reduced to 821 pages

Reid now admitting 2010 discussionsReid now admitting 2010 discussions– Obama concursObama concurs

ACES ACES

Covers 85% of US emissionsCovers 85% of US emissions 2005 levels baseline2005 levels baseline

– 3% below by 20123% below by 2012– 17% below by 202017% below by 2020– 42% below by 203042% below by 2030– 83% below by 205083% below by 2050

Covered Gases – COCovered Gases – CO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O, HFCs, O, HFCs, PFCs, SFPFCs, SF66, NF, NF3,3,, two HFOs, two HFOs– Any other anthropogenic gas determined by Any other anthropogenic gas determined by

EPAEPA

ACESACES

““Covered entities” – 25,000 MT COCovered entities” – 25,000 MT CO22

– Vehicle fleets > 25,000 MT COVehicle fleets > 25,000 MT CO22

Emissions allowances vary over first Emissions allowances vary over first 5 years5 years– 4,627 MMT CO4,627 MMT CO22 in 2012 up to 5,482 MMT in 2012 up to 5,482 MMT

COCO22 in 2016 in 2016

– Decreases steadily to 1,035 MMT CODecreases steadily to 1,035 MMT CO22 in in 2050 and thereafter 2050 and thereafter

ACES - AuctionsACES - Auctions

15% each year, proceeds to low 15% each year, proceeds to low income consumersincome consumers

Small quantities also auctioned for: Small quantities also auctioned for: worker training, adaptation, wildlife worker training, adaptation, wildlife & natural resources & natural resources

ACES-HFCsACES-HFCs HFC Separate Title – same Clean Air Act HFC Separate Title – same Clean Air Act

Section as HCFCs (Group I) but separate Section as HCFCs (Group I) but separate (Group II)(Group II)– Includes manufactured HFCs, excludes byproductsIncludes manufactured HFCs, excludes byproducts

2012 @ 90% of baseline GWP2012 @ 90% of baseline GWP– 2004-2006 average baseline HFCs + HCFCs2004-2006 average baseline HFCs + HCFCs– 2.5%/yr decline first 6 years (2018), 4%/yr 2.5%/yr decline first 6 years (2018), 4%/yr

thereafterthereafter– 15% of baseline in 203315% of baseline in 2033

370 MM TCO2e maximum EPA determined 370 MM TCO2e maximum EPA determined baselinebaseline– 280 MM TCO2e minimum baseline280 MM TCO2e minimum baseline

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

MM

TC

O2

Eq

uiv

Producer Non Auction Rights Producer Auction Rights Secondary Pool

HFC Low Demand HFC High Demand Optimistic Phasedown Case

The American Clean Energy and Security Act The American Clean Energy and Security Act (HR 2454)Waxman Markey Bill(HR 2454)Waxman Markey Bill

Rights needed to produce/import any HFC Similar to HCFCRights not free – auction/fee

Starting basis: GWP 2004-2006, 60% HCFCs+100% HFCsPresumes EPA allocates at maximum level allowed in 2012Senate consideration unknown/on-going

BAU Initial Estimates

Low GWP Shift

BAU Latest (Arkema)Estimate

0

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450

2012

2013

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2027

2028

2029

2030

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2033

MM

TC

O2

Eq

uiv

Total Rights- WM Total Rights- MP Ammend

McKinsey & CompanyMcKinsey & CompanyUnlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S.

Economy – July, 2009Economy – July, 2009 Energy savings of $1.2t by 2020Energy savings of $1.2t by 2020

– Capital cost of $520bCapital cost of $520b– 1.1 Gt CO1.1 Gt CO22 reduction reduction– 9.1 Quad BTU end use savings9.1 Quad BTU end use savings

23% of projected demand23% of projected demand Significant barriers existSignificant barriers exist

– 1) Recognize energy efficiency as energy resource1) Recognize energy efficiency as energy resource– 2) launch portfolio of emerging, proven, pilot approaches2) launch portfolio of emerging, proven, pilot approaches– 3) identify upfront funding resources3) identify upfront funding resources

$0.0059 per KWH + $1.12 per MMBTU over 10 years $0.0059 per KWH + $1.12 per MMBTU over 10 years (~8%↑)(~8%↑)

– 4) alignment between utilities, regulators, government, 4) alignment between utilities, regulators, government, manufacturers, energy consumersmanufacturers, energy consumers

– 5) foster innovation5) foster innovation

McKinsey & CompanyMcKinsey & CompanyUnlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S.

