dbresearch cis chartbook

8/14/2019 Dbresearch Cis Chartbook

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1. CIS from a global perspective

Nominal GDP size

CIS on par with CEE in terms of market size

Population size

CIS close to USA and Euro area

GDP per capita

CIS still among poorest regions

GDP per capita

Large disparities in the CIS

Nominal GDP

Russia 10 times larger than UkrainePopulation

Russia, Ukraine & Uzbekistan largest countries

Africa

2%CIS

3%

CEE

3%

USA

27%

Japan

9%

Asia excl.

Japan

13% Others21%

Euro area

22%

% of world GDP, 2006

Sources: IMF WEO, DB Research

Developing

Asia*

51%

Others

30%

CEE

3%

Euro area

5%USA

5%

CIS

4%

Japan

2%

% of world population, 2006

Source: IMF WEO

*Excluding Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

1996

Current USD

Source: IMF WEO

0 10 20 30 40 50

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Turkmenistan

Tajikistan

Russia

Moldova

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

Georgia

Belarus

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Million, 2006


142

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0 20 40 60 80 100

Tajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Armenia

Georgia

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Russia

2006

1996

USD bn, 2006


984

392

106

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Developing Asia*

CIS

CEE

Euro area

Japan

USA

Current USD, 2006


* Excluding Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.



2. Natural resource wealth

Oil reserves & resources*

CIS in second place

Gas reserves & resources*

CIS dominate the world league

Oil extraction & consumption

Only developing world boasts spare capacityGas extraction & consumption

CIS has largest spare capacity

Coal reserves & resources*

CIS dominate world leagueUranium reserves & resources*

CIS in third place

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0 20 40 60 80 100

Europe

Australia-Asia

Latin America

North America

Africa

CIS

Middle East

Reserves

Resources

% of world total, 2005

*Reserves: Exploitation technically possible and commercially viable

*Resources: Exploitation technically not possible or commercially not viable

Source: BGR

0 20 40 60 80

Europe

Latin America

Africa

North America

Australia-Asia

Middle East

CIS

Reserves

Resources




Source: BGR

0 20 40 60 80

Middle East

Europe

Latin America

Africa

North America

Australia-Asia

CIS

Reserves

Resources




Source: BGR

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Middle East

Europe

Latin America

Africa

CIS

North America

Australia-Asia

Reserves

Resources




Source: BGR

0 10 20 30 40

Europe

Latin America

Australia-Asia

Africa

CIS

North America

Middle East

Extraction

Consumption


Source: BGR

0 10 20 30

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

Europe

Australia-Asia

North America

CIS

Extraction

Consumption


Source: BGR



2. Natural resource wealth

Coal extraction & consumption

Extraction equals consumption in most regions

Uranium extraction & consumption

CIS and Africa with largest spare capacities

Oil production in CIS: 1950 to 2020

Production on the rise againGas production in CIS: 1960 to 2020

Production to increase until 2020

Natural resources in CIS: Production 2006

Russia the largest producerNatural resources in CIS: Reserves 2006

Enormous untapped potential

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

Europe

CIS

North America

Australia-Asia

Extraction

Consumption


Source: BGR

0 10 20 30 40

Middle East

Latin America

Europe

Africa

Australia-Asia

CIS

North America

Extraction

Consumption


Source: BGR

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Oil

Gas

Coal


Source: BP

0 5 10 15 20 25

Ukraine

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Oil

Gas

Coal


Source: BP

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgysztan, Tajikistan

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Russia

T mn

Sources: BGR, SWP

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgysztan, Tajikistan

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Sources: BGR, SWP

m³ bn



4. Growth, savings, investment

Real GDP growth

Record growth in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan

Real GDP index

More than half of countries still below 1990 level

Distribution of population and nominal GDP in the CIS

Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan account for 90% of GDP but for only 66% of CIS-population

