d&b us economic health tracker (march 2014)
TRANSCRIPT
5%
3%
3.4%
Payment Delinquency
Credit Card Delinquency
Credit Card Use
Manufacturing Retail
Real Estate
Construction
Business Services
Trade, Transportation
& Utilities
Small Business Health Index
U.S. Jobs Health
D&B U.S. Economic Health TrackerA multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy
D&B’s Small Business Health Index has contracted modestly, although small businesses saw improvement in on-time credit card and bill payments.
D&B estimates 146,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in February 2014, with significant gains in manufacturing, construction, and business services. Employment growth is anticipated to continue at a slower pace.
March 2014
Small Business Health Index: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
60
80
100
120
Feb' 14Dec '10Dec '08Dec '06Dec '04
.03points
US Jobs Health: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
Feb' 14Jan' 14Dec' 13Nov' 13Oct '13Sept '13
146,000
www.dnb.com/tracker
The D&B U.S. Business Economic Tracker revealed mixed signals for U.S. businesses in February 2014. Wintry weather had a negative impact on the Small Business Health Index, driving the decline in small business performance. There are signs of softening in the small business sector but clearly weather is the primary influence. Meanwhile, an estimated 146,000 new jobs were created, boosted by strong gains in the construction, manufacturing, and business services segments. Finally, overall U.S. business health strengthened in February, registering a 53.1-percent index value, matching January as the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. U.S. businesses continued to strengthen their financial health at the beginning of 2014, based on the weighted average of D&B’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. Despite lingering challenges to the recovery, healthier financials and balance sheets bode well for the U.S. economy.
The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Feb. 28, 2014.
Methodology
www.dnb.com/tracker March 2014
About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B)Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. D&B’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by D&B’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions.
© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. (DB-3765 3/14)
U.S. Business Health Index
To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker
Perspectives
13.7%
2.2%
Viability
Delinquency
0.9%Total Loss
US Business Health Index: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
45
50
55
Feb' 14Jan '13Feb' 12
IMPROVEMENT
NEUTRAL
DETERIORATION
5.6%
TOTAL INDEX VALUE53.1
Y/Y
U.S. business health improved 5.6 percent year-over-year in February 2014, the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. Businesses continued to improve their balance sheets and overall financial performance.
How to read this indicator:
A reading of 50%
represents “neutral.”
A reading of more than
50% reflects improvement and a reading
of less than 50% reflects
deterioration.