Economy – July, 2009Economy – July, 2009

Energy Consumption per unit floor Energy Consumption per unit floor space, since 1980space, since 1980– ↓ ↓ 11% residential11% residential– ↓ ↓ 21% commercial21% commercial– Industrial Energy Consumption ↓ 41% Industrial Energy Consumption ↓ 41%

per GDP outputper GDP output

CaliforniaCalifornia

2/28/09 – introduced ban on high GWP2/28/09 – introduced ban on high GWP– Commercial Refrigeration & ACCommercial Refrigeration & AC– GWP>150, commencing in 2020GWP>150, commencing in 2020– Converted to a study in AprilConverted to a study in April

Refrigeration regulation – Dec. 2009Refrigeration regulation – Dec. 2009– >2,000 pound systems 2011>2,000 pound systems 2011– 200-2,000 pound 2014200-2,000 pound 2014– Certified Techs, no venting, record keeping, Certified Techs, no venting, record keeping,

registrationregistration

US EPAUS EPA

EPA – Published Final Rule for ReportingEPA – Published Final Rule for Reporting– 2010 data, reported in 20112010 data, reported in 2011– 25,000 MT CO equivalent25,000 MT CO equivalent– Deferred HFC production reportingDeferred HFC production reporting

Voluntary in 2009Voluntary in 2009

EPA published “endangerment” findingEPA published “endangerment” finding– Applicability of Clean Air Act to GHGsApplicability of Clean Air Act to GHGs

EPA will publish Product Containing in 2009?EPA will publish Product Containing in 2009?– Refrigeration systems only – does not cover Refrigeration systems only – does not cover

foamfoam– Ban on importation, consistent with domesticBan on importation, consistent with domestic

EPA Regulatons (con’t)EPA Regulatons (con’t) Auto industry agreement – Proposed RuleAuto industry agreement – Proposed Rule

– Final expected by early NovemberFinal expected by early November– 35.5 mpg – corresponding tailpipe emissions 35.5 mpg – corresponding tailpipe emissions

(250 gms/mile)(250 gms/mile)– 9-14 gms/mile MAC9-14 gms/mile MAC– 2016 implementation2016 implementation

EPA also to publish HCFC Allocation Rule EPA also to publish HCFC Allocation Rule by 1/1/10?by 1/1/10?

On September 30, EPA Proposed Rule On September 30, EPA Proposed Rule under CAA – applicability of New Source under CAA – applicability of New Source Review – 25,000 MT COReview – 25,000 MT CO22ee– Applies to all ghgsApplies to all ghgs

HFC Substitutes by Sector: Aerosols, Foams, Fire SuppressionHFC Substitutes by Sector: Aerosols, Foams, Fire Suppression

End-UseSubstitute or Mitigation

Strategy

Change in CO2e Where

Adopted

Years Until Available

Aero

sols

All Non-Medical

Replace HFC-134a with HFC-152a 91% available now

Hydrocarbons 100% available now

Not-in-Kind (pumps, roll-ons, etc.) 100% available now

HFO-1234ze 95.2-99.6% <5

MedicalDry Powder Inhalers 100% available now

Injections/Tablets 100% 10+

Fire

S

up

pre

ssio

n

Total Flooding

Inert Gases 100% available now

Water Mist 100%  available now

Fluorinated Ketone (FK-5-1-12) 99.97% available now

All other low GWP substances ~90% 10+

Foam

Blo

win

g

Various Hydrocarbons 100% available now

XPS CO2 100% <5

Spray H2O 100% <5

Appliance, XPS, Spray

HFO-1234ze 99.4%-99.6% <5

Appliance Foam Capture/destruction at end-of-life ~90% available now

Other End Uses Capture/destruction at end-of-life ~90% 10+

HFC Substitutes by Sector: Air ConditioningHFC Substitutes by Sector: Air Conditioning

End-UseSubstitute or Mitigation

Strategy

Change in CO2e Where

Adopted

Years Until Available

All End Uses

Recovery/Reclamation/ Destruction

10-100%available

now

Leak Repair 10-100%available

now

Auto ACEnhanced HFC-134a Systems 50%

available now

HFC-152a, HFO-1234yf, CO2 91.3-99.9% <5

Bus, Train A/C HFO-1234yf, CO2 99.7-99.9% <10

Residential & Commercial AC, Chillers

Microchannel Heat Exchangers

35-50%available

now

Low GWP Blends 50-90% 10+

Window AC Units Hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1234yf

99.7-100%<10

Dehumidifiers <10

HFC Substitutes by Sector: RefrigerationHFC Substitutes by Sector: Refrigeration

End-Use Substitute or Mitigation StrategyChange in CO2e Where Adopted

Years Until Available

All End UsesRecovery/Reclamation/Destruction 10-100%* available now

Leak Repair 10-100%* available now

Supermarkets

Low Charge / Low Leak Technologies (e.g., Cascade or Secondary Systems)

90-100% available now

Low GWP Blends 50-90% 10+

Chillers, Cold StorageAmmonia 100% available now

Low GWP Blends 50-90% 10+

Home Refrigerators/ Freezers

Hydrocarbons, CO2, HFO-1234yf 99.7-100%

available now

Stand-alone Commercial Refrigerators/ Freezers

<5

Beverage Coolers <10

Vending Machines <5

Ice Makers <10

Transport Refrigeration Hydrocarbons, Ammonia, Low GWP Blends50-100%

10+

OzoneOzone