0 5 10 15

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Georgia

Uzbekistan

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan

2007F

Avg 2000-2006

% yoy

Source: IMF WEO

29.3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Uzbekistan

Armenia

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Moldova

Georgia

Index 1990=100

Source: Global Insight, DB Research

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nominal GDP

Population

Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Others

Source: IMF WEO

%, 2006

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Domestic savings rate

Azerbaijan and Belarus with highest rates

Gross fixed investment

Moderate investment rates in most countries

-5 15 35 55 75

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

Avg 2000-2005

% of GDP

Source: Global Insight

0 10 20 30 40 50

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova*

Russia

Ukraine

2006

Avg 2002-2005

% of GDP

Sources: IMF IFS & WEO, DB Research

*2005 instead of 2006



5. Economic sectors

Industry Structure: Russia

Mining and metals dominate

Industry Structure: Ukraine

Metals, food and utilities dominate

23%

14%

12%11%

8%

32%

Mining and quarryingMetal industryEnergy, gas and water supplyFood industryMineral industryOthers

Source: Federal State Statistical Service of Russia, DB Research

200525%

16%

13%

13%

9%

24%

Metallurgy and metal processingFood industry

Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water

Machine building

Production of coke and refinery products

Others

Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

2005

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Composition of GDP: Natural resource rich countries

Services dominate, agricultural sector still significant outside Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Composition of GDP: Natural resource poor countries

Services dominate, agriculture still significant outside Belarus and Georgia

0

20

40

60

80

Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Russia Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

Industry Agriculture Services

% of GDP, 2006

Source: DB Research

0

20

40

60

80

Armenia Belarus Kyrgyzstan Georgia Moldova Tajikistan

Industry Agriculture Services

% of GDP, 2006

Source: DB Research



5. Economic sectors

Industry structure: Georgia

Food and utilities dominateIndustry structure: Armenia

Non-ferrous metals and food dominate

Industry structure: Kyrgyzstan

Precious metals and utilities dominate

Industry structure: Moldova

Food and utilities dominate

36%

30%

15%

4% 4%

11%

Non-ferrous metallurgy

Food industry

Electric power

Other

Wood-working, logging, pulp

Building materials industry

Source: National Statistical Service of Republic of Armenia

2005

38%

24%

10%

7%

6%

15%

Food products, beverages and tobacco products

Electricity, gas and water supply

Basic metals and fabricated metal products

Mining and quarrying

Chemical industry

Others

Source: Statistical Committee of Georgia

2005

39%

20%

14%

15%

8%4%

Precious and rare-earth metalsElectricity, gas and water supplyFood products, beverages, and tobaccoOthers

Other non-metallic mineral productsTextiles and textile products

Source: CISSTAT (ed.), "15 years of the CIS", Moscow 2006

2005

42%

8%8%4%

2%

36%

Food products and beveragesElectricity, heat, gas and water

Non-metallic mineral products

Textiles, clothing and shoes

Machinery and equipment

Other

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova

2005

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Industry structure: Kazakhstan

Mining and quarrying dominates by far

Industry structure: Azerbaijan

Extraction industry dominates by far

60%

9%

2%

14%

5%

10%

Mining and quarrying

Food products, beverages, and tobacco

Other non-metallic mineral products

Basic metals and fabricated metal products

Electricity, gas and water supply

Others

Source: CISSTAT (ed.), "15 years of the CIS", Moscow 2006

2005

66%

11%

7%

4%

4%8%

Extractive industryRefined petroleum productsProduction and distribution of electricity, gas and waterMetallurgy industryFood products, incl. beverage and tobaccoOthers

Source: The State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan Republic

2005



6. External sector

Major export markets

European Union main destination

Major import markets

EU and intra-CIS main sources

CIS exports, 1996-2006

Exports outside CIS have surged

CIS imports, 1996-2006

Imports from within CIS have declined

Merchandise exports Merchandise imports

Other

14%

EU

55%Africa

1%

Intra-CIS

16%

USA

3%

WesternHemi-

sphere

2%

Asia

9%

% of total CIS exports, 2006

Sources: IMF DOTS, DB Research

USA

3%Asia

14%

Western

Hemi-

sphere

3%

Intra-CIS

29%

Other

11% EU

40%

% of total CIS imports, 2006


0 10 20 30 40

Kyrgyzstan

Georgia

Tajikistan

Armenia

Moldova

Uzbekistan

Azerbaijan

Turkmenistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Russia

USD bn, 2006

Source: IMF DOTS

291

0 10 20 30 40

Tajikistan

Armenia

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Georgia

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Ukraine

Russia

USD bn, 2006

Source: IMF DOTS

133

58

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Total CIS imports, USD bn (left)

Intra-CIS imports as % of total CIS imports (right)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Total CIS exports, USD bn (left)

Intra-CIS exports as % of total CIS exports (right)


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6. External sector

Resource rich CIS: Top 3 export partners

EU and CIS dominate

Resource poor CIS: Top 3 export partners

EU and CIS dominate

Trade balance

Deficits prevail, surpluses for energy exporters

Current account balance

Deficits prevail, surpluses for energy exporters

Resource rich CIS: Top 3 import partners

Russia most important sourceResource poor CIS: Top 3 import partners

Russia most important source

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A z e r b a i j a n

K a z a k h s t a n

R u s s i a

T u r k m e n i s t a n

U k r a i n e

U z b e k i s t a n

% of total exports


ILIR

IT

RUCNDE

IT DENL

IR

AE

UA

TR IT

RU

PLCN

RU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A r m e n i a

B e l a r u s

G e o r g i a

K y r g y z s t a n

M o l d o v a

T a j i k i s t a n

% of total exports


DE

NL BE

RU

NL

GBTR

AZRU

CH

KZRU RU

DE IT

TR

NL

IR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A z e r b a i j a n

K a z a k h s t a n

R u s s i a

T u r k m e n i s t a n

U k r a i n e

U z b e k i s t a n

% of total imports


GBDE

RU CN

DE

RU

CN

UA

DE DE

PL

RU

TRUAAE KR

CN

RU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A r m e n i a

B e l a r u s

G e o r g i a

K y r g y z s t a n

M o l d o v a

T a j i k i s t a n

% of total imports


UA

BE

RU

DEUA

RU

TR

DE

RU CNKZ

RU

UARO

RU

KZ UZ

RU

-6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Ukraine

2006

Avg 2000-2005

USD bn, 2006

Source: IMF IFS

139

70

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

2006

Avg 2000-2005

% of GDP

Source: IMF WEO

15.7

15.3

-16.8

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6. External sector

Top five export and import products

Commodities dominate

Exports Imports

% of total, 2005 % of total, 2005

Armenia Precious stones and metals 34.5 Precious stones and metals 19.3

Base metals and articles thereof 33.1 Mineral products 16.5Products to prepare food 9.9 Machinery and equipment 12.9

Mineral production 9.6 Means of transportation 8.4

Machinery and equipment 2.9 Products to prepare food 8.1

Azerbaijan Mineral products 84.6 Machines, electronical equipment 29.4

Vehicles (other than railway or tramway

rolling stock), ships and air-transport

facilities

6.3 Mineral products 14.8

Products of chemical industry 3.0 Miscellaneous articles of base metal 11.7

Vegetables and planting materials 2.5 Vehicles (other than railway or tramway

rolling stock), ships and air-transport

facilities

16.7

Miscellaneous articles made of basemetal

2.3 Food products, beverages, spirits andvinegar, tobacco

5.7

Belarus Mineral products 38.8 Mineral products 33.3

Machinery, equipment and vehicles 20.0 Machinery, equipment and vehicles 24.1

Chemical industry products, rubber 14.4 Chemical industry products, rubber 12.6

Food industry products and raw materials

for production thereof

7.5 Food industry products and raw materials

for production thereof

9.3

Georgia Food products and food industry 35.1 Petroleum and petroleum products;

Bituminous substances; Waxes

19.9

Metals and metal industry 22.7 Machinery 19.5

Chemical industry 16.6 Food products and food industry 18.4

Machinery 13.8 Chemical industry ex minerals 11.9

Wood industry 2.2 Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery andmechanical appliances; Parts thereof

10.1

Kazakhstan Mineral products 73.8 Machinery and mechanical appliances 28.3

Non-precious metals and articles made of

non-precious metal

15.9 Non-precious metals and articles made of

non-precious metal

14.7

Chemical industry and related products 3.2 Means of transportation 13.5

Animal, vegetable products and food

industry


Chemical industry and related products 7.7

Kyrgyzstan Precious or semiprecious stones,

precious metals and products


Mineral products 14.4 Machinery, equipment; electrical equipment

and parts

14.2

Textile and textile articles 11.5 Products of chemical or allied industries 11.9

Stone, gypsum, cement, asbestos,

ceramics

6.9 Prepared foodstuffs; alcoholic and non-

alcoholic beverages and tobacco

9.2

Live animal and vegetable products 5.9 Metals and products thereof 6.0

Moldova Products to prepare food 36.3 Mineral products 22.0

Textile articles 17.8 Machinery and equipment 13.7

Products of vegetable origin 12.1 Chemical products 10.1

Animal hide and leather goods 6.6 Textile articles 7.8

Base metals and articles of thereof 4.5 Base metals and products 7.0

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6. External sector

Top five export and import products

Commodities dominate

Exports Imports

% of total, 2005 % of total, 2005

Russia Mineral products 64.6 Machinery, equipment and means of

transportation

44.0

Chemical industry, rubber 5.9 Food 17.7Wood and paper industry 3.4 Chemical industry, rubber 16.5

Metals, precious stones and products

thereof

17.0 Metals, precious stones and products

thereof

7.7

Machinery, equipment and means of

transportation

5.6 Textile and clothing 4.0

Tajikistan Cotton fibre 15.8 Petroleum products 9.5

Electricity 5.8 Grain and flour 5.7

Electricity 4.4

Natural gas 2.0

Turkmenistan* Mineral products 81.0 Machinery and mechanical appliances 33.3

Textiles and textile articles 11.1 Non-precious metals and articles made of

non-precious metal

14.2

Products of the chemical industry,

polymetric materials

1.6 Products of chemical industry, polymeric

materials, plastics and products of thereof

13.2

Means of transportation 12.2

Prepared foodstuffs, beverages and

tobacco

6.1

Ukraine Base metals and preparations thereof 41.0 Mineral products 32.0

Mineral products 13.7 Machines, electrical and technical

equipment

17.6

Agricultural products and food industry 12.6 Transport facilities 8.9

Chemical industry 8.7 Chemical industry 8.6

Machines, electrical and technical

equipment

8.3 Agricultural products and food industry 7.4

Uzbekistan** Cotton-fiber 18.1 Machines and equipment 46.0

Fossil energy carriers 12.4 Chemical and rubber products 12.5

Ferrous and non-ferrous metals 8.6 Ferrous and non-ferrous metals 10.3

Machines and equipment 7.4 Foodstuffs 6.8

Chemical and rubber products 4.7 Fossil energy carriers 2.1

*2003 data. **2004 data. Source: National Statistical Services

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7. Solvency & liquidity indicators

Foreign exchange reserves

Scarce apart from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan

CIS FX reserves & crude oil spot price

Oil prices have caused surge in FX reserves

Fiscal balance

Small deficits or surpluses prevail

Total public debt

Public debt quite low apart from Kyrgyzstan

Total external debt

Generally low with some exceptionsExternal short-term debt

Belarus & Moldova not covered by FX reserves

0 5 10 15 20 25

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2000

Int. reserves excl. gold, USD bn

Sources: IMF IFS, Global Insight

295.6

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

1996

% of GDP


0 100 200 300 400 500

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2000

% of FX reserves

Sources: IMF IFS, Global Insight, DB Research

-5 0 5 10

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2000

2006

% of GDP

Sources: DB Research and other sources

0 20 40 60 80 100

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

Mean 2000-2005

% of GDP

Source: DB Research

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Russia (left)

Kazakhstan (left)

Urals spot price, USD/bbl (right)


Int. reserves excl. gold, USD bn

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8. FDI and real exchange rates

Inward FDI stock

Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine dominate

Outward FDI stock

Russia and Azerbaijan dominate

FDI inflows

Mainly on the rise

FDI outflows

Russia exhibits strong outward investment

Inward FDI stock

Georgia exhibits largest increaseOutward FDI stock

Not significant apart from Azerbaijan and Russia

0 10 20 30 40

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2000

USD bn

Source: UNCTAD WIR

198

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Ukraine

2006

2000

USD bn

Source: UNCTAD WIR

20

157

4.3

-600 0 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 3,000

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

TajikistanTurkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2005

USD m

Source: UNCTAD WIR

5,203

7,808

28,732

12,766

6,143

-601

-500 0 500 1000 1500

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2005

USD m

Source: UNCTAD WIR

12,763

17,979

0 20 40 60 80 100

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2000

% of GDP

Source: UNCTAD WIR

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Ukraine

2006

2000

% of GDP

Source: UNCTAD WIR

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10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

AMD BYR GEL

KGS* MDL

2000=100

*Only annual data available. Sources: IFS, DB Research

Resource poor: Real effective exchange rate

Only Belarus shows depreciation trend

Resource rich: Real effective exchange rate

Russia exhibits sharpest appreciation

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

AZN KZT RUB UAH

2000=100

Sources: IFS, DB Research

8. FDI & real exchange rates

FDI flows as % of fixed capital formation

Important for most of CIS

Oil and gas production of foreign companies

Russia exhibits very low share

Number of cross-border M&As

Still low outside Russia and UkraineValue of cross-border M&As

One large deal boosted Ukraine in 2005

-10 40 90 140

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2005

% of gross fixed captial fomation in %

Source: UNCTAD WIR

0 20 40 60 80

Venezuela

Uzbekistan

Russia

United Arab Emirates

Quatar

Nigeria

Kazakhstan

Angola

Indonesia

Share, %, 2005

Source: UNCTAD WIR

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

MoldovaRussia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2005

Number of deals

*The data cover only those deals that involved an acquisition of an equity stake

of more than 10%. Source: UNCTAD WIR

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Armenia

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

2005

Sales in USD m

*The data cover only those deals that involved an acquisition of an equity stake

of more than 10%. Source: UNCTAD WIR

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9. Nominal exchange rates

Armenia: Dram vs. US dollar

Inflation targeting and capital inflows boost Dram

Azerbaijan: Manat vs. US dollar

Oil revenues and FDI driving up Manat

Kazakhstan: Tenge vs. US dollar

Oil revenues put appreciation pressure on Tenge

Kyrgyzstan: Som vs. US dollar

Remittances & aid bolster Som

Belarus: Ruble vs. US dollar

USD as exchange rate anchor since 2004Georgia: Lari vs. US dollar

FX inflows and remittances lead to appreciation

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: Bloomberg

AMD vs USD

0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

AZN vs USD

Source: Bloomberg

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

BYR vs USD

Source: Bloomberg

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

GEL vs USD

Source: Bloomberg

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

KZT vs USD

Source: Bloomberg

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

KGS vs USD

Source: Bloomberg

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10. Money, banking & financial markets

Policy interest rate

Rates have converged in recent years

Policy interest rate

Rates have declined and converged

5Y CDS spreads

Global factors dominate fluctuations

Stock market index

Impressive rally, especially in Kazakhstan

3M interest rate

Decline untill 2004, mixed picture afterwards3M interest rate

Mainly in decline since 2001

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Azerbaijan Kazakhstan

Russia Ukraine

Source: IFS

% p.a.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Belarus Armenia Tajikistan

Source: IFS

% p.a.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Russia

% p.a.


0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Armenia Kyrgyzstan Moldova

% p.a.


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2006 2007

Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine

Basis points

Source: DB Global Markets

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2005 2006 2007

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Russia (left) Ukraine (left)

Kazakhstan (right)

Index, Jan 2005=100

Source: Bloomberg

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11. Labour force, social indicators & infrastructure

Workforce, ages 15-64

Demographics pose a challenge

Unemployment rate

Rates declined slightly, Turkmenistan stands out

Road network

Infrastructure still poor in some CIS

Electric power losses

Still high in CIS, especially in KGZ and MDA

Life expectancy

Mixed progressTertiary school enrolment

Widespread progress

55 65 75

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2005

2050

Source: UN World Population Prospects

% of total population

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2006

1996


%

55 60 65 70 75

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2005

1992

Years

Source: WDI

0 20 40 60 80

Armenia*

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

KyrgyzstanMoldova

Russia**

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan**

2005

1991

% of relevant age group

Source: WDI

*1999 instead of 1991, **2004 instead of 2005

0 10 20 30 40

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia


Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Electric power transmission & distribution losses,

% of output, 2004

Source: WDI

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia


Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Source: WDI

Roads, paved (% of total roads)

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12. Governance indicators*

Voice and accountability*

Regress outside Georgia, Kyrgyzstan & Ukraine

Political stability*

Progress in some CIS, regress in others

Rule of law*

Hardly any progress

Corruption*

A serious concern

Government effectiveness*

Progress in most countriesRegulatory quality*

Belarus, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan lag behind

0 1 2 3 4 5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Germany

2006

2000

Source: WBGI

*Note: The six government indicators are measured in units ranging form about -2.5 to 2.5, with higher values corresponding to better governanceoutcomes. Data have been rescaled to 0-5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Germany

2006

2000

Source: WBGI

0 1 2 3 4 5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Germany

2006

2000

Source: WDI

0 1 2 3 4 5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

UkraineUzbekistan

Germany

2006

2000

Source: WDI

0 1 2 3 4 5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

UkraineUzbekistan

Germany

2006

2000

Source: WDI

0 1 2 3 4 5

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Germany

2006

2000

Source: WBGI

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13. Doing business indicators

Number of start-up procedures*

Georgia requires fewest procedures

Days to start a business

Belarus and Tajikistan lag behind

Years to resolve insolvency

Longest duration in Belarus

Rigidity of employment index

Georgia ahead of most of CIS

Investor protection index

Tajikistan lags far behindDays to enforce a contract

Longest duration in Moldova and Ukraine

0 3 6 9 12 15

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2007

Source: Doing Business Indicators, World Bank

*Including interactions required to obtain necessary permits and licenses and to complete all registrations, verifications and notifications to start operations.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

2007


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

KyrgyzstanMoldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan


2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

TajikistanUkraine

Uzbekistan

2007


0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

TajikistanUkraine

Uzbekistan

(0=less rigid to 100=more rigid), 2007


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0 2 4 6 8 10

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Moldova

Russia

Tajikistan

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Index, 2007 (0 to 10, higher values imply more protection)




Abbreviations

Country codes

AE = United Arab EmiratesAZ = AzerbaijanBE = Belgium

CH = SwitzerlandCN = ChinaDE = GermanyGB = United KingdomKR = KoreaKZ = KazakhstanIL = IsraelIT = ItalyIR = IranNL = NetherlandsPL = PolandRO = RomaniaRU = RussiaTR = TurkeyUA = UkraineUZ = Uzbekistan

Abbreviations

BGR = Bundesamt fuer GeowissenschaftenBP = British Petroleum Statistical Review 2007DOTS = Direction of Trade Statistics (IMF)

EBRD = European Bank for Reconstruction and DevelopmentGFSR = Global Financial Stability Report (IMF)IMF = International Monetary FundIFS = International Financial Statistics (IMF)WEO = World Economic Outlook (IMF)SWP = Stiftung Wissenschaft und PolitikUNCTAD = United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentWBGI = World Bank Governance IndicatorsWDI = World Development Indicators (World Bank)WIR = World Investment Report (UNCTAD)

© Copyright 2007. Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research, D-60262 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “DeutscheBank Research”.The above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of theauthor, which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice.Opinions expressed may differ from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Deutsche Bank. The above information isprovided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as tothe correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information given or the assessments made.In Germany this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, authorised by Bundesanstalt fürFinanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member ofthe London Stock Exchange regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK. This information isdistributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche BankAG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this information is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Limited, Tokyo Branch. In Australia, retailclients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS

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